Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 12/2/13

December 2, 2013

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: All right! Whew! This delay was caused by Willie Bloomquist

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Although you could argue I’m still a day early since I’m usually going on Tuesday mornings. This is a one-time switch to correspond with the ZiPS roll-outs

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: So in the future, back to ordinary chat scheduling. For now, let’s do this

9:07	Comment From GSon huray!!. only five minutes late…

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Six

9:07	Comment From Not a Mariners Fan Thoughts on Willie Bloomquist?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: The Mariners are in need of some infield depth behind Seager/Miller/Franklin so in that sense a guy like Bloomquist fits. Probably, though, he’ll get a bit too much money, and the internet isn’t going to receive this well even though in the big picture it doesn’t matter for beans

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: This is going to help drive the bandwagon believing that the Mariners’ front office is incompetent

9:10	Comment From Not a White Sox Fan Thoughts on the White Sox catcher situation?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Bad. I could use more words and go into more detail, but that’s always going to be the conclusion.

9:11	Comment From Dave Has Taillon’s ceiling been lowered at all since he’s been drafted? He hasn’t truly struggled yet on any level.

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: I’d say people are still waiting for him to dominate, but he remains very much an elite-level pitching prospect

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Incidentally, a note: I’m still kind of getting myself caught up after vacation so expect this chat to reveal things I have missed! There’s a new baseball landscape with which I’m still getting accustomed

9:13	Comment From Catoblepas What do the Red Sox do for catcher now? Does Arencibia + Ross = one full catcher, or is Pierzynski still their best remaining option?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: They shouldn’t want Arencibia. It’s good that they already have Ross, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them explore the trade market. John Jaso might be had with Stephen Vogt behind him and pretty similar

9:14	Comment From KB If you were a Brewers fan, at this moment, what would you be excited about entering 2014?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: fewer innings from Johnny Hellweg

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: and another full season of Carlos Gomez

9:16	Comment From Concerned White Sox Fan What would you do at catcher if you were the White Sox?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Honestly, the solution probably isn’t out there and readily available. The White Sox need to develop somebody. For the time being just keep Flowers/Phegley together

9:18	Comment From Matt I noticed that you never actually passed judgement on the Twins two signings. Nolasco good or bad? Hughes good or bad?

9:20

Jeff Sullivan: Petriello has a detailed piece on the signings and I didn’t want to step on his toes. That piece just hadn’t published yet. Nolasco deal is fair. Hughes deal seems fair, even if the Twins might’ve been able to get him for, say, $20m/2 instead. Neither is a disaster or a bargain, and though the Twins are a strange destination even bad teams need to try to be better

9:21	Comment From Jake I’m jealous that you were in Guatemala because I miss Guatemala 🙁 How were the volcanoes?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Saw a nice plume from Fuego, and Pacaya threw up some rocks when I was watching from the slopes. Atitlan was spectacular. Go to Guatemala everybody

9:21	Comment From David The Nationals have been extremely quiet so far, this offseason. It’s generally assumed they need a starting pitcher along with some bullpen and bench help, but I haven’t heard any names AT ALL. Any names you think fit there?

9:24

Jeff Sullivan: With the Nationals anyone and everyone can seem like a fit, no matter the price. I think the holdup right now is that the Nationals most need a starting pitcher and that market is still developing what with the Tanaka delay. I think it’s going to take Tanaka landing for the main starters to find their markets and no one’s going to want to budge first

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: I expect the Nationals to be players for prominent names, per usual. Not saying that’s the right thing, but it’s my expected thing

9:26	Comment From GSon Jeff Samardzija trade talk doesn’t seem to be at all realistic. Four prospects from the Jays including Aaron Sanches and Marcus Stroman..etc. Who gets the Shark and for what, in your always humble opinion…?

9:28

Jeff Sullivan: Well, if the price were more reasonable, a deal would’ve been done by now. This is the course of negotiations, and Samardzija’s market will be partially driven by the Tanaka outcome. I suspect he’ll be moved instead of re-signed, and I think he’ll end up on more of a mid-market team at the cost of a good prospect and two more reasonable prospects

9:29

Comment From Maxamuz
Mr. Sullivan, the consensus he in the Boston area is that the Red Sox need to make various moves. I have one friend who is livid that they haven’t made big splashes and they are doomed. He seems to think they need to gut the team and turn over the roster. I say, NO. They won a WS, have a solid core and no huge contract worries. What say you?

9:30

Jeff Sullivan: They’re in all right shape, of course, but they don’t really have a starting catcher, and they’re out an outstanding center fielder, and they’re thin at first and third. There’s plenty of work to be done, even beyond possibly re-signing Stephen Drew. But tell your friend to calm down because we haven’t even reached the winter meetings yet

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Also, remind your friend that they just won the freaking world series

9:31	Comment From Concerned White Sox Fan What would the White Sox need to offer to get the Padre’s talking on a deal for Chase Headley?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: More than they should

9:32

Comment From Tim
Hey Jeff, the Orioles now have, I believe , four catchers on their 40-man. Do you think that this is a sign that Wieters could be traded this offseason or that the Orioles are just trying to prepare for the inevitable 2015 offseason where Wieters will walk. Or am I overthinking this completely?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: They have four catchers, one of them good. They’re open to trading Wieters, but they’re not in position to lose him and still be stable behind the plate

9:33	Comment From Nats Fan So jeff a lot of noise and articles are being made for the nats to sign cano, i don’t see rizzo doing this even if it is a 4 Win upgrade do you?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: I think people are trying to find potential Cano alternatives if New York doesn’t pay up and there just aren’t very many of them. The Nationals stand out because they have money and are aggressive, and I’m not saying it couldn’t work, but I think it’s incredibly unlikely

9:34	Comment From Boston Phan Given Nolasco’s deal, what should Jimenez and Santana expect? Or are the three not linked in the minds of teams?

9:36

Jeff Sullivan: Santana and Garza are held in higher esteem than Nolasco is. Jimenez might be perceived as too unreliable to give 4+ years, but he should beat Nolasco in AAV. Just off the top of my head, I could see Santana around $60m/4, Garza around $75m/5, and Jimenez around $40m/3. But I can’t predict a starting-pitcher market that hasn’t yet truly developed

9:36	Comment From Bryan Nori Aoki’s name has been raised in some trade rumors (most notably to the Mets for Ike Davis). Aoki has a great contract, but it is only for one more season. What can the Brewers get for Aoki? Will the return be good enough to warrant dealing him?

9:40

Jeff Sullivan: Aoki has a good contract, of course, but the fact of the matter is that he’s more or less league-average and he’s not in position to get everyday playing time in Milwaukee before becoming a free agent. He’s valuable depth, but the Brewers shouldn’t cling too hard to a near-32-year-old. With that said, because of his contract, he wouldn’t bring back that much in a deal. Talking perhaps a B-level prospect. Nifty player, wrong situation

9:41	Comment From chawson Is Ryan Braun worth trading for?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Sure, but it’s not happening

9:41	Comment From GSon Best bargain bin buyers = The Twins for Nolasco and Hughes.. Agree?. Comment, please…

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: They gave Nolasco and Hughes seven guaranteed years. Hughes had a chance of being a bargain-bin pickup, but the Twins insisted on paying retail price.

9:42	Comment From Zach Assuming both contracts are fair value, which outfielder makes more baseball sense for the Tigers: Choo or Ellsbury? I love the idea of Choo on base constantly in front of Cabrera, but Ellsbury’s speed and elite D behind a staff of flyballers would pay big dividends as well.

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Ellsbury is better, so in that sense Ellsbury is the answer. Then it just becomes a question of how you get somebody to play left field.

9:44	Comment From Johnny Is me being extremely excited over the signing of Dioner Navarro a function of Dioner being good, or JPA being really bad?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: yes

9:44	Comment From Guest What last place team is closest to competing?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: I think Blue Jays, then Rockies, then Cubs, although maybe you swap the last two

9:45	Comment From Concerned White Sox Fan Are the Mariners really looking for pitching like the rumors say? That doesn’t seem to make sense given what their offense looked like last season.

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: For one thing, you focus on improvements, not on specific kinds of improvements. For another thing, they’re looking for pitching and hitting. They have money to spend and plenty of holes.

9:45	Comment From David Thoughts on the Navarro signing? Do you think teams will start asking switch-hitters to favour their dominant side more often after Victorino’s experiment?

9:49

Jeff Sullivan: I’m interested in the power uptick, even if Navarro lacks a track record and standout defensive ability. The Jays aren’t paying him to be very good, as the AAV is less than the market value of a single win over replacement. The contract is just fine with some upside, and he should be relief from the previous crap

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think Victorino’s experiment is going to change very much league-wide. It’s always going to be a case-by-case basis and switch-hitting is too valuable to give up unless you have a clear and dramatic split

9:51	Comment From NoBattingGloves Last Year Zach Greinke had a wRC+ of 132 at the plate compared to Brendan Ryan’s 44 if both on your team who would you DH for

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Greinke because of the rules

9:52	Comment From KB Who plays 1B for the Brewers in 2014?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: I’d say Corey Hart isn’t likely, but he’s the most likely

9:53	Comment From Steve Will Alex Cobb be excellent again in ’14?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Don’t know why he wouldn’t be

9:53	Comment From Dave Why do people need domination from prospects in the minors to predict major league success? Matt Harvey and Gerrit Cole didn’t dominate. Jeff Clement did.

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Clement didn’t really dominate outside of a month and a half

9:55

Jeff Sullivan: Obviously it isn’t all about the numbers and this is where scouting comes in, but dominance is an extremely positive indicator, and if a guy doesn’t dominate in the minors, you wonder why that might be, if he’s said to be a big-time prospect. There can be fine reasons, and there can be worrying reasons

9:55	Comment From Thomas Did you see lava on your vacation?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: yes!

9:55	Comment From neastws What assumptions do ZIPS and Steamer make about platoon splits? Do they assume the player will face the same distribution of LHP and RHP as they have over their careers?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: This would be a good question to ask tomorrow!

9:55	Comment From Boosh Magoosh Red Sox trading for Hanigan makes too much sense, right? Left-handed to platoon with Ross, good defender, good OBP, he’s a buy-low…

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Obvious, excellent candidate

9:56	Comment From Boosh Magoosh Wait, Hanigan’s not left-handed… I’m a fool. But it still makes a lot of sense.

9:57	Comment From Guest AJ Burnett a good fit for the Orioles (his offseason home is in MD apparently) or does he just retire?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Burnett would be a good fit, but I think it’s still either Pirates or nothing

9:58	Comment From Catoblepas Has any research been done into the pitcher’s side of framing? Like, are there any staffs who throw to a catcher who averages +1.5 strikes per game, but it falls to +1 for a certain pitcher and +2 for another?

9:59

Jeff Sullivan: The big other side of it is pitcher command — a pitcher who locates will be easier to frame than a pitcher who’s more unpredictable. Unfortunately we dont’ have great measures of pitcher command, in the public arena, although I keep trying to think of ways we can find approximations. One idea, still unpursued: find framing numbers for pitchers, relative to what you’d expect from the catchers he threw to overall

9:59	Comment From Mike C. Pirates with best pitch framing catcher tandem ever! my saber head about to explode at it’s implications

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: If only Chris Stewart could do anything else

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: But what a turnaround over two or three years for that team