Archive for February, 2013

How Tommy John Surgery Helped George Kontos

Tommy John surgery might have been the best thing that could have happened to George Kontos. In 2009, the Giants’ right-hander was in Triple-A for the first time, and he had the kind of stuff that would make him a big leaguer in somebody’s bullpen: A 92-mph fastball and a wipeout slider that usually produced more than a strikeout per inning. That isn’t to say that he didn’t have some of the flaws inherent with a fastball/slider guy with only passable control, but he was well on his way. Then he felt that signature elbow pain, went under the knife, and a year and a half later, the reliever came out from the experience having changed two important facets of his game for the better.

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Ngayaw Ake and Three Sluggers from Team Chinese Taipei

Let’s talk World Baseball Classic.Chinese Taipei Olympic Flag

I believe one of the key impediments preventing American and Canadian baseball fans from true excitement about the WBC has to do with limited knowledge of foreign players. We are, as some economists might say, rationally uninformed. To learn the necessary statistics and fun bits about the teams and players would take too much time and effort, considering the difficulty language barriers present.

Lo and behold! I happen to speak and, to a lesser extent, read Chinese! Allow me to act as your conduit; your semi-skilled cultural guide for, if nothing else, the Chinese-speaking teams. Allow me to not only translate some of their more useful statistics, but also present some slices of their personalities.

Let’s examine three of Taiwan’s best hitters: (1) Ngayaw Ake, (2) Yi-Chuan Lin, and (3) Szu-Chi Chou:

Top wOBA+ Numbers*, 2009-2012

Player Pinyin Name 2009 2010 2011 2012 Average WBC?
周 思 齊 Zhou Siqi (this is Chou) 111 133 130 137 128 Yes!
張 泰 山 Zhang Taishan 117 145 128 117 127 No.
張 正 偉 Zhang Zhengwei   111 145 116 124 No.
林 益 全 Lin Yiquan (this is Lin) 145 108 107 130 123 Yes!
林 智 勝 Lin Zhisheng (this is Ake) 128 128 105 128 122 Yes!

*Not park adjusted.
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Carson Cistulli Internet Computer Chat – 2/19/13


Daily Notes: Spring Broadcast Schedule Begins Saturday

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Spring Broadcast Schedule Begins Saturday
2. Mostly Unhelpful Video: Anthony Rendon, Homering

Spring Broadcast Schedule Begins Saturday
MLB.com has released the (tentative) schedule for all the spring-training broadcasts available through MLB.TV — which broadcasts are accessible via a number of connected devices, including PlayStation 3, XBOX 360, Roku, and Apple TV.

The schedule in question is available by clicking this hyperlinked text. Furthermore, by way of cultivating our collective enthusiasm, the author has reprinted below the first four games of the spring broadcast schedule (which starts on Saturday, February 23rd) and made note both of notable offseason arrivals and prospects in camp.

Washington at New York NL | 12:10 ET
• Notable offseason arrivals: Dan Haren, Rafael Soriano, Denard Span (Washington); John Buck, Collin Cowgill, Travis D’Arnaud, Shaun Marcum (New York).
• Notable prospects in camp: Anthony Rendon, Matt Skole (Washington); D’Arnaud, Wilmer Flores, Rafael Montero, Zack Wheeler (New York).
• Other notes: former pitcher and current first baseman Micah Owings has been invited to big league camp for the Nationals. Third base prospect Carlos Rivero was among the top hitters in the Venezuelan Winter League.

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Felix Hernandez’s Velocity

Last week, the Seattle Mariners inked their ace, Felix Hernandez, to a $175 million extension for the next seven years. The dominating righty will be entering his age-27 season this year, meaning the contract will through his age-33 season. That is, unless, he injures his right elbow.

Embedded within Hernandez’s contract is a clause that gives the Mariners a club option for an eighth season — at a paltry $1 million — should Hernandez miss at least 130 consecutive days due to any kind of procedure to his right elbow. The Mariners negotiated this clause after some concern over what their doctors saw in the pitcher’s MRI.

Apparently, the club was reassured enough by their medical staff to sign the mammoth deal, even though the track record for long-term pitcher extensions isn’t the greatest. But how confident should the team be?
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Now Available: Full 2013 ZiPS Projections Spreadsheet

Note: if Google spreadsheet below isn’t working, click here for one the author has uploaded himself after having modified only slightly from Szymborski’s original.

With the release last Thursday of the ZiPS projections for the Cleveland Indians, now all 30 major-league teams have been caressed tenderly by proprietor Dan Szymborski’s math computer.

While we wait — as if sitting atop some combination of pins and needles — for ZiPS to be added to the projection leaderboard area here at the site, Szymborski has released a spreadsheet including all the ZiPS projections for 2013.

Click this hyperlinked text to visit the full spreadsheet for the 2013 ZiPS projections.

In the meantime, some observations:

• Highest Projected WAR (Field Players): Mike Trout, 8.0

• Most Defensive Runs Saved: Craig Gentry, +15

• Highest Projected WAR (Pitchers): Justin Verlander, 6.4

• Lowest ERA: Craig Kimbrel, 1.57

• Yankees Prospect Corban Joseph: 579 PA, .242/.313/.389, 87 OPS+, 1.0 WAR


Q&A: Ryan O’Rourke, Twins Future LOOGY

Ryan O’Rourke isn’t as talented as some of his 2012 teammates, nor is his future as bright as many of the hitters he faced in the Midwest League. The Minnesota Twins pitching prospect is realistic about his strengths and weaknesses, with no illusions of becoming the next Frank Viola. He does, however, intend to pitch in the big leagues.

A 13th-round pick in 2010 out of Merrimack College [Massachusetts], the 24-year-old southpaw transitioned to a bullpen role last year in low-A Beloit and high-A Fort Myers. Effective against left-handed hitters, he features multiple arm slots, a pair of sliders, and good control. In 227 minor-league innings he has walked just 2.3 batters per nine innings. His strikeout rate is an equally impressive 8.6.

O’Rourke talked about his path to the big leagues, as well as a pair of notable Beloit teammates — Miguel Sano and Eddie Rosario — and what it is like to pitch to Oscar Taveras and Christian Yelich.

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O’Rourke on his targeted role:
“My pitches are more conducive to getting left-handers out, so my clearest path to the big leagues is going to be the LOOGY role. My lefty-lefty breaking balls — from what I hear and what my reports say — are pretty good. They’re definitely serviceable at high levels, so I want to focus on being more of a lefty specialist.

“The Twins are pretty adamant about putting me in that role and seeing if I can have the kind of success that warrants a call-up. They have a few lefties up there now, but not LOOGY types. Glen Perkins is more of a closer. He’s out there throwing 97, with the ball jumping out of his hand. Tyler Robertson can go multiple innings. My job would be to come in and get that one key lefty out.”

On his repertoire: “I throw both a two- and four-seamer. If I’m going arm side it’s usually a two, and if I’m going away it’s usually a four, because my four cuts a little bit. I’ve topped out at 94, but usually sit between 89 and 91. That about average for a major-league lefty, so I have enough of a fastball. I just need to work down with it consistently.

“I have two different sliders. Read the rest of this entry »


Oakland Athletics Top 15 Prospects (2012-13)

The emergence of Addison Russell gives the organization a potential corner-stone talent to eventually build around. The last two drafts have also added some depth into a system that has been slowly depleted over time.

 

#1 Addison Russell (SS)


Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
18 244 79 10 7 23 48 16 .364 .428 .590 .456

Russell exploded in his first taste of pro ball after being selected 11th overall by the A’s during the 2012 amateur draft. He played at three levels where he combined to hit .369 and posted a 1.027 OPS in 55 games. Russell, 19, has above-average bat speed, a good eye at the plate and professional coaching helped him become more consistent with his swing. A contact I spoke with said the young hitter had an amazing debut. “He torched the baseball offensively at every level… controlling the zone while hitting rockets all over the diamond. His swing is short, compact and powerful,” he said.

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Effectively Wild Episode 143: 2013 Season Preview Series: Atlanta Braves

Ben and Sam preview the Braves’ season with Zachary Levine, and Pete talks to Atlanta Journal-Constitution sports columnist Mark Bradley (at 16:42).


FanGraphs Audio: Dave Cameron Analyzes ca. 93% of Baseball

Episode 308
Dave Cameron analyzes less than his customary percentage of all baseball this week, but still manages a decidedly above-average performance. Discussed this week: variations on the theme of projections.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 38 min play time.)

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