Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Actionable Counsel from the Readership
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Actionable Counsel from the Readership
Introduction
In yesterday’s edition of these Notes, the author introduced a new calculation for Team and Game NERD scores for September — one designed, that is, to reflect the influence of the playoffs and playoff odds on the watchability of games during that month. While entirely the product of what one would regard as “the college try” — or at least “the prestigious boarding-school try” — the author’s methodology, like the author himself, was poorly conceived.

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The preliminary rosters were recently announced for the impending Arizona Fall League. If you’re not familiar with the AFL, all you really need to know is that it’s an off-season league that offers addition innings/at-bats to prospects from around baseball. Some of the names you’ll know quite well. Others, well, you’ll probably never hear from again. And, frankly, a lot of players fall under that latter grouping.

Because there is such a wide range of talent in the league — as well as for a smattering of other reasons — any numbers produced in the league should be taken with a grain of salt. Oh, and each organization is responsible for providing a specific number of prospects to play in the league.

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Note: both White Sox infielder Marcus Semien and Padres right-hander Burch Smith would likely have appeared in this week’s edition of the Five, but for having been promoted earlier in the week as a result of September roster expansion.

The Fringe Five is a weekly exercise (introduced in April) wherein the author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own heart to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to this exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe. The author recognizes that the word has different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of this column, however — and for reasons discussed more thoroughly in a previous edition of the Five — the author has considered eligible for the Five any prospect who was absent from all of three notable preseason top-100 prospect lists.

That said, it should also be noted that in cases where the collective enthusiasm regarding a player’s talent becomes very fevered — like how the enthusiasm collectively right now for Philadelphia third-base prospect Maikel Franco has become very fevered, for example — that will likely affect said player’s likelihood of appearing among the Five, given that the purpose of the series, at some level, is to identify prospects who are demonstrating promise above what one might expect given their current reputations within the prospect community.

With that said, here are this week’s Fringe Five:

Mookie Betts, 2B, Boston (Profile)
Having temporarily exhausted his store of praise for the Betts, the author has decided this week to utilize the rhetorical device known as “plagiarism” to the end of providing the requisite copy regarding the 20-year-old second baseman. The victim, in this case, is Red Sox beat reporter and very recent podcast guest Alex Speier.

Of Betts, Speier wrote the following on Monday for WEEI.com:

The number of players with at least a .400 OBP, 10 homers and 25 steals this year in the minors? That would be three. Aside from Betts, the other two? Byron Buxton, considered the top prospect in all of minor league baseball, who hit .334/.424/.520 with 12 homers and 55 steals as a 19-year-old in Single-A and High-A, and George Springer, the former UConn star who is hitting .303/.411/.600 with 37 homers and 45 steals between Double-A and Triple-A as a 23-year-old.

Betts isn’t Buxton or Springer. But there’s no one else in the minors who’s shown his diverse array of offensive weapons this year (with excellent defense at second base to boot), suggesting that he’s forced a drastic re-evaluation of a skill set that garnered no public attention entering this year.

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There were a variety of reactions when news broke that the Houston Astros would be moving from the National League Central to the American League West in time for the 2013 regular season. Most generally, a lot of people were pleased Major League Baseball would finally achieve league and divisional balance after years of being weird. Many other people worried about the potential consequences of regular interleague play. Astros fans were annoyed, since their team would have to make a big change from decades of franchise history. Fans of other teams in the AL West licked their chops, since — at least in the short-term — the Astros were supposed to be terrible. And fans of other American League teams in the were annoyed, like Astros fans, since the league shift and unbalanced schedule would give the West an advantage. The presence of the Astros in the West stood to give that division a leg up in the race for wild cards.

Sometimes, the projections are way off. This year’s Washington Nationals were supposed to be a potential juggernaut, and right now they’re fighting to remain a .500 team. But sometimes the projections are right on. This year’s Astros have been dreadful, even more so as they’ve trimmed salary and reduced payroll. By FIP, Astros pitchers have collectively been a little below replacement-level. As a team, the team has a lower WAR than Marlon Byrd. The Astros have been more or less as bad as people thought, so, to what extent have they actually influenced the American League playoff race? Have they played a meaningful part?

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Hunter Renfroe finished his amateur career with a bang. The 21-year-old outfielder was one of the top players in the college ranks, hitting a robust .345, with 16 home runs, at Mississippi State. The San Diego Padres were impressed. They took him with the 13th overall pick in the June draft.

Renfroe’s tool kit includes more than a lethal bat from the right side. He also has plus wheels and a gun in the outfield. Originally drafted out of high school by the Red Sox, he had pro potential at multiple positions, including pitcher and catcher.

Renfroe had a solid first professional season. In 43 games between Eugene and Fort Wayne he hit .271, with 20 of his 46 hits going for extra bases. Read the rest of this entry »

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A few things to know, that you already knew: (1) FanGraphs isn’t very busy on the weekends. (2) Much of the content on FanGraphs is planned and scheduled ahead of time. (3) We’re coming off a holiday weekend during which an awful lot of people got away to do some traveling or relaxing. (4) Baseball, this past weekend, was as active as ever. Put it all together and, here on FanGraphs, one could argue baseball has lately been under-covered. Things have happened that didn’t get words to them.

Things like trades on or before August 31, which is an important deadline for purposes having to do with postseason roster eligibility. Last Friday and Saturday, there were five trades swung in major-league baseball, none of which were written up on the site. This is an attempt to make up for that, by addressing them all at once. “Better late than never,” is an expression that applies, to a point. Below, find all five moves, each with its own subjectively appropriate classification. Five moves for five contenders. What have they done to themselves?

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On the face of it, extending Will Venable for two years and $8.5 million — as the Padres have done today — is a no-brainer. Even before this year’s mini-breakout, Venable has spent four years being worth something close to two wins per year. Despite the decline coming for the thirty-year-old outfielder, he can most likely manage the two wins over the next two years that it would take to make this contract a winner.

But there’s a chance that this will be a great move for the Padres, and a single game in August might have something to do with remaining promise, despite his age.

In that game, Will Venable made impact plays on both sides of the plate. He robbed Marlon Byrd of a home run in center field in the eighth inning. Then he stepped to the plate with runners on in the ninth inning and hit a game-winning blast off of lefty Pedro Feliciano. Despite the small-sample nature of a highlight game, the skills he displayed on August 18th are part of what could make this deal great. And the player’s appraisal of his own game betrays the chance that he’s still getting better.

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