Archive for December, 2013

A’s Add Scott Kazmir, Keep Doing A’s Things

This is an overly simplistic generalization, but when signing free agents to contracts smaller than $100 million, you can choose performance or health, but probably not both. Players who play everyday at a high level command massive paychecks, and are pursued by nearly every team with money to spend. When you’re shopping in the lower rent districts, you can sign healthy players with mediocre performances, or broken players with good performances, but there aren’t many good healthy free agents signing short term contracts these days.

The A’s, over the last few years, have very clearly prioritized performance over durability. When they wanted a center fielder back in 2010, they signed Coco Crisp despite the fact that he was coming off shoulder surgery. When they traded away Andrew Bailey in 2011, they targeted Josh Reddick from the Red Sox, who had been an interesting player when he was able to stay on the field. When they needed a shortstop last winter, they turned to the Astros and acquired Jed Lowrie, who had a history of both hitting well and breaking down regularly.

They’ve done it with pitchers too, acquiring guys like Brandon McCarthy, Brett Anderson, and Jarrod Parker at various points over the last few years. Because of their budget constraints, the A’s have to shop from the bargain bin, and they have consistently chosen to buy talented broken players over more reliable mediocrities. When faced with a choice between talent and health, the A’s have chosen talent and hoped that the health would get better.

Today, they’ve done that again, signing Scott Kazmir to a two year contract for a little more than $22 million. And based on both the A’s history and Kazmir’s 2013 season, this looks like a strong bet to be one of the best contracts given to a free agent starter this winter.

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Ambiguous Victory: Thoughts on the Dayton Moore Extension

In November of 1941, the British forces in North Africa launched Operation Crusader with the intention of engaging the Axis forces led by Erwin Rommel. The British were hoping for a tank battle in which the superior numbers of British tanks would have the advantage and crush the German armor while also relieving the besieged fortress at Tobruk.

It did not turn out that way. The short version begins with British constantly giving up the initiative, dispersing their tanks and then suffering huge losses as the concentrated German forces smashed through them one by one. Despite numerous initial setbacks, Operation Crusader ended with what is generally considered a victory for the British. Rommel overreached, and during his “dash to the wire” (the border between Libya and Egypt), the British, rather than retreating as Rommel had thought, held fast and Rommel was ultimately forced to withdraw west of Tobruk. It was not an overwhelming victory for the British by any means, and in many ways the fighting highlighted the British Army’s glaring tactical shortcomings. Yet it was a victory, generally considered to be the first by the British against German-led forces during the Second World War.

The Royals might be said to have had their own version of Operation Crusader in 2013. They made some questionable decisions along the way, they did end up winning 86 games, their first winning season since 2003 (with the previous one coming in 1993 — every 10 years!). So on Black Friday, the Royals rather unsurprisingly announced an extension for general manager Dayton Moore, whose contract was scheduled to end after the 2014 season. The new contract extends him through 2016.

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Twins Remake Rotation With Nolasco And Hughes

While most teams took the opportunity to enjoy a quiet Thanksgiving holiday, the Minnesota Twins instead figured the time was right to hand out the two biggest free agent contracts in team history. On Wednesday, they signed Ricky Nolasco for four years and $49 million; on Saturday night, it was Phil Hughes for three years and $24 million. In the span of four days, Terry Ryan added two pitchers who lost 25 games last year to his 96-loss team, and guaranteed them $73 million in the process.

If you think that’s crazy, know that you’re far from alone. Between the dual questions of “is either pitcher really worth that money?” and “why is a 96-loss team spending this much to maybe get to only 90 losses next year?” it’s easy to question the Minnesota plan here. That being said: these are moves that are still pretty defensible. Read the rest of this entry »


Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 12/2/13

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: All right! Whew! This delay was caused by Willie Bloomquist

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: Although you could argue I’m still a day early since I’m usually going on Tuesday mornings. This is a one-time switch to correspond with the ZiPS roll-outs

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: So in the future, back to ordinary chat scheduling. For now, let’s do this

9:07
Comment From GSon
huray!!. only five minutes late…

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: Six

9:07
Comment From Not a Mariners Fan
Thoughts on Willie Bloomquist?

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The Twins and More Hints of a Changing Market

While many of you probably spent the long holiday weekend with the family you already had, the Twins spent theirs building a new one, signing Ricky Nolasco for four years before signing Phil Hughes for three. While this post is being published much later than the reports, many haven’t been looking at their computers, and these transactions are too interesting to outright ignore. Without stepping on Mike Petriello’s toes, these moves are notable for a variety of reasons.

(1) The Twins aren’t good. Obviously, the Twins aren’t good, and while the Twins might become good in the near or less-near future, they’re not good now, and their division already has talented teams, and free-agent acquisitions are usually short-term improvements. You don’t usually expect lousy ballclubs to make multi-year commitments on the market. Not like this.

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The Rockies Don’t Need Justin Morneau

It’s been rumored for awhile now, but over the Thanksgiving break, the intensity of rumors linking the Colorado Rockies to Justin Morneau increased. But Morneau is not going to improve the Rockies roster any, and with the team facing a budget threshold that will not allow them to spend with the big boys, signing Morneau is simply a mistake that the club can’t afford to make.

For sake of comparison, here’s a blind projection for 2014:
Player A: .279/.327/.476, .346 wOBA, 106 wRC+, 0.8 WAR in 299 PA
Player B: .258/.330/.428, .330 wOBA, 108 wRC+, 0.9 WAR in 518 PA

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Q&A: Richie Mirowski, Washington Nationals Pitching Prospect

Richie Mirowski is intriguing. The Washington Nationals pitching prospect features a unique array of offerings, as well as a “Who is this guy?” profile. A 24-year-old right-hander, he was selected in the 45th-round of the 2011 draft out of Oklahoma Baptist University.

This year, Mirowski had one of best seasons of any bullpen arm in baseball. Pitching at high-A Potomac and Double-A Harrisburg, he went 10-3, 1.83 with 7 saves. In 45 appearances, covering 68-and-two-thirds innings, he had a .903 WHIP and 11.5 punch-outs-per-nine. The numbers were no mirage. In 2012, Mirowski logged a 1.85 ERA between Auburn and Hagerstown.

Mirowski wrapped up his 2013 campaign by pitching in the Arizona Fall League for the Mesa Solar Sox. He discussed his repertoire — which includes a split-change and a spike curveball — during the last week of the AFL season. Read the rest of this entry »


Effectively Wild Episode 339: Alex Rodriguez, Bud Selig, and Hard-Boiled Baseball

Ben and Sam discuss the latest details of the exquisitely seamy A-Rod story.