Archive for December, 2012

Josh Hamilton Whiffing: an Investigation of Concerns

Yesterday, in a surprising yet also entirely unsurprising maneuver, the Angels came out of left field (baseball term) to sign free-agent Josh Hamilton to a five-year contract, worth $125 million. Other high-profile free agents have just recently signed — Ryan Dempster! Anibal Sanchez! — but Hamilton was the big fish, and he’s the guy most people are thinking about. He’s been one of the league’s biggest bats, and he signed with the Angels instead of re-signing with the rival Rangers, as was expected. No move sends actual shock waves, but if certain moves were to send shock waves, this would have been among them.

There are almost countless reasons to be worried about Hamilton’s short- and long-term future. There’s a reason why everybody else was unwilling to guarantee five years, and there’s a reason this decision was apparently made over Jerry Dipoto’s head. A lot of people are worried that Hamilton could have an addiction relapse. A lot of people are worried that Hamilton’s body could break down, as he’s shown signs of physical fragility. At least one person is probably worried that Hamilton could morph into a butterfly and then what would the Angels do with a $25-million butterfly? What worries me, though, and what we’ve talked about here already, is Hamilton’s contact rate. For Josh Hamilton, 2012 was the most recent season, and it was a puzzling season.

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A Look at Workhorse Pitchers

Earlier this week, in the aftermath of the big Royals-Rays trade centered around Wil Myers and James Shields, Dave Cameron wrote about the perception of relative risk with respect to veterans and top prospects. One issue in this case is the supposed reliability of a “workhorse” pitcher like James Shields. Dave rightly pointed out that although prospects are risky, there is risk associated with any player, even a supposedly reliable pitcher. I wanted to look a bit more closely at these workhorse pitchers. After a number of seasons of 200 or more innings, how many innings do such pitchers put up in the subsequent seasons?

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Peter Bourjos is Cameron Maybin

In yesterday’s post about the fallout from the Josh Hamilton signing, I noted that the Angels could use Peter Bourjos as a pretty attractive trade chip, and predictably, a decent amount of people responded that Bourjos is nothing more than a fourth outfielder or defensive replacement because he can’t hit. This sentiment has been around for a while, since Bourjos came up and hit .204/.237/.381 as a rookie in 2010, and Bourjos didn’t exactly light the world on fire last year either.

However, I think it’s worth noting that there’s another center fielder in baseball with basically the exact same offensive skillset and overall performance as Bourjos, and he seems to be doing just fine down in San Diego.

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Marc Hulet Prospects Chat – 12/14/12


A Different Take On The Dodgers’ Spending Spree

The Dodgers are rich. Very rich. After spending $2.15 billion to buy the team, the new owners have opened the checkbook again and again and again. First, in the trade with the Red Sox that netted Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford and Nick Punto. Next with the winning bid for Korean pitcher Hyun-Jin Ryu. Then with the free-agent signings of Zack Greinke and Brandon League — and the contract for Ryu.

Over on his blog, my colleague Mike Petriello estimates the Dodgers’ current commitments for 2013 at $246.9 million. That figure includes deferred payments still owed to Manny Ramirez, Andruw Jones and Hiroki Kuroda, but excludes Ryu’s $25.73 million posting fee. Salaries for A.J. Ellis and Ronald Belisario — who are entering their first year of arbitration — still need to be added. And perhaps the Dodgers make another small move here or there. But let’s not quibble over pennies.

Instead, let’s assume the Dodgers’ Opening Day payroll is $250 million. A nice, big, round number. A quarter-of-a-billion dollars. Unprecedented, right? Blows anything the Yankees have ever done out of the water, correct? The most the Yankees ever spent on an Opening Day payroll was $209 million, back in 2008. But you can’t just compare $250 million spent in 2013 to $209 million spent in 2008 without adjusting for inflation. That’s not how money works. The value changes over time. Let’s take a look.

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Daily Notes, Ft. Vince Belnome News Informations

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. News Information: Tampa Bay Acquires Belnome in Trade
2. Other News Information: Cubs Sign Korean Closer Lim, Seems Like
3. SCOUT Leaderboards: Australian Baseball League

News Information: Tampa Bay Acquires Belnome in Trade
Tampa Bay traded left-handed reliever Chris Rearick, 25, on Thursday to San Diego in exchange for mostly infield-type and 24-year-old Vince Belnome, reports Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times. A brief inspection of Rearick’s player page here at the site reveals that his numbers are rather interesting (including an 85:23 K:BB, for example, in 70.0 IP this past season), but that both his first and last names are of a decidedly less Mediterranean extraction than the Rays’ new acquisition. Slightly further inspection reveals that Belnome received a rather optimistic hitting projection courtesy ZiPS last offseason (although never made it to the majors). Bated breath, is the thing with which the author is awaiting Belnome’s 2013 projections.

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Q&A: Taijuan Walker, High-Ceiling Mariner

Taijuan Walker is more than the top pitching prospect in the Seattle Mariners organization. The 20-year-old right-hander is among the best in the game. With only 126 innings under his belt he remains a work in progress, but his ceiling is sky high.

A two-sport star at Yucaipa (California) High School — he also excelled in basketball — the 6-foot-4 Walker was taken 43rd overall in the 2010 draft. Blessed with athleticism and aptitude, as well as a mid-to-high-90s fastball, he profiles as a front-line starter.

Walker talked about his repertoire, which includes a newly-added pitch, during the Southern League playoffs.

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Walker on his changeup: “My changeup has gotten a lot better since spring training and the end of last year. I’m comfortable throwing it in any count now. I’ve made really big strides with it.

“It’s just a regular straight change, a four-seam circle. I’ve tried many grips and this is pretty much the comfortable one and the one I like. Plus, I throw a lot of four-seam fastballs, so a four-seam changeup is going to benefit me more.

“You have to throw it like your fastball. You have to keep the same arm speed and let the grip do all the work. Sometimes I’ll throw it a little too hard, but I’m mostly been pleased with it. It ranges anywhere between 84 and 90, and I get a little downward movement and some arm-side run. Not a lot, but just enough.”

On his curveball and feel: “This year I didn’t really trust my curveball, so I kind of got away from it. I just wasn’t confident in it. In my last couple of starts, it’s been much better though. I’ve been trusting it more and throwing it more. Instead of trying to make it break, I’m letting the grip do its work. It’s going to be one of my key pitches. Every day I’m working on it, trying to perfect it.

“I was a big basketball player in high school and my pitching coach last year, Rich Dorman, would always use a lot of basketball analogies with me. He used them to help me understand pitching. When you throw a baseball, you feel it off your fingertips, just the same as when you’re shooting a basketball. You feel where the ball is going to go, whether you’re going to miss right or miss left. Same with pitching, inside or out.”

On his fastball: “Velocity is one of the biggest keys to my fastball. I can get away with missing my spot sometimes, just because I have the velocity that I do. I think I’ve topped out at 99 this year. But I can’t always get away with it, so I’m working on making my location better.

“You don’t ever want to be too fine. That’s when you get yourself in trouble. If you’re a hard thrower and can get your fastball in the area of the location where your catcher sets up, you should be fine most of the time.”

On missing bats and maturing as a pitcher:
“There are times and places where you want to pitch to contact, but there are other times… it depends on what type of pitcher you are, if you’re a power pitcher, or not.

“I don’t really pay attention to it too much, but it’s always good to get more ground balls than fly balls. If the wind is blowing straight out, and you’re a fly ball pitcher, that can kind of hurt you. Plus, with runners on, you can get double plays.

“I think this year was big for me. I feel like I’ve had to learn how to pitch and not just be a thrower. In Double-A, you can’t just throw fastballs and get away with it. You really have to pitch. You have to mix your pitches and throw off-speed in hitters’ counts. This league helped make more of a pitcher.”

On his newest pitch: “I just added a cutter a few weeks ago. In high school I threw a slider, and I wanted to add it back, but they wouldn’t let me. Now that I’m at a higher level, they’re allowing me to work on this pitch. Not as my strikeout pitch, but just to have it. It’s another look. I feel it can be a good contact pitch, off my fastball, to get a ground ball. Or maybe I can get a broken bat or a pop out. I’ve been throwing it from 88 to 92, but I’m still working on it and trying to figure out how much break I need on it and how hard I need to throw it.”


Effectively Wild Episode 102: Josh Hamilton and Whether a Potentially Bad Contract is Worse Than No Contract at All

Ben and Sam are joined by Ian Miller and Riley Breckenridge, the heroes behind Productive Outs, to talk about the Angels, Josh Hamilton, and whether fans should worry about bad contracts anymore.


FanGraphs Audio: Chris Nowak, Top Unaffiliated Hitter

Episode 287
Chris Nowak, of both the Atlantic League’s York Revolution and (this winter, in Venezuela) Navegantes del Magallanes, is very likely the best hitter not currently playing affiliated baseball. He’s also the guest on this edition of FanGraphs Audio.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 38 min play time.)

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Anibal Sanchez and the Rebuilding Cubs

Last season, the Cubs lost 101 games. By straight record, it was their worst year since 1966, and they would’ve been the worst team in baseball were it not for the Astros putting on a clinic in how to accomplish exactly that. The Cubs, of course, are rebuilding, and as their 2012 team record would suggest, the process has only somewhat recently gotten underway. As you rebuild, you generally build from the ground up, acquiring youth and spending on short-term free agents. Generally.

Thursday, hours after it was revealed that Josh Hamilton was signing with the Angels, it was reported that Anibal Sanchez was signing with the Cubs. That comes from Bob Nightengale. Nightengale has written up a whole article about this, but no one else is yet confirming his report — Ken Rosenthal says instead that the Cubs are close, but that others remain in play. The Tigers have been Sanchez’s other most serious suitor, and Nightengale puts the Cubs’ offer at five years and $75 million. Let’s say that Sanchez has not yet agreed to a contract. We know now that the Cubs are deeply interested. And at first glance, that seems curious, given the Cubs’ position.

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