2014 ZiPS Projections – Colorado Rockies
After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Colorado Rockies. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.
Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Detroit / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Philadelphia / San Diego / Seattle / St. Louis / Tampa Bay.
Batters
Crafting a definitive depth chart for the current edition of the Rockies presents some difficulties. DJ LeMahieu might be the club’s starting second baseman, but also so might Josh Rutledge. Corey Dickerson and Drew Stubbs will probably split starts in left field, but Charlie Blackmon has a chance of making the opening-day roster, as well. Were manager Walt Weiss to rely on ZiPS exclusively, he’d probably choose just Stubbs in the former situation and Rutledge in the latter. The odds of him doing that are low and lowest, however.
Of note regarding Jordan Pacheco: as the attentive reader will note, Pacheco is projected on the tables below as a first baseman (in which capacity he recorded the majority of his starts in 2013) but as a catcher on the depth chart (in which capacity he’s likely to record the majority of his starts in 2014). As a first baseman, his projection is pretty miserable (-1.2 zWAR in 483 PAs), very probably owing to the large negative runs adjustment for that position. Which is to say, projected as a catcher (for which position he’d receive a large positive adjustment, provided his defense there isn’t atrocious), his forecasted value is likely quite a bit higher. Positive, even, maybe.
Pitchers
Some citizens of the internet suggested, in response to a tweet containing the depth-chart image below, that the projections for both Brett Anderson and Jorge de la Rosa were quite low. Indeed, this is true. Why they’re low, however, has less to do with the respective performances of those two left-handed pitchers on a per-inning basis, and more to do with the overall innings projections administered by ZiPS’ computer math. Anderson has averaged just 54 innings per season over the last three years; de la Rosa, 79 innings per season over that same interval. It is, of course, possible that both pitchers are entirely healthy. All ZiPS knows, though, is how pitchers with similar track records have performed at similar ages.
Also with regard to the rotation, the author should note that he’s published the pitchers on the depth chart below not in the order in which they’re likely to appear over the first five games of the season, but in order of projected WAR. Were that same depth chart to include pitchers expected not to make the opening-day roster, however, right-hander Eddie Butler’s name would appear there, too. His projected ZiPS WAR of 1.3 is fourth-highest among starters on the club.
Bench/Prospects
While it’s true that Josh Rutledge has a better projected WAR, per ZiPS, than DJ LeMahieu, it’s also the case that so does infielder Rosell Herrera. That’s likely neither here nor there for the 2014 edition of the Rockies, seeing as Herrera hasn’t recorded a plate appearances at a level higher than the Class-A Sally League, but it’s still good for the Rockies. Among field players more likely to make a contribution at the major-league level is Matt McBride (388 PA, 0.8 zWAR). Despite missing a bunch of the 2013 season to injury, McBride has shown some offensive acumen in the past and is a possible alternative to Jordan Pacheco as Wilin Rosario’s backup.
Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Rockies, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.
Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.
Batters, Counting Stats
Player | B | Age | PO | PA | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Troy Tulowitzki | R | 29 | SS | 529 | 69 | 139 | 27 | 2 | 25 | 84 | 5 | 2 |
Carlos Gonzalez | L | 28 | LF | 553 | 80 | 142 | 27 | 5 | 28 | 88 | 22 | 5 |
Nolan Arenado | R | 23 | 3B | 619 | 60 | 164 | 40 | 4 | 14 | 68 | 2 | 2 |
Wilin Rosario | R | 25 | C | 474 | 55 | 120 | 20 | 2 | 21 | 68 | 3 | 2 |
Josh Rutledge | R | 25 | 2B | 587 | 68 | 147 | 30 | 5 | 13 | 57 | 15 | 3 |
Rosell Herrera | B | 21 | SS | 552 | 59 | 142 | 22 | 2 | 12 | 56 | 17 | 9 |
Drew Stubbs | R | 29 | CF | 546 | 76 | 124 | 22 | 3 | 14 | 57 | 26 | 5 |
Charlie Culberson | R | 25 | SS | 578 | 67 | 146 | 30 | 5 | 14 | 70 | 14 | 7 |
DJ LeMahieu | R | 25 | 2B | 609 | 55 | 163 | 27 | 6 | 4 | 52 | 17 | 9 |
Justin Morneau | L | 33 | 1B | 484 | 55 | 122 | 27 | 1 | 16 | 76 | 0 | 0 |
Matt McBride | R | 29 | C | 388 | 42 | 98 | 24 | 3 | 13 | 52 | 1 | 1 |
Michael Cuddyer | R | 35 | RF | 503 | 63 | 133 | 28 | 3 | 19 | 75 | 8 | 3 |
Yorvit Torrealba | R | 35 | C | 253 | 19 | 61 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 1 | 1 |
Cristhian Adames | B | 22 | SS | 504 | 45 | 118 | 22 | 4 | 3 | 40 | 10 | 6 |
Corey Dickerson | L | 25 | LF | 556 | 62 | 137 | 31 | 10 | 18 | 66 | 8 | 8 |
Ryan Wheeler | L | 25 | 3B | 575 | 58 | 145 | 29 | 3 | 13 | 76 | 3 | 2 |
Angelys Nina | R | 25 | 2B | 517 | 47 | 131 | 21 | 4 | 7 | 49 | 14 | 9 |
Trevor Story | R | 21 | SS | 567 | 55 | 111 | 27 | 4 | 13 | 54 | 15 | 2 |
Brandon Barnes | R | 28 | CF | 516 | 59 | 117 | 27 | 3 | 11 | 61 | 11 | 8 |
Charlie Blackmon | L | 27 | RF | 497 | 54 | 122 | 27 | 5 | 10 | 51 | 13 | 4 |
Tom Murphy | R | 23 | C | 368 | 40 | 78 | 19 | 2 | 13 | 48 | 3 | 5 |
Todd Helton | L | 40 | 1B | 345 | 30 | 76 | 18 | 1 | 11 | 49 | 0 | 0 |
Tyler Colvin | L | 28 | CF | 409 | 47 | 89 | 17 | 7 | 15 | 54 | 5 | 2 |
Kent Matthes | R | 27 | RF | 408 | 40 | 91 | 23 | 3 | 15 | 55 | 8 | 3 |
Kyle Parker | R | 24 | LF | 538 | 54 | 126 | 20 | 3 | 16 | 62 | 3 | 4 |
Hernan Iribarren | L | 30 | 2B | 386 | 35 | 89 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 33 | 10 | 3 |
Will Swanner | R | 22 | C | 412 | 41 | 85 | 19 | 1 | 12 | 42 | 5 | 5 |
Rafael Ynoa | B | 26 | 2B | 553 | 58 | 131 | 24 | 3 | 5 | 50 | 15 | 11 |
Xavier Nady | R | 35 | 1B | 351 | 37 | 82 | 16 | 0 | 8 | 42 | 2 | 0 |
Jordan Pacheco | R | 28 | 1B | 483 | 41 | 120 | 25 | 2 | 5 | 50 | 4 | 2 |
Tim Wheeler | L | 26 | RF | 510 | 50 | 113 | 20 | 4 | 9 | 45 | 11 | 7 |
Ben Paulsen | L | 26 | 1B | 538 | 50 | 121 | 25 | 6 | 14 | 61 | 2 | 3 |
***
Batters, Rates and Averages
Player | PA | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP | BA | OBP | SLG | wOBA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Troy Tulowitzki | 529 | 9.8% | 14.7% | .226 | .308 | .296 | .369 | .522 | .379 |
Carlos Gonzalez | 553 | 9.0% | 23.0% | .244 | .330 | .286 | .353 | .530 | .377 |
Nolan Arenado | 619 | 4.8% | 12.9% | .156 | .306 | .284 | .319 | .440 | .326 |
Wilin Rosario | 474 | 4.0% | 24.5% | .193 | .312 | .265 | .295 | .458 | .325 |
Josh Rutledge | 587 | 4.9% | 19.4% | .145 | .321 | .271 | .317 | .416 | .322 |
Rosell Herrera | 552 | 6.7% | 21.2% | .122 | .341 | .280 | .330 | .402 | .321 |
Drew Stubbs | 546 | 8.6% | 26.0% | .143 | .327 | .253 | .321 | .396 | .320 |
Charlie Culberson | 578 | 3.3% | 20.8% | .150 | .315 | .265 | .293 | .415 | .307 |
DJ LeMahieu | 609 | 4.6% | 13.8% | .090 | .327 | .286 | .320 | .376 | .302 |
Justin Morneau | 484 | 8.1% | 15.1% | .177 | .302 | .280 | .343 | .457 | .344 |
Matt McBride | 388 | 3.9% | 13.9% | .188 | .280 | .268 | .296 | .456 | .324 |
Michael Cuddyer | 503 | 8.0% | 17.3% | .199 | .321 | .290 | .348 | .489 | .359 |
Yorvit Torrealba | 253 | 6.3% | 15.0% | .103 | .297 | .262 | .311 | .365 | .294 |
Cristhian Adames | 504 | 6.3% | 19.6% | .086 | .324 | .260 | .311 | .346 | .285 |
Corey Dickerson | 556 | 6.3% | 20.5% | .205 | .308 | .267 | .315 | .472 | .336 |
Ryan Wheeler | 575 | 5.4% | 21.4% | .138 | .326 | .271 | .311 | .409 | .313 |
Angelys Nina | 517 | 4.3% | 15.9% | .103 | .309 | .269 | .303 | .372 | .294 |
Trevor Story | 567 | 6.3% | 33.3% | .141 | .305 | .213 | .271 | .354 | .280 |
Brandon Barnes | 516 | 5.4% | 25.0% | .138 | .314 | .246 | .295 | .384 | .296 |
Charlie Blackmon | 497 | 5.8% | 16.9% | .147 | .306 | .266 | .316 | .413 | .319 |
Tom Murphy | 368 | 6.0% | 26.9% | .185 | .289 | .233 | .292 | .418 | .306 |
Todd Helton | 345 | 9.9% | 19.7% | .172 | .280 | .248 | .319 | .420 | .322 |
Tyler Colvin | 409 | 6.1% | 27.4% | .200 | .291 | .235 | .284 | .435 | .311 |
Kent Matthes | 408 | 4.4% | 27.2% | .193 | .295 | .238 | .278 | .431 | .308 |
Kyle Parker | 538 | 7.2% | 25.5% | .151 | .324 | .257 | .318 | .408 | .319 |
Hernan Iribarren | 386 | 6.0% | 16.6% | .077 | .297 | .252 | .298 | .329 | .277 |
Will Swanner | 412 | 7.0% | 33.3% | .152 | .316 | .225 | .284 | .377 | .290 |
Rafael Ynoa | 553 | 6.3% | 15.4% | .088 | .300 | .258 | .306 | .346 | .285 |
Xavier Nady | 351 | 5.1% | 19.9% | .122 | .295 | .252 | .296 | .374 | .295 |
Jordan Pacheco | 483 | 5.0% | 12.0% | .099 | .296 | .268 | .312 | .367 | .298 |
Tim Wheeler | 510 | 6.1% | 23.5% | .117 | .305 | .241 | .297 | .358 | .288 |
Ben Paulsen | 538 | 5.4% | 28.6% | .157 | .316 | .240 | .283 | .397 | .293 |
***
Batters, Assorted Other
***
Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player | T | Age | G | GS | IP | SO | BB | HR | H | R | ER |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jhoulys Chacin | R | 26 | 27 | 27 | 163.3 | 113 | 58 | 15 | 166 | 78 | 73 |
Tyler Chatwood | R | 24 | 29 | 27 | 142.0 | 91 | 55 | 11 | 153 | 73 | 68 |
Juan Nicasio | R | 27 | 24 | 24 | 125.0 | 99 | 42 | 14 | 133 | 66 | 62 |
Jorge de la Rosa | L | 33 | 18 | 18 | 93.0 | 64 | 34 | 10 | 100 | 50 | 47 |
Eddie Butler | R | 23 | 24 | 24 | 113.3 | 76 | 47 | 12 | 123 | 64 | 60 |
Rex Brothers | L | 26 | 75 | 0 | 70.7 | 88 | 35 | 6 | 59 | 28 | 26 |
Jordan Lyles | R | 23 | 31 | 30 | 165.0 | 103 | 50 | 20 | 193 | 102 | 95 |
Brett Anderson | L | 26 | 15 | 10 | 64.3 | 52 | 18 | 6 | 69 | 33 | 31 |
Adam Ottavino | R | 28 | 56 | 0 | 84.3 | 82 | 34 | 8 | 81 | 40 | 37 |
Chad Bettis | R | 25 | 27 | 22 | 121.3 | 90 | 43 | 18 | 137 | 75 | 70 |
Jeff Francis | L | 33 | 29 | 23 | 129.0 | 84 | 34 | 18 | 153 | 80 | 75 |
Matt Belisle | R | 34 | 68 | 0 | 68.3 | 56 | 15 | 6 | 72 | 32 | 30 |
Wilton Lopez | R | 30 | 70 | 0 | 69.3 | 48 | 15 | 7 | 76 | 34 | 32 |
Boone Logan | L | 29 | 67 | 0 | 44.0 | 51 | 16 | 5 | 40 | 20 | 19 |
Rafael Betancourt | R | 39 | 37 | 0 | 33.7 | 31 | 10 | 3 | 33 | 15 | 14 |
Collin McHugh | R | 27 | 27 | 24 | 131.0 | 85 | 47 | 17 | 155 | 85 | 79 |
Roy Oswalt | R | 36 | 17 | 14 | 77.7 | 54 | 22 | 10 | 95 | 49 | 46 |
LaTroy Hawkins | R | 41 | 56 | 0 | 52.7 | 35 | 11 | 6 | 59 | 27 | 25 |
Christian Friedrich | L | 26 | 15 | 15 | 74.7 | 52 | 28 | 11 | 86 | 48 | 45 |
Franklin Morales | L | 28 | 38 | 5 | 54.0 | 48 | 25 | 8 | 55 | 31 | 29 |
Jon Garland | R | 34 | 10 | 10 | 55.7 | 28 | 20 | 8 | 67 | 36 | 34 |
Josh Roenicke | R | 31 | 59 | 0 | 67.7 | 47 | 34 | 8 | 72 | 39 | 36 |
Mike McClendon | R | 29 | 44 | 0 | 65.0 | 38 | 32 | 5 | 73 | 37 | 35 |
Aaron Cook | R | 35 | 14 | 14 | 74.0 | 28 | 25 | 10 | 95 | 51 | 48 |
Rob Scahill | R | 27 | 59 | 0 | 80.0 | 60 | 33 | 11 | 87 | 47 | 44 |
Justin Berg | R | 30 | 15 | 2 | 27.3 | 12 | 15 | 4 | 34 | 19 | 18 |
Greg Burke | R | 31 | 56 | 0 | 63.7 | 45 | 27 | 7 | 72 | 39 | 36 |
Tyler Matzek | L | 23 | 26 | 26 | 123.7 | 87 | 85 | 16 | 141 | 87 | 81 |
Hisanori Takahashi | L | 39 | 39 | 0 | 44.0 | 36 | 19 | 7 | 49 | 28 | 26 |
Mitchell Boggs | R | 30 | 62 | 2 | 70.0 | 44 | 32 | 9 | 79 | 44 | 41 |
Roman Colon | R | 34 | 22 | 0 | 34.3 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 40 | 22 | 21 |
Tommy Kahnle | R | 24 | 42 | 0 | 54.7 | 53 | 40 | 7 | 54 | 34 | 32 |
Logan Kensing | R | 31 | 34 | 0 | 34.7 | 25 | 20 | 5 | 39 | 24 | 22 |
Bobby Cassevah | R | 28 | 32 | 0 | 37.0 | 19 | 19 | 5 | 43 | 26 | 24 |
Kraig Sitton | L | 25 | 50 | 0 | 61.0 | 35 | 25 | 8 | 72 | 40 | 37 |
Joe Gardner | R | 26 | 47 | 0 | 60.3 | 39 | 29 | 8 | 68 | 40 | 37 |
Manny Corpas | R | 31 | 55 | 0 | 75.3 | 47 | 29 | 12 | 86 | 48 | 45 |
Pedro Hernandez | L | 25 | 24 | 20 | 106.3 | 55 | 35 | 20 | 138 | 80 | 75 |
Armando Galarraga | R | 32 | 17 | 17 | 80.3 | 42 | 44 | 17 | 101 | 65 | 61 |
Brooks Brown | R | 29 | 29 | 13 | 86.0 | 44 | 46 | 17 | 110 | 70 | 65 |
Sean Gallagher | R | 28 | 22 | 21 | 105.7 | 57 | 72 | 21 | 133 | 90 | 84 |
***
Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player | IP | TBF | K% | BB% | BABIP | ERA | FIP | ERA- | FIP- |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jhoulys Chacin | 163.3 | 714 | 15.8% | 8.1% | .288 | 4.02 | 4.43 | 92 | 101 |
Tyler Chatwood | 142.0 | 634 | 14.4% | 8.7% | .301 | 4.31 | 4.43 | 98 | 101 |
Juan Nicasio | 125.0 | 550 | 18.0% | 7.6% | .304 | 4.46 | 4.40 | 102 | 100 |
Jorge de la Rosa | 93.0 | 413 | 15.5% | 8.2% | .298 | 4.55 | 4.64 | 104 | 106 |
Eddie Butler | 113.3 | 510 | 14.9% | 9.2% | .303 | 4.76 | 5.01 | 109 | 114 |
Rex Brothers | 70.7 | 306 | 28.7% | 11.4% | .301 | 3.31 | 3.49 | 76 | 80 |
Jordan Lyles | 165.0 | 738 | 14.0% | 6.8% | .312 | 5.18 | 4.90 | 118 | 112 |
Brett Anderson | 64.3 | 280 | 18.6% | 6.4% | .314 | 4.34 | 4.05 | 99 | 92 |
Adam Ottavino | 84.3 | 368 | 22.3% | 9.2% | .302 | 3.95 | 3.88 | 90 | 88 |
Chad Bettis | 121.3 | 544 | 16.5% | 7.9% | .308 | 5.19 | 5.18 | 118 | 118 |
Jeff Francis | 129.0 | 574 | 14.6% | 5.9% | .313 | 5.23 | 4.89 | 119 | 112 |
Matt Belisle | 68.3 | 292 | 19.2% | 5.1% | .310 | 3.95 | 3.64 | 90 | 83 |
Wilton Lopez | 69.3 | 299 | 16.1% | 5.0% | .304 | 4.15 | 4.05 | 95 | 93 |
Boone Logan | 44.0 | 188 | 27.1% | 8.5% | .307 | 3.89 | 3.63 | 89 | 83 |
Rafael Betancourt | 33.7 | 144 | 21.5% | 6.9% | .300 | 3.74 | 3.55 | 85 | 81 |
Collin McHugh | 131.0 | 595 | 14.3% | 7.9% | .315 | 5.43 | 5.15 | 124 | 117 |
Roy Oswalt | 77.7 | 350 | 15.4% | 6.3% | .326 | 5.33 | 4.77 | 122 | 109 |
LaTroy Hawkins | 52.7 | 228 | 15.3% | 4.8% | .303 | 4.27 | 4.30 | 97 | 98 |
Christian Friedrich | 74.7 | 338 | 15.4% | 8.3% | .309 | 5.42 | 5.33 | 124 | 122 |
Franklin Morales | 54.0 | 242 | 19.8% | 10.3% | .299 | 4.83 | 5.17 | 110 | 118 |
Jon Garland | 55.7 | 254 | 11.0% | 7.9% | .301 | 5.50 | 5.46 | 126 | 125 |
Josh Roenicke | 67.7 | 309 | 15.2% | 11.0% | .293 | 4.79 | 5.13 | 109 | 117 |
Mike McClendon | 65.0 | 300 | 12.7% | 10.7% | .309 | 4.85 | 4.97 | 111 | 113 |
Aaron Cook | 74.0 | 342 | 8.2% | 7.3% | .308 | 5.84 | 5.57 | 133 | 127 |
Rob Scahill | 80.0 | 360 | 16.7% | 9.2% | .304 | 4.95 | 5.23 | 113 | 119 |
Justin Berg | 27.3 | 131 | 9.2% | 11.5% | .306 | 5.93 | 6.41 | 135 | 146 |
Greg Burke | 63.7 | 290 | 15.5% | 9.3% | .312 | 5.09 | 4.90 | 116 | 112 |
Tyler Matzek | 123.7 | 597 | 14.6% | 14.2% | .312 | 5.89 | 6.07 | 134 | 139 |
Hisanori Takahashi | 44.0 | 200 | 18.0% | 9.5% | .309 | 5.32 | 5.32 | 121 | 121 |
Mitchell Boggs | 70.0 | 321 | 13.7% | 10.0% | .303 | 5.27 | 5.39 | 120 | 123 |
Roman Colon | 34.3 | 158 | 12.0% | 9.5% | .305 | 5.50 | 5.33 | 126 | 122 |
Tommy Kahnle | 54.7 | 258 | 20.5% | 15.5% | .303 | 5.27 | 5.49 | 120 | 125 |
Logan Kensing | 34.7 | 163 | 15.3% | 12.3% | .306 | 5.71 | 5.77 | 130 | 132 |
Bobby Cassevah | 37.0 | 173 | 11.0% | 11.0% | .297 | 5.84 | 5.87 | 133 | 134 |
Kraig Sitton | 61.0 | 280 | 12.5% | 8.9% | .308 | 5.46 | 5.50 | 125 | 126 |
Joe Gardner | 60.3 | 278 | 14.0% | 10.4% | .305 | 5.52 | 5.54 | 126 | 127 |
Manny Corpas | 75.3 | 341 | 13.8% | 8.5% | .299 | 5.38 | 5.58 | 123 | 127 |
Pedro Hernandez | 106.3 | 492 | 11.2% | 7.1% | .313 | 6.35 | 6.06 | 145 | 138 |
Armando Galarraga | 80.3 | 386 | 10.9% | 11.4% | .302 | 6.83 | 7.02 | 156 | 160 |
Brooks Brown | 86.0 | 414 | 10.6% | 11.1% | .309 | 6.80 | 6.88 | 155 | 157 |
Sean Gallagher | 105.7 | 522 | 10.9% | 13.8% | .308 | 7.15 | 7.27 | 163 | 166 |
***
Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | ERA+ | zWAR | No. 1 Comp |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jhoulys Chacin | 163.3 | 6.23 | 3.20 | 0.83 | 111 | 3.3 | Kevin Brown |
Tyler Chatwood | 142.0 | 5.77 | 3.49 | 0.70 | 104 | 2.4 | Al Nipper |
Juan Nicasio | 125.0 | 7.13 | 3.02 | 1.01 | 100 | 1.9 | Bob Walk |
Jorge de la Rosa | 93.0 | 6.19 | 3.29 | 0.97 | 98 | 1.3 | Brian Bohanon |
Eddie Butler | 113.3 | 6.04 | 3.73 | 0.95 | 94 | 1.3 | Ed Wojna |
Rex Brothers | 70.7 | 11.20 | 4.46 | 0.76 | 135 | 1.2 | Mitch Williams |
Jordan Lyles | 165.0 | 5.62 | 2.73 | 1.09 | 86 | 1.0 | Brent Gaff |
Brett Anderson | 64.3 | 7.28 | 2.52 | 0.84 | 103 | 1.0 | Odalis Perez |
Adam Ottavino | 84.3 | 8.75 | 3.63 | 0.85 | 113 | 0.8 | Hector Carrasco |
Chad Bettis | 121.3 | 6.68 | 3.19 | 1.34 | 86 | 0.7 | Matt Crouch |
Jeff Francis | 129.0 | 5.86 | 2.37 | 1.26 | 85 | 0.7 | Terry Mulholland |
Matt Belisle | 68.3 | 7.38 | 1.98 | 0.79 | 113 | 0.7 | Mike Maddux |
Wilton Lopez | 69.3 | 6.23 | 1.95 | 0.91 | 107 | 0.5 | Jeff Tam |
Boone Logan | 44.0 | 10.43 | 3.27 | 1.02 | 115 | 0.5 | Will Ohman |
Rafael Betancourt | 33.7 | 8.28 | 2.67 | 0.80 | 119 | 0.4 | Lee Smith |
Collin McHugh | 131.0 | 5.84 | 3.23 | 1.17 | 82 | 0.4 | John Snyder |
Roy Oswalt | 77.7 | 6.25 | 2.55 | 1.16 | 84 | 0.3 | Charles Nagy |
LaTroy Hawkins | 52.7 | 5.98 | 1.88 | 1.02 | 105 | 0.3 | Dick Hall |
Christian Friedrich | 74.7 | 6.27 | 3.37 | 1.33 | 82 | 0.3 | Lee Upshaw |
Franklin Morales | 54.0 | 8.00 | 4.17 | 1.33 | 92 | 0.2 | Billy Brewer |
Jon Garland | 55.7 | 4.52 | 3.23 | 1.29 | 81 | 0.1 | Scott Erickson |
Josh Roenicke | 67.7 | 6.25 | 4.52 | 1.06 | 93 | 0.0 | Miguel Saladin |
Mike McClendon | 65.0 | 5.26 | 4.43 | 0.69 | 92 | -0.1 | Horacio Pina |
Aaron Cook | 74.0 | 3.41 | 3.04 | 1.22 | 76 | -0.1 | Scott Erickson |
Rob Scahill | 80.0 | 6.75 | 3.71 | 1.24 | 90 | -0.2 | Carlos Valdez |
Justin Berg | 27.3 | 3.96 | 4.95 | 1.32 | 75 | -0.2 | Mike Barlow |
Greg Burke | 63.7 | 6.36 | 3.81 | 0.99 | 88 | -0.3 | Marc Wilkins |
Tyler Matzek | 123.7 | 6.33 | 6.18 | 1.16 | 76 | -0.3 | Jesus Martinez |
Hisanori Takahashi | 44.0 | 7.36 | 3.89 | 1.43 | 84 | -0.3 | Mike Stanton |
Mitchell Boggs | 70.0 | 5.66 | 4.11 | 1.16 | 85 | -0.3 | Jake Robbins |
Roman Colon | 34.3 | 4.99 | 3.94 | 1.05 | 81 | -0.3 | Jim Coates |
Tommy Kahnle | 54.7 | 8.72 | 6.58 | 1.15 | 85 | -0.3 | Chris Schroder |
Logan Kensing | 34.7 | 6.48 | 5.19 | 1.30 | 78 | -0.4 | Dick Selma |
Bobby Cassevah | 37.0 | 4.62 | 4.62 | 1.22 | 76 | -0.5 | Ed Sprague |
Kraig Sitton | 61.0 | 5.16 | 3.69 | 1.18 | 82 | -0.5 | Danny Zell |
Joe Gardner | 60.3 | 5.82 | 4.33 | 1.19 | 81 | -0.6 | Mike Zimmerman |
Manny Corpas | 75.3 | 5.62 | 3.47 | 1.43 | 83 | -0.6 | Scott Brow |
Pedro Hernandez | 106.3 | 4.66 | 2.96 | 1.69 | 70 | -0.9 | Bill Dodd |
Armando Galarraga | 80.3 | 4.71 | 4.93 | 1.91 | 65 | -1.1 | Charlie Robertson |
Brooks Brown | 86.0 | 4.60 | 4.81 | 1.78 | 66 | -1.3 | John Kelly |
Sean Gallagher | 105.7 | 4.85 | 6.13 | 1.79 | 62 | -1.9 | Mike Heathcott |
***
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA.
Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.
Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”
Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
Holy snikes, check out the projections on Rosell Herrera. That’s a pretty darn good season for a 21 year old SS