2014 ZiPS Projections – Cincinnati Reds

After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Cincinnati Reds. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Cleveland / Detroit / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Minnesota / New York AL / Philadelphia / San Diego / Seattle / St. Louis / Tampa Bay.

Batters
It’s probably not incorrect to say that two main ways in which baseball players can provide value, broadly speaking, is by means of wins and also by means of the spectacle they’re capable of creating. Very fast Billy Hamilton has seemed — to the present author, at least — has seemed a candidate to succeed more by the latter standard than the former. ZiPS appears to suggest, however — in 2014, at least — that Hamilton is capable of producing on both accounts.

Of note, in particular, with regard to Hamilton’s projection is the BABIP (.332) part of it. On Cincinnati, for example, only Joey Votto has a higher projected one of them (.334) — and Joey Votto has produced five consecutive seasons now of BABIPs of .349 or greater. Everything else being equal, every 10 points of BABIP is worth about 0.3 wins. Using that rough estimate, here’s a table of what Hamilton’s WAR might be given an array of possible different BABIP outcomes:

BABIP	zWAR
.350	3.1
.340	2.8
.330	2.5
.320	2.2
.310	1.9
.300	1.6

The relatively optimistic WAR projection, one observes, is tied pretty closely to the relatively optimistic BABIP projection.

Pitchers
This is the 16th club considered in the ongoing release of Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, and very few of those clubs — two, maybe three — have featured an entire rotation of average to above-average starters. Cincinnati is one of them, now, though. Theoretically the weakest of the group, Mike Leake is still projected to record 180 innings of league-average run prevention. Young left-hander Tony Cingrani, meanwhile, who threw 100 innings last season, is projected to prevent runs even harder than that.

In the bullpen, one finds a very concise cautionary tale on paying for relief help. Jonathan Broxton, signed for three years and $21 million before the 2013 season, is projected by ZiPS to be outperformed — both overall and on a rate basis — by Manny Parra, who was signed that same offseason for just $1 million. Nor is ZiPS even explicitly aware of Broxton’s season-ending elbow injury — just that he didn’t pitch a full complement of innings.

Bench/Prospects
Absent from the depth-chart image below, but certainly a candidate to receive more than 200 plate appearances for a fifth consecutive season is Chris Heisey. According to ZiPS, there’s a non-negligible chance that he’s just a better option overall than Ryan Ludwick in left field (as he was in 2013, for example). No other particularly major-league-ready outfield options exist within the organization, really. Among pitching prospects, young right-hander Robert Stephenson receives the most impressive projection — but not so’s to suggest that he’s ready for the majors, yet.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Reds, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Joey Votto	L	30	1B	627	84	147	31	2	25	81	7	4
Jay Bruce	L	27	RF	656	87	148	33	3	32	111	8	4
Brandon Phillips	R	33	2B	634	80	156	27	2	16	87	9	5
Billy Hamilton	B	23	CF	605	73	147	20	8	6	48	68	15
Todd Frazier	R	28	3B	560	64	122	28	4	21	78	9	4
Zack Cozart	R	28	SS	596	75	140	31	4	13	54	5	1
Devin Mesoraco	R	26	C	390	40	89	19	1	13	52	1	2
Tucker Barnhart	B	23	C	407	38	92	18	2	5	37	1	1
Chris Heisey	R	29	LF	314	38	72	13	2	11	35	4	1
Corky Miller	R	38	C	222	20	42	10	0	5	26	0	0
Neftali Soto	R	25	3B	536	57	120	22	1	20	68	2	1
Jack Hannahan	L	34	3B	260	24	53	10	1	5	30	1	1
Ryan LaMarre	R	25	CF	536	52	115	17	3	7	40	24	12
Brayan Pena	B	32	C	226	17	56	10	0	4	25	0	1
Ryan Ludwick	R	35	LF	354	36	78	16	0	13	52	0	1
Mike Wilson	R	31	LF	316	41	65	13	1	11	40	3	3
Kris Negron	R	28	SS	424	41	80	14	3	8	35	12	3
Henry A. Rodriguez	B	24	2B	550	51	137	21	0	8	49	12	6
Mike Costanzo	L	30	3B	446	45	85	18	2	13	50	2	2
David Vidal	R	24	3B	495	48	99	21	1	11	48	1	1
Ruben Gotay	B	31	3B	491	49	100	16	1	9	44	8	4
Argenis Diaz	R	27	SS	459	37	97	17	2	1	29	5	4
Ray Chang	R	30	2B	334	30	75	12	0	3	27	1	2
Donald Lutz	L	25	LF	443	45	96	17	4	13	53	6	3
Jason Bourgeois	R	32	LF	358	39	85	10	3	2	28	17	7
Corey Wimberly	B	30	2B	271	29	61	8	2	1	19	10	6
Skip Schumaker	L	34	2B	362	34	82	14	1	3	33	2	2
Brandon Short	R	25	RF	374	37	78	14	3	7	32	6	5
Joe Mather	R	31	1B	239	21	47	10	1	5	21	3	2
Max Ramirez	R	29	1B	423	42	91	14	0	11	49	0	0
Felix Perez	L	29	LF	443	41	99	18	2	6	40	5	4
Derrick Robinson	B	26	LF	440	40	89	11	3	1	20	20	9
Juan Duran	R	22	RF	478	47	96	13	2	12	47	5	7

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Joey Votto	627	17.5%	19.6%	.217	.334	.289	.416	.506	.386
Jay Bruce	656	9.9%	26.5%	.231	.304	.254	.329	.485	.341
Brandon Phillips	634	5.7%	13.1%	.136	.287	.269	.317	.405	.311
Billy Hamilton	605	7.4%	20.8%	.098	.332	.264	.319	.362	.313
Todd Frazier	560	7.9%	23.9%	.196	.288	.243	.313	.439	.327
Zack Cozart	596	4.7%	17.6%	.141	.289	.254	.290	.395	.296
Devin Mesoraco	390	7.9%	19.2%	.170	.283	.251	.313	.421	.314
Tucker Barnhart	407	7.6%	19.7%	.101	.304	.249	.309	.350	.292
Chris Heisey	314	4.8%	22.9%	.174	.295	.250	.299	.424	.312
Corky Miller	222	10.4%	18.9%	.130	.252	.219	.309	.349	.291
Neftali Soto	536	4.7%	26.5%	.167	.291	.238	.280	.405	.299
Jack Hannahan	260	9.6%	22.7%	.117	.286	.229	.309	.346	.290
Ryan LaMarre	536	6.3%	25.6%	.090	.312	.236	.296	.326	.279
Brayan Pena	226	3.5%	11.1%	.104	.278	.264	.289	.368	.284
Ryan Ludwick	354	7.6%	22.3%	.172	.281	.244	.306	.416	.311
Mike Wilson	316	7.3%	28.5%	.166	.286	.226	.288	.392	.298
Kris Negron	424	5.0%	28.3%	.114	.276	.207	.261	.321	.259
Henry A. Rodriguez	550	4.5%	16.7%	.087	.306	.264	.301	.351	.288
Mike Costanzo	446	8.3%	32.7%	.151	.291	.211	.279	.362	.281
David Vidal	495	5.9%	30.1%	.123	.294	.217	.268	.340	.267
Ruben Gotay	491	9.4%	22.8%	.103	.283	.227	.300	.330	.282
Argenis Diaz	459	5.9%	20.9%	.056	.291	.228	.275	.284	.249
Ray Chang	334	5.1%	16.8%	.068	.285	.242	.286	.310	.262
Donald Lutz	443	4.7%	29.8%	.154	.305	.231	.275	.385	.287
Jason Bourgeois	358	5.3%	10.9%	.066	.283	.256	.297	.322	.275
Corey Wimberly	271	4.4%	12.5%	.060	.278	.245	.288	.305	.261
Skip Schumaker	362	7.5%	15.5%	.076	.292	.250	.311	.326	.283
Brandon Short	374	5.1%	24.9%	.120	.290	.229	.278	.349	.273
Joe Mather	239	6.3%	25.5%	.122	.268	.214	.261	.336	.259
Max Ramirez	423	6.6%	23.2%	.122	.283	.236	.287	.358	.284
Felix Perez	443	3.6%	20.3%	.096	.288	.237	.274	.333	.267
Derrick Robinson	440	7.0%	23.0%	.050	.295	.224	.280	.274	.247
Juan Duran	478	6.1%	37.0%	.119	.327	.217	.266	.336	.264

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Joey Votto	627	8.0	149	3	4.8	Todd Helton
Jay Bruce	656	5.8	117	6	3.3	Bruce Campbell
Brandon Phillips	634	4.7	94	5	2.5	Frank Bolling
Billy Hamilton	605	5.0	84	4	2.5	Milt Cuyler
Todd Frazier	560	4.9	101	1	2.4	Ed Whited
Zack Cozart	596	4.2	84	4	2.0	Hector Luna
Devin Mesoraco	390	4.7	97	0	2.0	Hector Villanueva
Tucker Barnhart	407	3.9	78	5	1.8	Dave Van Gorder
Chris Heisey	314	4.6	93	2	0.7	Marlin McPhail
Corky Miller	222	3.7	78	-2	0.5	Rick Ferrell
Neftali Soto	536	4.0	83	-5	0.4	Eric Hardgrave
Jack Hannahan	260	3.7	77	1	0.4	Charlie Neal
Ryan LaMarre	536	3.4	69	2	0.3	Vernon Thomas
Brayan Pena	226	3.8	77	-3	0.2	Steven Norris
Ryan Ludwick	354	4.5	93	-3	0.1	Eddie Williams
Mike Wilson	316	3.8	82	0	0.0	Darrell Whitmore
Kris Negron	424	3.0	57	1	-0.1	Erick Monzon
Henry A. Rodriguez	550	3.9	76	-5	-0.1	Billy Ripken
Mike Costanzo	446	3.4	72	-3	-0.1	Steve Phillips
David Vidal	495	3.1	64	2	-0.1	Glenn Williams
Ruben Gotay	491	3.5	71	-4	-0.2	Dave Rohde
Argenis Diaz	459	2.7	52	1	-0.5	Gary Green
Ray Chang	334	3.1	62	-1	-0.5	Gary Green
Donald Lutz	443	3.7	77	-2	-0.6	Mike Stellern
Jason Bourgeois	358	3.6	68	0	-0.7	Jim Buccheri
Corey Wimberly	271	3.1	61	-4	-0.7	Rondin Johnson
Skip Schumaker	362	3.6	73	-9	-0.7	Ron Oester
Brandon Short	374	3.3	69	-2	-1.0	Jonathan Johnson
Joe Mather	239	3.0	60	-1	-1.1	Tom Nevers
Max Ramirez	423	3.6	73	-3	-1.2	Juan Richardson
Felix Perez	443	3.2	64	0	-1.2	Jim St. Laurent
Derrick Robinson	440	2.7	51	4	-1.2	Tony Triplett
Juan Duran	478	2.9	62	1	-1.3	Alan Cockrell

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Mat Latos	R	26	32	32	208.3	186	57	19	187	81	76
Homer Bailey	R	28	30	30	192.0	163	46	21	179	81	76
Johnny Cueto	R	28	23	23	136.3	102	35	11	125	51	48
Tony Cingrani	L	24	30	25	138.0	153	59	17	113	57	53
Mike Leake	R	26	30	29	179.3	119	41	23	183	86	80
Aroldis Chapman	L	26	69	0	65.3	107	29	6	39	17	16
Bronson Arroyo	R	37	26	26	166.0	100	31	27	173	86	80
Sam LeCure	R	30	55	0	60.0	63	21	6	50	22	21
J.J. Hoover	R	26	68	0	66.3	72	27	7	53	26	24
Sean Marshall	L	31	47	0	40.3	44	11	3	33	13	12
Robert Stephenson	R	21	22	22	100.7	90	42	16	97	55	51
Alfredo Simon	R	33	51	0	71.7	55	22	7	67	30	28
Carlos Contreras	R	23	26	26	124.0	91	70	16	122	70	65
Greg Reynolds	R	28	27	23	152.3	70	43	20	170	87	81
Manny Parra	L	31	47	0	43.7	45	17	4	38	18	17
Jon Moscot	R	22	23	23	104.7	78	41	17	107	60	56
Jonathan Broxton	R	30	38	0	37.0	31	13	4	34	16	15
Nick Masset	R	32	28	0	27.7	23	12	3	27	13	12
Logan Ondrusek	R	29	63	0	61.0	50	25	8	58	30	28
David Holmberg	L	22	26	26	147.0	88	56	24	160	90	84
Mark Prior	R	33	11	0	13.3	12	10	2	13	9	8
Nick McBride	R	23	25	13	74.7	35	38	8	83	46	43
Jose Arredondo	R	30	53	0	55.3	52	39	7	50	30	28
Zach Duke	L	31	37	10	89.0	50	28	13	100	54	50
Lee Hyde	L	29	50	0	43.7	32	25	5	43	25	23
Trevor Bell	R	27	26	6	53.3	34	22	9	58	33	31
Kanekoa Texeira	R	28	26	2	37.7	21	18	5	41	24	22
Chad Rogers	R	24	25	25	124.3	75	49	22	136	79	74
Justin Freeman	R	27	34	0	37.7	29	15	7	40	24	22
Tim Crabbe	R	26	27	24	130.3	88	68	21	140	83	78
Jose Diaz	R	30	44	0	44.7	35	25	7	45	28	26
Curtis Partch	R	27	48	0	60.3	48	34	11	58	37	35
Nick Christiani	R	26	55	0	63.0	36	28	10	68	40	37
Kevin Whelan	R	30	40	0	40.7	40	30	8	40	29	27
Ryan Dennick	L	27	31	11	88.7	49	41	16	99	61	57
Loek van Mil	R	29	43	0	58.7	31	33	9	64	40	37
Pedro Beato	R	27	49	0	58.7	39	31	11	63	40	37
Ismael Guillon	L	22	23	22	94.3	85	85	19	94	71	66
Pedro Villarreal	R	26	29	22	121.7	72	40	27	142	87	81
Chad Reineke	R	32	24	21	118.7	61	46	27	142	88	82
Daniel Corcino	R	23	26	23	119.3	73	83	24	133	92	86

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Mat Latos	208.3	869	21.4%	6.6%	.280	3.28	3.12	85	81
Homer Bailey	192.0	801	20.3%	5.7%	.281	3.56	3.44	93	89
Johnny Cueto	136.3	569	17.9%	6.2%	.275	3.17	3.33	82	87
Tony Cingrani	138.0	586	26.1%	10.1%	.274	3.46	3.68	90	96
Mike Leake	179.3	762	15.6%	5.4%	.279	4.01	3.96	104	103
Aroldis Chapman	65.3	264	40.5%	11.0%	.278	2.20	2.29	57	59
Bronson Arroyo	166.0	702	14.2%	4.4%	.271	4.34	4.42	113	115
Sam LeCure	60.0	251	25.1%	8.4%	.277	3.15	3.20	82	83
J.J. Hoover	66.3	279	25.8%	9.7%	.269	3.26	3.28	85	85
Sean Marshall	40.3	165	26.7%	6.7%	.286	2.68	2.58	70	67
Robert Stephenson	100.7	441	20.4%	9.5%	.283	4.56	4.64	119	121
Alfredo Simon	71.7	304	18.1%	7.2%	.280	3.52	3.72	91	97
Carlos Contreras	124.0	564	16.1%	12.4%	.280	4.72	4.92	123	128
Greg Reynolds	152.3	670	10.4%	6.4%	.285	4.79	4.73	124	123
Manny Parra	43.7	186	24.2%	9.1%	.288	3.50	3.27	91	85
Jon Moscot	104.7	462	16.9%	8.9%	.281	4.82	4.81	125	125
Jonathan Broxton	37.0	158	19.6%	8.2%	.280	3.65	3.85	95	100
Nick Masset	27.7	122	18.8%	9.8%	.289	3.90	3.95	101	103
Logan Ondrusek	61.0	266	18.8%	9.4%	.276	4.13	4.15	107	108
David Holmberg	147.0	657	13.4%	8.5%	.284	5.14	5.15	134	134
Mark Prior	13.3	63	19.1%	15.9%	.290	5.40	5.31	140	138
Nick McBride	74.7	345	10.1%	11.0%	.289	5.18	5.04	135	131
Jose Arredondo	55.3	255	20.4%	15.3%	.279	4.55	4.83	118	126
Zach Duke	89.0	395	12.7%	7.1%	.290	5.06	4.72	131	123
Lee Hyde	43.7	199	16.1%	12.6%	.281	4.74	4.71	123	122
Trevor Bell	53.3	240	14.2%	9.2%	.285	5.23	5.23	136	136
Kanekoa Texeira	37.7	172	12.2%	10.5%	.288	5.26	5.10	137	133
Chad Rogers	124.3	558	13.4%	8.8%	.282	5.36	5.32	139	138
Justin Freeman	37.7	168	17.3%	8.9%	.287	5.26	5.05	137	131
Tim Crabbe	130.3	599	14.7%	11.4%	.289	5.39	5.42	140	141
Jose Diaz	44.7	204	17.1%	12.2%	.283	5.24	5.11	136	133
Curtis Partch	60.3	273	17.6%	12.5%	.272	5.22	5.57	136	145
Nick Christiani	63.0	285	12.6%	9.8%	.282	5.29	5.20	137	135
Kevin Whelan	40.7	192	20.8%	15.6%	.288	5.98	5.92	155	154
Ryan Dennick	88.7	406	12.1%	10.1%	.282	5.79	5.73	150	149
Loek van Mil	58.7	273	11.4%	12.1%	.280	5.68	5.57	148	145
Pedro Beato	58.7	270	14.4%	11.5%	.281	5.68	5.69	148	148
Ismael Guillon	94.3	462	18.4%	18.4%	.282	6.30	6.64	164	173
Pedro Villarreal	121.7	547	13.2%	7.3%	.287	5.99	5.78	156	150
Chad Reineke	118.7	544	11.2%	8.5%	.286	6.22	6.17	162	160
Daniel Corcino	119.3	574	12.7%	14.5%	.283	6.49	6.60	169	172

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Mat Latos	208.3	8.04	2.46	0.82	121	4.5	Jason Schmidt
Homer Bailey	192.0	7.64	2.16	0.98	111	3.5	Jeff Weaver
Johnny Cueto	136.3	6.74	2.31	0.73	125	3.1	Charles Nagy
Tony Cingrani	138.0	9.98	3.85	1.11	115	2.6	Sebern Wright
Mike Leake	179.3	5.97	2.06	1.15	99	2.3	Kyle Lohse
Aroldis Chapman	65.3	14.75	4.00	0.83	180	1.6	John Rocker
Bronson Arroyo	166.0	5.42	1.68	1.46	91	1.5	Dick Donovan
Sam LeCure	60.0	9.45	3.15	0.90	126	0.8	Jason Frasor
J.J. Hoover	66.3	9.77	3.67	0.95	122	0.8	Bryce Florie
Sean Marshall	40.3	9.83	2.46	0.67	148	0.7	Chuck McElroy
Robert Stephenson	100.7	8.04	3.75	1.43	87	0.6	Roger Salkeld
Alfredo Simon	71.7	6.90	2.76	0.88	113	0.6	Julian Tavarez
Carlos Contreras	124.0	6.60	5.08	1.16	84	0.5	Derrick Lewis
Greg Reynolds	152.3	4.14	2.54	1.18	83	0.5	Mike Thompson
Manny Parra	43.7	9.27	3.50	0.82	113	0.4	Mike Munoz
Jon Moscot	104.7	6.70	3.52	1.46	82	0.3	Joel Moore
Jonathan Broxton	37.0	7.54	3.16	0.97	109	0.3	Chad Paronto
Nick Masset	27.7	7.47	3.90	0.97	102	0.1	Jason Childers
Logan Ondrusek	61.0	7.38	3.69	1.18	96	0.1	Jason Bullard
David Holmberg	147.0	5.39	3.43	1.47	77	-0.1	Larry Casian
Mark Prior	13.3	8.12	6.77	1.35	73	-0.2	Archie Corbin
Nick McBride	74.7	4.22	4.58	0.96	77	-0.2	Rich Dorman
Jose Arredondo	55.3	8.46	6.35	1.14	87	-0.2	Archie Corbin
Zach Duke	89.0	5.06	2.83	1.31	78	-0.3	Mark Thurmond
Lee Hyde	43.7	6.59	5.15	1.03	84	-0.3	Mike Kinnunen
Trevor Bell	53.3	5.74	3.71	1.52	76	-0.3	Juan Done
Kanekoa Texeira	37.7	5.01	4.30	1.19	75	-0.3	Paul Giel
Chad Rogers	124.3	5.43	3.55	1.59	74	-0.4	Mark Mangum
Justin Freeman	37.7	6.92	3.58	1.67	75	-0.5	Blas Cedeno
Tim Crabbe	130.3	6.08	4.70	1.45	74	-0.5	Mark Rothey
Jose Diaz	44.7	7.05	5.03	1.41	76	-0.6	Bart Evans
Curtis Partch	60.3	7.16	5.07	1.64	76	-0.7	Darren Hall
Nick Christiani	63.0	5.14	4.00	1.43	75	-0.8	Matt Smith
Kevin Whelan	40.7	8.85	6.63	1.77	66	-0.9	Ryan Bukvich
Ryan Dennick	88.7	4.97	4.16	1.62	69	-1.0	Matt White
Loek van Mil	58.7	4.75	5.06	1.38	70	-1.0	Marty McLeary
Pedro Beato	58.7	5.98	4.75	1.69	70	-1.0	Bill Pulsipher
Ismael Guillon	94.3	8.11	8.11	1.81	63	-1.4	Kyle Bloom
Pedro Villarreal	121.7	5.32	2.96	2.00	66	-1.4	Greg Biercevicz
Chad Reineke	118.7	4.63	3.49	2.05	64	-1.7	R.A. Dickey
Daniel Corcino	119.3	5.51	6.26	1.81	61	-2.1	Joel Santo

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.