2013 ZiPS Projections – Houston Astros
Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, will be released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the very newest addition to the American League, the Houston Astros. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.
Other 2013 Projections: Athletics / Giants / Nationals / Phillies / Rangers.
Batters
It’s good news for Houston that young third baseman Matt Dominguez — acquired last July in a deal with Miami for Carlos Lee — that Dominguez is projected to post a roughly league-average WAR in 2013. What’s less good news for Houston is that Dominguez is projected to be the second-best player on the team — after Jose Altuve, that is.
Of note regarding Houston’s forecasts is this: there are a number of starters (or two, at least) whose plate-appearance projections are rather low. Shortstop Jed Lowrie (332 PA) and center fielder Justin Maxwell (358 PA), for example, could conceivably produce almost twice as many wins, were they to play something closer to full-time.
Pitchers
Only one Astros pitcher (left-handed reliever Wesley Wright) is projected to post an ERA- (that is, park-adjusted ERA relative to league-average) lower than 100. Otherwise, ZiPS foresees literally every other Houston pitcher allowing runs at an above-average rate.
That’s not to say that the club doesn’t have pieces. Right-handed starter Bud Norris has an excellent slider and has struck out almost a batter an inning over 97 career starts. Rotation mates Lucas Harrell, Jordan Lyles, and Alex White all posted ground-ball rates above 50% in 2012. Those are all positives, of course — and, if any of those pitchers makes gains in another area, he could become average or better. On a team level, however, the Astros look likely to be conceding quite a few runs in 2013.
Bench/Prospects
What Houston does have is a lot in the way of promising young players — both in the form of potential stars and also future role players. Both first baseman Jonathan Singleton and outfielder Robbie Grossman — ranked first and 11th among Houston prospects, according to Marc Hulet — could make their major-league debuts this summer, and both would likely represent an improvement over whomever they’d be replacing. Meanwhile, Delino Deshields Jr. and George Springer are already regarded as something better than replacement level by ZiPS, despite the fact they’re probably more than a season away from the majors.
Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the Astros, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):
Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.
Batters, Counting Stats
| Player | B | Age | PO | PA | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Altuve | R | 23 | 2B | 672 | 85 | 178 | 33 | 6 | 9 | 49 | 33 | 14 |
| Matt Dominguez | R | 23 | 3B | 596 | 64 | 139 | 27 | 2 | 14 | 66 | 0 | 1 |
| Jed Lowrie | B | 29 | SS | 332 | 39 | 74 | 17 | 1 | 11 | 37 | 2 | 0 |
| Carlos Pena | L | 35 | 1B | 525 | 65 | 93 | 19 | 2 | 24 | 65 | 2 | 2 |
| Jonathan Singleton | L | 21 | 1B | 574 | 81 | 116 | 23 | 4 | 19 | 65 | 6 | 2 |
| Brandon Laird | R | 25 | 3B | 613 | 59 | 137 | 29 | 2 | 17 | 68 | 1 | 1 |
| Justin Maxwell | R | 29 | CF | 358 | 47 | 67 | 13 | 2 | 15 | 42 | 13 | 5 |
| Jason Castro | L | 26 | C | 384 | 44 | 81 | 16 | 1 | 6 | 35 | 1 | 1 |
| Tyler Greene | R | 29 | 2B | 427 | 52 | 88 | 18 | 2 | 12 | 34 | 18 | 4 |
| Jake Elmore | R | 26 | SS | 555 | 56 | 120 | 22 | 3 | 2 | 39 | 19 | 9 |
| Delino Deshields Jr. | R | 20 | 2B | 647 | 79 | 128 | 19 | 4 | 10 | 53 | 55 | 18 |
| George Springer | R | 23 | CF | 594 | 75 | 120 | 18 | 6 | 13 | 58 | 21 | 8 |
| Che-Hsuan Lin | R | 24 | CF | 552 | 61 | 121 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 30 | 20 | 7 |
| Fernando Martinez | L | 24 | LF | 439 | 50 | 97 | 21 | 2 | 14 | 45 | 1 | 2 |
| Chris Snyder | R | 32 | C | 245 | 25 | 43 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 0 | 0 |
| Robbie Grossman | B | 23 | CF | 628 | 83 | 123 | 25 | 4 | 10 | 50 | 12 | 9 |
| Jonathan Villar | B | 22 | SS | 512 | 56 | 99 | 13 | 4 | 10 | 44 | 31 | 11 |
| Marwin Gonzalez | B | 24 | SS | 418 | 41 | 96 | 20 | 2 | 3 | 30 | 6 | 4 |
| Landon Powell | B | 31 | C | 222 | 25 | 42 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 0 |
| Brett Wallace | L | 26 | 1B | 604 | 67 | 132 | 26 | 1 | 17 | 63 | 1 | 1 |
| J.D. Martinez | R | 25 | LF | 578 | 61 | 134 | 26 | 2 | 11 | 71 | 1 | 2 |
| Carlos Corporan | B | 29 | C | 204 | 17 | 42 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 1 |
| Domingo Santana | R | 20 | RF | 556 | 61 | 110 | 25 | 4 | 14 | 55 | 6 | 1 |
| Brandon Barnes | R | 27 | CF | 575 | 59 | 112 | 29 | 3 | 12 | 54 | 10 | 5 |
| Trevor Crowe | B | 29 | CF | 357 | 37 | 79 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 29 | 14 | 6 |
| J.B. Shuck | L | 26 | LF | 520 | 58 | 118 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 31 | 12 | 8 |
| Drew Locke | R | 30 | RF | 418 | 43 | 91 | 20 | 2 | 9 | 47 | 4 | 2 |
| Jimmy Paredes | B | 24 | 2B | 422 | 46 | 94 | 18 | 4 | 5 | 31 | 20 | 10 |
| Nate Freiman | R | 26 | 1B | 604 | 63 | 131 | 29 | 1 | 16 | 74 | 1 | 1 |
| Marc Krauss | L | 25 | LF | 533 | 55 | 100 | 22 | 2 | 14 | 49 | 4 | 3 |
***
Batters, Rates and Averages
| Player | PA | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP | BA | OBP | SLG | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Altuve | 672 | 5.5% | 11.8% | .116 | .315 | .287 | .330 | .403 | .319 |
| Matt Dominguez | 596 | 5.5% | 14.3% | .132 | .273 | .251 | .296 | .383 | .293 |
| Jed Lowrie | 332 | 10.2% | 17.2% | .177 | .276 | .253 | .331 | .430 | .331 |
| Carlos Pena | 525 | 14.9% | 29.5% | .218 | .265 | .214 | .341 | .432 | .334 |
| Jonathan Singleton | 574 | 13.4% | 30.7% | .179 | .322 | .236 | .338 | .415 | .327 |
| Brandon Laird | 613 | 4.7% | 21.0% | .146 | .277 | .239 | .279 | .385 | .287 |
| Justin Maxwell | 358 | 10.1% | 35.5% | .196 | .295 | .211 | .297 | .407 | .307 |
| Jason Castro | 384 | 9.9% | 21.1% | .106 | .293 | .238 | .316 | .344 | .290 |
| Tyler Greene | 427 | 7.5% | 29.3% | .151 | .305 | .229 | .297 | .380 | .296 |
| Jake Elmore | 555 | 9.9% | 16.6% | .071 | .297 | .247 | .325 | .318 | .287 |
| Delino Deshields Jr. | 647 | 8.3% | 28.1% | .099 | .303 | .221 | .294 | .320 | .278 |
| George Springer | 594 | 8.1% | 34.8% | .129 | .334 | .224 | .292 | .353 | .283 |
| Che-Hsuan Lin | 552 | 8.3% | 15.4% | .059 | .290 | .244 | .316 | .303 | .282 |
| Fernando Martinez | 439 | 5.5% | 27.3% | .167 | .306 | .241 | .297 | .408 | .303 |
| Chris Snyder | 245 | 13.5% | 27.3% | .135 | .269 | .208 | .324 | .343 | .290 |
| Robbie Grossman | 628 | 12.1% | 26.0% | .117 | .308 | .229 | .330 | .346 | .299 |
| Jonathan Villar | 512 | 7.4% | 31.3% | .112 | .305 | .216 | .280 | .328 | .268 |
| Marwin Gonzalez | 418 | 5.3% | 14.6% | .085 | .286 | .249 | .291 | .334 | .270 |
| Landon Powell | 222 | 9.9% | 25.2% | .102 | .270 | .213 | .294 | .315 | .268 |
| Brett Wallace | 604 | 7.0% | 27.8% | .145 | .317 | .242 | .311 | .387 | .303 |
| J.D. Martinez | 578 | 7.4% | 22.1% | .120 | .314 | .254 | .313 | .374 | .301 |
| Carlos Corporan | 204 | 5.4% | 25.5% | .120 | .290 | .228 | .282 | .348 | .266 |
| Domingo Santana | 556 | 6.8% | 38.1% | .149 | .340 | .217 | .284 | .366 | .287 |
| Brandon Barnes | 575 | 6.1% | 31.3% | .134 | .293 | .211 | .264 | .345 | .266 |
| Trevor Crowe | 357 | 7.0% | 18.2% | .094 | .291 | .242 | .296 | .336 | .278 |
| J.B. Shuck | 520 | 9.0% | 11.7% | .053 | .289 | .252 | .320 | .305 | .278 |
| Drew Locke | 418 | 5.7% | 22.2% | .131 | .284 | .234 | .282 | .365 | .281 |
| Jimmy Paredes | 422 | 3.8% | 25.8% | .102 | .309 | .236 | .265 | .338 | .261 |
| Nate Freiman | 604 | 6.5% | 23.5% | .143 | .288 | .236 | .293 | .379 | .292 |
| Marc Krauss | 533 | 9.8% | 31.9% | .144 | .295 | .212 | .293 | .356 | .286 |
***
Batters, Assorted Other
| Player | PA | RC/27 | OPS+ | Def | WAR | No.1 Comp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Altuve | 672 | 5.1 | 101 | -5 | 2.5 | Steve Sax |
| Matt Dominguez | 596 | 4.1 | 85 | 5 | 1.9 | Brent Butler |
| Jed Lowrie | 332 | 5.2 | 108 | -2 | 1.8 | Jim Lefebvre |
| Carlos Pena | 525 | 5.0 | 111 | -1 | 1.6 | Jeromy Burnitz |
| Jonathan Singleton | 574 | 5.0 | 106 | -2 | 1.5 | Cal Pickering |
| Brandon Laird | 613 | 3.8 | 80 | 2 | 1.4 | David Winfree |
| Justin Maxwell | 358 | 4.2 | 91 | 2 | 1.3 | Brad Komminsk |
| Jason Castro | 384 | 3.8 | 82 | 0 | 1.2 | Bob Henley |
| Tyler Greene | 427 | 4.2 | 85 | -2 | 1.2 | Nick Green |
| Jake Elmore | 555 | 3.7 | 78 | -3 | 1.1 | Peter Peltz |
| Delino Deshields Jr. | 647 | 3.6 | 69 | -2 | 0.9 | Sibby Sisti |
| George Springer | 594 | 3.7 | 76 | 0 | 0.9 | Cameron Maybin |
| Che-Hsuan Lin | 552 | 3.6 | 72 | 3 | 0.9 | Joe Trippy |
| Fernando Martinez | 439 | 4.2 | 92 | 3 | 0.8 | Pedro Munoz |
| Chris Snyder | 245 | 3.8 | 84 | -1 | 0.8 | Kelly Stinnett |
| Robbie Grossman | 628 | 3.9 | 86 | -6 | 0.7 | Rich Becker |
| Jonathan Villar | 512 | 3.4 | 67 | -4 | 0.6 | Buddy Biancalana |
| Marwin Gonzalez | 418 | 3.4 | 72 | -2 | 0.5 | Jorge Velandia |
| Landon Powell | 222 | 3.2 | 68 | 0 | 0.4 | Chad Moeller |
| Brett Wallace | 604 | 4.3 | 91 | -2 | 0.4 | Lyle Overbay |
| J.D. Martinez | 578 | 4.2 | 88 | -3 | 0.3 | Brian Stavisky |
| Carlos Corporan | 204 | 3.3 | 72 | -2 | 0.2 | Mike DiFelice |
| Domingo Santana | 556 | 3.7 | 77 | 0 | 0.1 | Wil Culmer |
| Brandon Barnes | 575 | 3.1 | 66 | -1 | -0.1 | Robert Jones |
| Trevor Crowe | 357 | 3.6 | 74 | -5 | -0.1 | Tony Diggs |
| J.B. Shuck | 520 | 3.4 | 73 | 3 | -0.1 | Steve Stanley |
| Drew Locke | 418 | 3.6 | 77 | -2 | -0.2 | Tom Nevers |
| Jimmy Paredes | 422 | 3.2 | 65 | -3 | -0.2 | Bob Meacham |
| Nate Freiman | 604 | 3.9 | 83 | -4 | -0.3 | Leo Daigle |
| Marc Krauss | 533 | 3.5 | 78 | -4 | -0.4 | Orsino Hill |
***
Pitchers, Counting Stats
| Player | T | Age | G | GS | IP | SO | BB | HR | H | R | ER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bud Norris | R | 28 | 29 | 29 | 168.3 | 167 | 69 | 23 | 164 | 91 | 85 |
| Lucas Harrell | R | 28 | 29 | 27 | 153.3 | 101 | 67 | 14 | 166 | 87 | 81 |
| Jordan Lyles | R | 22 | 31 | 28 | 165.3 | 116 | 46 | 21 | 185 | 97 | 91 |
| Wesley Wright | L | 28 | 71 | 0 | 58.7 | 57 | 23 | 6 | 55 | 28 | 26 |
| Jose Veras | R | 32 | 68 | 0 | 64.0 | 68 | 35 | 7 | 59 | 32 | 30 |
| Alex White | R | 24 | 28 | 26 | 129.3 | 89 | 59 | 17 | 141 | 78 | 73 |
| Edgar Gonzalez | R | 30 | 22 | 18 | 95.3 | 61 | 28 | 11 | 112 | 57 | 53 |
| John Ely | R | 27 | 28 | 26 | 148.0 | 108 | 51 | 20 | 166 | 90 | 84 |
| Fernando Rodriguez | R | 29 | 66 | 0 | 70.7 | 78 | 35 | 9 | 67 | 37 | 35 |
| Chia-Jen Lo | R | 27 | 12 | 2 | 16.7 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 9 |
| Xavier Cedeno | L | 26 | 68 | 0 | 59.3 | 55 | 26 | 6 | 61 | 32 | 30 |
| Philip Humber | R | 30 | 27 | 20 | 123.0 | 88 | 38 | 20 | 139 | 77 | 72 |
| Jose Cisnero | R | 24 | 27 | 27 | 120.3 | 102 | 60 | 19 | 135 | 76 | 71 |
| Sergio Escalona | L | 28 | 47 | 0 | 38.3 | 31 | 18 | 5 | 41 | 22 | 21 |
| Josh Fields | R | 27 | 37 | 0 | 47.7 | 46 | 30 | 6 | 47 | 28 | 26 |
| Francisco Cordero | R | 38 | 48 | 0 | 44.3 | 32 | 17 | 6 | 50 | 27 | 25 |
| Jose Valdez | R | 30 | 43 | 0 | 43.7 | 40 | 18 | 6 | 47 | 27 | 25 |
| Dallas Keuchel | L | 25 | 29 | 29 | 157.0 | 80 | 53 | 19 | 191 | 103 | 96 |
| Sam Demel | R | 27 | 55 | 0 | 56.3 | 47 | 25 | 9 | 62 | 36 | 34 |
| Rhiner Cruz | R | 26 | 52 | 0 | 61.7 | 51 | 40 | 9 | 66 | 42 | 39 |
| Hector Ambriz | R | 29 | 49 | 0 | 63.3 | 49 | 35 | 8 | 73 | 43 | 40 |
| Enerio Del Rosario | R | 27 | 58 | 0 | 62.0 | 31 | 30 | 8 | 77 | 44 | 41 |
| Brett Oberholtzer | L | 23 | 27 | 27 | 145.7 | 94 | 56 | 22 | 177 | 102 | 95 |
| Adalberto Flores | R | 26 | 47 | 1 | 69.7 | 47 | 38 | 10 | 82 | 49 | 46 |
| Asher Wojciechowski | R | 24 | 25 | 24 | 117.7 | 67 | 50 | 18 | 149 | 85 | 79 |
| Jarred Cosart | R | 23 | 23 | 22 | 113.3 | 71 | 74 | 15 | 133 | 83 | 78 |
| Paul Clemens | R | 25 | 28 | 21 | 119.3 | 77 | 57 | 19 | 147 | 88 | 82 |
| Rudy Owens | L | 25 | 24 | 24 | 125.7 | 74 | 43 | 25 | 158 | 93 | 87 |
| Ross Seaton | R | 23 | 27 | 27 | 144.3 | 76 | 54 | 24 | 184 | 108 | 101 |
***
Pitchers, Rates and Averages
| Player | IP | TBF | K% | BB% | BABIP | ERA | FIP | ERA- | FIP- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bud Norris | 168.3 | 738 | 22.6% | 9.4% | .298 | 4.54 | 4.15 | 112 | 102 |
| Lucas Harrell | 153.3 | 693 | 14.6% | 9.7% | .300 | 4.75 | 4.28 | 117 | 105 |
| Jordan Lyles | 165.3 | 727 | 16.0% | 6.3% | .305 | 4.95 | 4.25 | 122 | 104 |
| Wesley Wright | 58.7 | 254 | 22.4% | 9.1% | .300 | 3.99 | 3.86 | 98 | 95 |
| Jose Veras | 64.0 | 286 | 23.8% | 12.2% | .301 | 4.22 | 4.08 | 104 | 100 |
| Alex White | 129.3 | 588 | 15.1% | 10.0% | .299 | 5.08 | 4.82 | 125 | 118 |
| Edgar Gonzalez | 95.3 | 426 | 14.3% | 6.6% | .315 | 5.00 | 4.35 | 123 | 107 |
| John Ely | 148.0 | 661 | 16.3% | 7.7% | .308 | 5.11 | 4.55 | 126 | 112 |
| Fernando Rodriguez | 70.7 | 314 | 24.8% | 11.1% | .305 | 4.46 | 3.86 | 110 | 95 |
| Chia-Jen Lo | 16.7 | 75 | 20.0% | 10.7% | .305 | 4.86 | 4.47 | 119 | 110 |
| Xavier Cedeno | 59.3 | 265 | 20.8% | 9.8% | .314 | 4.55 | 3.87 | 112 | 95 |
| Philip Humber | 123.0 | 546 | 16.1% | 7.0% | .301 | 5.27 | 4.78 | 130 | 117 |
| Jose Cisnero | 120.3 | 556 | 18.3% | 10.8% | .318 | 5.31 | 5.17 | 130 | 127 |
| Sergio Escalona | 38.3 | 174 | 17.8% | 10.4% | .308 | 4.93 | 4.74 | 121 | 116 |
| Josh Fields | 47.7 | 220 | 20.9% | 13.6% | .303 | 4.91 | 4.81 | 121 | 118 |
| Francisco Cordero | 44.3 | 200 | 16.0% | 8.5% | .308 | 5.08 | 4.56 | 125 | 112 |
| Jose Valdez | 43.7 | 196 | 20.4% | 9.2% | .315 | 5.15 | 4.22 | 127 | 104 |
| Dallas Keuchel | 157.0 | 715 | 11.2% | 7.4% | .310 | 5.50 | 4.76 | 135 | 117 |
| Sam Demel | 56.3 | 256 | 18.4% | 9.8% | .308 | 5.43 | 4.84 | 133 | 119 |
| Rhiner Cruz | 61.7 | 291 | 17.5% | 13.7% | .303 | 5.69 | 5.43 | 140 | 133 |
| Hector Ambriz | 63.3 | 298 | 16.4% | 11.7% | .322 | 5.68 | 4.90 | 140 | 120 |
| Enerio Del Rosario | 62.0 | 293 | 10.6% | 10.2% | .314 | 5.95 | 5.32 | 146 | 131 |
| Brett Oberholtzer | 145.7 | 670 | 14.0% | 8.4% | .317 | 5.87 | 5.04 | 144 | 124 |
| Adalberto Flores | 69.7 | 329 | 14.3% | 11.5% | .314 | 5.94 | 5.29 | 146 | 130 |
| Asher Wojciechowski | 117.7 | 552 | 12.1% | 9.1% | .320 | 6.04 | 5.42 | 148 | 133 |
| Jarred Cosart | 113.3 | 547 | 13.0% | 13.5% | .311 | 6.19 | 5.73 | 152 | 141 |
| Paul Clemens | 119.3 | 562 | 13.7% | 10.1% | .319 | 6.18 | 5.46 | 152 | 134 |
| Rudy Owens | 125.7 | 578 | 12.8% | 7.4% | .311 | 6.23 | 5.67 | 153 | 139 |
| Ross Seaton | 144.3 | 671 | 11.3% | 8.0% | .316 | 6.30 | 5.45 | 155 | 134 |
***
Pitchers, Assorted Other
| Player | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | ERA+ | WAR | No. 1 Comp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bud Norris | 168.3 | 8.93 | 3.69 | 1.23 | 89 | 1.5 | Kip Wells |
| Lucas Harrell | 153.3 | 5.93 | 3.93 | 0.82 | 85 | 0.9 | Mike Dunne |
| Jordan Lyles | 165.3 | 6.32 | 2.50 | 1.14 | 81 | 0.6 | Wally Whitehurst |
| Wesley Wright | 58.7 | 8.74 | 3.53 | 0.92 | 101 | 0.4 | Mike Stanton |
| Jose Veras | 64.0 | 9.56 | 4.92 | 0.98 | 95 | 0.3 | Frank LaCorte |
| Alex White | 129.3 | 6.19 | 4.11 | 1.18 | 79 | 0.3 | Darin Blood |
| Edgar Gonzalez | 95.3 | 5.76 | 2.64 | 1.04 | 80 | 0.3 | Heath Totten |
| John Ely | 148.0 | 6.57 | 3.10 | 1.22 | 79 | 0.3 | Jason Davis |
| Fernando Rodriguez | 70.7 | 9.93 | 4.46 | 1.15 | 90 | 0.1 | Chris Schroder |
| Chia-Jen Lo | 16.7 | 8.08 | 4.31 | 1.08 | 83 | 0.0 | Jeff Jones |
| Xavier Cedeno | 59.3 | 8.35 | 3.95 | 0.91 | 88 | 0.0 | Brian Snyder |
| Philip Humber | 123.0 | 6.44 | 2.78 | 1.46 | 76 | -0.1 | Shawn Boskie |
| Jose Cisnero | 120.3 | 7.63 | 4.49 | 1.42 | 76 | -0.1 | Pete Fisher |
| Sergio Escalona | 38.3 | 7.28 | 4.23 | 1.17 | 82 | -0.2 | Sean Fesh |
| Josh Fields | 47.7 | 8.68 | 5.66 | 1.13 | 82 | -0.2 | Franklyn German |
| Francisco Cordero | 44.3 | 6.50 | 3.45 | 1.22 | 79 | -0.3 | Terry Clark |
| Jose Valdez | 43.7 | 8.24 | 3.71 | 1.24 | 78 | -0.3 | Doug Henry |
| Dallas Keuchel | 157.0 | 4.59 | 3.04 | 1.09 | 73 | -0.5 | Jeff Mutis |
| Sam Demel | 56.3 | 7.51 | 4.00 | 1.44 | 74 | -0.6 | Dan Kite |
| Rhiner Cruz | 61.7 | 7.44 | 5.83 | 1.31 | 71 | -0.8 | Jason Gilfillan |
| Hector Ambriz | 63.3 | 6.97 | 4.98 | 1.14 | 71 | -0.9 | Steve Green |
| Enerio Del Rosario | 62.0 | 4.50 | 4.35 | 1.16 | 68 | -1.0 | Kevin Joseph |
| Brett Oberholtzer | 145.7 | 5.81 | 3.46 | 1.36 | 69 | -1.1 | Andy Van Hekken |
| Adalberto Flores | 69.7 | 6.07 | 4.91 | 1.29 | 68 | -1.1 | Sean Green |
| Asher Wojciechowski | 117.7 | 5.12 | 3.82 | 1.38 | 67 | -1.1 | Omar Ortiz |
| Jarred Cosart | 113.3 | 5.64 | 5.88 | 1.19 | 65 | -1.3 | Brett Laxton |
| Paul Clemens | 119.3 | 5.81 | 4.30 | 1.43 | 65 | -1.4 | Matt Achilles |
| Rudy Owens | 125.7 | 5.30 | 3.08 | 1.79 | 65 | -1.5 | Heath Phillips |
| Ross Seaton | 144.3 | 4.74 | 3.37 | 1.50 | 64 | -1.8 | Matt Childers |
***
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.
Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.
Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”
Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

the Brett Wallace-Lyle Overbay comparison might be the greatest of all-time…in so many different ways.
Tyler Greene’s #1 comp? Nick Green.
In prior years, the ZIPS projections used to include the odds of reaching certain high end statistical feats – which I found quite useful in terms of assessing upside potential. Do those exist any longer?
I believe so, but not here. Dan will be producing spreadsheets with more information on them at a later time to lag behind these postings.
The only ERA projected below a 4.00 is Wesley Wright’s 3.99. Yikes.
You know your team is bad when your best pitcher’s #1 comparable is Kip Wells.
I’m going to miss the Reds getting a ton of easy wins from these scrubs.
Too bad the Astros don’t play the Reds buddy. Good try though.
what?
What?
Did you even read what he wrote?
“I’m going to miss the Reds getting a ton of easy wins from these scrubs.”
Miss= Past-tense buddy. Good try though.
well actually, miss isnt neccessarily past tense…you can miss something or someone in the present tense. and in fact, what he was using was more or less future tense, given that he wrote he was “going to” miss the Reds….implying that it was something that happened in the past, but wont again in the future. sorry. just kinda bothers me when people try and call out other people and screw it up. granted, this Matt clown was a clown, but in the end, so were you.
Surprised Singleton is projected so well, although there is no way he breaks with the team to control his clock. He is a very exciting prospect to watch.
Yeah – especially given that he’s a 21-year-old, that seems like a bullish projection from ZiPS.
Every single pitcher projected has a FIP- that is better than their ERA- and some by a large margin. Does ZIPS think Houston’s defense is bad or god-awful?
Doesn’t like the defense, but also, some of it’s a result of very few of the pitchers being MLB quality – FIP is great, but I’ve found that at the very fringe, guys who really shoudln’t be in the majors, more underperform FIP (and taking into account smaller sample size) than you have in real life.
Have in the majors, not real life. Obviously, baseball exists.
When will the Fangraphs+ for 2013 be available?
Is there a “traded away from Colorado” adjustment needed for Alex White’s projection? You know, similar to the one made for Jason Hammel last year?
White was projected at a 5.27 ERA in Colorado… So the move to Houston gives him a slightly better ERA, which buys him a couple more innings (~127 in COL). But, also remember, it’s a move from the NL to the AL, which slightly offsets the advantageous move away from Coors.
Using the unofficial and invalid method of adding WAR from the depth chart above to 45 for projected wins, the Astros get 61. That must be a near-record low. The Giants and Phillies were tied for worst at 80 before this.
Any chance you guys could add a column in the tables identifying the level at which you are projecting players to achieve the stats listed? It’s a bit confusing to look at the table and see rows and rows of stats without a way to contextualize them by level of competition. This is particularly true for a team like Houston, where probably 10 people outside of the clubhouse and unrelated to the starting lineup could name more than half of Houston’s Opening Day roster…
Or alternatively, the level at which you project the players to begin 2013…
All are projected against MLB competition. ZiPS does not make playing time assessments (see the end note) so that’s why you see way too many PAs and IPs.
Although there is a bit of a question as how the outfield will shake out, and I’m sure there will be lots of experiments along the way, I think it is very much under-projecting the number of AB J.Maxwell will get. He was a good find for nothing, and is the most likely current outfielder to play everyday. His power and defensive versatility should earn him the most AB this year I would guess in the OF.
“Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — “
Yes, Luhnow has been quoted as saying that Maxwell has been hurt because nobody has ever given him the opportunity to be a full time starter, and implied that he would like to see what he can do with that kind of playing time.
Don’t be surprised to see singleton to rise this year I have relatives in Corpus Christi and that kid is a stud
The move to the AL has concealed the potential improvement in some of the pitchers, like Norris, Lyles, and White. If those ERAs were converted to the NL, their results would look pretty good in comparison to last year.
okay someone explain too me what ZIPS is?
Justin maxwell hit 18 HR’s last year and was injured most of the time… He should be projected too hit 25-30 HR’s common!
Hello 120 losses