They’re Not Getting Lucky
The St. Louis Cardinals, to date, have been the best team in baseball, at least in terms of getting wins and avoiding losses. It’s not surprising, in that the Cardinals have proven themselves to be something of a powerhouse, but it is surprising given some of their injuries. The Cardinals have the best record in the National League by two games. They have the best run differential in the NL by 32 runs. A big part of the explanation is pure talent. The Cardinals have talented players. There’s also the matter of timing. At the plate, with the bases empty, the Cardinals own an 86 wRC+, good for 24th and sandwiched between the Mariners and the Pirates. With man or men in scoring position, they own a 140 wRC+, good for first by a mile. The Cardinals have scored 35% of their baserunners, and that’s tops in all of baseball.
This didn’t escape Buster Olney’s attention. Olney has written and tweeted about the Cardinals’ ability to drive runners home, noting that they have the highest team OBP with runners in scoring position since at least 1974. A lot of this came up Sunday night, and a lot of the response, as you can imagine, is that the Cardinals have been lucky. Olney wasn’t buying this argument, and you shouldn’t buy it, either. “Luck” — what we’re dealing with here isn’t luck.