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Some time ago, Brandon McCarthy asked a question about first pitches of seasons. McCarthy is neat and fun and smart and good and he recently dropped a FanGraphs reference in an article, so we pay attention to McCarthy, and to his question we issued a response. McCarthy was asking about offspeed frequency with the first pitch of a season. Turns out offspeed pitches are almost never thrown to begin a year, or at least that’s been the case during the PITCHf/x era. Things might’ve been the opposite before and we’d have no way of knowing because all that information is inaccessible if not unavailable and/or non-existent. It stands to reason that the fastball has always been the popular pick to kick things off.

McCarthy’s question got me interested in McCarthy’s question, but it also got me personally interested in first pitches of seasons in general. What gets thrown, where does it get thrown, and what do hitters do? As of Tuesday, every team in baseball has now played at least one game of the 2013 regular season. So every season is underway, so we can assemble a complete record of 2013’s first pitches. Are you also curious about these things? Are you not at all curious, but can you not pull yourself away from this article? Below, please find a thorough table, followed by more stuff commenting directly or indirectly on the table.

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With the closest Padres affiliate nearly 10 hours away from the Atlanta area, spring training is my only opportunity to scout Padres prospects. Last week, Dave Laurila and I tag teamed a piece on top catching prospect Austin Hedges. And while he was the most impressive position prospect in the organization, a pair of right handers ruled the day. Read the rest of this entry »

Jack did a good job this morning dissecting the adjustments Yu Darvish has made and how those have paid off in a big way, but there was one thing he didn’t mention that Darvish is also doing now – throwing harder.

Here are the average velocities for Darvish’s pitches from 2012 and then last night, per PitchF/x:

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Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. An Idle Thought on Imperfection
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages

An Idle Thought on Imperfection
Inspecting Tuesday’s single-game xFIP leaderboard (among starting pitchers only) — a thing which is now possible after FanGraphs CEO and star of every nightmare David Appelman added a “Yesterday” split to the leaderboards here at the site — one is not surprised, in the wake of his 14-strikeout effort against Houston, to find Yu Darvish’s name at the top.

One is also compelled to note in how many ways Darvish’s game was imperfect — an imperfection that is amplified, undoubtedly, for its proximity to perfection.

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Prospect lists are one of the best parts of the off-season. Marc Hulet published his top 100 yesterday as the culmination of several months of work, and Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Keith Law, John Sickels and a plethora of websites have published others. Each group puts myriad hours into analyzing, calling, writing, editing, re-analyzing and finally publishing their work. But even after all that, they usually come to several different conclusions. I decided — instead of focusing on a specific list — to generate a list that combined each of these lists into one.

The idea of community or consensus lists isn’t new. Sites have done it before, but I’ve added some wrinkles:

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Ben and Sam answer listener emails about whether we should let where and for how much a player signs influence how we expect him to play, then revisit their team predictions from the end of last season and discuss what started the sabermetric revolution.

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Marwin Gonzalez earned his hit to break up Yu Darvish’s perfect game last night. Darvish left a 90 MPH four-seam fastball out over the plate, and Gonzalez hit it hard back up the middle, just under Darvish’s glove. It was a mistake pitch. It was the only one from the 26-year-old Darvish last night in Houston.

For 26 batters, Darvish carved through the Astros lineup in his best start since his much-anticipated MLB debut last season. The 6-foot-5 righty struck out 14 of those 26 before Gonzalez finally managed to reach base safely. Darvish created lofty expectations with a tremendous run in his last eight starts of 2012 — 57.1 innings with a 2.35 ERA and 67-to-15 strikeout-to-walk ratio — and the adjustments he made late last year were present in his masterpiece last night.

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Archie Bradley misses bats. The Arizona Diamondbacks pitching prospect averaged 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings last year in the Midwest League. It wasn’t a fluke. Drafted seventh overall in 2011 out of Broken Arrow [Oklahoma] High School, the now-20-year-old right-hander has the best fastball in the D-Backs’ system — and a plus curveball.

He also misses the strike zone. At least that was the case last summer when he walked 5.6 batters per nine innings. He allowed just 5.8 hits, and only six home runs in 136 innings, so his performance was, in many ways, a pitcher’s version of three-true-outcomes.

With improved command, Bradley profiles as a front-line starter. Along with overpowering stuff, the former prep quarterback — he could have played football at the University of Oklahoma — gets high grades for his leadership skills. Marc Hulet rates him as baseball’s 26th-best prospect. Baseball America rates him a tick higher, at No. 25.

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David Laurila: How would you describe your mechanics?

Archie Bradley: Ever since I figured out that pitching was something I could do, I’ve had a high leg kick. My hands have always been high. For the most part, people have told me [my delivery] is uncommon. It’s tough to repeat, but for me it works. I found a way to stay consistent with it, and I enjoy it.

It’s all about timing. Everything about pitching is timing and consistency. It’s all about the control of the leg kick more than anything. Sometimes I’ll get a little quick — as in throwing it up or throwing it down — but when I control it up and down, I’m usually pretty consistent.

DL: Your walk rate was high last year. Why? Read the rest of this entry »