The reality of Jose Lobaton’s walk-off home run is that we don’t know what it’s going to mean yet. This is going to depend in large part on series context, on how the rest of the series goes, and if the Rays still lose to the Red Sox, Lobaton won’t be remembered forever. He’ll forever be a part of Rays history, but the next couple games will determine whether or not he becomes a legend. Dave Roberts‘ steal wouldn’t be Dave Roberts’ steal if the Red Sox still lost to the Yankees. It would’ve been a neat stolen base within a disappointing series. Maybe it’s not fair to have the significance of moments hang on the significance of other, related moments, but that’s the way things are. And speaking of things that aren’t fair, there’s the pitch that Lobaton hit out. I’d say that wasn’t particularly fair to Koji Uehara.

Something we know about pitchers: none of them are perfect. We know this because pitchers are people, and no people are perfect, even within their fields of expertise. Randy Johnson gave up hits. Lots of ’em. Mariano Rivera gave up home runs. Lots of ’em, kind of. Generally, when a pitcher gets hit, the response and assumption is that he made some mistakes. Mistake pitches get hit more often and harder than non-mistake pitches. But it has to be noted that not all of Johnson’s pitches that turned into hits were mistakes. Not all of Rivera’s pitches that turned into home runs were mistakes. One of the realities of pitching is that good pitches can get crushed, even if you do everything you want to do. That’s either frustrating or the source of some important perspective, and against Jose Lobaton, Uehara didn’t screw up. Against Jose Lobaton, at least this once, it didn’t matter.

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We don’t get a lot of time with the players this time of the year. So it was very nice of Doug Fister to spend some of that precious resource talking with me about his craft late last week. His thoughts could serve well as a backdrop for the six-foot-eight bulldog’s performance in Game Four today.

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The annual managerial carousel has started. Little more than a week after the completion of the regular season, there are already openings in Chicago [Cubs], Cincinnati, Seattle and Washington. Don’t be surprised if there are more.

Who will step in to fill these positions? Speculation abounds, with no shortage of names being bandied about. Some have previously managed in the big leagues, while others are looking for their first opportunity. Joe McEwing, who just completed his second season as the White Sox third base coach, is among those in the latter category.

The 40-year-old former infielder has been viewed as a future MLB manager since retiring after the 2006 season. “Super Joe” managed in the White Sox system for three years prior to joining Robin Ventura’s staff, and is highly-regarded thanks to his people skills and knowledge of the game.

In the first of a series of interviews with up-and-coming managerial candidates, McEwing discussed the approach and philosophies he would bring to the job. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben and Sam discuss the current true talent of Miguel Cabrera, then talk about pitchers starting on short rest in October.

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There was speculation that, had the Dodgers lost Game 3 to the Braves, they would’ve asked Clayton Kershaw to start Game 4 on short rest in order to help the team avoid elimination. The Dodgers wound up clobbering the Braves in Game 3, moving a win away from the NLCS, and now they’ve asked Clayton Kershaw to start Game 4 on short rest anyway. The official announcement was made earlier Monday, with Kershaw figuratively taking the ball from would-be starter Ricky Nolasco.

Generally, something like this is a desperation decision, but clearly the Dodgers are a team that’s not desperate. They’ve got two chances to get rid of Atlanta, and they were guaranteed to have Kershaw get one of them. Now they’re lined up to give the starts to Kershaw and Zack Greinke, instead of Nolasco and Kershaw. That is, if a Game 5 is necessary. In making this decision, the Dodgers have demonstrated that they don’t want to see a Game 5 at all.

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The A’s and Tigers are playing Game 3 right now, but they played Game 2 on Saturday night, and that game was umpired by one CB Bucknor. Bucknor is routinely considered one of baseball’s worst umpires, and Saturday he made a few questionable decisions, the most questionable of which was probably a called strike three against Seth Smith in the bottom of the second. Now, granted, the A’s eventually won, and there were two out and none on at the time, so it’s not like anyone really cares anymore. The story isn’t Bucknor — it’s Sonny Gray and Stephen Vogt. But there’s something I want to bring your attention to.

Justin Verlander had fallen behind Smith 3-and-0, then he threw a couple strikes. In a full count, Verlander came with a fastball, and it seemed to miss both down and away. Smith took it, in theory for a ball, but Bucknor ruled it was a strike, and Smith expressed his disapproval before returning to the dugout during the inning break. People on Twitter were upset, and even the TV broadcast noted the pitch looked like a ball. Shortly thereafter, the game resumed, and Bucknor got a little better.

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Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2013-14 free-agent market.

Note that, this year, in addition to asking readers to estimate the years/dollars each free agent is likely to receive, FanGraphs is also requesting that readers make note of how much they’d pay each free agent were they, themselves, actual GMs.

In this edition: Shin-Soo Choo.

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The narrative concerning Josh Donaldson has been established for the moment. He was a piece in the deal that sent Rich Harden from Oakland to Chicago in July of 2008. He was converted to third base from catcher gradually between 2009 and -12, taking up the former position in a full-time capacity at some point in 2012. Generally speaking, he demonstrated some promising offensive and defensive skills, but was never considered a top prospect. Then, in 2013, he produced an MVP-type season.

That Donaldson outperformed expectations is a fact. How he did so, though — like, in what skills precisely he demonstrated improvement and to what degree he demonstrated it — this sort of thing merits further consideration, I’ll suggest.

To begin that further consideration, we start with following — namely, a collection of projections for Donaldson entering the 2013 season. While the methodology for calculating each of them is different, the principles informing all four are roughly the same, including some combination of past performance, allowance for the player’s current place along the aging curve, defensive ability, etc.

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Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2013-14 free-agent market.

Note that, this year, in addition to asking readers to estimate the years/dollars each free agent is likely to receive, FanGraphs is also requesting that readers make note of how much they’d pay each free agent were they, themselves, actual GMs.

In this edition: Marlon Byrd.

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Despite being up 2-1 in the NLDS, today is a pretty important game for the Pirates. A loss not only means that the series goes to a deciding game 5, but that game 5 would be in St. Louis, and the Cardinals would put Adam Wainwright back on the hill for that deciding game. Beating Wainwright at home is no easy task, and they can’t feel very good about that match-up given how poorly the first game of this series went for the Pirates.

So, it’s not an elimination game for Pittsburgh, but this is the one they want to win. Beating Michael Wacha in Pittsburgh is a much easier task than beating Wainwright in St. Louis. To win this game, though, they’re going to need a strong performance from Charlie Morton, or at least, several innings that keep the score close before the battle of the bullpens takes over. If you look at Morton’s season line — 116 innings, 3.26 ERA/3.60 FIP/3.69 xFIP — that doesn’t seem like it should be too much to ask. But Morton, as a pitcher, has one very big flaw that might be a problem against St. Louis today.

Morton throws fastballs about 70% of the time, and most of his fastballs are of the two-seam variety. It’s why he posted a 62% GB% this year, and it’s why he absolutely destroys right-handed batters. He throws a heavy, pounding sinker that just eats RHBs for breakfast, but the same strengths that allow him do dominate righties create serious problems against left-handers.

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