2014 ZiPS Projections – Atlanta Braves

After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Atlanta Braves. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Boston / Cleveland / Philadelphia / St. Louis.

Batters
Of some interest this offseason will be how various projection systems attend to the quite possibly anomalous Chris Johnson. With nearly 2,000 major-league plate appearances now recorded, Atlanta’s third baseman has a career BABIP of .361 — i.e. about the highest figure one will find from any batter with a sample of that magnitude. ZiPS projects Johnson to record a .338 BABIP in 2014; Oliver and Steamer, .345 and .342, respectively.

Johnson will rely on his batted-ball profile to remain even an average player in 2014, however, it appears. ZiPS projects him to post something between one and two wins — a roughly equivalent total to fellow infielder Dan Uggla, whose 2013 campaign was much less successful. Both players are projected to post nearly league-average offensive lines. Rather, it’s their defensive shortcomings for which they suffer most significantly.

Pitchers
In Mike Minor, Kris Medlen, and Julio Teheran, Atlanta has three pitchers projected to add about 11 wins above replacement in 2014 and yet likely only to make about $10 million (assuming the former two pitchers receive roughly their projected arbitration salaries according to Matt Swartz’s model). Paying about $1 million per win is what is commonly referred to as “the best possible strategy” by general managers, one assumes.

After that triumvirate, there’s less clarity. Brandon Beachy has been an above-average pitcher in the majors on a per-inning basis. Of some trouble for him has been recording a lot of those (i.e. innings) in a single season. Alex Wood, whose mechanics are effing deligtful, has been little else but excellent in his short professional career.

Alex Wood (to Troy Tulowitzki):

Bench/Prospects
Should Dan Uggla’s difficulties continue into 2014, there are signs that Tommy La Stella would make for an entirely adequate replacement at second base. He and catcher Christian Bethancourt are, according to ZiPS, the two field players most prepared to contribute at the major-league level. Among pitchers, ready help is more sparse, although right-handed starters Aaron Northcraft and J.R. Graham might able to provide something better than replacement-level innings if summoned from the minors.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Atlantans, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Andrelton Simmons	R	24	SS	601	66	147	27	6	11	56	10	8
Jason Heyward	L	24	RF	538	74	122	25	3	20	57	10	6
Freddie Freeman	L	24	1B	655	88	164	31	2	25	102	2	1
Justin Upton	R	26	LF	655	94	147	28	3	24	74	15	6
Evan Gattis	R	27	C	405	44	94	22	2	19	61	1	2
B.J. Upton	R	29	CF	551	62	113	26	3	19	57	23	7
Christian Bethancourt	R	22	C	390	39	96	19	1	10	40	11	8
Tommy La Stella	L	25	2B	378	42	93	20	4	6	42	6	2
Dan Uggla	R	34	2B	560	69	105	18	2	23	69	2	2
Chris Johnson	R	29	3B	556	52	143	29	3	14	77	3	0
Tyler Pastornicky	R	24	2B	446	49	108	18	3	5	35	10	5
Gerald Laird	R	34	C	158	14	35	8	1	2	14	1	1
Todd Cunningham	B	25	CF	502	55	113	15	6	3	35	15	6
Elmer Reyes	R	23	SS	485	44	109	23	4	5	43	5	3
Elliot Johnson	B	30	2B	299	32	64	10	4	4	27	16	5
Alden Carrithers	L	29	3B	350	35	78	13	1	1	23	10	4
Tyler Greene	R	30	2B	383	43	80	16	3	8	33	13	3
Ramiro Pena	B	28	3B	241	24	53	9	2	3	20	2	2
Blake DeWitt	L	28	3B	158	14	34	7	2	2	8	1	0
Paul Janish	R	31	3B	296	28	59	13	1	2	20	1	1
Christian Marrero	L	27	1B	471	46	93	21	4	9	44	6	3
Jordan Schafer	L	27	CF	381	43	73	13	3	4	26	24	8
Stefan Gartrell	R	30	RF	441	46	91	18	0	14	47	4	1
Ernesto Mejia	R	28	1B	561	56	117	30	1	21	69	6	2
Joey Terdoslavich	B	25	RF	493	51	113	28	3	13	55	3	3
Reed Johnson	R	37	RF	183	17	40	8	2	2	14	1	1
Jose Constanza	L	30	LF	456	47	110	7	5	1	28	18	10
Edward Salcedo	R	22	3B	540	53	116	24	3	13	53	17	14
Phil Gosselin	R	25	2B	516	47	111	19	4	4	42	7	2
Steven Lerud	L	29	C	213	18	36	7	0	2	15	0	1
William Beckwith	L	23	1B	342	35	68	15	0	11	36	9	7
Greg Golson	R	28	RF	409	39	85	15	5	6	31	15	4
Jose Martinez	R	25	RF	512	47	120	20	2	6	38	5	5

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Andrelton Simmons	601	5.8%	9.8%	.131	.280	.267	.313	.397	.305
Jason Heyward	538	10.2%	21.7%	.192	.300	.257	.340	.448	.344
Freddie Freeman	655	10.4%	20.9%	.192	.333	.286	.365	.477	.361
Justin Upton	655	11.1%	23.8%	.187	.313	.259	.349	.445	.344
Evan Gattis	405	5.4%	20.5%	.221	.273	.251	.301	.472	.329
B.J. Upton	551	9.3%	28.3%	.182	.294	.231	.304	.413	.315
Christian Bethancourt	390	2.8%	18.7%	.138	.297	.260	.282	.398	.291
Tommy La Stella	378	7.7%	12.2%	.136	.301	.275	.340	.411	.331
Dan Uggla	560	12.1%	28.4%	.189	.271	.218	.321	.407	.320
Chris Johnson	556	5.2%	23.0%	.148	.338	.275	.315	.423	.319
Tyler Pastornicky	446	5.6%	14.8%	.095	.302	.264	.308	.359	.290
Gerald Laird	158	7.6%	16.5%	.113	.289	.248	.314	.362	.292
Todd Cunningham	502	5.8%	15.5%	.079	.292	.248	.304	.327	.281
Elmer Reyes	485	2.9%	20.8%	.101	.295	.239	.269	.339	.265
Elliot Johnson	299	6.4%	24.1%	.110	.303	.234	.286	.344	.277
Alden Carrithers	350	8.6%	12.6%	.058	.286	.249	.318	.307	.282
Tyler Greene	383	6.3%	28.7%	.131	.308	.228	.286	.359	.285
Ramiro Pena	241	6.2%	19.1%	.099	.287	.239	.289	.338	.275
Blake DeWitt	158	7.0%	17.1%	.118	.276	.236	.293	.354	.282
Paul Janish	296	6.8%	17.9%	.078	.265	.220	.282	.299	.260
Christian Marrero	471	10.0%	21.0%	.135	.270	.224	.305	.358	.294
Jordan Schafer	381	8.9%	25.7%	.091	.290	.215	.288	.307	.266
Stefan Gartrell	441	6.6%	32.0%	.148	.306	.224	.282	.372	.289
Ernesto Mejia	561	6.1%	33.9%	.184	.310	.226	.280	.410	.300
Joey Terdoslavich	493	6.1%	24.7%	.160	.307	.248	.294	.409	.304
Reed Johnson	183	4.4%	23.0%	.107	.306	.238	.297	.345	.285
Jose Constanza	456	5.7%	14.7%	.047	.306	.260	.304	.307	.268
Edward Salcedo	540	5.6%	28.1%	.137	.301	.230	.275	.366	.278
Phil Gosselin	516	5.0%	20.2%	.082	.289	.234	.279	.316	.262
Steven Lerud	213	8.0%	33.3%	.068	.288	.189	.265	.258	.234
William Beckwith	342	7.0%	31.0%	.155	.292	.220	.287	.375	.289
Greg Golson	409	4.4%	28.4%	.113	.304	.223	.267	.336	.268
Jose Martinez	512	4.9%	18.9%	.088	.301	.250	.289	.338	.275

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Andrelton Simmons	601	4.5	93	16	3.8	Zoilo Versalles
Jason Heyward	538	5.5	113	11	3.4	Sid Bream
Freddie Freeman	655	6.6	128	1	3.2	Kent Hrbek
Justin Upton	655	5.7	115	-1	2.7	Derrek Lee
Evan Gattis	405	5.0	107	-6	1.9	Dave Valle
B.J. Upton	551	4.6	94	0	1.9	Ruben Rivera
Christian Bethancourt	390	4.0	84	5	1.7	Humberto Cota
Tommy La Stella	378	5.3	104	-2	1.6	Ken Boswell
Dan Uggla	560	4.5	98	-8	1.2	Morgan Ensberg
Chris Johnson	556	5.0	100	-9	1.2	Jim Davenport
Tyler Pastornicky	446	4.1	82	-1	0.6	Martin Prado
Gerald Laird	158	4.0	84	0	0.6	Rick Cerone
Todd Cunningham	502	3.6	73	1	0.5	Jesus Tavarez
Elmer Reyes	485	3.2	65	3	0.4	Greg Porter
Elliot Johnson	299	3.7	71	1	0.3	Kevin Davis
Alden Carrithers	350	3.6	72	-3	0.3	Joe Espada
Tyler Greene	383	3.8	75	-2	0.2	Nick Green
Ramiro Pena	241	3.4	71	1	0.1	Brian Hitchcox
Blake DeWitt	158	3.7	76	-1	0.1	Alan Lewis
Paul Janish	296	2.9	59	3	0.0	Chris Petersen
Christian Marrero	471	3.8	81	4	-0.1	D.J. Boston
Jordan Schafer	381	3.3	63	-1	-0.2	Jeff Duncan
Stefan Gartrell	441	3.7	77	-1	-0.3	John Nelson
Ernesto Mejia	561	4.0	86	-5	-0.3	Chris Cron
Joey Terdoslavich	493	4.2	90	-6	-0.3	Felix Jose
Reed Johnson	183	3.6	75	-2	-0.4	Willie McGee
Jose Constanza	456	3.4	68	5	-0.4	Jason Tyner
Edward Salcedo	540	3.3	73	-5	-0.4	Bobby Smith
Phil Gosselin	516	3.2	63	-1	-0.5	Frank Martinez
Steven Lerud	213	2.2	44	-2	-0.5	Tom Nieto
William Beckwith	342	3.6	79	-2	-0.8	Danny Lewis
Greg Golson	409	3.3	64	6	-0.9	Manny Jose
Jose Martinez	512	3.4	71	0	-0.9	Simon Rosario

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Kris Medlen	R	28	30	30	190.3	150	43	17	182	75	70
Mike Minor	L	26	31	31	190.3	167	48	21	173	77	72
Julio Teheran	R	23	31	30	180.7	155	48	17	170	73	68
Craig Kimbrel	R	26	70	0	69.0	111	21	4	41	12	11
Alex Wood	L	23	34	19	112.0	98	38	7	103	44	41
Paul Maholm	L	32	24	24	147.3	101	42	15	148	68	64
Brandon Beachy	R	27	18	18	95.7	91	36	12	85	43	40
Aaron Northcraft	R	24	25	25	130.7	93	64	12	133	68	64
J.R. Graham	R	24	17	17	85.0	50	29	7	88	42	39
Cody Martin	R	24	26	21	116.7	95	61	13	114	61	57
Jordan Walden	R	26	56	0	52.3	62	19	4	42	18	17
Freddy Garcia	R	37	24	19	117.7	80	37	17	121	63	59
Jonny Venters	L	29	57	0	55.7	58	26	4	47	21	20
David Carpenter	R	28	61	0	70.0	69	24	7	62	29	27
Eric O’Flaherty	L	29	46		41.3	35	13	3	37	15	14
Cristhian Martinez	R	32	29	1	46.3	37	12	4	44	19	18
Shae Simmons	R	23	39	0	43.3	47	24	3	35	17	16
Luis Avilan	L	24	76	0	64.7	47	26	6	59	28	26
Cory Gearrin	R	28	49	0	53.7	50	25	3	48	22	21
Anthony Varvaro	R	29	54	0	68.0	55	34	5	62	30	28
Luis Ayala	R	36	51	0	52.7	38	17	4	52	22	21
Scott Downs	L	38	55	0	39.0	32	16	3	36	16	15
Yohan Flande	L	28	29	20	126.7	73	58	13	137	72	67
Kameron Loe	R	32	55	5	78.7	48	23	9	83	41	38
Pat Egan	R	29	45	0	64.7	37	23	5	68	32	30
Sean Gilmartin	L	24	22	22	114.3	66	45	16	127	68	64
Ryne Harper	R	25	38	0	54.3	46	22	7	54	28	26
Juan Jaime	R	26	40	0	45.7	51	36	5	38	24	22
Carlos Perez	L	22	28	0	47.0	43	29	5	44	25	23
David Hale	R	26	25	20	113.3	70	55	15	123	68	64
Omar Poveda	R	26	25	24	137.7	87	70	18	147	83	78
Joe Bisenius	R	31	16	14	77.3	50	46	10	82	48	45
Dusty Hughes	L	32	33	0	39.3	30	26	4	39	22	21
Wirfin Obispo	R	29	54	0	55.3	47	39	5	52	31	29
Mark Lamm	R	26	45	0	55.3	39	33	5	56	31	29
Joe Beimel	L	37	31	0	29.3	20	14	4	31	18	17
Juan Cedeno	L	30	48	0	55.7	32	34	5	58	32	30
Ryan Buchter	L	27	50	0	54.3	60	54	6	47	32	30
Luis Vasquez	R	28	28	0	35.7	27	35	3	35	24	22
Andrew Russell	R	30	49	0	59.3	36	39	6	62	36	34

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Kris Medlen	190.3	796	18.9%	5.4%	.284	3.31	3.30	88	87
Mike Minor	190.3	792	21.0%	6.1%	.274	3.40	3.42	90	91
Julio Teheran	180.7	760	20.3%	6.4%	.288	3.39	3.45	90	91
Craig Kimbrel	69.0	269	41.2%	7.9%	.278	1.43	1.57	38	42
Alex Wood	112.0	477	20.6%	8.0%	.291	3.29	3.19	87	85
Paul Maholm	147.3	632	15.9%	6.7%	.285	3.91	3.94	104	104
Brandon Beachy	95.7	408	22.4%	8.8%	.275	3.76	3.75	100	100
Aaron Northcraft	130.7	588	15.8%	10.8%	.294	4.41	4.36	117	116
J.R. Graham	85.0	372	13.4%	7.7%	.288	4.13	4.09	109	108
Cody Martin	116.7	525	18.2%	11.5%	.291	4.40	4.48	117	119
Jordan Walden	52.3	218	28.5%	8.7%	.287	2.92	2.63	78	70
Freddy Garcia	117.7	511	15.7%	7.2%	.279	4.51	4.47	120	119
Jonny Venters	55.7	240	24.2%	10.8%	.290	3.23	3.24	86	86
David Carpenter	70.0	296	23.3%	8.2%	.287	3.47	3.33	92	88
Eric O’Flaherty	41.3	173	19.9%	7.4%	.274	3.05	3.09	81	82
Cristhian Martinez	46.3	195	19.1%	6.1%	.284	3.50	3.26	93	86
Shae Simmons	43.3	189	24.7%	12.7%	.289	3.32	3.52	88	93
Luis Avilan	64.7	279	16.7%	9.4%	.271	3.62	3.99	96	106
Cory Gearrin	53.7	234	21.4%	10.8%	.294	3.52	3.52	93	93
Anthony Varvaro	68.0	300	18.3%	11.2%	.280	3.71	3.79	98	100
Luis Ayala	52.7	226	16.7%	7.5%	.288	3.59	3.57	95	95
Scott Downs	39.0	169	19.1%	9.4%	.287	3.46	3.33	92	88
Yohan Flande	126.7	575	12.6%	10.1%	.292	4.76	4.73	126	125
Kameron Loe	78.7	342	14.0%	6.8%	.286	4.35	4.11	115	109
Pat Egan	64.7	285	12.9%	8.1%	.289	4.18	4.07	111	108
Sean Gilmartin	114.3	514	12.8%	8.7%	.291	5.04	5.00	134	133
Ryne Harper	54.3	239	19.1%	9.4%	.292	4.31	4.35	114	115
Juan Jaime	45.7	211	24.0%	17.0%	.289	4.34	4.45	115	118
Carlos Perez	47.0	213	20.2%	13.5%	.291	4.40	4.63	117	123
David Hale	113.3	518	13.5%	10.7%	.291	5.08	5.07	135	134
Omar Poveda	137.7	630	13.9%	11.1%	.289	5.10	5.10	135	135
Joe Bisenius	77.3	360	13.9%	12.9%	.289	5.24	5.27	139	140
Dusty Hughes	39.3	183	16.2%	14.3%	.293	4.81	4.75	127	126
Wirfin Obispo	55.3	257	18.2%	15.2%	.288	4.72	4.84	125	128
Mark Lamm	55.3	255	15.4%	13.0%	.292	4.72	4.65	125	123
Joe Beimel	29.3	133	15.1%	10.4%	.284	5.22	4.99	138	132
Juan Cedeno	55.7	259	12.5%	13.2%	.288	4.85	4.95	129	131
Ryan Buchter	54.3	263	22.9%	20.3%	.291	4.97	5.26	132	139
Luis Vasquez	35.7	177	15.1%	19.7%	.290	5.55	5.48	147	145
Andrew Russell	59.3	279	12.9%	14.0%	.290	5.16	5.19	137	138

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Kris Medlen	190.3	7.10	2.02	0.81	119	3.9	Donne Wall
Mike Minor	190.3	7.88	2.29	1.01	115	3.7	Eric Milton
Julio Teheran	180.7	7.70	2.41	0.87	116	3.5	Bryan Rekar
Craig Kimbrel	69.0	14.45	2.77	0.58	274	2.3	Francisco Rodriguez
Alex Wood	112.0	7.91	3.08	0.58	119	2.2	Dave LaPoint
Paul Maholm	147.3	6.15	2.59	0.94	100	2.0	Mark Hendrickson
Brandon Beachy	95.7	8.57	3.37	1.08	104	1.4	Kevin Foster
Aaron Northcraft	130.7	6.42	4.38	0.81	89	1.0	Jim Acker
J.R. Graham	85.0	5.28	3.04	0.78	95	0.9	Kirk McDonald
Cody Martin	116.7	7.36	4.67	0.98	89	0.8	Ken Hill
Jordan Walden	52.3	10.68	3.26	0.73	134	0.8	Rich Garces
Freddy Garcia	117.7	6.13	2.80	1.30	87	0.7	Frank Castillo
Jonny Venters	55.7	9.39	4.20	0.66	121	0.6	Armando Almanza
David Carpenter	70.0	8.90	3.13	0.87	113	0.6	Colter Bean
Eric O’Flaherty	41.3	7.53	2.78	0.70	129	0.6	Bobby Seay
Cristhian Martinez	46.3	7.24	2.30	0.83	112	0.5	Mike Schooler
Shae Simmons	43.3	9.72	4.99	0.58	118	0.4	Brad Voyles
Luis Avilan	64.7	6.48	3.66	0.79	108	0.4	Mike Bell
Cory Gearrin	53.7	8.39	4.25	0.57	111	0.4	Gabriel Dehoyos
Anthony Varvaro	68.0	7.25	4.44	0.69	106	0.4	Ruddy Lugo
Luis Ayala	52.7	6.45	2.90	0.70	109	0.4	Mike Maddux
Scott Downs	39.0	7.45	3.65	0.60	113	0.3	Brian Shouse
Yohan Flande	126.7	5.15	4.13	0.94	82	0.3	Brad Weis
Kameron Loe	78.7	5.48	2.65	1.02	90	0.1	Danny Graves
Pat Egan	64.7	5.09	3.19	0.74	94	0.0	Jim Todd
Sean Gilmartin	114.3	5.17	3.52	1.26	78	0.0	Chris Cumberland
Ryne Harper	54.3	7.56	3.70	1.15	91	-0.1	Dan Kite
Juan Jaime	45.7	10.01	7.07	0.89	91	-0.1	Rafael Pimentel
Carlos Perez	47.0	8.27	5.51	0.97	89	-0.1	Tim Drummond
David Hale	113.3	5.57	4.40	1.19	77	-0.1	Mark Woodyard
Omar Poveda	137.7	5.72	4.59	1.21	77	-0.2	Mark Rothey
Joe Bisenius	77.3	5.84	5.40	1.14	75	-0.2	Robert Ellis
Dusty Hughes	39.3	6.81	5.99	0.85	82	-0.3	Pedro Borbon
Wirfin Obispo	55.3	7.61	6.34	0.89	83	-0.4	Jake Robbins
Mark Lamm	55.3	6.39	5.41	0.86	83	-0.4	Mark Zamarripa
Joe Beimel	29.3	6.15	4.25	1.37	75	-0.4	Dave Righetti
Juan Cedeno	55.7	5.23	5.52	0.83	81	-0.5	Mark Watson
Ryan Buchter	54.3	9.99	8.87	1.04	79	-0.5	Ricky Pickett
Luis Vasquez	35.7	6.73	8.78	0.81	71	-0.6	Newt Kimball
Andrew Russell	59.3	5.48	5.93	0.94	76	-0.7	Marty McLeary

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.