2014 ZiPS Projections – Arizona Diamondbacks

After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Cleveland / Detroit / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Minnesota / New York AL / Philadelphia / San Diego / Seattle / St. Louis.

Batters
In the depth-chart graphic below, the author has assigned the entirety of both Gerardo Parra and A.J. Pollock’s projected WAR to center field. In reality, Parra will likely record starts all over the outfield — an ideal scenario, on account of how Parra is (a) the only one of the the D-backs’ four main outfielders who bats left-handed and also how he’s (b) actually projected to record the highest WAR, both by rate and also in total, of all those same outfielders, including new and powerful acquisition Mark Trumbo.

Generally speaking, there’s not a lot in the way of obvious weakness wherein Arizona’s field players are concerned, just as there’s also not a lot in the way of highest-end talent, either. It’s not surprising to find, following his 2013 season, that Paul Goldschmidt is projected to lead the team offensively. For a number of reasons, probably — including his pretty high BABIP last season and also just how regression works — ZiPS doesn’t foresee the first baseman reaching quite the frenzied heights of his 2013 campaign.

Pitchers
Not unlike their offensive counterparts, the constituent members of the Arizona starting rotation are all, generally speaking, within shouting distance of average. Right-hander Brandon McCarthy falls short of that (1.6) in terms of total projected WAR, although even that lack is due mostly to a conservative innings projection (because of his recent history of injury, one assumes). Of some interest will be the 2014 season of Randall Delgado, which other right-hander recorded nearly a league-average xFIP- (105) in 2013, but whose projections are less optimistic than that.

One could ask reasonable questions about the D-backs’ offseason trade for Addison Reed — which cost the club prospect Matt Davidson — and perhaps receive less in the way of totally reasonable answers. Still, that doesn’t make Reed’s likely contribution to what appears to be an above-average bullpen any less real.

Bench/Prospects
Arizona general manager Kevin Towers has announced that he expects Chris Owings to compete with half-incumbent Didi Gregorius for the starting shortstop job in Arizona. The pair receive almost identical WAR projections on a rate basis here. Much less heralded as a prospect than Owings, but still regarded by ZiPS as capable of producing something like league-average value, is outfielder Ender Inciarte, entering his age-23 season. It is not surprising, among pitching prospects, to find that former seventh-overall selection Archie Bradley receives the best projection. He’s good, is why it isn’t surprising.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the D-backs, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Paul Goldschmidt	R	26	1B	668	90	156	34	2	32	113	14	5
Martin Prado	R	30	3B	663	76	175	36	3	14	80	6	5
Miguel Montero	L	30	C	504	51	110	21	1	14	66	0	0
Gerardo Parra	L	27	RF	562	66	138	31	5	10	50	11	6
Aaron Hill	R	32	2B	514	61	128	28	3	14	63	7	5
A.J. Pollock	R	26	CF	572	70	141	31	5	8	53	18	5
Chris Owings	R	22	SS	639	73	165	30	6	11	67	16	6
Mark Trumbo	R	28	LF	632	84	157	32	3	35	112	6	4
Didi Gregorius	L	24	SS	504	55	122	21	7	8	48	3	6
Ender Inciarte	L	23	CF	563	60	142	22	6	4	44	37	10
Cliff Pennington	B	30	SS	432	45	98	20	3	6	37	10	4
Cody Ross	R	33	LF	440	51	103	22	1	14	58	3	2
Tyler Bortnick	R	26	2B	480	54	104	21	5	4	44	21	5
Nick Ahmed	R	24	SS	597	62	129	25	5	6	49	23	10
Raywilly Gomez	B	24	C	405	36	93	18	0	1	33	1	1
Tony Campana	L	28	CF	423	51	97	11	4	1	22	36	8
Tuffy Gosewisch	R	30	C	359	29	77	20	1	6	37	1	3
Eric Chavez	L	36	3B	234	23	55	10	1	8	36	0	0
Bobby Wilson	R	31	C	214	23	44	11	0	4	21	0	1
Kila Ka’aihue	L	30	1B	463	51	95	20	1	18	62	1	1
Danny Dorn	L	29	RF	502	51	108	24	2	18	61	4	1
Andy Marte	R	30	3B	204	23	45	8	1	6	24	0	1
Jordan Parraz	R	29	RF	369	41	80	16	2	9	37	5	2
Juan Rivera	R	35	LF	387	38	93	17	1	9	52	2	2
Nick Evans	R	28	1B	426	48	95	20	1	13	50	1	2
Jake Fox	R	31	LF	187	18	39	11	1	5	26	0	0
Matt Tuiasosopo	R	28	LF	372	43	72	13	1	9	46	2	1
Brent Clevlen	R	30	RF	245	24	50	10	2	6	26	3	1
Alfredo Marte	R	25	RF	442	45	101	23	2	9	49	3	2
Blake Lalli	L	31	C	387	39	87	16	0	8	40	0	1
Keon Broxton	R	24	CF	491	46	95	15	3	9	41	12	7
Brandon Jacobs	R	23	LF	523	50	110	26	1	13	53	11	9
Sawyer Carroll	L	28	1B	332	33	66	12	3	6	36	4	3
Mike Jacobs	L	33	1B	471	45	95	18	1	15	54	1	1

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Paul Goldschmidt	668	12.4%	24.6%	.233	.322	.271	.364	.504	.367
Martin Prado	663	6.5%	9.2%	.138	.298	.287	.333	.425	.328
Miguel Montero	504	10.5%	22.0%	.148	.301	.250	.337	.398	.319
Gerardo Parra	562	7.3%	16.9%	.139	.314	.271	.327	.410	.313
Aaron Hill	514	7.0%	13.0%	.162	.292	.274	.331	.436	.331
A.J. Pollock	572	6.1%	16.8%	.123	.311	.268	.315	.391	.311
Chris Owings	639	3.4%	21.4%	.122	.332	.270	.298	.392	.302
Mark Trumbo	632	6.8%	23.6%	.245	.303	.269	.320	.514	.354
Didi Gregorius	504	6.3%	16.7%	.128	.307	.265	.317	.393	.302
Ender Inciarte	563	4.8%	12.3%	.088	.305	.272	.311	.360	.300
Cliff Pennington	432	7.4%	18.1%	.112	.297	.250	.307	.362	.292
Cody Ross	440	7.7%	19.1%	.167	.294	.260	.321	.427	.324
Tyler Bortnick	480	8.1%	18.8%	.100	.299	.244	.319	.344	.300
Nick Ahmed	597	5.5%	19.6%	.096	.285	.234	.280	.330	.270
Raywilly Gomez	405	7.7%	12.8%	.058	.290	.253	.313	.311	.278
Tony Campana	423	5.9%	23.4%	.056	.330	.249	.295	.305	.276
Tuffy Gosewisch	359	3.9%	19.5%	.119	.270	.229	.266	.348	.266
Eric Chavez	234	7.3%	18.8%	.170	.287	.259	.312	.429	.314
Bobby Wilson	214	7.9%	14.5%	.122	.258	.234	.298	.356	.281
Kila Ka’aihue	463	10.6%	24.0%	.187	.273	.233	.317	.420	.323
Danny Dorn	502	7.0%	25.9%	.179	.286	.235	.293	.414	.309
Andy Marte	204	6.4%	19.6%	.149	.271	.239	.289	.388	.296
Jordan Parraz	369	6.0%	21.4%	.139	.282	.236	.293	.375	.296
Juan Rivera	387	4.9%	11.4%	.128	.270	.258	.300	.386	.299
Nick Evans	426	7.5%	25.4%	.156	.301	.244	.300	.400	.305
Jake Fox	187	4.8%	21.9%	.163	.268	.227	.283	.390	.297
Matt Tuiasosopo	372	9.7%	28.8%	.128	.293	.219	.302	.347	.291
Brent Clevlen	245	6.5%	31.8%	.142	.306	.221	.273	.363	.281
Alfredo Marte	442	4.5%	21.9%	.130	.297	.244	.287	.374	.291
Blake Lalli	387	5.4%	21.2%	.111	.288	.240	.282	.351	.277
Keon Broxton	491	6.3%	36.0%	.106	.320	.210	.262	.316	.256
Brandon Jacobs	523	5.5%	31.5%	.139	.315	.229	.280	.368	.283
Sawyer Carroll	332	8.4%	25.0%	.120	.282	.219	.287	.339	.276
Mike Jacobs	471	7.0%	27.8%	.150	.275	.219	.274	.369	.282

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Paul Goldschmidt	668	6.9	133	2	3.9	Derrek Lee
Martin Prado	663	5.3	105	2	3.2	Rich Rollins
Miguel Montero	504	4.8	99	1	3.0	Ed Bailey
Gerardo Parra	562	4.9	99	14	2.5	Troy O’Leary
Aaron Hill	514	5.3	107	0	2.4	Rich Aurilia
A.J. Pollock	572	4.7	91	4	2.3	Marlon Byrd
Chris Owings	639	4.4	86	1	2.2	Zoilo Versalles
Mark Trumbo	632	6.0	122	-10	2.0	Bubba Trammell
Didi Gregorius	504	4.4	92	3	2.0	Russ Adams
Ender Inciarte	563	4.5	82	5	1.9	Endy Chavez
Cliff Pennington	432	4.1	81	3	1.5	Leo Durocher
Cody Ross	440	5.0	101	1	1.2	Shane Spencer
Tyler Bortnick	480	4.2	81	0	1.1	Carlos Febles
Nick Ahmed	597	3.3	65	7	1.1	Robert Andino
Raywilly Gomez	405	3.5	71	0	0.9	Tom Wieghaus
Tony Campana	423	3.8	64	5	0.8	Alex Cole
Tuffy Gosewisch	359	3.1	66	3	0.7	Brandon Marsters
Eric Chavez	234	4.9	99	-1	0.7	Richie Hebner
Bobby Wilson	214	3.6	77	-1	0.6	Chad Moeller
Kila Ka’aihue	463	4.7	99	-1	0.5	Bob Tumpane
Danny Dorn	502	4.3	90	-2	0.3	Peter Camelo
Andy Marte	204	3.9	82	-2	0.1	Tom Nevers
Jordan Parraz	369	3.9	80	3	0.0	Lou List
Juan Rivera	387	4.2	85	-1	0.0	Chad Mottola
Nick Evans	426	4.2	89	0	0.0	Justin Huber
Jake Fox	187	3.9	81	0	-0.1	Darrell Whitmore
Matt Tuiasosopo	372	3.6	76	0	-0.2	Mike Richardson
Brent Clevlen	245	3.5	71	1	-0.2	Mike Berger
Alfredo Marte	442	3.8	78	0	-0.3	Julio Zuleta
Blake Lalli	387	3.5	71	-11	-0.4	Jamie Quirk
Keon Broxton	491	2.8	57	3	-0.4	Willie Magallanes
Brandon Jacobs	523	3.5	75	0	-0.6	Matt Esquivel
Sawyer Carroll	332	3.3	70	0	-0.8	Nathan Panther
Mike Jacobs	471	3.5	73	0	-1.1	Jody Davis

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Patrick Corbin	L	24	33	31	201.7	167	52	19	192	85	79
Wade Miley	L	27	31	30	186.7	136	53	18	187	85	79
Trevor Cahill	R	26	30	30	178.3	131	69	17	175	86	80
Brandon McCarthy	R	30	22	22	137.7	89	24	14	148	66	62
Archie Bradley	R	21	24	24	130.0	95	58	12	130	66	62
Addison Reed	R	25	63	0	70.0	75	19	6	61	27	25
Josh Collmenter	R	28	54	0	78.0	72	22	8	70	31	29
David Hernandez	R	29	70	0	68.0	79	26	7	55	27	25
Brad Ziegler	R	34	69	0	61.3	41	19	4	57	24	22
J.J. Putz	R	37	47	2	42.0	45	13	4	35	16	15
Andrew Chafin	L	24	27	24	133.0	90	67	13	138	74	69
Daniel Hudson	R	27	8	8	48.3	36	12	6	50	25	23
Will Harris	R	29	60	0	60.7	60	23	6	56	27	25
Matt Reynolds	L	29	53	0	42.7	40	12	4	40	18	17
Randall Delgado	R	24	29	28	153.0	114	57	25	160	89	83
Joe Thatcher	L	32	54	0	30.7	29	10	3	29	14	13
Jake Barrett	R	22	55	0	53.7	43	15	6	53	26	24
Tony Sipp	L	30	64	0	51.3	51	23	7	46	25	23
Marcos Mateo	R	30	30	0	34.7	28	16	3	34	17	16
Joe Paterson	L	28	55	0	47.0	37	18	5	47	24	22
Charles Brewer	R	26	23	20	120.7	77	39	18	134	72	67
Chase Anderson	R	26	20	14	77.7	53	28	11	84	46	43
Matt Langwell	R	28	50	0	68.0	50	34	5	68	34	32
Matt Stites	R	24	47	0	48.0	39	11	7	49	25	23
Zeke Spruill	R	24	26	23	130.3	64	52	15	149	78	73
Bo Schultz	R	28	32	8	63.3	35	29	7	69	37	35
David Pauley	R	31	23	2	41.3	23	14	5	46	25	23
Jess Todd	R	28	44	0	59.3	44	29	7	61	33	31
Eury de la Rosa	L	24	61	0	63.3	53	29	9	63	35	33
Ryan Rowland-Smith	L	31	30	7	67.0	45	34	9	72	42	39
Alex Sanabia	R	25	14	14	72.0	39	24	13	85	47	44
Brett Lorin	R	27	30	9	77.0	43	30	12	88	50	47
Adam Russell	R	31	43	0	50.7	34	39	5	53	32	30
Garrett Mock	R	31	34	7	61.7	42	37	10	68	42	39
Warner Madrigal	R	30	45	0	57.3	47	32	9	59	36	34
Nelson Figueroa	R	40	9	6	40.0	16	21	8	51	33	31
AJ Schugel	R	25	23	20	98.3	59	55	16	113	71	66
Steve Garrison	L	27	33	11	71.7	35	24	17	91	57	53

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Patrick Corbin	201.7	849	19.7%	6.1%	.287	3.53	3.61	89	91
Wade Miley	186.7	800	17.0%	6.6%	.287	3.81	3.85	96	97
Trevor Cahill	178.3	779	16.8%	8.9%	.285	4.04	4.21	102	106
Brandon McCarthy	137.7	585	15.2%	4.1%	.296	4.05	3.78	102	95
Archie Bradley	130.0	578	16.4%	10.0%	.292	4.29	4.40	108	111
Addison Reed	70.0	290	25.9%	6.6%	.294	3.21	2.99	81	76
Josh Collmenter	78.0	326	22.1%	6.7%	.279	3.35	3.42	85	86
David Hernandez	68.0	285	27.7%	9.1%	.284	3.31	3.42	84	86
Brad Ziegler	61.3	260	15.8%	7.3%	.273	3.23	3.51	82	89
J.J. Putz	42.0	174	25.9%	7.5%	.279	3.21	3.19	81	80
Andrew Chafin	133.0	604	14.9%	11.1%	.294	4.67	4.77	118	120
Daniel Hudson	48.3	207	17.4%	5.8%	.290	4.28	4.10	108	103
Will Harris	60.7	261	23.0%	8.8%	.296	3.71	3.71	94	94
Matt Reynolds	42.7	180	22.2%	6.7%	.290	3.59	3.14	91	79
Randall Delgado	153.0	676	16.9%	8.4%	.284	4.88	4.96	123	125
Joe Thatcher	30.7	131	22.1%	7.6%	.295	3.82	3.52	96	89
Jake Barrett	53.7	229	18.8%	6.5%	.292	4.02	4.02	101	101
Tony Sipp	51.3	223	22.9%	10.3%	.279	4.03	4.30	102	108
Marcos Mateo	34.7	154	18.2%	10.4%	.295	4.15	4.23	105	107
Joe Paterson	47.0	206	18.0%	8.7%	.298	4.21	4.31	106	109
Charles Brewer	120.7	535	14.4%	7.3%	.295	5.00	5.00	126	126
Chase Anderson	77.7	345	15.4%	8.1%	.294	4.98	4.92	126	124
Matt Langwell	68.0	306	16.3%	11.1%	.297	4.24	4.33	107	109
Matt Stites	48.0	204	19.1%	5.4%	.292	4.31	4.25	109	107
Zeke Spruill	130.3	592	10.8%	8.8%	.297	5.04	5.06	127	128
Bo Schultz	63.3	288	12.2%	10.1%	.293	4.97	5.01	125	127
David Pauley	41.3	184	12.5%	7.6%	.295	5.01	4.79	126	121
Jess Todd	59.3	268	16.4%	10.8%	.294	4.70	4.78	119	121
Eury de la Rosa	63.3	282	18.8%	10.3%	.287	4.69	4.76	118	120
Ryan Rowland-Smith	67.0	307	14.7%	11.1%	.293	5.24	5.27	132	133
Alex Sanabia	72.0	325	12.0%	7.4%	.294	5.50	5.51	139	139
Brett Lorin	77.0	349	12.3%	8.6%	.295	5.49	5.44	139	137
Adam Russell	50.7	244	13.9%	16.0%	.296	5.33	5.53	135	140
Garrett Mock	61.7	290	14.5%	12.8%	.294	5.69	5.86	144	148
Warner Madrigal	57.3	263	17.9%	12.2%	.293	5.34	5.45	135	138
Nelson Figueroa	40.0	192	8.3%	10.9%	.299	6.97	6.77	176	171
AJ Schugel	98.3	463	12.7%	11.9%	.298	6.04	5.97	152	151
Steve Garrison	71.7	330	10.6%	7.3%	.297	6.66	6.44	168	163

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Patrick Corbin	201.7	7.45	2.32	0.85	111	3.5	Tom Glavine
Wade Miley	186.7	6.56	2.55	0.87	103	2.7	Mark Thurmond
Trevor Cahill	178.3	6.61	3.48	0.86	97	2.1	Jim Beattie
Brandon McCarthy	137.7	5.82	1.57	0.92	96	1.6	Ron Reed
Archie Bradley	130.0	6.58	4.02	0.83	91	1.1	Brian Holman
Addison Reed	70.0	9.64	2.44	0.77	122	0.8	Robb Nen
Josh Collmenter	78.0	8.31	2.54	0.92	117	0.8	Geoff Geary
David Hernandez	68.0	10.46	3.44	0.93	118	0.7	Kyle Farnsworth
Brad Ziegler	61.3	6.02	2.79	0.59	121	0.7	Tom Ferrick
J.J. Putz	42.0	9.64	2.79	0.86	122	0.6	Lee Smith
Andrew Chafin	133.0	6.09	4.53	0.88	84	0.5	Jimmy Anderson
Daniel Hudson	48.3	6.71	2.24	1.12	91	0.4	Mark Knudson
Will Harris	60.7	8.90	3.41	0.89	105	0.3	Steve Andrade
Matt Reynolds	42.7	8.43	2.53	0.84	109	0.3	Bobby Seay
Randall Delgado	153.0	6.71	3.35	1.47	80	0.2	Roy Smith
Joe Thatcher	30.7	8.50	2.93	0.88	102	0.1	Lance Painter
Jake Barrett	53.7	7.21	2.51	1.01	97	0.1	Dan Giese
Tony Sipp	51.3	8.95	4.04	1.23	97	0.1	Greg McCarthy
Marcos Mateo	34.7	7.26	4.15	0.78	94	0.0	Gregg Olson
Joe Paterson	47.0	7.09	3.45	0.96	93	0.0	Matt Dunbar
Charles Brewer	120.7	5.74	2.91	1.34	78	0.0	Bobby Chouinard
Chase Anderson	77.7	6.14	3.24	1.27	78	0.0	Steffen Majer
Matt Langwell	68.0	6.62	4.50	0.66	92	-0.1	Mike Bumstead
Matt Stites	48.0	7.31	2.06	1.31	91	-0.1	Kevin Crafton
Zeke Spruill	130.3	4.42	3.59	1.04	78	-0.1	Jake Dittler
Bo Schultz	63.3	4.98	4.12	1.00	79	-0.2	Marty McLeary
David Pauley	41.3	5.01	3.05	1.09	78	-0.3	Todd Williams
Jess Todd	59.3	6.68	4.40	1.06	83	-0.4	Ryan Baker
Eury de la Rosa	63.3	7.54	4.12	1.28	83	-0.4	Kevin Foster
Ryan Rowland-Smith	67.0	6.04	4.57	1.21	75	-0.4	Dan Smith
Alex Sanabia	72.0	4.88	3.00	1.63	71	-0.4	Brandon Emanuel
Brett Lorin	77.0	5.03	3.51	1.40	71	-0.7	Kevin Vent
Adam Russell	50.7	6.04	6.92	0.89	73	-0.7	Jerry Johnson
Garrett Mock	61.7	6.13	5.40	1.46	69	-0.8	Mike Sullivan
Warner Madrigal	57.3	7.38	5.03	1.41	73	-0.8	Jim Dedrick
Nelson Figueroa	40.0	3.60	4.73	1.80	56	-1.0	Michael Riley
AJ Schugel	98.3	5.40	5.04	1.46	65	-1.3	Nick Skuse
Steve Garrison	71.7	4.39	3.01	2.13	59	-1.6	Tommy Phelps

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.