2013 ZiPS Projections – Arizona Diamondbacks

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Brewers / Cubs / Giants / Mets / Nationals / Phillies / Pirates / Rangers / Reds / Rockies / Royals / White Sox.

Batters
For Bill James, it was basically a mantra: a club’s shortcomings are frequently attributed to that same club’s best player, despite the fact that he is, by definition, least to blame for those shortcomings. The object of constant trade rumors, outfielder Justin Upton likely remains (according to ZiPS, at least) either the first- or second-best (behind Miguel Montero) field player on the Diamondbacks. Upton enters his age-25 season having produced almost precisely 12 wins above replacement over the last three years. Indeed, since 2002, only 10 other players with significant outfield experience have recorded as many as 10 wins between the ages of 22 and 24.

Here’s what they did in their respective age-25 seasons:

Name	Team	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	BABIP	wRC+	WAR
Albert Pujols	Cardinals	700	.330	.430	.609	.316	167	8.2
Andrew McCutchen	Pirates	673	.327	.400	.553	.375	158	7.4
Grady Sizemore	Indians	745	.268	.374	.502	.290	131	7.4
B.J. Upton	Rays	610	.237	.322	.424	.304	107	4.1
Adam Dunn	Reds	671	.247	.387	.540	.279	137	3.4
Carl Crawford	Devil Rays	627	.315	.355	.466	.374	116	3.3
Miguel Cabrera	Tigers	684	.292	.349	.537	.310	129	2.8
Jay Bruce	Reds	633	.252	.327	.514	.283	119	2.4
Nick Markakis	Orioles	711	.293	.347	.453	.317	107	2.3
Matt Kemp	Dodgers	668	.249	.310	.450	.295	105	0.5
Averages	—	672	.281	.360	.505	.314	128	4.2

Here’s a necessary caveat regarding those numbers: Upton might skew more towards the bottom of the list than the top of it. Here’s another: the Arizona front office obviously has more information regarding Upton than anyone else. Still, given the data here and his projection below, Upton appears more than likely to produce an above-average season in 2013.

Pitchers
The author recently made a comment, with regard to certain members of the Cincinnati starting rotation, that ZiPS was particularly optimistic about their projected innings totals, which sat at around 190-195 innings apiece. Could ZiPS talk — and were it also to affect the mannerisms of a 6-year-old — it would probably say something like, “Reds rotation, Schmeds schmotation.” Because the D-backs have a pair of starters, Ian Kennedy and Trevor Cahill, who’re projected to throw over 200 innings, is why — and to produce eight wins between them, as well.

While certain of Kevin Towers’ moves have been curious — including the one that brought Heath Bell to the Diamondbacks this offseason — it’s also the case that he’s demonstrated the ability to construct bullpens out of little to nothing. A couple years ago, Arizona had the worst bullpen in the league by kinda a lot. More recently, they haven’t. Some of that is regression; some of it is also Kevin Towers.

Bench/Prospects
According to ZiPS, there’s a good chance that entirely cost-controlled outfielder Adam Eaton could be a more valuable major leaguer in 2013, given the chance, than Cody Ross, to whom Arizona recently gave a three-year, $26 million contract. It is, of course, still possible — if Kevin Towers is able to trade Justin Upton — that both Eaton and Ross will play in the D-backs’ outfield this summer. In either case, it would seem wise to give a job to Eaton, who’s only barely outprojected by very popular Texas prospects Mike Olt and Jurickson Profar.

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the D-backs, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Justin Upton	R	25	RF	660	96	159	31	5	24	83	19	9
Miguel Montero	L	29	C	506	53	118	25	2	14	73	0	1
Aaron Hill	R	31	2B	624	74	155	33	3	20	78	11	5
Adam Eaton	L	24	CF	719	87	174	37	7	7	61	33	14
Paul Goldschmidt	R	25	1B	645	77	147	36	2	26	92	12	2
Cliff Pennington	B	29	SS	541	63	126	26	5	8	50	19	7
Didi Gregorius	L	23	SS	550	57	139	23	10	7	58	5	8
Jason Kubel	L	31	LF	515	59	120	26	3	24	85	1	1
Cody Ross	R	32	LF	517	65	122	29	1	19	74	4	2
Gerardo Parra	L	26	CF	509	57	126	23	6	8	47	13	5
Matt Davidson	R	22	3B	630	65	136	30	3	18	76	2	3
Chris Owings	R	21	SS	613	57	143	26	5	13	53	10	6
Chris Johnson	R	28	3B	541	56	132	29	4	15	81	4	1
Kila Ka’aihue	L	29	1B	503	54	105	25	1	17	64	1	1
Brent Clevlen	R	29	CF	320	32	69	14	3	8	37	4	1
Matt Mangini	L	27	3B	431	47	105	19	2	7	53	3	1
Taylor Harbin	R	27	2B	573	53	133	30	3	7	54	11	5
Eric Chavez	L	35	3B	202	19	47	9	0	7	28	0	0
A.J. Pollock	R	25	CF	552	59	135	27	4	5	46	19	7
Henry Blanco	R	41	C	77	7	17	3	0	3	11	1	0
John McDonald	R	38	SS	216	17	50	9	1	4	22	1	2
Tuffy Gosewisch	R	29	C	369	30	77	20	1	6	35	1	2
Josh Wilson	R	32	SS	370	37	80	20	3	4	32	4	2
Eric Hinske	L	35	1B	204	20	42	10	1	7	27	0	0
Brad Snyder	L	31	RF	443	53	97	22	3	15	62	9	5
Geoff Blum	B	40	3B	62	5	14	2	0	1	6	0	0
Lars Anderson	L	25	1B	566	53	121	32	2	11	59	2	1
Wil Nieves	R	35	C	204	16	44	6	0	3	16	1	1
Willie Bloomquist	R	35	SS	325	38	81	13	4	2	22	10	8
Keon Broxton	R	23	CF	588	56	121	18	3	9	44	20	11
Wladimir Sutil	R	28	SS	393	40	86	15	0	1	25	11	7
Alfredo Marte	R	24	RF	486	50	114	23	3	11	54	6	4
Tyler Graham	R	29	LF	320	40	71	11	2	1	22	23	7
Ryan Budde	R	33	C	228	17	38	8	1	3	18	1	1
Ryan Strieby	R	27	1B	496	46	93	20	1	15	55	2	1
Jonathan Griffin	R	24	1B	612	55	132	18	1	17	64	2	0
Mark Teahen	L	31	1B	389	38	85	19	2	4	36	4	3

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Justin Upton	660	10.0%	22.0%	.195	.325	.275	.355	.470	.352
Miguel Montero	506	10.5%	20.4%	.161	.317	.267	.354	.428	.335
Aaron Hill	624	6.7%	13.0%	.173	.285	.271	.326	.444	.330
Adam Eaton	719	8.5%	15.9%	.114	.326	.275	.358	.389	.331
Paul Goldschmidt	645	10.2%	27.0%	.208	.324	.259	.338	.467	.345
Cliff Pennington	541	7.4%	17.4%	.122	.303	.258	.315	.380	.303
Didi Gregorius	550	4.5%	16.2%	.125	.314	.271	.306	.396	.294
Jason Kubel	515	9.1%	23.3%	.225	.298	.260	.328	.485	.342
Cody Ross	517	7.5%	21.9%	.188	.302	.260	.321	.448	.329
Gerardo Parra	509	7.5%	18.5%	.127	.326	.273	.331	.400	.307
Matt Davidson	630	7.1%	26.3%	.158	.303	.239	.305	.397	.304
Chris Owings	613	2.8%	27.2%	.127	.318	.244	.269	.371	.276
Chris Johnson	541	4.8%	24.2%	.163	.321	.261	.301	.424	.310
Kila Ka’aihue	503	10.9%	21.5%	.177	.275	.238	.323	.415	.318
Brent Clevlen	320	7.2%	30.9%	.151	.324	.235	.292	.386	.294
Matt Mangini	431	5.3%	23.7%	.109	.331	.260	.304	.369	.293
Taylor Harbin	573	3.8%	17.8%	.106	.290	.247	.282	.353	.276
Eric Chavez	202	7.9%	19.3%	.164	.286	.257	.312	.421	.311
A.J. Pollock	552	5.4%	15.9%	.097	.307	.264	.305	.361	.292
Henry Blanco	77	7.8%	24.7%	.169	.286	.239	.299	.408	.312
John McDonald	216	5.1%	13.4%	.114	.272	.249	.290	.363	.271
Tuffy Gosewisch	369	4.9%	20.9%	.117	.273	.226	.275	.343	.270
Josh Wilson	370	4.6%	22.4%	.111	.295	.233	.280	.344	.273
Eric Hinske	204	9.3%	26.0%	.180	.282	.230	.304	.410	.305
Brad Snyder	443	6.3%	30.2%	.179	.312	.237	.287	.416	.300
Geoff Blum	62	6.5%	12.9%	.087	.265	.246	.290	.333	.264
Lars Anderson	566	9.5%	24.4%	.137	.306	.240	.314	.377	.303
Wil Nieves	204	4.4%	19.1%	.079	.275	.233	.269	.312	.245
Willie Bloomquist	325	4.6%	14.8%	.088	.306	.265	.299	.353	.280
Keon Broxton	588	6.8%	31.6%	.095	.322	.224	.280	.319	.265
Wladimir Sutil	393	5.9%	12.0%	.050	.272	.241	.294	.291	.259
Alfredo Marte	486	4.5%	21.4%	.136	.301	.251	.293	.387	.294
Tyler Graham	320	5.3%	20.0%	.062	.304	.241	.293	.303	.271
Ryan Budde	228	7.5%	34.6%	.091	.276	.184	.247	.275	.233
Ryan Strieby	496	8.1%	31.9%	.149	.281	.207	.278	.356	.279
Jonathan Griffin	612	6.4%	25.5%	.126	.289	.234	.283	.360	.281
Mark Teahen	389	6.9%	24.4%	.098	.312	.238	.294	.336	.276

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	WAR	No.1 Comp
Justin Upton	660	6.2	118	3	3.4	Chili Davis
Miguel Montero	506	5.5	108	2	3.4	Dave Nilsson
Aaron Hill	624	5.4	104	3	3.2	Travis Fryman
Adam Eaton	719	5.3	100	0	2.8	Chad Curtis
Paul Goldschmidt	645	5.9	113	-2	2.3	Derrek Lee
Cliff Pennington	541	4.5	85	2	1.9	Nelson Liriano
Didi Gregorius	550	4.2	86	5	1.9	Bill Spiers
Jason Kubel	515	5.8	114	-4	1.6	Brian Daubach
Cody Ross	517	5.3	103	0	1.4	David McCarty
Gerardo Parra	509	5.0	95	-3	1.4	Jerry Mumphrey
Matt Davidson	630	4.2	86	-2	1.1	Scott Moore
Chris Owings	613	3.5	69	4	0.9	Tony Perezchica
Chris Johnson	541	4.7	91	-10	0.6	Bobby Knoop
Kila Ka’aihue	503	4.7	96	-1	0.6	Bob Tumpane
Brent Clevlen	320	4.0	79	2	0.6	Damon Mashore
Matt Mangini	431	4.1	79	-1	0.6	Scott Livingstone
Taylor Harbin	573	3.6	69	4	0.6	Jace Brewer
Eric Chavez	202	4.8	94	-1	0.6	Vern Stephens
A.J. Pollock	552	4.2	78	-2	0.5	Bruce Fields
Henry Blanco	77	4.5	87	1	0.4	Jim Hegan
John McDonald	216	3.6	73	1	0.4	Rene Gonzales
Tuffy Gosewisch	369	3.2	64	0	0.3	Brandon Marsters
Josh Wilson	370	3.4	66	-2	0.1	Kelly Dransfeldt
Eric Hinske	204	4.4	89	-1	0.0	Tom Wilson
Brad Snyder	443	4.2	85	-2	0.0	Jalal Leach
Geoff Blum	62	3.5	66	0	0.0	Gene Michael
Lars Anderson	566	4.2	84	-1	0.0	Barry Miller
Wil Nieves	204	2.9	55	-1	-0.2	Frank Charles
Willie Bloomquist	325	3.7	74	-6	-0.2	Jamey Carroll
Keon Broxton	588	3.1	60	3	-0.3	Mike Murphy
Wladimir Sutil	393	3.0	57	-2	-0.3	Jarrett Stotts
Alfredo Marte	486	4.0	80	-3	-0.4	Bill McCarthy
Tyler Graham	320	3.5	60	1	-0.4	Steve Bieser
Ryan Budde	228	2.2	40	-1	-0.4	Chad Moeller
Ryan Strieby	496	3.4	68	0	-0.9	Mike Glendenning
Jonathan Griffin	612	3.6	71	-1	-1.0	Mike Snyder
Mark Teahen	389	3.4	68	-5	-1.3	Orsino Hill

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Ian Kennedy	R	28	32	32	201.3	178	56	24	192	89	83
Trevor Cahill	R	25	32	32	200.3	152	69	20	191	92	86
Wade Miley	L	26	31	29	180.0	131	47	17	184	83	78
Patrick Corbin	L	23	32	29	176.7	140	51	20	184	89	83
Brandon McCarthy	R	29	20	19	118.7	87	23	12	123	55	51
Daniel Hudson	R	26	19	19	118.3	95	28	13	123	58	54
Josh Collmenter	R	27	29	19	122.7	95	33	15	124	60	56
David Hernandez	R	28	68	0	65.7	84	26	5	51	24	22
David Holmberg	L	21	26	26	149.0	106	49	20	161	83	78
Tyler Skaggs	L	21	27	27	141.7	120	57	20	149	80	75
J.J. Putz	R	36	54	0	49.7	58	12	4	41	17	16
Brad Ziegler	R	33	66	0	58.0	42	20	4	56	25	23
Andrew Chafin	L	23	30	22	118.7	109	78	14	114	68	64
Matt Lindstrom	R	33	54	0	51.3	42	15	4	51	22	21
Heath Bell	R	35	62	0	58.7	54	22	5	56	27	25
Matt Reynolds	L	28	70	0	58.3	58	18	7	55	27	25
Tony Sipp	L	29	66	0	57.0	60	26	8	50	28	26
Chase Anderson	R	25	19	15	80.0	56	27	12	87	47	44
Charles Brewer	R	25	22	22	117.7	80	38	20	133	74	69
Eury De La Rosa	L	23	50	0	56.3	45	21	7	58	30	28
Takashi Saito	R	43	25	0	20.7	17	7	3	21	11	10
Brad Bergesen	R	27	36	15	120.7	67	40	18	138	76	71
Bo Schultz	R	27	35	0	46.0	29	24	4	50	27	25
Joe Paterson	L	27	57	0	47.7	37	22	6	51	28	26
Evan Marshall	R	23	39	0	43.3	24	17	5	48	26	24
Daniel Cabrera	R	32	17	15	78.3	42	40	11	91	54	50
Brett Tomko	R	40	18	14	81.7	48	44	12	94	56	52
Garrett Mock	R	30	31	4	47.7	38	31	7	52	32	30
Eric Smith	R	24	37	11	90.0	46	67	8	104	62	58
Nelson Figueroa	R	39	20	14	90.3	45	43	14	109	66	62
Starling Peralta	R	22	18	16	80.3	55	47	17	94	62	58
Steve Garrison	L	26	20	17	89.0	34	29	20	119	74	69

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Ian Kennedy	201.3	852	20.9%	6.6%	.288	3.71	3.85	89	93
Trevor Cahill	200.3	861	17.7%	8.0%	.280	3.86	4.03	93	97
Wade Miley	180.0	771	17.0%	6.1%	.292	3.90	3.72	94	89
Patrick Corbin	176.7	765	18.3%	6.7%	.301	4.23	3.97	102	95
Brandon McCarthy	118.7	502	17.3%	4.6%	.295	3.87	3.60	93	87
Daniel Hudson	118.3	506	18.8%	5.5%	.300	4.11	3.70	99	89
Josh Collmenter	122.7	525	18.1%	6.3%	.288	4.11	3.97	99	95
David Hernandez	65.7	274	30.6%	9.5%	.295	3.02	2.76	73	66
David Holmberg	149.0	657	16.1%	7.5%	.298	4.71	4.58	113	110
Tyler Skaggs	141.7	631	19.0%	9.0%	.303	4.76	4.61	115	111
J.J. Putz	49.7	202	28.7%	5.9%	.293	2.90	2.59	70	62
Brad Ziegler	58.0	250	16.8%	8.0%	.284	3.57	3.42	86	82
Andrew Chafin	118.7	548	19.9%	14.2%	.294	4.85	4.94	117	119
Matt Lindstrom	51.3	220	19.1%	6.8%	.301	3.68	3.41	89	82
Heath Bell	58.7	254	21.3%	8.7%	.296	3.84	3.44	92	83
Matt Reynolds	58.3	248	23.4%	7.3%	.293	3.86	3.44	93	83
Tony Sipp	57.0	247	24.3%	10.5%	.276	4.11	4.13	99	99
Chase Anderson	80.0	354	15.8%	7.6%	.296	4.95	4.85	119	117
Charles Brewer	117.7	524	15.3%	7.3%	.299	5.28	5.09	127	123
Eury De La Rosa	56.3	248	18.2%	8.5%	.298	4.47	4.39	108	106
Takashi Saito	20.7	90	18.9%	7.8%	.290	4.35	4.35	105	105
Brad Bergesen	120.7	540	12.4%	7.4%	.293	5.30	5.02	128	121
Bo Schultz	46.0	212	13.7%	11.3%	.305	4.89	4.66	118	112
Joe Paterson	47.7	216	17.1%	10.2%	.306	4.91	4.75	118	114
Evan Marshall	43.3	195	12.3%	8.7%	.295	4.98	4.73	120	114
Daniel Cabrera	78.3	366	11.5%	10.9%	.300	5.74	5.57	138	134
Brett Tomko	81.7	383	12.5%	11.5%	.299	5.73	5.59	138	135
Garrett Mock	47.7	226	16.8%	13.7%	.308	5.66	5.55	136	134
Eric Smith	90.0	441	10.4%	15.2%	.306	5.80	5.63	140	135
Nelson Figueroa	90.3	423	10.6%	10.2%	.302	6.18	5.74	149	138
Starling Peralta	80.3	382	14.4%	12.3%	.300	6.50	6.46	156	155
Steve Garrison	89.0	415	8.2%	7.0%	.304	6.98	6.40	168	154

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	WAR	No. 1 Comp
Ian Kennedy	201.3	7.96	2.50	1.07	112	4.3	Freddy Garcia
Trevor Cahill	200.3	6.83	3.10	0.90	108	3.9	Jon Garland
Wade Miley	180.0	6.55	2.35	0.85	107	3.4	Rick Honeycutt
Patrick Corbin	176.7	7.13	2.60	1.02	98	2.6	Joe Kennedy
Brandon McCarthy	118.7	6.60	1.74	0.91	108	2.3	Bill Wegman
Daniel Hudson	118.3	7.23	2.13	0.99	101	1.9	Justin Duchscherer
Josh Collmenter	122.7	6.97	2.42	1.10	101	1.9	Mark Clark
David Hernandez	65.7	11.51	3.56	0.68	138	1.4	Bryan Harvey
David Holmberg	149.0	6.40	2.96	1.21	88	1.3	Jason Jacome
Tyler Skaggs	141.7	7.62	3.62	1.27	87	1.2	Phil Norton
J.J. Putz	49.7	10.50	2.17	0.72	143	1.1	John Smoltz
Brad Ziegler	58.0	6.52	3.10	0.62	117	0.9	Dwight Bernard
Andrew Chafin	118.7	8.26	5.91	1.06	86	0.8	Juan Ovalles
Matt Lindstrom	51.3	7.37	2.63	0.70	113	0.7	Bryan Corey
Heath Bell	58.7	8.28	3.37	0.77	108	0.7	Doug Henry
Matt Reynolds	58.3	8.95	2.78	1.08	108	0.7	Eddie Guardado
Tony Sipp	57.0	9.47	4.11	1.26	101	0.5	Greg McCarthy
Chase Anderson	80.0	6.30	3.04	1.35	84	0.5	Tim Hamm
Charles Brewer	117.7	6.12	2.91	1.53	79	0.2	J.D. Smart
Eury De La Rosa	56.3	7.19	3.36	1.12	93	0.2	Ray Beasley
Takashi Saito	20.7	7.39	3.04	1.30	96	0.1	Jose Mesa
Brad Bergesen	120.7	5.00	2.98	1.34	79	0.0	Larry Shikles
Bo Schultz	46.0	5.67	4.70	0.78	85	-0.1	Ken Wright
Joe Paterson	47.7	6.98	4.15	1.13	85	-0.1	Ken Vining
Evan Marshall	43.3	4.99	3.53	1.04	83	-0.1	Steve Barber
Daniel Cabrera	78.3	4.83	4.60	1.26	72	-0.3	Russ Ortiz
Brett Tomko	81.7	5.29	4.85	1.32	73	-0.3	Ed Riley
Garrett Mock	47.7	7.17	5.85	1.32	73	-0.3	Chuck Smith
Eric Smith	90.0	4.60	6.70	0.80	72	-0.6	Tim Byron
Nelson Figueroa	90.3	4.49	4.29	1.40	67	-0.9	Burleigh Grimes
Starling Peralta	80.3	6.16	5.27	1.91	64	-1.1	Matt Goodson
Steve Garrison	89.0	3.44	2.93	2.02	60	-1.7	Omar Daal

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.