Archive for August, 2012

There’s a distinction to be made between the terms “power hitter” and “hitter with power.”

The former typically lives and dies with three true outcomes — maybe only two if they lack discipline. Adam Dunn perfectly represents this group, a hitter who would be nothing without his ability to mash the ball 500 feet. Jose Bautista has other skills, but driving fly balls out of the park tends to define his performance. Other examples include Carlos Pena, Russell Branyan, Mark Reynolds.

And then you have the hitters with power. These are the guys the scouts note for their “hit tool” first and their mammoth power second. They can do it all — make contact, draw a few walks, and it just so happens that when they make contact the ball goes pretty far too. Think David Wright, Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, Robinson Cano, Ryan Braun.

Prince Fielder broke into the majors as a power hitter. He struck out often thanks to his uppercut, all-or-nothing swing. But over the last few years, we’ve seen him reshape himself as a hitter with power.

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After last night’s victory over the Mariners, the Orioles announced they were calling up top prospect Manny Machado from Double-A and giving him the third base job for the stretch run. Wilson Betemit hasn’t been a total disaster, posting a 100 wRC+ in 356 plate appearances, but he’s one of the worst defensive players in baseball and is dreadful against lefties, so moving him into a 1B/DH platoon isn’t a bad use of his skills.

The promotion is still a bit of a surprise, however, as Machado is a teenager whose numbers in Double-A don’t suggest that he’s ready to start hitting Major League pitching right away. A .266/.352/.438 line isn’t all that different from what Betemit is doing, and of course Machado is posting that line against inferior pitching. But, despite the mediocre looking slash line, there are reasons to think that Machado might be more ready for the big leagues than the raw numbers suggest.

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Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Rousing Facts About No. 9 Hitters
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Rousing Facts About No. 9 Hitters
Regarding Dan Straily’s Wednesday Start, One Thing About It
The attentive reader will likely be aware by now that Oakland right-hander and emitter of soft, warm light Dan Straily’s Wednesday start was not — neither in the strictest sense of the phrase, nor even in the more liberal sense of it — was not what one’d call a “rousing success.” While he (i.e. Straily) managed to post a 5:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio for the game, he also only induced two grounders of the 16 batted-balls he conceded (box). That he allowed four home runs is likely the product of unusually bad luck/bad pitches, but none of the home runs was decidedly cheap, either.

Regarding Dan Straily’s Wednesday Start, Another Thing
The other thing about Dan Straily’s Wednesday start is that there will be no further discussion of it in this edition of the Notes — except insofar as to how it relates to the home run he (i.e. Straily) conceded to Chris Iannetta.

Regarding Chris Iannetta’s Home Run
After Chris Iannetta’s second-inning home run, the Oakland television broadcast team suggested something to the effect that conceding a homer to the No. 9 hitter is an unfortunate thing to have happen. While likely true, it’s also the case that Chris Iannetta is not a very typical No. 9 hitter. Indeed, he’s posted a career 100 OPS+ (and a 101 wRC+), while the average No. 9 hitter in the American League has posted a 76 OPS+ this season, for example — and posted the exact same figure last year.

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Melky Cabrera is having a career-year. After posting 4.2 WAR last year, Cabrera has once again been effective. The 27-year-old outfielder has already passed that total this season, accumulating 4.8 WAR so far.

Cabrera’s performance comes at a great time for him. At the end of the season, he can become a free-agent. And it looks like he’ll have a chance to hit the market, since the San Francisco Giants have put off negotiations with him until then. Cabrera’s two-year breakout is also interesting since he’s never produced like this before. All of those factors make Cabrera one of the most unique players to hit the market in quite some time. Because of that, no one is really sure how much he’ll make.

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Ben and Sam discuss Manny Machado’s surprising promotion to the majors and Roy Oswalt’s tumultuous transition to the bullpen.

The Brewers current rotation might be the most fascinating group in baseball at the moment. With Chris Narveson and Shaun Marcum on the DL and Zack Greinke in Anaheim, the team has had to turn to three unproven big league starters to fill out their rotation – Mike Fiers, Marco Estrada, and Mark Rogers. Generally, when you move a guy from the bullpen to the rotation and call up two kids from the minors, the results aren’t great, but Fiers, Estrada, and Rogers have been fantastic, and the team hasn’t seen a real drop-off by going with the kids.

Fiers has gotten the most attention, as he’s run off nine straight starts with at least six innings pitched while allowing two runs or fewer, posting a 1.03 ERA over that 61 inning stretch. And, certainly, Fiers story deserves to be told, especially considering his 88 mph fastball and general lack of pedigree as any kind of top prospect. His eye-popping 5/1 K/BB ratio without big time stuff has made him a central topic of discussion, and rightfully so. However, when I was looking at the list of guys who have posted similar statistical seasons to Fiers, I couldn’t help but notice that Estrada was on that list too.

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On Tuesday evening, 39-year-old Bartolo Colon handcuffed the Los Angeles Angels for seven innings, only surrendering a single unearned run in his final inning of work.

Although that unearned run ended his consecutive scoreless inning streak at 22.1 innings, he does currently maintain a streak of 22.2 innings without surrendering an earned run. The last earned run given up by the right-hander came on a solo home run by the Yankees’ Curtis Granderson on July 22 in Oakland. Since that home run … nothing.

Extended stints without allowing an earned run are not uncommon in Major League Baseball. After all, Ryan Dempster threw 33-consecutive innings without surrendering an earned or unearned run in July.

Instead, the intriguing aspect of Colon’s streak lies in his pitch selection and how he is finding success on the mound.

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One of the more enjoyable parts of the annual Top 15 prospects lists that I do at FanGraphs is unearthing and writing about new, unpolished prospect gems. As a result, I added an extra player to each Top 15 list during the pre-2012 series and highlighted a “sleeper prospect” that did not make it into the featured group.

The minor league regular season ends in less than a month and the 2013 Top 15 prospect lists are already forming in my mind so I though it would be a good time to reflect back on my collection of sleepers and see how many of them woke up.

Dalton Pompey, OF, Toronto Blue Jays: Pompey, 19, was assigned to short-season Vancouver to begin 2012 and was looking good (20.5 BB%, 172 wRC+) before a broken hamate bone in his left wrist wiped out his season after just 11 games.

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Lyle Overbay is available. The 35-year-old was designated for assignment July 31 by the Diamondbacks, a move that set him to clear waivers Friday and become a free agent should no team take him off Arizona’s hands.

It’s understandable why the Diamondbacks let Overbay go. He only mustered two hits in his final 25 at-bats for the team as Paul Goldschmidt established himself as the everyday first baseman. No platoon necessary there, and with 40-man roster spots required to make deadline math work out, Overbay was out.

But even with his brutal finish, Overbay hit .292/.367/.449 (112 wRC+) for the Diamondbacks and has a three-year line of .248/.330/.413 (100 wRC+). Average hitters are scarce in August. Can Overbay still impact a playoff race?

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