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Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. A Leaderboard of 2013’s First-Rounders, Already
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

A Leaderboard of 2013’s First-Rounders, Already
The Purpose of This Post
The purpose of this post, mostly, is to alert the readership to how — with the recent commencement of certain Low-A and Rookie-level leagues — how a small collection of 2013 first-round picks have begun their professional baseball careers.

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Right now, Gregor Blanco is on his way to his second above-average year as a key (if underrated) component in a championship outfield — “a dream come true” as he puts it. Just two years ago, though, he didn’t get a single major league plate appearance and found himself in Venezuela without a job. There was a moment, though, that sparked the change. A single decision, about a single body part, and Blanco found himself on the road to where he is now.

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A number of factors dictate pitch selection. Scouting reports and reads play a role — as do game situations, counts and repertoires. Some pitchers are more predictable than others — often to their detriment — but once the starter has delivered his first pitch in a game, it becomes a chess match.

The game’s first pitch isn’t unpredictable. According to Jeff Zimmerman’s research, 95.6% of all first pitches thrown in 2012 and 2013 have been fastballs. Of those pitches, 51.1% have been taken for strike, 35.9% have been taken for a ball and 13.1% have been swung at.

Overall, hitters have seen a fastball 63.5% of the time. Of all pitches thrown, 36% have been taken for a ball, 17.9% have been taken for a strike and 46.1% have been swung at.

A.J. Pierzynski probably doesn’t know all of those numbers, but having spent over 1,600 big-league games behind the plate, he has a pretty good idea of how the pitch-selection chess match works. The Texas Rangers catcher weighed in on the subject earlier this month at Fenway Park. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben and Sam talk about a pair of All-Star candidates, then discuss Royals GM Dayton Moore’s comments about Kauffman Stadium suppressing walks.

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Episode 352
John Sickels is a former research assistant to the actual Bill James, the author of a notable annual prospect book, and the proprietor of SB Nation site Minor League Ball. He’s also the guest on this edition of FanGraphs Audio.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 44 min play time.)

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The most exciting play in baseball, within context, is presumably the walk-off grand slam with two outs and a three-run deficit. Within context, I imagine it’s almost a perfect correlation between play excitement and Win Probability Added. This is why WPA works as both a baseball statistic and emotion statistic. Any immediate reversal of deficit to victory is going to be outstanding. From the other side, perhaps a game-ending and game-preserving strikeout or double play. Context leads to leverage, which leads to excitement, which leads to viewing satisfaction.

The most exciting play in baseball, removed from context, is up for debate. Some people say triples; some more adventurous, aggressive people say inside-the-park home runs. Some people say steals of home. Some people say other things. What a lot of these have in common is maximum hustle, or maximum effort. People respond well to players putting everything they have into a play, because then you’re watching world-class athletes at their most athletic. That’s one of the points of all this.

As it happens, there was particular hustle on display on Wednesday. And hustle from two of baseball’s premier emerging stars, in Mike Trout and Yasiel Puig. On the road in Yankee Stadium, Puig gathered for himself a hustle double. At home in Anaheim, Trout managed a hustle double of his own. To have two hustle doubles on the same day by different half-player/half-phenomenon entities — the two can’t not be compared. So, below, they’ll be compared, somewhat or mostly arbitrarily.

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This is my second article in an occasional series in which I will look at the way that a single franchise has filled a single position over the course of time: stars and stopgaps, free agents and trades, hot prospects and positional conversions. Last time, I examined Atlanta Braves centerfielders. This week, I will look at another up-the-middle position for another National League team, as I take a look at the way that the New York Mets have filled their keystone, second base.

The difference between the two teams is stark. The Braves filled center field with brilliant draftees like Dale Murphy and Andruw Jones and a succession of mostly successful trades, but the Mets’ second base has been a 30-year revolving door. Here’s how it looks:
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As we sneak up on July, we’re at a point where the buyers are starting to contact the sellers. As White Sox GM Rick Hahn said to MLB.com:

“Given the way we’ve played thus far, it’s not a real surprise we’ve had some phone calls — more of the vulture-type phone calls, the type that traditionally we’re more accustomed to making,” Hahn said. “But that’s part of the hole that we’ve dug for ourselves, that teams are going to look at us as potential sellers when the deadline comes, and they’re starting to lay a little bit of that ground work now.”

While the addition of a second wild card incentivizes bubble teams to hang onto their players a bit longer to see if they can make a second half run, there are eight organizations that shouldn’t have any false aspirations about how the rest of their 2013 season is going to go: The Astros, Marlins, Mets, Cubs, White Sox, Mariners, Twins, and Brewers. Minnesota has the best record of the group at 32-36, but they know they’re in full scale rebuild mode, and they shouldn’t diverge from the path-to-the-future that they began by trading away veterans for prospects over the winter. The other seven teams all have winning percentages below .440, and even if they had some pre-season optimism about their own club, they need to admit that it’s not happening this year.

Our rest of season forecasts have each team finishing with 75 wins or less, and given the 90+ wins it will likely take to secure a wild card spot, it’s time to face the music and start prioritizing 2014 wins. While the other 22 teams retain some chance of playoff glory, these are the eight franchises that should be putting their players on the market as we head into July. However, that list of sellers presents a problem for the teams looking to buy, especially teams who are hunting for a rotation upgrade: these eight clubs don’t really have good pitching to trade.

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Ben and Sam discuss Matt Harvey’s response to hazing, Albert Pujols’ recent resurgence, and players we’re underrating because of the run environment.

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