Jonathan Papelbon: Buyer Beware
Peter Gammons, as he so often does, teased an interesting tidbit yesterday morning, this one concerning Philliers closer Jonathan Papelbon. To wit:
Archive for July, 2013
Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 7/9/13
| 8:59 |
: Hello, and we’ll get started in just a few minutes
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| 9:02 |
It seems too “on time” please push it back |
| 9:02 |
: That’s why I’m still finishing up my breakfast, even after 9am rolls by
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| 9:02 |
: I could stress out about this, or…
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| 9:02 |
What are the odds the Mariners try and sell high on Iwakuma and flip him for highly touted prospects that flame out in two years? |
| 9:03 |
: Just don’t see it happening. The team isn’t that far away — pretty much no team is that far away — and Iwakuma is a really good value. Good luck replacing that value. Not saying it wouldn’t make some sense, but that’s a good situation that doesn’t need to be interrupted
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Bartolo Colon’s Biggest Misses
Bartolo Colon was strong again Monday night, as the A’s knocked off the host Pirates 2-1. Of his 108 pitches, 78 were strikes. He walked one batter out of the 30 he faced. As a consequence, Colon’s season walk rate went up.
Colon, maybe, doesn’t have the best command of any starting pitcher — but it’s close, and that much is something of a miracle, considering where Colon went and how he came back. Colon basically throws a ton of fastballs — his rate is the same as Aroldis Chapman’s — and only Cliff Lee has thrown a higher rate of strikes. Few pitchers have thrown a higher rate of first-pitch strikes. Colon’s walk rate is a tick above 3%, and no one’s thrown a higher rate of pitches in the zone. Though Colon’s far from unhittable, he succeeds by pounding the zone relentlessly and he forces the batter to supply the damage. It might be a simple formula, but Colon makes it work, thanks to his command of his pitches.
So I thought we’d look at his wildest pitches. Sometimes a technique to examine a guy’s success can be by looking at his failures. Which has been Colon’s lowest pitch of the season? What about his highest? What about most inside and most outside? What, if anything, can we learn from these pitches? I’ll admit, I’m kind of going into this blind, but I have confidence we can learn something. So let’s pay tribute to Colon’s ability to throw strikes by looking at him throw some balls.
Daily Notes: Statistical Update on 2013’s First-Round Picks
July 9, 2013
Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.
1. Statistical Update on 2013’s First-Round Picks
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule
Statistical Update on 2013’s First-Round Picks
The Purpose of This Post
The purpose of this post is to announce that the author has updated the custom leaderboard featuring every first-round pick from the most recent draft both to have signed and also played for an affiliate of the relevant drafting team.
FanGraphs Audio: Tony Cingrani on His Fastball, For Example
July 9, 2013
Episode 359
Tony Cingrani is a young and talented left-handed pitcher for the Cincinnati Reds whose fastball induces swings and misses at a rate above league average. He’s also the guest on this edition of FanGraphs Audio.
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.
You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.
Audio after the jump. (Approximately 10 min play time.)
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In Depth With Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Jarrod Saltalamacchia has come a long way behind the plate. “Salty” isn’t among the elite at his position, but he’s developed into a solid defensive catcher. He is certainly among the most cerebral. Once looked at as an offense-first backstop, he is playing a key role in the success of a Boston Red Sox pitching staff that is exceeding expectations.
Originally a first-round pick by the Atlanta Braves in 2003, the 28-year-old switch-hitter was acquired by the Red Sox from the Texas Rangers in 2010 and has been the team’s primary catcher for the past two seasons. He discussed the nuances of his craft — and several members of the Boston pitching staff — prior to a recent game at Fenway Park.
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Effectively Wild Episode 239: Carlos Gomez and the NL MVP Race/The Cubs and Trading Recently Signed Free Agents
July 9, 2013
Ben and Sam discuss Carlos Gomez’ valuable season and the Cubs’ willingness to trade players they recently signed as free agents.
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FanGraphs Audio: Dave Cameron Analyzes All Nolasco Trade
July 8, 2013
Episode 358
Dave Cameron is both (a) the managing editor of FanGraphs and (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio — during which edition he analyzes mostly the trade by Miami to the Los Angeles Nationals of Ricky Nolasco.
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.
You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.
Audio after the jump. (Approximately 35 min play time.)
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
Subscribe: RSS
The Best Non-All-Star Seasons of the Past 50 Years
This past weekend, we learned the rosters for the 2013 MLB All-Star Game. Perhaps more popular than the game itself is the practice of complaining about who did and didn’t make it, and so there are countless articles talking about snubs, and whatnot. One does have to note the absence of both Evan Longoria and Josh Donaldson, who currently rank sixth and seventh in baseball in WAR. Each would be a deserving representative, as each has a compelling case for eligibility. But, to be fair, it’s unclear just what the All-Star Game is supposed to reward, and over the past calendar year, Donaldson’s WAR rank drops to ninth, while Longoria’s drops to 14th. Wait, I don’t think that made the intended point.
Longoria, probably, should be in there, as should Donaldson. On the pitching side, perhaps the biggest snub is Derek Holland. But I don’t want to sit here and complain about possible snubs; rather, I want to talk a little bit about the best seasons put up by players who weren’t All-Stars. It wouldn’t make sense to complain, since I don’t actually care very much. But history is interesting, and below, we’ll examine some great seasons from between 1963-2012 that didn’t include an All-Star nod. Granted, the All-Star Game is in the middle, but these seasons at least look funny in retrospect. How do Longoria and Donaldson measure up?
The Nationals Add Scott Hairston, Nifty Role Player
When a player hitting .172 with a .232 on base percentage is traded for an A-ball pitching prospect, it usually doesn’t generate big headlines. So, you can be forgiven if you haven’t paid a ton of attention to the most recent trade between the Nationals and Cubs, which sent outfielder Scott Hairston to Washington and Ivan Pineyro to the Cubs, plus a pair of PTBNLs, with one going in each direction. According to Jed Hoyer, the two players to be named later “will not affect the balance of the deal”, so it’s basically Hairston for Pineyro, with the Cubs picking up a small part of Hairston’s small contract for 2014.
However, just because this is a minor deal doesn’t mean it’s an unimportant deal. Last summer, Marco Scutaro was traded in a similar kind of swap, and turned out to be the best player acquired at the deadline. Role players have value, and Scott Hairston could be a pretty nice role player for the Nationals.