2013 ZiPS Projections – Philadelphia Phillies

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, will be released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Philadelphia Phillies. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Athletics / Giants / Nationals / Rangers.

Batters
Relative to the teams we’ve seen projected so far, Philadelphia appears to have more key players with relatively low playing-time projections. Chase Utley (450 PAs) and Ryan Howard (474 PAs), for example, will each make more than $15 million in 2013, and yet are forecast to make fewer than 500 plate appearances.

Also of note is how Carlos Ruiz, who led all Phillies in 2012 with a 5.5 WAR, will miss the season’s first 25 games (not accounted for in the projection below) due to a second positive amphetamine test. That will likely give Erik Kratz the starting job for April — although, after a 112 wRC+ and 1.4 WAR in just 157 plate appearances last season, Kratz projects to be more than mere replacement-level fodder.

Pitchers
It isn’t groundbreaking, but it is something like a fact, to say that Philadelphia’s top three starters are among the best in the league. Even with Roy Halladay’s struggles in 2012, the triumvirate still accounted for 12 wins between them — and ZiPS projects them more or less to repeat that performance in 2013. Where Vance Worley (133.1 IP, 1.9 WAR) and Joe Blanton (133.1 IP, 1.7 WAR) threw a lot of league-average innings behind them in 2012, however, neither of the Big Three’s likely rotation mates in 2013, Kyle Kendrick and John Lannan, is expected to pitch quite so well.

In the bullpen, the addition of Mike Adams — provided he recovers well from surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome in October — should be a positive one for the Phils, who now, with also Jonathan Papelbon and Antonio Bastardo, have three pitchers ideally suited for high-leverage situations.

Bench/Prospects
Now about 500 plate appearances into his major-league career, former top prospect Domonic Brown has been worth about a win below replacement. ZiPS isn’t particularly concerned, turns out, projecting Brown both to hit and field like an average major-league corner outfielder. Middle infielder Freddy Galvis is an asset because of his defense. After winning the Eastern League’s MVP award last season, corner-type Darin Ruf is poised to play at the major-league level this year. He’d probably make a pretty great platoon partner with Ryan Howard. That sort of thing is unlikely to happen, though.

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the Phillies, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Chase Utley	L	34	2B	450	59	99	18	3	14	57	12	1
Carlos Ruiz	R	34	C	421	46	105	25	0	10	52	2	0
Jimmy Rollins	B	34	SS	586	82	138	27	4	17	64	22	6
Ben Revere	L	25	CF	639	75	169	15	8	1	40	42	12
Domonic Brown	L	25	LF	497	59	118	25	4	18	60	12	7
Michael Young	R	36	3B	617	67	160	29	4	11	67	4	2
Freddy Galvis	B	23	2B	417	42	102	22	3	6	43	9	7
Erik Kratz	R	33	C	339	36	74	19	0	12	45	1	0
Ryan Howard	L	33	1B	474	57	101	19	2	23	89	1	0
Darin Ruf	R	26	1B	582	62	133	31	2	17	73	1	1
Kevin Frandsen	R	31	2B	516	53	131	27	2	4	43	4	4
Josh Fields	R	30	3B	375	47	85	17	3	8	41	5	2
Jermaine Mitchell	L	28	CF	544	63	110	19	9	7	42	14	10
Sebastian Valle	R	22	C	445	39	105	17	2	11	47	0	2
Tyson Gillies	L	24	CF	233	27	54	8	5	2	12	5	4
Ender Inciarte	L	22	CF	597	61	137	23	7	2	36	30	16
Laynce Nix	L	32	1B	226	24	48	13	1	7	28	0	1
John Mayberry	R	29	LF	478	57	109	24	1	15	55	7	2
Jake Fox	R	30	LF	304	33	66	17	1	10	41	0	0
Andres Blanco	B	29	SS	308	30	68	12	1	5	23	3	3
Cesar Hernandez	B	23	2B	588	54	149	21	10	2	50	20	14
Pete Orr	L	34	3B	435	43	94	17	4	6	35	14	5
Brian Schneider	L	36	C	138	13	28	6	0	2	12	0	0
Humberto Quintero	R	33	C	258	21	57	14	0	3	25	0	0
Tug Hulett	L	30	3B	389	39	82	18	3	5	36	5	3
Michael Martinez	B	30	SS	327	34	71	11	3	5	32	6	4
Zach Collier	L	22	CF	457	45	96	18	4	4	35	18	10
Jiwan James	B	24	CF	565	59	123	20	6	4	40	16	14
Ty Wigginton	R	35	1B	418	43	90	16	1	13	49	2	1
Kyle Hudson	L	26	CF	554	59	126	10	3	0	25	27	13
Mike Spidale	R	31	LF	432	40	113	12	2	2	28	13	8

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Chase Utley	450	10.4%	13.6%	.173	.272	.258	.358	.431	.344
Carlos Ruiz	421	9.0%	11.9%	.149	.305	.285	.367	.434	.340
Jimmy Rollins	586	8.5%	11.6%	.162	.269	.260	.323	.422	.324
Ben Revere	639	5.2%	9.4%	.057	.314	.285	.326	.342	.300
Domonic Brown	497	8.9%	20.9%	.196	.305	.265	.332	.461	.337
Michael Young	617	5.8%	13.1%	.122	.305	.279	.319	.401	.309
Freddy Galvis	417	4.1%	15.1%	.118	.298	.261	.297	.379	.289
Erik Kratz	339	7.1%	20.4%	.180	.272	.243	.307	.423	.312
Ryan Howard	474	10.1%	28.7%	.221	.298	.242	.325	.463	.327
Darin Ruf	582	7.6%	24.7%	.165	.316	.255	.321	.420	.321
Kevin Frandsen	516	3.1%	8.7%	.090	.293	.273	.311	.363	.290
Josh Fields	375	7.7%	25.1%	.138	.320	.250	.310	.388	.302
Jermaine Mitchell	544	9.2%	26.7%	.120	.307	.226	.301	.346	.283
Sebastian Valle	445	2.9%	30.8%	.127	.332	.246	.266	.373	.272
Tyson Gillies	233	4.3%	23.6%	.112	.331	.254	.304	.366	.289
Ender Inciarte	597	6.7%	14.4%	.079	.295	.252	.303	.331	.275
Laynce Nix	226	8.0%	27.0%	.175	.293	.233	.292	.408	.296
John Mayberry	478	6.9%	22.4%	.162	.294	.248	.303	.410	.309
Jake Fox	304	5.6%	20.1%	.177	.268	.238	.296	.415	.307
Andres Blanco	308	5.8%	16.6%	.103	.275	.240	.289	.343	.270
Cesar Hernandez	588	4.3%	18.0%	.085	.330	.270	.301	.355	.280
Pete Orr	435	4.4%	20.0%	.106	.281	.232	.276	.338	.269
Brian Schneider	138	7.2%	20.3%	.097	.274	.226	.292	.323	.268
Humberto Quintero	258	2.7%	21.7%	.093	.287	.232	.261	.325	.254
Tug Hulett	389	8.5%	21.1%	.112	.289	.234	.300	.346	.282
Michael Martinez	327	4.9%	16.5%	.106	.268	.234	.276	.340	.262
Zach Collier	457	6.3%	23.9%	.091	.299	.230	.286	.321	.266
Jiwan James	565	4.8%	30.3%	.083	.335	.234	.276	.317	.257
Ty Wigginton	418	8.1%	19.9%	.152	.271	.239	.306	.391	.303
Kyle Hudson	554	7.4%	22.0%	.032	.331	.251	.310	.283	.266
Mike Spidale	432	3.2%	13.0%	.054	.315	.276	.308	.330	.278

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	WAR	No.1 Comp
Chase Utley	450	5.9	112	5	3.4	Dick McAuliffe
Carlos Ruiz	421	6.1	116	1	3.3	Spud Davis
Jimmy Rollins	586	5.2	100	0	3.3	Billy Rogell
Ben Revere	639	4.6	82	7	2.2	Juan Pierre
Domonic Brown	497	5.6	112	0	1.9	Glenn Braggs
Michael Young	617	4.8	94	-8	1.4	Joe Randa
Freddy Galvis	417	4.0	81	7	1.3	Mark Lewis
Erik Kratz	339	4.7	95	-3	1.3	Keith McDonald
Ryan Howard	474	5.4	110	-5	1.1	George Foster
Darin Ruf	582	4.9	99	-2	1.0	Joe Vitiello
Kevin Frandsen	516	4.1	82	0	0.9	Manny Trillo
Josh Fields	375	4.4	88	-4	0.7	Bobby Knoop
Jermaine Mitchell	544	3.5	75	3	0.6	Herm Winningham
Sebastian Valle	445	3.5	71	-1	0.6	Tony Pena
Tyson Gillies	233	3.9	81	3	0.6	Gary Thomasson
Ender Inciarte	597	3.6	72	3	0.5	Lance Johnson
Laynce Nix	226	4.1	87	5	0.5	Dale Sveum
John Mayberry	478	4.5	91	-3	0.5	Matthew Cepicky
Jake Fox	304	4.4	90	-1	0.3	Chris Widger
Andres Blanco	308	3.4	70	-1	0.3	Kevin Baez
Cesar Hernandez	588	3.8	77	-3	0.2	Manuel Lee
Pete Orr	435	3.4	65	0	0.2	Dan Rohn
Brian Schneider	138	3.3	66	-1	0.1	Tony Pena
Humberto Quintero	258	3.0	57	0	0.1	Charlie Greene
Tug Hulett	389	3.6	74	-4	0.1	Rodney Nye
Michael Martinez	327	3.2	66	-3	-0.1	Pablo Martinez
Zach Collier	457	3.2	64	0	-0.2	Mel Hall
Jiwan James	565	2.8	60	5	-0.2	Randy Winn
Ty Wigginton	418	4.3	87	-5	-0.3	Carl Everett
Kyle Hudson	554	3.2	62	0	-0.3	Milt Thompson
Mike Spidale	432	3.7	73	0	-0.4	Gene Clines

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Cliff Lee	L	34	28	28	200.0	198	29	20	184	73	68
Cole Hamels	L	29	31	30	204.0	201	49	23	180	79	74
Roy Halladay	R	36	26	26	179.0	154	32	16	172	73	68
Kyle Kendrick	R	28	33	22	140.0	88	40	18	144	72	67
Jonathan Papelbon	R	32	63	0	63.7	83	18	6	50	21	20
John Lannan	L	28	30	30	167.0	101	72	16	184	90	84
Mike Adams	R	34	62	0	56.0	55	17	5	49	20	19
Julio Rodriguez	R	22	28	23	133.0	126	75	15	125	72	67
Antonio Bastardo	L	27	61	0	50.3	69	23	5	38	19	18
Jonathan Pettibone	R	22	26	26	144.3	91	52	16	161	82	77
Raul Valdes	L	35	39	4	61.7	59	15	8	61	30	28
Justin De Fratus	R	25	47	0	55.0	51	20	6	52	26	24
Tyler Cloyd	R	26	30	27	154.3	102	48	22	169	90	84
Michael Schwimer	R	27	53	0	62.3	62	27	7	59	30	28
Jose Contreras	R	41	18	0	15.3	14	5	2	15	7	7
Jeremy Horst	L	27	52	0	65.3	54	29	6	68	34	32
Michael Stutes	R	26	36	0	42.3	40	24	5	39	22	21
Justin Friend	R	27	50	0	53.7	44	27	5	57	30	28
Phillippe Aumont	R	24	55	0	56.0	58	41	6	52	32	30
Jake Diekman	L	26	54	0	55.0	56	45	5	51	32	30
Cesar Jimenez	L	28	29	0	44.3	34	23	4	50	27	25
Joe Savery	L	27	42	0	50.3	33	19	6	56	30	28
B.J. Rosenberg	R	27	38	7	73.7	61	33	11	81	47	44
Pat Misch	L	31	23	21	115.7	62	35	17	139	75	70
Brandon Erbe	R	25	15	5	32.3	21	21	5	39	25	23
Zach Miner	R	31	25	6	46.3	26	30	7	53	33	31
J.C. Ramirez	R	24	46	0	62.0	41	37	8	68	41	38
Ethan Martin	R	24	29	20	111.3	91	88	22	123	89	83

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Cliff Lee	200.0	813	24.4%	3.6%	.291	3.06	2.88	78	73
Cole Hamels	204.0	841	23.9%	5.8%	.279	3.26	3.34	83	85
Roy Halladay	179.0	741	20.8%	4.3%	.292	3.42	3.12	87	80
Kyle Kendrick	140.0	604	14.6%	6.6%	.279	4.31	4.41	110	112
Jonathan Papelbon	63.7	259	32.0%	6.9%	.295	2.83	2.61	72	67
John Lannan	167.0	757	13.3%	9.5%	.299	4.53	4.48	116	114
Mike Adams	56.0	234	23.5%	7.3%	.282	3.05	3.20	78	82
Julio Rodriguez	133.0	599	21.0%	12.5%	.293	4.53	4.52	116	115
Antonio Bastardo	50.3	212	32.6%	10.9%	.292	3.22	3.08	82	78
Jonathan Pettibone	144.3	646	14.1%	8.1%	.303	4.80	4.52	122	115
Raul Valdes	61.7	261	22.6%	5.7%	.301	4.09	3.69	104	94
Justin De Fratus	55.0	237	21.5%	8.4%	.293	3.93	3.80	100	97
Tyler Cloyd	154.3	680	15.0%	7.1%	.295	4.90	4.72	125	120
Michael Schwimer	62.3	273	22.7%	9.9%	.299	4.04	3.91	103	100
Jose Contreras	15.3	66	21.2%	7.6%	.296	4.11	4.14	105	106
Jeremy Horst	65.3	293	18.4%	9.9%	.309	4.41	4.06	113	104
Michael Stutes	42.3	190	21.1%	12.6%	.286	4.46	4.51	114	115
Justin Friend	53.7	245	18.0%	11.0%	.315	4.70	4.34	120	111
Phillippe Aumont	56.0	261	22.2%	15.7%	.303	4.82	4.72	123	120
Jake Diekman	55.0	261	21.5%	17.2%	.307	4.91	4.80	125	123
Cesar Jimenez	44.3	206	16.5%	11.2%	.324	5.08	4.36	130	111
Joe Savery	50.3	226	14.6%	8.4%	.303	5.01	4.59	128	117
B.J. Rosenberg	73.7	335	18.2%	9.8%	.311	5.38	4.93	137	126
Pat Misch	115.7	521	11.9%	6.7%	.305	5.45	4.97	139	127
Brandon Erbe	32.3	157	13.4%	13.4%	.315	6.40	5.94	163	152
Zach Miner	46.3	222	11.7%	13.5%	.295	6.02	5.95	154	152
J.C. Ramirez	62.0	291	14.1%	12.7%	.299	5.52	5.39	141	137
Ethan Martin	111.3	545	16.7%	16.1%	.301	6.71	6.59	171	168

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	WAR	No. 1 Comp
Cliff Lee	200.0	8.91	1.31	0.90	127	4.9	Jeff Fassero
Cole Hamels	204.0	8.87	2.16	1.01	119	4.4	Teddy Higuera
Roy Halladay	179.0	7.74	1.61	0.80	113	3.6	Mike Mussina
Kyle Kendrick	140.0	5.66	2.57	1.16	90	1.2	Jeff Heathcock
Jonathan Papelbon	63.7	11.73	2.54	0.85	137	1.2	Robb Nen
John Lannan	167.0	5.44	3.88	0.86	86	1.1	Jimmy Anderson
Mike Adams	56.0	8.84	2.73	0.80	127	0.9	Mike Maddux
Julio Rodriguez	133.0	8.53	5.08	1.02	85	0.8	Courtney Duncan
Antonio Bastardo	50.3	12.35	4.12	0.89	120	0.7	Ryne Duren
Jonathan Pettibone	144.3	5.68	3.24	1.00	81	0.4	Steve Kelly
Raul Valdes	61.7	8.61	2.19	1.17	95	0.4	Bob Patterson
Justin De Fratus	55.0	8.35	3.27	0.98	99	0.3	Randy St. Claire
Tyler Cloyd	154.3	5.95	2.80	1.28	79	0.3	Tony McKnight
Michael Schwimer	62.3	8.96	3.90	1.01	96	0.2	Jorge Vasquez
Jose Contreras	15.3	8.24	2.94	1.18	94	0.0	Doug Brocail
Jeremy Horst	65.3	7.44	4.00	0.83	88	-0.1	Joe Klink
Michael Stutes	42.3	8.51	5.11	1.06	87	-0.1	Brad Voyles
Justin Friend	53.7	7.37	4.53	0.84	83	-0.2	Paul Schneider
Phillippe Aumont	56.0	9.32	6.59	0.96	80	-0.3	Chris Schroder
Jake Diekman	55.0	9.16	7.36	0.82	79	-0.4	Scott Wiggins
Cesar Jimenez	44.3	6.91	4.67	0.81	76	-0.4	Joey Long
Joe Savery	50.3	5.90	3.40	1.07	77	-0.4	Brian Henderson
B.J. Rosenberg	73.7	7.45	4.03	1.34	72	-0.6	Doug Sessions
Pat Misch	115.7	4.82	2.72	1.32	71	-0.6	Andrew Lorraine
Brandon Erbe	32.3	5.85	5.85	1.39	61	-0.6	Mark Hampton
Zach Miner	46.3	5.05	5.83	1.36	64	-0.7	Elmer Riddle
J.C. Ramirez	62.0	5.95	5.37	1.16	70	-0.9	Sean Green
Ethan Martin	111.3	7.36	7.12	1.78	58	-2.3	Mike Romano

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.