Archive for August, 2012

Episode 225
FanGraphs managing editor Dave Cameron, as per usual, makes his weekly appearance on FanGraphs Audio and analyzes all baseball.

Discussed:
• Cameron’s verbal fisticuffs with The Book’s Mitchel Lichtman at the recent Saber Seminar.
• The Rays, how they’re first in the AL Wild Card and have Jeff Keppinger.
• The best places to live for seeing prospects.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 37 min. play time.)

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The first time the D-backs lost Daniel Hudson to injury, it seemed like it would be a big blow to their playoff hopes, but Wade Miley stepped in and opened people’s eyes. When he went down the second time, it seemed like it would really put Arizona in a bind, as while Miley was by then a rotation fixture, Joe Saunders was out of action as well. Neither Josh Collmenter not touted prospect Trevor Bauer were able to get the job done, but the void has been filled quite amply as of late by left-hander Patrick Corbin.

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Mike Napoli was, at least at the time, an under-discussed portion of not only one of the worst trades of recent times, but also the puzzling follow-up trade in which the Jays sent Napoli to the Rangers for reliever Frank Francisco. Even given that at the time Napoli was not projected to be the monster he turned to be in 2011, that seems really weird given that his hitting style seemed to fit right into the type of sluggers the Jays love to collect.

In any case, after dealing with injury issues early in the year Napoli turned into one of the great stories of the 2011 season, as he not only hit for great power even by his previous standard, but significantly upped his average (by cutting his strikeout rate and boosting his BABIP) to finish the season with a .320/.414/.631 (144 wRC+) line that rivaled Josh Hamilton’s from 2010.

Even given reasonable expectations for regression, Napoli’s 2012 has been disappointing. While he has dealt with health issues this season, going on the disabled list this weekend after trying to play through an injury, Napoli has never really gotten going in 2012. After a career best wRC+ in 2011, Napoli currently has a seasonal career worst 105 wRC+. The easy thing would be to simply point to average on balls in play dropping back closer to his pre-2011 rates, but the issues go beyond that. His drop in power is particularly interesting.

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Last night, on the Sunday Night Baseball telecast of the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets, announcer Dan Shulman facilitated a discussion surrounding relievers and the Cy Young Award.

Quite simply, should Aroldis Chapman and Craig Kimbrel be considered legitimate candidates for the NL Cy Young Award this season?

Relievers possess a difficult time making noise in the Cy Young Award voting because they do not throw nearly as many innings as starting pitchers. Fewer innings equal fewer opportunities to make an impact and provide value to one’s baseball team. This sentiment was largely echoed by Orel Hershiser and Buster Olney on the Sunday Night Baseball broadcast.

The topic of relievers and the Cy Young Award seems to surface annually. This season, however, the conversation has become more earnest because Chapman and Kimbrel are compiling video game numbers on the mound. Just look at how dominant both have been for their respective teams, prior to Sunday’s games:

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On Tuesday, Tampa Bay activated Evan Longoria from the disabled list; they haven’t lost since. This correlation between Longoria’s return and the team’s six game winning streak seems a bit flukey when you see his .261/.308/.304 line since coming off the DL and note that the’s not healthy enough to play the field yet, so he’s not producing any defensive value either. However, Longoria’s return has produced something of a chain reaction that has helped the team run off six straight victories, and bodes well for their ability to stay in contention down the stretch.

With Longoria manning the DH spot, the Rays had to find a spot to put Jeff Keppinger, who has quietly been one of the Rays best offensive weapons this year. Since he’s a lousy glove guy, it’s easier to hide him at third base than second base, so they installed Keppinger at third and shifted Ryan Roberts over to second base. That closes off second base for Ben Zobrist, so over the weekend, Joe Maddon decided to give Zobrist another shot at shortstop, playing him on the left side of second base for the first time since 2009.

It’s an idea that the Rays should probably stick with, as Elliot Johnson and Sean Rodriguez have been offensive black holes that have dragged the team down all year. Zobrist isn’t a classic shortstop, but defensive metrics have loved his work at second base over the last four years, and it’s unlikely that he’s capable of being a terrific defensive second baseman while being completely unable to handle shortstop. He might not be a great defender there, but the offensive upgrade that is created by opening up a line-up spot for either Keppinger or Roberts in lieu of Johnson or Rodriguez is substantial.

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Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Parallel Universe: Every Team Minus Its Best Player
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Parallel Universe: Every Team Minus Its Best Player
Regarding Parallel Universe, Its Definition
Parallel universe is defined in Webster’s Dictionary as a “hypothetical self-contained separate reality in which Biff Tannen has become wealthy and corrupted, and changed Hill Valley into a chaotic dystopia.”

Regarding Parallel Universe, Another Possible Definition
Another possible definition of parallel universe is “a reality not entirely unlike the present one, except in which every major-league team’s best player has been replaced by a freely available one instead.”

Regarding That Second Definition
What this edition of the Notes considers is that second, less common definition of parallel universe.

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Doug Fister believes in keeping things simple. The Detroit Tigers right-hander isn’t big on statistics, nor does he rely much on scouting reports. What he does do is play cat-and-mouse with opposing hitters: He changes speeds and pounds the bottom of the strike zone. He also gets results. Since coming to Detroit from Seattle at last year’s trade deadline, the 28-year-old Fresno State product has logged a 2.81 ERA and won 14 games.

Fister talked about his approach during a recent visit to Fenway Park.

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Fister: “My approach is to stick with what I do. For me, it’s about knowing what my skills are and what my job is. My effort level is a big thing, but it’s mostly a matter of using the tools that I have to the best of my ability. I need to keep the ball down in the zone, have late movement on my fastball and try to get early contact.

“Things kind of clicked in 2009. I started out the year in Double-A and then quickly worked my way to Triple-A. I was in the bullpen at the time and it was just a matter of focusing on commanding the strike zone. Not just throwing strikes, but commanding the strike zone. Again, just working on getting bad contact.

“I had a few good pitching coaches, but really, it was me realizing who I am, and coming to terms with that. I’m the same pitcher now that I have been. There are obviously little things here and there that we fine-tune — you kind of tweak all the time — but for the most part, I’m the same guy. Nothing changed when I came to Detroit. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben and Sam discuss the impact of CC Sabathia’s elbow soreness on the Yankees’ short- and long-term outlooks, and the difference between winning a division and winning a wild card under the new playoff format.

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Featured Game: Oakland at Chicago AL, 14:10 ET
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Featured Game: Oakland at Chicago AL, 14:10 ET
On What’s Happening in This Game
What’s happening in this game is the Oakland lineup — the Oakland lineup that features terrifying right-handed batters like Chris Carter (121 PA, 184 wRC+, .310 BABIP) and Yoenis Cespedes (328 PA, 144 wRC+, .358 BABIP) and Jonny Gomes (248 PA, 137 wRC+, .339 BABIP) — is once again facing a left-handed pitcher, in this case sling-shotting PYT Chris Sale (132.0 IP, 80 xFIP-, 3.9 WAR).

What the Author Would Assume
The author would assume that, owing to presence of the aforementioned and terrifying right-handed batters, that the Oakland lineup will have been — were one to examine the numbers — will have been particularly productive against left-handed pitchers.

What’s Actually the Case
In point of fact, it appears as though the Oakland offense has exhibited almost no platoon split whatsoever. Regard:

Vs. RHP: 2870 PA, 90 wRC+, .270 BABIP
Vs. LHP: 1440 PA, 92 wRC+, .280 BABIP

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