2013 ZiPS Projections – Houston Astros

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, will be released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the very newest addition to the American League, the Houston Astros. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Athletics / Giants / Nationals / Phillies / Rangers.

Batters
It’s good news for Houston that young third baseman Matt Dominguez — acquired last July in a deal with Miami for Carlos Lee — that Dominguez is projected to post a roughly league-average WAR in 2013. What’s less good news for Houston is that Dominguez is projected to be the second-best player on the team — after Jose Altuve, that is.

Of note regarding Houston’s forecasts is this: there are a number of starters (or two, at least) whose plate-appearance projections are rather low. Shortstop Jed Lowrie (332 PA) and center fielder Justin Maxwell (358 PA), for example, could conceivably produce almost twice as many wins, were they to play something closer to full-time.

Pitchers
Only one Astros pitcher (left-handed reliever Wesley Wright) is projected to post an ERA- (that is, park-adjusted ERA relative to league-average) lower than 100. Otherwise, ZiPS foresees literally every other Houston pitcher allowing runs at an above-average rate.

That’s not to say that the club doesn’t have pieces. Right-handed starter Bud Norris has an excellent slider and has struck out almost a batter an inning over 97 career starts. Rotation mates Lucas Harrell, Jordan Lyles, and Alex White all posted ground-ball rates above 50% in 2012. Those are all positives, of course — and, if any of those pitchers makes gains in another area, he could become average or better. On a team level, however, the Astros look likely to be conceding quite a few runs in 2013.

Bench/Prospects
What Houston does have is a lot in the way of promising young players — both in the form of potential stars and also future role players. Both first baseman Jonathan Singleton and outfielder Robbie Grossman — ranked first and 11th among Houston prospects, according to Marc Hulet — could make their major-league debuts this summer, and both would likely represent an improvement over whomever they’d be replacing. Meanwhile, Delino Deshields Jr. and George Springer are already regarded as something better than replacement level by ZiPS, despite the fact they’re probably more than a season away from the majors.

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the Astros, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Jose Altuve	R	23	2B	672	85	178	33	6	9	49	33	14
Matt Dominguez	R	23	3B	596	64	139	27	2	14	66	0	1
Jed Lowrie	B	29	SS	332	39	74	17	1	11	37	2	0
Carlos Pena	L	35	1B	525	65	93	19	2	24	65	2	2
Jonathan Singleton	L	21	1B	574	81	116	23	4	19	65	6	2
Brandon Laird	R	25	3B	613	59	137	29	2	17	68	1	1
Justin Maxwell	R	29	CF	358	47	67	13	2	15	42	13	5
Jason Castro	L	26	C	384	44	81	16	1	6	35	1	1
Tyler Greene	R	29	2B	427	52	88	18	2	12	34	18	4
Jake Elmore	R	26	SS	555	56	120	22	3	2	39	19	9
Delino Deshields Jr.	R	20	2B	647	79	128	19	4	10	53	55	18
George Springer	R	23	CF	594	75	120	18	6	13	58	21	8
Che-Hsuan Lin	R	24	CF	552	61	121	15	4	2	30	20	7
Fernando Martinez	L	24	LF	439	50	97	21	2	14	45	1	2
Chris Snyder	R	32	C	245	25	43	7	0	7	30	0	0
Robbie Grossman	B	23	CF	628	83	123	25	4	10	50	12	9
Jonathan Villar	B	22	SS	512	56	99	13	4	10	44	31	11
Marwin Gonzalez	B	24	SS	418	41	96	20	2	3	30	6	4
Landon Powell	B	31	C	222	25	42	5	0	5	19	0	0
Brett Wallace	L	26	1B	604	67	132	26	1	17	63	1	1
J.D. Martinez	R	25	LF	578	61	134	26	2	11	71	1	2
Carlos Corporan	B	29	C	204	17	42	8	1	4	22	0	1
Domingo Santana	R	20	RF	556	61	110	25	4	14	55	6	1
Brandon Barnes	R	27	CF	575	59	112	29	3	12	54	10	5
Trevor Crowe	B	29	CF	357	37	79	16	3	3	29	14	6
J.B. Shuck	L	26	LF	520	58	118	15	5	0	31	12	8
Drew Locke	R	30	RF	418	43	91	20	2	9	47	4	2
Jimmy Paredes	B	24	2B	422	46	94	18	4	5	31	20	10
Nate Freiman	R	26	1B	604	63	131	29	1	16	74	1	1
Marc Krauss	L	25	LF	533	55	100	22	2	14	49	4	3

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Jose Altuve	672	5.5%	11.8%	.116	.315	.287	.330	.403	.319
Matt Dominguez	596	5.5%	14.3%	.132	.273	.251	.296	.383	.293
Jed Lowrie	332	10.2%	17.2%	.177	.276	.253	.331	.430	.331
Carlos Pena	525	14.9%	29.5%	.218	.265	.214	.341	.432	.334
Jonathan Singleton	574	13.4%	30.7%	.179	.322	.236	.338	.415	.327
Brandon Laird	613	4.7%	21.0%	.146	.277	.239	.279	.385	.287
Justin Maxwell	358	10.1%	35.5%	.196	.295	.211	.297	.407	.307
Jason Castro	384	9.9%	21.1%	.106	.293	.238	.316	.344	.290
Tyler Greene	427	7.5%	29.3%	.151	.305	.229	.297	.380	.296
Jake Elmore	555	9.9%	16.6%	.071	.297	.247	.325	.318	.287
Delino Deshields Jr.	647	8.3%	28.1%	.099	.303	.221	.294	.320	.278
George Springer	594	8.1%	34.8%	.129	.334	.224	.292	.353	.283
Che-Hsuan Lin	552	8.3%	15.4%	.059	.290	.244	.316	.303	.282
Fernando Martinez	439	5.5%	27.3%	.167	.306	.241	.297	.408	.303
Chris Snyder	245	13.5%	27.3%	.135	.269	.208	.324	.343	.290
Robbie Grossman	628	12.1%	26.0%	.117	.308	.229	.330	.346	.299
Jonathan Villar	512	7.4%	31.3%	.112	.305	.216	.280	.328	.268
Marwin Gonzalez	418	5.3%	14.6%	.085	.286	.249	.291	.334	.270
Landon Powell	222	9.9%	25.2%	.102	.270	.213	.294	.315	.268
Brett Wallace	604	7.0%	27.8%	.145	.317	.242	.311	.387	.303
J.D. Martinez	578	7.4%	22.1%	.120	.314	.254	.313	.374	.301
Carlos Corporan	204	5.4%	25.5%	.120	.290	.228	.282	.348	.266
Domingo Santana	556	6.8%	38.1%	.149	.340	.217	.284	.366	.287
Brandon Barnes	575	6.1%	31.3%	.134	.293	.211	.264	.345	.266
Trevor Crowe	357	7.0%	18.2%	.094	.291	.242	.296	.336	.278
J.B. Shuck	520	9.0%	11.7%	.053	.289	.252	.320	.305	.278
Drew Locke	418	5.7%	22.2%	.131	.284	.234	.282	.365	.281
Jimmy Paredes	422	3.8%	25.8%	.102	.309	.236	.265	.338	.261
Nate Freiman	604	6.5%	23.5%	.143	.288	.236	.293	.379	.292
Marc Krauss	533	9.8%	31.9%	.144	.295	.212	.293	.356	.286

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	WAR	No.1 Comp
Jose Altuve	672	5.1	101	-5	2.5	Steve Sax
Matt Dominguez	596	4.1	85	5	1.9	Brent Butler
Jed Lowrie	332	5.2	108	-2	1.8	Jim Lefebvre
Carlos Pena	525	5.0	111	-1	1.6	Jeromy Burnitz
Jonathan Singleton	574	5.0	106	-2	1.5	Cal Pickering
Brandon Laird	613	3.8	80	2	1.4	David Winfree
Justin Maxwell	358	4.2	91	2	1.3	Brad Komminsk
Jason Castro	384	3.8	82	0	1.2	Bob Henley
Tyler Greene	427	4.2	85	-2	1.2	Nick Green
Jake Elmore	555	3.7	78	-3	1.1	Peter Peltz
Delino Deshields Jr.	647	3.6	69	-2	0.9	Sibby Sisti
George Springer	594	3.7	76	0	0.9	Cameron Maybin
Che-Hsuan Lin	552	3.6	72	3	0.9	Joe Trippy
Fernando Martinez	439	4.2	92	3	0.8	Pedro Munoz
Chris Snyder	245	3.8	84	-1	0.8	Kelly Stinnett
Robbie Grossman	628	3.9	86	-6	0.7	Rich Becker
Jonathan Villar	512	3.4	67	-4	0.6	Buddy Biancalana
Marwin Gonzalez	418	3.4	72	-2	0.5	Jorge Velandia
Landon Powell	222	3.2	68	0	0.4	Chad Moeller
Brett Wallace	604	4.3	91	-2	0.4	Lyle Overbay
J.D. Martinez	578	4.2	88	-3	0.3	Brian Stavisky
Carlos Corporan	204	3.3	72	-2	0.2	Mike DiFelice
Domingo Santana	556	3.7	77	0	0.1	Wil Culmer
Brandon Barnes	575	3.1	66	-1	-0.1	Robert Jones
Trevor Crowe	357	3.6	74	-5	-0.1	Tony Diggs
J.B. Shuck	520	3.4	73	3	-0.1	Steve Stanley
Drew Locke	418	3.6	77	-2	-0.2	Tom Nevers
Jimmy Paredes	422	3.2	65	-3	-0.2	Bob Meacham
Nate Freiman	604	3.9	83	-4	-0.3	Leo Daigle
Marc Krauss	533	3.5	78	-4	-0.4	Orsino Hill

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Bud Norris	R	28	29	29	168.3	167	69	23	164	91	85
Lucas Harrell	R	28	29	27	153.3	101	67	14	166	87	81
Jordan Lyles	R	22	31	28	165.3	116	46	21	185	97	91
Wesley Wright	L	28	71	0	58.7	57	23	6	55	28	26
Jose Veras	R	32	68	0	64.0	68	35	7	59	32	30
Alex White	R	24	28	26	129.3	89	59	17	141	78	73
Edgar Gonzalez	R	30	22	18	95.3	61	28	11	112	57	53
John Ely	R	27	28	26	148.0	108	51	20	166	90	84
Fernando Rodriguez	R	29	66	0	70.7	78	35	9	67	37	35
Chia-Jen Lo	R	27	12	2	16.7	15	8	2	17	10	9
Xavier Cedeno	L	26	68	0	59.3	55	26	6	61	32	30
Philip Humber	R	30	27	20	123.0	88	38	20	139	77	72
Jose Cisnero	R	24	27	27	120.3	102	60	19	135	76	71
Sergio Escalona	L	28	47	0	38.3	31	18	5	41	22	21
Josh Fields	R	27	37	0	47.7	46	30	6	47	28	26
Francisco Cordero	R	38	48	0	44.3	32	17	6	50	27	25
Jose Valdez	R	30	43	0	43.7	40	18	6	47	27	25
Dallas Keuchel	L	25	29	29	157.0	80	53	19	191	103	96
Sam Demel	R	27	55	0	56.3	47	25	9	62	36	34
Rhiner Cruz	R	26	52	0	61.7	51	40	9	66	42	39
Hector Ambriz	R	29	49	0	63.3	49	35	8	73	43	40
Enerio Del Rosario	R	27	58	0	62.0	31	30	8	77	44	41
Brett Oberholtzer	L	23	27	27	145.7	94	56	22	177	102	95
Adalberto Flores	R	26	47	1	69.7	47	38	10	82	49	46
Asher Wojciechowski	R	24	25	24	117.7	67	50	18	149	85	79
Jarred Cosart	R	23	23	22	113.3	71	74	15	133	83	78
Paul Clemens	R	25	28	21	119.3	77	57	19	147	88	82
Rudy Owens	L	25	24	24	125.7	74	43	25	158	93	87
Ross Seaton	R	23	27	27	144.3	76	54	24	184	108	101

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Bud Norris	168.3	738	22.6%	9.4%	.298	4.54	4.15	112	102
Lucas Harrell	153.3	693	14.6%	9.7%	.300	4.75	4.28	117	105
Jordan Lyles	165.3	727	16.0%	6.3%	.305	4.95	4.25	122	104
Wesley Wright	58.7	254	22.4%	9.1%	.300	3.99	3.86	98	95
Jose Veras	64.0	286	23.8%	12.2%	.301	4.22	4.08	104	100
Alex White	129.3	588	15.1%	10.0%	.299	5.08	4.82	125	118
Edgar Gonzalez	95.3	426	14.3%	6.6%	.315	5.00	4.35	123	107
John Ely	148.0	661	16.3%	7.7%	.308	5.11	4.55	126	112
Fernando Rodriguez	70.7	314	24.8%	11.1%	.305	4.46	3.86	110	95
Chia-Jen Lo	16.7	75	20.0%	10.7%	.305	4.86	4.47	119	110
Xavier Cedeno	59.3	265	20.8%	9.8%	.314	4.55	3.87	112	95
Philip Humber	123.0	546	16.1%	7.0%	.301	5.27	4.78	130	117
Jose Cisnero	120.3	556	18.3%	10.8%	.318	5.31	5.17	130	127
Sergio Escalona	38.3	174	17.8%	10.4%	.308	4.93	4.74	121	116
Josh Fields	47.7	220	20.9%	13.6%	.303	4.91	4.81	121	118
Francisco Cordero	44.3	200	16.0%	8.5%	.308	5.08	4.56	125	112
Jose Valdez	43.7	196	20.4%	9.2%	.315	5.15	4.22	127	104
Dallas Keuchel	157.0	715	11.2%	7.4%	.310	5.50	4.76	135	117
Sam Demel	56.3	256	18.4%	9.8%	.308	5.43	4.84	133	119
Rhiner Cruz	61.7	291	17.5%	13.7%	.303	5.69	5.43	140	133
Hector Ambriz	63.3	298	16.4%	11.7%	.322	5.68	4.90	140	120
Enerio Del Rosario	62.0	293	10.6%	10.2%	.314	5.95	5.32	146	131
Brett Oberholtzer	145.7	670	14.0%	8.4%	.317	5.87	5.04	144	124
Adalberto Flores	69.7	329	14.3%	11.5%	.314	5.94	5.29	146	130
Asher Wojciechowski	117.7	552	12.1%	9.1%	.320	6.04	5.42	148	133
Jarred Cosart	113.3	547	13.0%	13.5%	.311	6.19	5.73	152	141
Paul Clemens	119.3	562	13.7%	10.1%	.319	6.18	5.46	152	134
Rudy Owens	125.7	578	12.8%	7.4%	.311	6.23	5.67	153	139
Ross Seaton	144.3	671	11.3%	8.0%	.316	6.30	5.45	155	134

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	WAR	No. 1 Comp
Bud Norris	168.3	8.93	3.69	1.23	89	1.5	Kip Wells
Lucas Harrell	153.3	5.93	3.93	0.82	85	0.9	Mike Dunne
Jordan Lyles	165.3	6.32	2.50	1.14	81	0.6	Wally Whitehurst
Wesley Wright	58.7	8.74	3.53	0.92	101	0.4	Mike Stanton
Jose Veras	64.0	9.56	4.92	0.98	95	0.3	Frank LaCorte
Alex White	129.3	6.19	4.11	1.18	79	0.3	Darin Blood
Edgar Gonzalez	95.3	5.76	2.64	1.04	80	0.3	Heath Totten
John Ely	148.0	6.57	3.10	1.22	79	0.3	Jason Davis
Fernando Rodriguez	70.7	9.93	4.46	1.15	90	0.1	Chris Schroder
Chia-Jen Lo	16.7	8.08	4.31	1.08	83	0.0	Jeff Jones
Xavier Cedeno	59.3	8.35	3.95	0.91	88	0.0	Brian Snyder
Philip Humber	123.0	6.44	2.78	1.46	76	-0.1	Shawn Boskie
Jose Cisnero	120.3	7.63	4.49	1.42	76	-0.1	Pete Fisher
Sergio Escalona	38.3	7.28	4.23	1.17	82	-0.2	Sean Fesh
Josh Fields	47.7	8.68	5.66	1.13	82	-0.2	Franklyn German
Francisco Cordero	44.3	6.50	3.45	1.22	79	-0.3	Terry Clark
Jose Valdez	43.7	8.24	3.71	1.24	78	-0.3	Doug Henry
Dallas Keuchel	157.0	4.59	3.04	1.09	73	-0.5	Jeff Mutis
Sam Demel	56.3	7.51	4.00	1.44	74	-0.6	Dan Kite
Rhiner Cruz	61.7	7.44	5.83	1.31	71	-0.8	Jason Gilfillan
Hector Ambriz	63.3	6.97	4.98	1.14	71	-0.9	Steve Green
Enerio Del Rosario	62.0	4.50	4.35	1.16	68	-1.0	Kevin Joseph
Brett Oberholtzer	145.7	5.81	3.46	1.36	69	-1.1	Andy Van Hekken
Adalberto Flores	69.7	6.07	4.91	1.29	68	-1.1	Sean Green
Asher Wojciechowski	117.7	5.12	3.82	1.38	67	-1.1	Omar Ortiz
Jarred Cosart	113.3	5.64	5.88	1.19	65	-1.3	Brett Laxton
Paul Clemens	119.3	5.81	4.30	1.43	65	-1.4	Matt Achilles
Rudy Owens	125.7	5.30	3.08	1.79	65	-1.5	Heath Phillips
Ross Seaton	144.3	4.74	3.37	1.50	64	-1.8	Matt Childers

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.