Archive for 2013

They’re Not Getting Lucky

The St. Louis Cardinals, to date, have been the best team in baseball, at least in terms of getting wins and avoiding losses. It’s not surprising, in that the Cardinals have proven themselves to be something of a powerhouse, but it is surprising given some of their injuries. The Cardinals have the best record in the National League by two games. They have the best run differential in the NL by 32 runs. A big part of the explanation is pure talent. The Cardinals have talented players. There’s also the matter of timing. At the plate, with the bases empty, the Cardinals own an 86 wRC+, good for 24th and sandwiched between the Mariners and the Pirates. With man or men in scoring position, they own a 140 wRC+, good for first by a mile. The Cardinals have scored 35% of their baserunners, and that’s tops in all of baseball.

This didn’t escape Buster Olney’s attention. Olney has written and tweeted about the Cardinals’ ability to drive runners home, noting that they have the highest team OBP with runners in scoring position since at least 1974. A lot of this came up Sunday night, and a lot of the response, as you can imagine, is that the Cardinals have been lucky. Olney wasn’t buying this argument, and you shouldn’t buy it, either. “Luck” — what we’re dealing with here isn’t luck.

Read the rest of this entry »


Ike Davis and the Malfunctioning Parachute

Ike Davis homered in the season’s second game. He homered twice a couple weeks later, then he homered again a week after that. That makes it sound like Davis hit a flurry of home runs, which he didn’t. He hit four over a handful of weeks. But then, after going deep on April 25, he didn’t go deep again until the beginning of June. On June 2, Davis took Kevin Slowey deep to center in Miami, and Ron Darling chimed in innocently enough:

Well let’s see if that can get Ike going.

Davis singled in his next at-bat. Then he went 1-for-14. Finally, after weeks of speculation and strong denial and halfhearted denial, the Mets gave Davis a demotion to Triple-A, his OPS standing at an even .500. It’s been Davis’ contention that he can’t learn to hit major-league pitchers in the minor leagues. The Mets, though, would like to see him at least hit minor-league pitchers. They’d like to see him at least hit someone.

Read the rest of this entry »


The Padres Surprising Middle Infield

It’s hard to find a good, stable middle infield combination, especially offensively, since so many players at those positions are defensive specialists who are happy to see a blooper fall in occasionally. When a team like the Padres puts together a good middle infield combo seemingly overnight, it’s definitely worthy of mention. In shortstop Everth Cabrera and second baseman Jedd Gyorko, San Diego may have one of the game’s most surprisingly effective middle infield duos.

If we were to focus only on 2013 performance as a marker of overall ability, then we’d be forced to note that only 11 teams have qualified players at each position. We don’t want to knock out the other 19 teams for not having qualifiers, but there are some we can eliminate right off the bat. Four teams — the Blue Jays, Dodgers, Mariners and Marlins — don’t have a qualified player at either position. Perhaps — in another year — the combo of Jose Reyes and Maicer Izturis will merit mention, but not now. The same goes for Robinson Cano and Derek Jeter with the Yankees, as they won’t get enough playing time out of Jeter to merit consideration this season.

Read the rest of this entry »


The Growing Legend of Yasiel Puig

Yasiel Puig has been in the Major Leagues for a week. In the seven days since he was called up from Double-A, he’s hit as many home runs as Andre Ethier has all season. He’s already doubled Matt Kemp’s 2013 home run total. He ended his first game in the majors by starting a double play, throwing a laser from right field to nail a runner retreating to first on a long fly ball. Puig-mania is in full effect, and needless to say, he’s not going back to the minor leagues no matter how many Dodgers outfielders eventually return from the DL.

It’s hard not to get caught up in the excitement. If you’ve missed his absurd debut, MLB.com has an embeddable five minute video of his early accomplishments, so you can relive the glory of Yasiel Puig’s incredible first week below. Read the rest of this entry »


Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 6/10/13

11:57
Dan Szymborski: Right Red Ankiel? Kirk “The Flailing Dutchman” Nieuwenhuis? Lucas Duda and Aeneas? Jordany the Spin Doctor? The man of stupid personal nicknames is here.

11:58
Comment From Guest
Why is nobody talking about Tulo?

11:58
Dan Szymborski: Tulo hasn’t gotten much attention, which is amazing. I know I spent half of the ESPN franchise draft chat last week bitching about Tulo not being drafted.

11:58
Comment From Max
Has the official Kyle Blanks’ breakout officially arrived?

11:59
Dan Szymborski: Kyle Blanks seems to alternate his breakouts with being injured and craptastic for a year and a half.

11:59
Comment From CJ
Any Mets worth of adding in deep leagues based on the shakeup yesterday?

Read the rest of this entry »


Daily Notes: A Brief Review of Jose Alvarez’s Sunday Start

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. A Brief Review of Jose Alvarez’s Sunday Start
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

A Brief Review of Jose Alvarez’s Sunday Start
Introduction
Left-hander Jose Alvarez, signed by Detroit this past November to a minor-league contract, made his major-league debut on Sunday afternoon after recording the second-highest strikeout rate (25.8%) and highest strikeout-walk differential (20.7%) among qualified starters in the Triple-A International League. What follows is a very brief review of his first career start.

Read the rest of this entry »


Velocity Trends Through May

We are a little more than two months into the season, and that means it’s time to check on early season velocity trends. As I’ve mentioned before, declines in velocity are a less reliable signal in April and May than in June and July, but nevertheless large declines can still be a solid predictor that a pitcher’s velocity has in fact truly declined and will remain lower at season’s end. Almost 40% of pitchers that experience a decline in April — and almost 50% in May — will finish the season down at least 1 mph. And while the signal gets much stronger in July, 40% is still a pretty sizable number.

So let’s take a quick look at the major decliners from April and May.

Read the rest of this entry »


Q&A: Lance Berkman, Humble OPS Legacy

Lance Berkman has numbers worthy of the Hall of Fame. The longtime Houston Astro — and current Texas Ranger — boasts a career slash line of .295/.408/.540. His post-season rate stats — accumulated in 52 games — are even better.

Berkman isn’t the boastful type. The 37-year-old switch-hitter acknowledges his accomplishments, but in a humble and understated manner that mirrors his legacy. Had he spent his career in a large media market — and not been overshadowed by Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio — his fame would be far greater. As for a plaque in Cooperstown, he will merit serious consideration once his playing days are over.

Berkman talked about his evolution as a hitter — and the relative value of OPS and RBIs — when the Rangers visited Fenway Park earlier this month. Read the rest of this entry »


Effectively Wild Episode 220: Sick Starters, The Value of Hitting Coaches, and The Most Disappointing Team of 2013

Ben and Sam discuss how impressive it is when players play sick, whether hitting coaches are more important than they’d previously thought, and the season’s most disappointing teams.


Daily Notes: Introducing a Sixth Detroit Starting Pitcher

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Featured Game: Cleveland at Detroit, 13:08 ET
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Featured Game: Cleveland at Detroit, 13:08 ET
Two Facts Regarding the Detroit Tigers
One fact regarding the Detroit Tigers is that they’ve used only five starting pitchers over the season’s first two-plus months. A second, entirely related, fact is that those same Detroit starters this season have recorded a league-best strikeout rate (26.5%), park-adjusted xFIP (71 xFIP-), and WAR (12.5).

Read the rest of this entry »