FanGraphs+ is here! And all week, we’ve been giving away free subscriptions to the service just for skips and skittles. And since it’s one o’clock Eastern — yes, my colleague Carson Cistulli has had considerable difficulty making the time, but that’s fine — that means it’s time for another edition of the vaunted FanGraphs+ Player-Profile Game!

I: post a profile — one of the 1100+ player profiles that FanGraphs+ offers — with important information redacted. You: guess what player the profile belongs to. Current subscribers are disqualified, and winning without leaderboard work is encouraged.

Today’s profile sprung forth from the magnificent mind of Mike Newman one day:

Sure, the tools are impressive, but [Player]’s baseball skills also need to develop. And with [Player] making his full-season debut in 2013, the center fielder is behind the learning curve with respect to refining those skills: [Player] struck out 30-plus percent of the time in the [minor leagues]. This, after undergoing an overhaul of his hitting mechanics. In dynasty formats, I’d be looking to sell [Player] immediately. Let another owner gamble on his upside. In moderately deep leagues, a shrewd owner might even cash out of [Player} and buy White Sox Trayce Thompson as a penny stock. In terms of talent, they are similar players. (Mike Newman)

Table of Contents
Today’s edition of the Daily Notes has no table of contents, it appears.

Three Pleasures of the Caribbean Series Title Game
The Caribbean Series title game took place on Thursday night between the champions of the Dominican and Mexican winter leagues — Leones de Escogido and Yaquis de Obregon, respectively. To say, however, that it took place “Thursday night” isn’t entirely accurate: while the contest began at 9pm ET, it did not end until 18 innings and seven-plus hours later. In between, there were over 500 pitches thrown, three dramatic game-tying hits, and a game-winning cuadrangular by a native of Springfield, Massachusetts. In the end, the representatives of host country Mexico won 4-3 (box).

If the point of baseball as spectator sport is for it to be enjoyed — in all the ways, I mean, that humans are capable of enjoying things (a definition broad enough to include even the peculiar and flagellant experience that is Mariners fandom) — then this game succeeded in that regard.

In fact, the game succeeded in no fewer than three ways, I’d suggest — upon which ways I will now wax authoritative.

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The name Doug Clark shouldn’t mean much to fans of Major League Baseball. His name is in the record book — he appeared in eight games for San Francisco in 2005 and six for Oakland the next year. He went 1-for-11 with a walk and five strikeouts in his 12 plate appearances. On June 29th, 2006, Clark pinch hit for Dan Haren in the top of the seventh inning. Brian Sikorski struck him out, and his MLB career was over.

Most Americans never knew Doug Clark as a baseball player, and those who did likely forgot him quickly. But Clark’s baseball life was far from over.

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Since I missed Taylor Guerreri in Rays instructs, the biggest name player I saw in camps was recent first round pick Richie Shaffer. The Rays took Shaffer 25th overall out of Clemson and was seemingly the second-highest player on the board for many clubs in the first round, with at least one team in the top 10 picks having Shaffer in their final group. I didn’t see Shaffer as an amateur but got a solid look before he went to the Arizona Fall League and he’ll be an interesting player to monitor in 2013 to see how his tools play in pro ball.

The one thing scouts would mention first about Shaffer when I talked to them before the draft was bat speed. Not his hit or power tools, but bat speed specifically. If you’ve read my other articles you know that I focus on power and fastball velocity and how it is created—if it’s natural arm speed or strength or if the player is cheating mechanically to enhance his tools. Bat speed is to hitters what arm speed is to pitchers. It’s the building block of hitting and power so you don’t have to cheat to get either and have a chance to have both. A player can be raw at the plate but if he has bat speed there will always be a scout willing to overpay the player.

Shaffer doesn’t disappoint in this regard because it’s true plus bat speed, especially rare to find in a college hitter for the aforementioned reasons. Normally bat speed comes from a wiry strong, athletic, skinny-frame player, typically dual sport guys that can run a little bit. Another reason scouts lead with the bat speed on Shaffer is that he doesn’t fit in this box. Shaffer has a pro body, a strong, lean, tapered 6’3, 210 pounds with broad shoulders and an above average arm that could play anywhere on the field. That said, Shaffer isn’t a quick-twitch type athlete, as a below average runner with some stiffness and mechanical movements in his defense at third base. He could move to right field but given the foot speed and a body that should only get bigger, first base seem like his eventual home.

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Gary Bell was late for the glory. He debuted with the Cleveland Indians in 1958, one season removed from the best 10-year stretch in franchise history. From 1948 to 1957, the Tribe won at least 88 games nine times.

That doesn’t mean he didn’t enjoy himself. The right-hander was a hard thrower, and he lived life the same way. He won 121 games in 12 big-league seasons, and there were plenty of laughs to go with the strikeouts. Seventy-eight years old, he’s as gregarious today as he was in his playing days.

Bell talked about his time in Cleveland, including notable teammates, during a visit to Fenway Park last season.

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David Laurila: You broke into the big leagues in 1958. What was baseball in Cleveland like at that time?

Gary Bell: Cheap. I was making $7,000 a year, which is a little different from now. Our team was pretty good. My first year, we finished third or fourth, but in 1959 we finished second and probably should have won it. That’s the year the White Sox beat us out. It would have been a nice World Series. The Dodgers played in the Coliseum, which held 100,000. We got 75,000 in Cleveland, so it would have been a huge payoff for those days, probably have been five or 10 grand.

DL: You had some notable teammates.

GB: When I came up, old, great pitchers like Bob Lemon and Mike Garcia were still there. I didn’t really learn from them, though. Back in those days, if you were a rookie you were nothing. They didn’t want to help you, because they were afraid you were going to take their job. Herb Score was there, as well.

DL: You also played with “Sudden Sam” McDowell and the younger version of Luis Tiant. Which of them threw harder? Read the rest of this entry »

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Baltimore Orioles. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Brewers / Cardinals / Cubs / Diamondbacks / Dodgers / Giants / Mariners / Marlins / Mets / Nationals / Padres / Phillies / Pirates / Rangers / Rays / Reds / Rockies / Royals / Tigers / Twins / White Sox / Yankees.

Batters
Readers with an interest in arbitrary-ish end points will be keen on learning that, among major-league catchers over the last two seasons, Matt Wieters is fourth overall by WAR with a mark of 9.1. Other readers — even those who are entirely wary of arbitrary end points — will recognize that Wieters is projected by ZiPS to produce in 2013 roughly what he averaged between 2011 and -12. In either case, he’s probably one of the five-best catchers in the major leagues.

For as much as it will cost the team — i.e. something like $2.5 million total — experimenting with a platoon of Wilson Betemit and Danny Valencia (or the recently acquired Russ Canzler, as the case may be) at DH isn’t the worst possible idea. Isolating platoon skill requires a considerable number of plate appearances; however, the switch-hitting Betemit has been better against righties (117 wRC+, .350 BABIP, 1752 PA) and Valencia has been better against left-handers (127 wRC+, .343 BABIP, 326 PA).

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San Diego has an impressive system with both some high-ceiling talent and depth. The organization has had some impressive drafts recently, and a number of trades have brought in exciting talent.

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Ben and Sam preview the Twins’ season with Michael Bates and Bill Parker, and Pete talks to Star Tribune reporter Phill Miller (at 20:26).

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At present, Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, and Clayton Kershaw are three of the very greatest starting pitchers in the game. They’re also all two years away from free-agent eligibility, so there’s been talk of long-term contract extensions. Dave wrote about this subject last month, and he estimated that Hernandez could end up with a seven-year commitment worth about $150 million. That would be five years at $22 million apiece, attached to the end of the two years for which Felix is already signed.

Thursday has brought news of no confirmations. However, it’s also brought a report out of USA Today that Hernandez and the Mariners have agreed to terms on a seven-year deal worth $175 million. Follow-up reports say it isn’t official, and that there are still some little issues to work out, but the hard part looks to have been conquered. While the numbers might change a bit, it seems this should get finalized, and Hernandez should end up with a five-year contract extension, plus raises in 2013 and 2014. What we’re looking at is a seven-year commitment to a pitcher with a $25 million average annual value.

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