Archive for August, 2012

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. An Amendment to Friday’s Notes in re Curveballs and Movement
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

An Amendment to Friday’s Notes in re Curveballs and Movement
What the Author Is Amending
In yesterday’s edition of the Notes, the author presented a table of what he called — in a flaccid attempt to be amusing, no doubt — what he called the “movingest” curveballs in the major leagues this year. To find the total movement of the the league’s curveballs, however, the author merely added the absolute value of every pitcher’s average horizontal movement on the curveball to the absolute value of the vertical movement of his curveball.

How the Author Should Have Found Total Movement, Probably
In point of fact, the author probably should have found the square root of the sum of the squared horizontal and vertical measurements — as humans have been doing for ca. 2500 years, that is.

Regarding This Oversight, To Whom the Author Apologizes About It
The author apologizes to the readership for this oversight, to Kyle Weiland (whose curveball displaces Brett Myers’s atop the leaderboard), and to Pythagoras of Samos.

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The playoffs of the nation’s premier collegiate summer wood-bat league, the Cape Cod Baseball League, began Thursday night. Along with the end of the regular season come the league’s various awards — and one player, left-hander Sean Manaea of both Hyannis and Indiana State, has won not only the league’s Top Pitcher Award but also its Outstanding Pro Prospect Award.

Manaea was excellent this summer, posting an 85:7 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 51.2 innings for Hyannis over nine appearances (including eight starts). Those numbers are preposterous as they sound: the next most strikeouts recorded was Ryan Connnolly’s total of 56 in 51.1 innings. Nor was Manaea’s dominance merely a product of polish or deception: according to the whole internet, he was sitting at 92-96 mph this summer and topping out at 98. There’s now every indication, provided he remains healthy, that Manaea will go in the first round of the 2013 draft.

It certainly seems as though being recognized as the best college prospect in a league that has, of late, produced ca. 200 draftees per year and generally has about 200-250 active alumni in the majors — it certainly seems as though that sort of thing would indicate future success. “How much future success?” one might wonder — or, like the author, wondered slightly earlier this afternoon.

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Via Yahooo’s Jeff Passan:

While Mike Rizzo wouldn’t pin down a number, he said Stephen Strasburg will not exceed 180 innings.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) August 10, 2012

While the Nationals have been saying publicly for a while that they were going to take precautions with Stephen Strasburg, this is the firmest comment yet on just where the line is going to be drawn. The team shut down Jordan Zimmermann after 160 innings last year, so that had been where most guesses were falling, but it sounds like Strasburg will get to make two or three more starts than his teammate did a year ago.

Just doing the basic math, Strasburg is at 127 innings right now, leaving him 53 innings before he gets to 180. Strasburg is averaging 5.8 innings per start, so on his current trajectory, that would leave him with nine more starts this season. The Nationals have 50 games remaining on their schedule, so sticking with a five man rotation and not skipping the 5th starter would leave each member of the rotation with 10 more turns. Without alteration, this limit would essentially take Strasburg to the final week of the regular season, and he’d simply skip his final regular season start and watch the playoffs as a spectator.

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Lee Judge’s blog, Judging the Royals is, well, interestimg. I would have titled it Mock Scout with Lee J., but, surprisingly, I was not asked for my thoughts on the matter. I always imagined my first FanGraphs post on Judge would be for NotGraphs, and I suppose there is still time for that. However, if one can look past the Ron Polk Point System (Hey, Alex Gordon finally passed Eric Hosmer this week!), Judge’s “critical” stance, and other things, there is actually some good stuff in his posts about how players and coaches view the game.

However, today I do not want to focus so much on Judge as something from his comments after last night’s Royals versus Orioles match-up regarding our old friend Jeff Francoeur:

Jeff Francoeur doubled to right in the third, continuing his trend of taking the ball the other way since doing extra work with Kevin Seitzer. Last season Jeff did a better job of getting a pitch out over the plate, and he hit .285, 47 doubles, 4 triples, 20 home runs and had 87 RBIs. Getting back to that approach was part of the message he received during his benching, so seeing Francoeur hit balls hard the other way is a good sign that he’s getting back to last year’s approach.

The first thing I thought of was the Mets’ Tony Bernazard-spearheaded experiment a few seasons go with going to the opposite field more often, which Jack Moore analyzed when it was first reported. Judge does not say whether or not Kevin Seitzer ripped off his shirt and challenged Francoeur to a fight during Francoeur’s (miraculous) benching to work on his approach. Is there any fire to go with Judge’s smoke?

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When Doug Fister broke into the big leagues, he was a soft-tossing, pitch-to-contact change-up artist, who threw strikes with mediocre stuff and projected as a back-of-the-rotation innings eater or a bullpen guy. He wasn’t bad, but the lack of a quality breaking ball and his reliance on his change as an out-pitch meant that he didn’t have anything to strike out right-handed batters with, and he wasn’t generating as many groundballs as you’d expect from a 6’8 guy with good command. Over his first year and change in the big leagues in 2009-2010, he was basically the definition of average, running a 102 ERA-/99 FIP-/99 xFIP- in 232 innings. He limited walks and avoided home runs, so he looked like any member of the Twins rotation over the prior 10 years. Nothing wrong with that, but certainly not a lot of upside beyond strike-throwing middle-of-the-rotation guy.

Then, last year, Fister began to change. His velocity picked up, and instead of topping out at 91-92, he started hitting 93-94 with regularity. By the end of 2011, his average fastball was over 90 mph, up two full ticks over his 2010 average. At the same time, he began to rely less on his fastball/change-up combo, and increased his breaking ball usage, especially against right-handed batters. The increased velocity and pitch mix led to a spike in his strikeout rate, which jumped from 12.9% to 16.7%. In fact, he ended the year with a 28% strikeout rate in September, looking nothing like the pitch-to-contact guy who showed up a few years earlier.

This year, the velocity has regressed back to previous norms — perhaps due to a costochondral strain that landed him on the DL twice — but the strikeout rate has still taken yet another leap forward. Once again, Fister has reduced his reliance on his fastball, and now he’s featuring his curve ball more than ever before. In his start against the Yankees yesterday, he snapped 25 curveballs, 15 of which went for strikes. This big bending curve has now become his #2 pitch, and its effectiveness has been the driving force beyond his second drastic increase in strikeout rate.

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Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Finding: Baseball’s Movingest Curve
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Finding: Baseball’s Movingest Curve
A Question a Sad Person Might Ask
Tyler Chatwood starts tonight for Colorado, which, for most reasonable people, is rightly regarded as “Neither here nor there” so far as life events are concerned. Of note, however, is that Chatwood’s curveball is inducing grounders at a rate of 73.3% in a smallish sample — considerably higher than the league average of ca. 50% on that same pitch. “Why is Chatwood’s curve inducing so many grounders?” is a question that at least one person — one sad and lonely and sad person — might ask himself, alone at a computer, drinking a magnum of chablis all by himself on (hypothetically speaking) a Thursday night in August.

Not the Answer to That Question
The answer to the above-asked question is not “Because Tyler Chatwood’s curveball has more movement on it than every other pitcher’s.” However, in trying to answer that question, a sad and lonely and sad person will find himself answering another question — namely, “Which pitcher’s curveball does have the most movement on it?”

The Answer to That Second Question
The answer to that second question is “Brett Myers’s.”*

*Or, actually, as commenter Josh notes below, maybe it’s “Kyle Weiland.”

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Ben Revere and Anthony Rizzo are distinctly different hitters, but they have a few things in common. Most notable is the fact that they are rising stars: Revere with the Minnesota Twins; Rizzo with the Chicago Cubs. Another is that they each credit a minor-league hitting coach for helping them turn the corner.

Revere, a 24-year-old outfielder, is following up a so-so rookie campaign (.267/.310/.309) with a breakout season. His slashing left-handed swing has produced a .325/.356/.382 line, as well as a 21-game hit streak that came to end Wednesday night.

Rizzo, a 23-year-old first baseman, is emerging as a big-time power threat in his first year with the Cubs. He hit just .141/.281/.242 in his rookie season with the Padres, but in 154 plate appearances with his new team, he’s hitting .301/.344/.524, with nine home runs.

——

Ben Revere: “When I first got up here, I was doing alright, but then I kind of dropped off. Going into the off-season, I wasn’t satisfied. I batted .260 and, really, that’s not the kind of player I am. Usually, I’m a .300 hitter. I needed to focus on trying to find the swing I had when I was driving balls up the gaps for doubles and triples.

“Last year, I was rounding up a bunch of balls. I was coming around them and getting jammed. I watched film of myself, and coming up through the minors, I had my hands higher. When I went back down to Triple-A [this year], I told my hitting coach, Tom Brunansky, what was wrong, and we did some drills. Now I’m keeping my hands higher, so that I can go down and stay through the ball — instead of having them low where I come around and get jammed on fastballs right down the middle and a little bit inside.

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Ben and Sam discuss two players exceeding all expectations in 2012: R.A. Dickey and Eric Chavez.

Chien-Ming Wang suffered another injury setback yesterday, as continuing hip soreness forced the Nationals to pull him from his rehab assignment. He’s only 32, but he’s pitched a grand total of 223 innings in the last five years, and even if he returns to pitch meaningful innings for the Nationals this year or for another team next year, it’s looking increasingly likely that the bulk of his career is already behind him. So it might be appropriate to look at the career he’s already had, as the best Taiwanese player in major league history, and possibly the best Asian pitcher born outside Japan to come to the Major Leagues.
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