2013 ZiPS Projections, courtesy of Dan Szymborski, are now available in the projections pages in the player pages!
Please note that WAR as calculated on the projection pages and the player pages will differ from the original 30 reports. The projection and player pages use our in-house WAR calculations, where the original reports included Dan Szymborski original WAR projections.
Episode 311
Dave Cameron analyzes an amount of baseball that is ca. two standard deviations above the mean with regard to how much baseball is analyzed. Discussed this week: outfield alignment, the importance of; the Yankees outfield situation following Curtis Granderson’s injury; projections and fan enthusiasm.
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.
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Audio after the jump. (Approximately 36 min play time.)
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A lot of people wrote Neil Walker off as a bust before he even had a chance to prove himself in the majors. First, he was a failed catcher. Then, he was a failed third baseman. He needed two years at Triple-A, and didn’t stick in the majors until the age of 24, in his seventh professional season and at his third professional defensive position.
But then a funny thing happened — Walker started producing. Now, he’s one of Pittsburgh’s best players. Last year, when Andrew McCutchen signed his long-term deal, some wondered if Walker would get his as well, but the Pirates wisely waited to see if Walker would produce a similar season in 2012. Since he did, talk about an extension has resurfaced. Is Walker good enough to deserve such an extension? And just what would an extension look like?
All offseason long, there were questions regarding whether or not the Yankees had done enough. The Yankees, understandably, have been confident in themselves, but the media has expressed its share of doubt. That was with the Yankees as previously constructed. Now the Yankees are constructed differently, with one fewer Curtis Granderson, as the outfielder was hit by a pitch over the weekend and is now out for about 10 weeks. On one hand, it’s the right time for an injury, since spring training is just getting started. On the other hand, days into spring training, the Yankees have been confronted by a major injury that’ll carry over into May. The road to the playoffs has gotten all the more bumpy, and the Yankees are left considering what options they have for a temporary fill-in.
There’s not much on the active roster. There’s not much off the active roster, either, and right now the third Yankees’ outfielder probably stands to be Juan Rivera or Matt Diaz. As general managers always say, Brian Cashman said he’ll look at everything. As general managers also almost always say, Cashman said for the time being, replacement options are internal. The Yankees do have all spring to figure something out.
The idea for this post came about from reports last week that the Yankees were considering flipping Brett Gardner and Curtis Granderson on defense, with Gardner taking over in center and Granderson shifting to left field. Of course, Granderson had his forearm broken by a J.A. Happ fastball yesterday, so now the decision has been made for the Yankees, as Gardner will start the season in center field. However, the Yankees will still have to decide what to do when Granderson returns from the DL in May, and they aren’t the only team looking at pairing a couple of center fielder in their outfield this year.
The Angels are shifting Mike Trout to left field because they’re going to give Peter Bourjos a chance to play regularly. The Indians are moving Michael Brantley to left field because they signed Michael Bourn. The A’s are going to use Chris Young all over the outfield because they have Coco Crisp already. In some cases — Trout and Bourjos, for instance — the defensive excellence of both means that there’s probably no wrong answer, as either could play center field and have it look like the right decision. But, in New York, the question was a little more interesting, as Gardner is generally considered to be a better defensive player, and flipping their positions was a consideration based upon improving the overall defensive quality of the Yankees outfield.
It makes sense, after all, to have your best defenders play where the ball is going to be hit the most often, but how much does it actually matter? What’s the magnitude of the difference between having Gardner in center and Granderson in left versus the alignment the Yankees have run out the last few years?
Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.
1. The Best Players per Steamer Without Starting Roles
2. Mostly Unhelpful Video: Bobby Scales, Defensing
The Best Players per Steamer Without Starting Roles
Last week, the author used his unparalleled capacity for “sorting through leaderboards” to identify the top forecasts for rookie-eligible players, according to the ZiPS and Steamer and FAN projection systems — where “top” was equivalent to “highest projected WAR” and nothing else.
What follows is the product of a very similar exercise — except for, instead of identifying the top rookie-eligible players, the author has identified the best field players per Steamer who are currently without a starting role.
Below are the 14 players (because there was a considerable tie for seventh place) who most aptly fit that description. Below that are some brief comments by the author to give the impression that he has not merely assembled a Table of Numbers.
First, though, five notes:
1. “Best” in the context of this exercise is equivalent to “projected WAR per every 650 plate appearances.”
The two things everyone loves about the off-season are hot-stove rumors and prospect lists. The beginning of Spring Training marks the end of hot-stove season — outside a very lonely Kyle Loshe — and gives us our first glance at the young phenoms we spend the off-season debating. Today, let’s look at teams that have the best one-two pitching punches coming down the prospect pipeline.
Jordan Pacheco proved last season that he belongs in the big leagues. In his first full year with the Colorado Rockies, he hit .309/.341/.421, with 32 doubles and five home runs. He appeared in 82 games as a third baseman, 43 at as a first baseman, and five as a catcher.
This year he is in spring training with his future in limbo. Todd Helton and Chris Nelson are tentatively slated to man the infield corners, and fellow 2012 rookie Wilin Rosario is behind the plate. The 27-year-old Pacheco has value, but whether he will be a starter or utility player is unclear.
——
David Laurila: Did you establish yourself as a big leaguer last year?
Jordan Pacheco: Not at all. I don’t think one season does that. I think it helps you for the next year, at least as far as not putting a lot of pressure on yourself. When you first come up, you have a lot to prove. That said, I probably have even more to prove now. I have to show I can do it again, year in and year out. I have to go out and earn a roster spot.
DL: You’ve changed positioned since entering pro ball. Has that held you back?
JP: I don’t think so. I was drafted as a middle infielder and they moved me to catcher, but I’ve been catching for four years. I don’t think it held me back at all. I just think getting to the big leagues is a lot of luck. You have to be in the right place at the right time, and when you get that opportunity, you have to take advantage of it.
DL: How did you go from middle infielder to catcher? Read the rest of this entry »
The Phillies organization has a pair of impressive left-handed arms at the top of the list, followed by some interesting, but largely inexperienced, prospects.
#1 Jesse Biddle (P)
| Age | G | GS | IP | H | HR | K/9 | BB/9 | ERA | FIP |
| 20 | 26 | 26 | 142.2 | 129 | 10 | 9.53 | 3.41 | 3.22 | 3.24 |
The Phillies organization has developed some interesting arms in recent years with the likes of Jarred Cosart (traded to Houston), Brody Colvin (regressed), and Biddle — who has risen to the top of the organization. The lefty has a big, strong frame and has been durable throughout his three-year career, pitching more than 134 innings each of the last two years. The former first round draft pick has a four-pitch repertoire and his best offering is an 88-93 mph fastball. Biddle, 21, also has a promising curveball, as well as a slider and changeup.
