Ben and Sam team up for a simulpodcast with Carson Cistulli of FanGraphs and FanGraphs Audio to discuss whether the Yankees have been lucky, the best way to watch baseball, and the value of old scouting reports.
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The Astros have the worst team strikeout rate in the history of baseball. It’s not even particularly close, as these things go. The Astros have struck out in 26.8% of their plate appearances. The 2010 Diamondbacks struck out in 24.7% of their plate appearances. That’s a gap of more than two percentage points, in a rate that usually fluctuates between 15-25% or so. That’s terrible, and the only consolation is that the Astros were projected to be terrible so no one really cares.
Then right behind the 2010 Diamondbacks are this year’s Braves, at 24.5%. So, this year’s Braves have the third-worst team strikeout rate in the history of baseball. Between third and fourth there’s a gap of another 1.6 percentage points. The Braves, obviously, have the second-worst team strikeout rate this season. Just glancing at their current box score, they’ve struck out six times in four innings against Ian Kennedy on Wednesday. They’re going to strike out more before this game is through. Probably. I guess I can’t be certain.
Okay, so Tuesday night, instead of Bryce Harper, Jayson Werth, and Denard Span, the Nationals played Eury Perez, Tyler Moore, and Steve Lombardozzi. Theirs was not a particularly good lineup opposite Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers, so perhaps it wasn’t surprising that Kershaw was dominant for an out shy of nine innings. It should probably never be surprising when Kershaw is dominant, because he’s a dominant pitcher with dominant stuff, and by the way, he’s younger than A.J. Griffin. His final line on Tuesday included a walk and 11 strikeouts, with 96 strikes. The last pitcher to throw that many strikes in a game was Justin Verlander in 2012. In 2010, Brandon Morrow threw 97 strikes in a near-no-hitter. After that you’re going back to 2002. Tuesday night, Kershaw was on top of Sandy Koufax’s game.
As is the case with all players who have established themselves as terrific, it’s easy to take Clayton Kershaw for granted, to not appreciate him as much as he ought to be appreciated. One can’t really help it, because that’s just how the brain works, but one can pause to step back and consider of how much a given player is capable. Here I feel like pausing over Kershaw, and I also feel like committing a lot of attention to his curveball, because the pitch was aces for him Tuesday and because a Clayton Kershaw curveball is one of baseball’s signature experiences. Kershaw’s about a lot more than his curve, but allow me this freedom.
It’s always fun to stumble upon a great pitching duel. Recently, I was able to take in the game between two top pitching prospects at the Double-A level on May 2: Cleveland’s Danny Salazar and Pittsburgh’s Jameson Taillon. Both hurlers come from very different backgrounds. Salazar signed as an amateur free agent out of Venezuela in 2006 but saw his career derailed by injuries, including Tommy John surgery in 2010. I ranked him as the seventh-best prospect in Cleveland’s system enter the 2013 season. Taillon was a higher-profile amateur pitcher as the second overall selection in the 2010 draft. I ranked the right-hander as the second-best prospect in the Pirates’ system prior to the start of the season.
Salazar, now 23, was absolutely dominant on this night. He allowed just three base runners (one hit, two walks) and 12 of his 18 outs were recorded via the strikeout. The right-hander overpowered the opposing hitters with his fastball/curveball combination — even though he struggled with the command of his heater.
In last night’s Athletics-Rangers extra-inning affair, Oakland third baseman Josh Donaldson went 4-for-5 with two doubles. Oakland lost, but it was not Donaldson’s fault that no one was on base when he came up to the plate, or that the As only drove him in once of the four times he was on base himself. Donaldson’s 2013 performance so far has been excellent. Donaldson has been the team’s primary third baseman and has hit .315/.387/.523 (152 wRC+). Voros’ (McCracken’s) Law states that “any major league hitter can hit just about anything in 60 at bats.” Donaldson is beyond that threshold: 168 plate appearances so far this season. A sample of 168 is not exactly huge (to put it mildly), but there might be something to glean from it.
| 11:43 |
: It’s chat day again, so we’ll spend an hour or so talking about baseball related things. Not fantasy baseball related things, though, because I don’t know anything about fantasy baseball.
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| 11:43 |
: The queue is now open, so go ahead and get your questions in.
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| 11:59 |
Do you have any concerns about Strasburg other than the fact that he is a pitcher and could get hurt at any time for no reason? |
| 11:59 |
: No, I don’t think there’s any reason to be any more concerned than usual.
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| 11:59 |
Does Derek Dietrich get the starting nod the rest of the season? |
| 12:00 |
: Seems like a good use of playing time. When you’re not trying to win, giving chances to fringe prospects to see what they can do makes sense.
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Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.
1. Most Improved Pitchers So Far, Per Steamer
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule
Most Improved Pitchers So Far, Per Steamer
As the reader will know, we carry a tidy collection of projection systems here at the site — of which two now, Steamer and ZiPS, are updated daily with constantly changing rest-of-season and overall total projections. Together, the two systems provide important data for our new Standings tool. Another use is to see which players’ season performances to date have most altered their rest-of-season projections.
This week, in the Notes, we’re considering those hitters and pitchers whose projections have most improved. On Monday and Tuesday, we looked at the most improved hitters according to Steamer and ZiPS, respectively.
Below are the most improved pitchers according to Steamer — where “most improved” is defined as “greatest decrease in projected ERA.”
Note: pitchers who (a) are projected to make starts in fewer than 50% of their remaining appearances or (b) are absent currently from a major-league roster have been omitted from consideration.
5. Anibal Sanchez, RHP, Detroit
Steamer (Pre): 179.0 IP, 7.05 K/9, 2.59 BB/9, 1.00 HR/9, 4.05 ERA
Steamer (RoS): 138.0 IP, 7.96 K/9, 2.51 BB/9, 0.94 HR/9, 3.71 ERA
Notes: Part of a rotation which entered the season with the entirely formidable Justin Verlander and ever more brilliant Max Scherzer, it’s Sanchez who has posted the highest WAR so far (2.6) among major-league pitchers. It’s not entirely clear what Sanchez has done to improve upon his already above-average repertoire, but he’s somehow managed to increase the swinging-strike rate on all three of his main pitches (four-seam fastball, slider, changeup).
Dennis Martinez is among the least-appreciated pitchers in recent generations. Fans in Montreal certainly remember “El Presidente,” but the Nicaraguan-born right-hander is far from a household name in most baseball circles. He should be.
Martinez won 245 games from 1976 to 1998, despite never winning more than 16 in any one season. He pitched 3,999.2 innings and logged a 3.70 ERA. In 1991, at the age of 37, he threw a perfect game. That same season he led the National League in ERA, complete games and shutouts.
The Fringe Five is a weekly exercise (introduced last month) wherein the author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own heart to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.
Central to this exercise, of course, is a working definition of fringe. Currently, for the purposes of this column, it’s any prospect who was absent from all of three notable preseason top-100 prospect lists. (A more robust meditation on the idea of fringe can be found here.)
Since last week’s edition, there have been four total changes to The Fringe Five. Following his second promotion to the major leagues — during the course of which he’s received actual at-bats — Yankees infield prospect Corban Joseph is once again ineligible for this edition of the Five. Likewise, San Diego right-hander Burch Smith, who appeared here last week, remains on the Padres’ 25-man roster following his not-entirely-inspirational major-league debut this past Saturday (box).
Replacing the pair are Miami left-hander Brian Flynn and Chicago Cubs second baseman Ronald Torreyes — about which dynamic pair the reader can learn more below.
All those points having been made, here are this week’s Fringe Five.
Wilmer Flores, 2B/3B, New York NL (Profile)
Flores continues to do things at Triple-A — or, at least, continues to do things offensively at Triple-A — that are rarely done by 21-year-olds. Like, for example, here’s Flores’ line since he appeared among The Five last week: 30 PA, 2 HR, 3 BB, 3 K. And here’s his line overall this season, at least in terms of the truest possible outcomes: 159 PA, 3 HR, 12 BB, 16 K. And, by comparison, here’s other talented 21-year-old Oscar Taveras’s season line in the same Pacific Coast League: 127 PA, 4 HR, 6 BB, 17 K. He continues to produce evidence that he’s an entirely promising future hitter, is the point one derives from all this information.
Ben and Sam discuss listener emails about whether rising strikeout rates make defense less valuable, whether the worst teams should face off at the end of the year, and more.
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