Max Scherzer is an incredible 19-1, and he’s also considered the frontrunner in this year’s race for the American League Cy Young Award. There is no debating the reality of his record — his record is his record, as numbers are numbers. There is, however, debating whether or not he should be in the lead in the award race — the AL has other good starters, too, so Scherzer isn’t in a league of his own. Predictably, then, there is debate regarding the significance of Scherzer’s win/loss record, because not many people have done this before, and that has to count for something, right?

There are few debates in which I can imagine being less interested. That’s not true, there are lots, but I wrote that sentence to make a point. No, you can’t realistically get to 19-1 if you haven’t pitched really well. Scherzer has pitched really well. There is a strong relationship between performance and record, as much as we’d all like to kill the win. Scherzer, though, has also received the most run support in baseball, because his team’s offense has a Miguel Cabrera in it, and there’s a relationship between run support and record, too. If we’re going to adjust for run support, we’re already trying to strip away some context; might as well go all the way and just look at the numbers that really matter. Not included among those numbers are wins and losses.

I like looking at the numbers 19 and 1 as much as the next guy. To be honest, for some reason 19-1 looks better to me than 19-0. But I’m more interested in what’s going on underneath, what’s going on with Scherzer specifically. Scherzer and Rick Porcello have always had a fair number of things in common. This year, they’ve added to the list, and they’ve both been better for it.

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Sometimes, baseball is just cruel.

Source: #Mets’ Harvey has partially torn UCL. Will be shut down. Determination on whether he needs Tommy John surgery will be made later.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) August 26, 2013

A couple of years ago, Stephen Strasburg was the best young pitcher we’d seen in a very long time, and then his elbow gave out. Matt Harvey was the best young pitcher we’d seen since Strasburg, and now it looks like his elbow might end up requiring surgery too. I have no personal affinity towards the Mets, but as a fan of baseball, this sucks. The game does not need any more “what if” stories. We already have one Mark Prior; we don’t need to start a fraternity.

Smart people of the future: Figure out how to keep great young pitchers healthy, please.

There probably were some analysts who liked Jayson Werth’s seven-year, $126 million contract for the Nationals when it was signed prior to the 2011 season, but no names spring to mind. It was not that Werth had been a bad player. There was actually an argument to be made that the contract was market value for a player of Werth’s projected value, but it was an open question as to whether a team in Washington’s situation should have been paying market value at that point, as Dave Cameron noted at the time.

The last point was based on the question of whether or not the Nationals would be good enough during the first part of the contract to justify making such an aggressive move. After a near-.500 2011 season, the Nationals held up their end of the deal in 2012, going 98-64 and winning the Natinal League East. They lost to the Cardinals in NL Division Series, but given the excellent young talent they seemed primed to make a few more runs with Werth still is his decent years.

But Werth was not really holding up his end. In 2011, he did not hit that well, and in 2012, he missed about half the season due to injury. This season, the Nationals are having an extremely disappointing season given the expectations raised by 2012. Many things have gone wrong for Washington this year, but Werth is not one of them.

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Over the weekend, various reports have emerged suggesting that the Angels are likely to fire either GM Jerry DiPoto or longtime manager Mike Scioscia in the wake of their disastrous 2013 season. While Scioscia denies that there is an abnormal rift between the field staff and the front office, there’s enough smoke here to believe that there is a fire somewhere, and it would actually be unusual if someone wasn’t held responsible for a $140 million failure.

Firing decision makers as a response to poor performance is standard operating procedure in Major League Baseball, and the GM and manager are the two guys whose job descriptions include taking responsibility for the results on the field. Both DiPoto and Scioscia know how this game works, and neither one would have much of a right to be surprised if they were let go following the season. However, if the Angels actually want to fix what is broken, they should be more interested in figuring out what went wrong and why rather than just meting out punishment to satisfy the desire to hold someone accountable.

So, what happened to the 2013 Angels? How can a team with the best young player the game has seen in 100 years still manage to be so awful?

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Dodgers lefty prospect Julio Urias has made 17 starts this season. Julio Urias, as you may have heard, is 17 years old.

Fifteen of his starts came before his birthday less than two weeks ago. The Mexico native spent the majority of the season playing professional baseball — and full-season ball, at that — at the age of 16. Naturally, people are intrigued. Naturally, he’s received a fair bit of hype — especially with a 2.68 ERA, as well as just 16 walks to go with 62 strikeouts in 50.1 innings.

But is that hype justified?

Sort of.

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This investigation begins with a simple frustration. I was recently watching the Rays and, after a few solo homers wandered over the fence, I asked myself, “How can a team with such a solid on-base percentage hit so few multi-run homers?”

It makes sense that, if’n a team can matriculate men down to first and second and even third base, they can get more bang for their homer bucks. My frustration reminded me of Jeff Sullivan’s frustrations in 2012, when he wrote the epic monkey’s paw game recap, wherein he bemoaned the Mariners’ solo homeritis.

But, to me, it made sense the Mariners had solo homeritis. The 2012 Mariners had a .296 OBP — worst in the majors by a Deadball Era or two.

So I began a quest, a quest that has lasted several months. I have scaled SQL cliffs, journeyed deep into Pivot Table mines, and waded through the blogger depression swamps. With the support of some eclectic friends, such as Jeff Zimmerman, Matt Hunter, and Steve Staudenmayer, I have concluded that OBP and runs per home run do indeed have a relationship, but that relationship is severely diluted by randomness and unpredictability.
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Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Best Performances of the Northwoods League
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Best Performances of the Northwoods League
Introduction
Last week in the Notes, the author published a pair of final leaderboards for, and produced some superfiecial notes regarding, the Cape Cod League — i.e. the nation’s most prestigious collegiate wood-bat summer league. The present edition of the Notes represents a very similar exercise — except, in this case, for what is generally regarded as the second-most prestigious/competitive wood-bat summer league, the Northwoods League.

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In a sense, Sunday’s Phillies game shouldn’t have been too important. It’s long been apparent the Phillies aren’t going anywhere, or at least, they’re not going where they’d like. The Nationals, too, probably aren’t going anywhere, and while their playoff hopes aren’t quite so dashed, they’re hardly in the picture. And on the mound, the Phillies had a 36-year-old free agent to be, a guy coming off shoulder surgery, a guy who posted an 8.65 ERA before going on the disabled list after seven starts. The Phillies, thus, weren’t even throwing a prospect.

But they were throwing an unknown, by the name of Roy Halladay. Halladay was making his first start since going under the knife, and given who he is and who he’s been, the game captured the interest not just of Phillies fans, but of baseball fans, fans who grew accustomed to thinking of Halladay as unbreakable and automatic. Healthy Halladay was the very picture of the shutdown workhorse. Unhealthy Halladay was a grim reminder that rooting for pitchers sucks. Many were eager to find out what Halladay might have left in the tank, and Sunday he and the Phillies knocked off Patrick Corbin. Following is something of a Halladay start in review.

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Two years ago, Josh Bell did the unexpected. He signed with the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Bucs boldly drafted Bell in the second round, despite his proclamation — through a letter to all 30 teams — that he would be attending the University of Texas. The product of Dallas’ Jesuit College Preparatory School was committed to getting an education.

Much to the Pirates delight, he changed his mind. The powerfully built, switch-hitting outfielder was more than a promising student-athlete. He had as much raw talent as any player in the draft. Were it not for signability issues, he likely would  have gone in the top half of the first round.

Last season, Bell learned how to deal with adversity. Just 15 games into his professional career, he tore the meniscus in his left knee and missed the rest of the season.

Bell, who turned 21 earlier this month, is currently getting his schooling in the South Atlantic League. In 498 plate appearances with the West Virginia Power, he is hitting .280/.353/.455, with 37 doubles and 12 home runs. Read the rest of this entry »