2014 ZiPS Projections – Kansas City Royals

After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Kansas City Royals. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / San Diego / Seattle / St. Louis / Tampa Bay.

Batters
To the extent that any team lacking the nine best field players in the major leagues can be upgraded, so can the Royals be upgraded. What the projections below suggest, however, is that the club likely won’t be entering the season with any positional black holes. The numbers indicate that perhaps neither Norichika Aoki nor Alcides Escobar are ideal starting options for a club with playoff ambitions. That they’re probably something better than replacement level is also apparent.

Of some interest is how manager Ned Yost might contend with the third-base position in 2014. The offseason trade to acquire Danny Valencia suggests that Yost and/or the club are concerned about Mike Moustakas’s capacity to hit left-handers. It’s true: Valencia probably hits them better. Whether that slight upgrade was worth all of David Lough is less probable.

Pitchers
The reader will note that the starting pitchers in the depth-chart graphic below are arranged not in precise order of expected rotational slot, but rather by projected WAR. The reader will also note that, were that same graphic to include pitchers expected to begin the season in the minor leagues, then Yordano Ventura’s name would appear just below James Shields‘. This is perhaps more of an indictment of Kansas City’s rotation than a celebration of Ventura’s skills. Still, he’s promising, is the point.

After five merely tolerable seasons in the rotation, former first-overall pick Luke Hochevar was entirely excellent in a relief capacity last year, basically doubling his career strikeout rate, recording a 73 xFIP-, and producing a a comparable WAR to that from previous seasons in basically just a third of the innings. Still, he’s expected to compete for a spot in the back of the rotation with Wade Davis, who has also showed promise out of the bullpen before.

Bench/Prospects
Second baseman Johnny Giavotella hasn’t yet become the player he seemed likely to become based on the maturity of his plate approach in the minors even while often skewing young for his levels. He’s projected to produce something between a replacement-level and league-average season, given the opportunity. Among pitchers, Yordano Ventura and Kyle Zimmer were recently ranked as the top-two prospects in the organization by Baseball America. They also appear to be the rookie-eligible pitchers most likely to succeed in the majors this season.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Kansas Citizens, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Salvador Perez	R	24	C	517	51	140	25	3	13	67	0	0
Alex Gordon	L	30	LF	691	90	165	35	5	19	73	11	5
Eric Hosmer	L	24	1B	657	81	177	31	3	20	77	14	4
Billy Butler	R	28	DH	653	66	166	32	0	19	85	1	0
Mike Moustakas	L	25	3B	598	59	140	33	1	18	62	4	3
Omar Infante	R	32	2B	559	55	146	25	4	8	46	7	3
Lorenzo Cain	R	28	CF	477	54	110	21	4	7	49	15	4
Alcides Escobar	R	27	SS	625	65	151	24	6	5	51	23	3
Norichika Aoki	L	32	RF	638	76	161	25	4	5	41	17	8
Johnny Giavotella	R	26	2B	601	64	145	28	3	8	55	8	4
Brandon Laird	R	26	3B	604	64	136	31	1	17	71	1	0
Jarrod Dyson	L	29	CF	377	48	81	12	4	2	22	36	6
Danny Valencia	R	29	3B	513	53	124	30	2	14	61	2	4
Justin Maxwell	R	30	RF	325	43	64	14	2	11	36	9	3
Christian Colon	R	25	2B	529	54	123	13	2	7	42	11	5
Emilio Bonifacio	B	29	2B	451	53	105	16	4	3	25	31	8
Francisco Pena	R	24	C	348	33	73	17	1	6	34	2	1
Pedro Ciriaco	R	28	SS	432	44	105	17	3	4	33	16	6
Orlando Caxito	R	22	SS	556	53	117	24	4	8	42	10	11
Brett Hayes	R	30	C	232	24	50	13	0	7	22	1	0
Gorkys Hernandez	R	26	CF	492	54	101	16	4	4	36	20	9
Chris Getz	L	30	2B	328	37	76	10	2	1	25	15	4
Carlos Pena	L	36	1B	436	51	79	16	1	15	46	2	2
Lane Adams	R	24	CF	588	61	119	23	3	10	46	18	5
Adam Moore	R	30	C	171	16	34	7	0	4	11	1	0
Brian Bocock	R	29	SS	298	25	57	11	1	3	21	6	3
Jason Donald	R	29	2B	373	39	79	16	2	4	26	6	3
Edinson Rincon	R	23	3B	319	32	79	16	0	5	30	2	3
Cheslor Cuthbert	R	21	3B	556	53	118	28	1	9	50	6	5
Miguel Tejada	R	40	2B	150	13	36	4	0	2	14	1	0
Brett Eibner	R	25	CF	471	45	77	16	4	12	36	4	3
Brian Fletcher	R	25	LF	444	42	98	19	1	12	42	6	4
Chase Lambin	B	34	2B	277	23	56	9	2	4	21	1	3
Jorge Bonifacio	R	21	RF	458	47	102	20	3	7	41	4	4
Ben Broussard	L	37	1B	277	23	59	11	0	2	18	0	1
Willy Taveras	R	32	RF	297	27	62	9	2	2	18	8	2

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Salvador Perez	517	4.1%	12.0%	.144	.305	.287	.320	.431	.325
Alex Gordon	691	9.0%	20.1%	.165	.315	.267	.339	.432	.336
Eric Hosmer	657	8.2%	15.1%	.163	.325	.296	.353	.459	.352
Billy Butler	653	10.3%	15.2%	.154	.317	.288	.363	.442	.344
Mike Moustakas	598	6.0%	17.2%	.161	.281	.255	.305	.416	.313
Omar Infante	559	4.3%	10.0%	.108	.297	.279	.309	.387	.302
Lorenzo Cain	477	6.3%	21.6%	.115	.312	.252	.307	.367	.300
Alcides Escobar	625	3.8%	13.4%	.087	.293	.259	.291	.346	.280
Norichika Aoki	638	6.6%	7.5%	.083	.295	.279	.336	.362	.309
Johnny Giavotella	601	7.0%	14.1%	.105	.297	.263	.317	.368	.303
Brandon Laird	604	4.1%	19.7%	.148	.272	.240	.276	.388	.290
Jarrod Dyson	377	7.4%	17.2%	.077	.289	.240	.300	.317	.283
Danny Valencia	513	4.9%	17.5%	.157	.286	.256	.290	.413	.304
Justin Maxwell	325	8.9%	31.1%	.175	.293	.220	.295	.395	.307
Christian Colon	529	5.5%	10.8%	.079	.276	.256	.303	.335	.279
Emilio Bonifacio	451	7.5%	19.3%	.081	.319	.258	.315	.339	.295
Francisco Pena	348	5.2%	19.3%	.115	.266	.226	.272	.341	.270
Pedro Ciriaco	432	2.8%	16.7%	.085	.300	.256	.279	.341	.269
Orlando Caxito	556	5.6%	25.9%	.108	.296	.226	.271	.334	.263
Brett Hayes	232	3.9%	26.3%	.155	.281	.227	.260	.382	.277
Gorkys Hernandez	492	6.9%	26.8%	.082	.313	.227	.290	.309	.268
Chris Getz	328	6.1%	9.5%	.057	.282	.257	.304	.314	.272
Carlos Pena	436	13.5%	27.5%	.171	.272	.215	.331	.386	.314
Lane Adams	588	6.5%	27.2%	.108	.291	.220	.274	.328	.271
Adam Moore	171	5.8%	26.9%	.120	.275	.215	.265	.335	.266
Brian Bocock	298	6.4%	21.8%	.080	.261	.209	.261	.289	.243
Jason Donald	373	5.9%	24.7%	.094	.304	.231	.286	.325	.272
Edinson Rincon	319	3.8%	17.9%	.101	.302	.258	.285	.359	.282
Cheslor Cuthbert	556	5.9%	20.1%	.110	.273	.228	.276	.338	.271
Miguel Tejada	150	4.0%	14.0%	.072	.288	.257	.291	.329	.269
Brett Eibner	471	8.3%	39.3%	.141	.283	.181	.255	.322	.258
Brian Fletcher	444	4.1%	28.6%	.137	.306	.234	.275	.371	.284
Chase Lambin	277	5.8%	24.2%	.099	.283	.222	.276	.321	.259
Jorge Bonifacio	458	5.9%	23.6%	.111	.304	.239	.288	.350	.282
Ben Broussard	277	5.1%	26.0%	.067	.308	.230	.275	.297	.254
Willy Taveras	297	3.7%	16.5%	.068	.263	.224	.259	.292	.246

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Salvador Perez	517	5.2	104	8	4.0	Sandy Alomar
Alex Gordon	691	5.4	110	10	3.5	Gary Matthews
Eric Hosmer	657	6.3	121	-2	2.7	Whitey Lockman
Billy Butler	653	6.1	120	0	2.5	Mike Sweeney
Mike Moustakas	598	4.6	96	3	2.3	Andy Marte
Omar Infante	559	4.5	90	2	1.7	Manny Trillo
Lorenzo Cain	477	4.2	84	5	1.7	Brian McRae
Alcides Escobar	625	4.0	74	3	1.5	Cristian Guzman
Norichika Aoki	638	4.6	93	5	1.5	Lloyd Waner
Johnny Giavotella	601	4.3	88	-2	1.3	Todd Haney
Brandon Laird	604	3.8	80	2	1.1	Josh Klimek
Jarrod Dyson	377	4.1	70	4	1.0	Rich Thompson
Danny Valencia	513	4.2	91	-3	0.9	Juan Uribe
Justin Maxwell	325	4.2	88	5	0.9	Chris Jones
Christian Colon	529	3.7	75	3	0.8	Benjamin Perez
Emilio Bonifacio	451	4.3	80	-2	0.7	Nelson Liriano
Francisco Pena	348	3.2	67	0	0.5	Jeff Winchester
Pedro Ciriaco	432	3.6	70	1	0.4	Aaron Holbert
Orlando Caxito	556	2.9	65	4	0.4	Sean Mcnally
Brett Hayes	232	3.5	74	-2	0.3	Brandon Marsters
Gorkys Hernandez	492	3.2	65	4	0.3	Herm Winningham
Chris Getz	328	3.7	71	0	0.2	Paul Faries
Carlos Pena	436	4.3	97	-2	0.2	Robin Ventura
Lane Adams	588	3.3	65	1	0.0	Charles Peterson
Adam Moore	171	3.1	64	-3	-0.1	Dane Sardinha
Brian Bocock	298	2.6	51	3	-0.1	Les Dennis
Jason Donald	373	3.3	68	-2	-0.2	Nick Green
Edinson Rincon	319	3.6	76	-5	-0.4	Kennedy Infante
Cheslor Cuthbert	556	3.2	68	-3	-0.4	Vicente Garcia
Miguel Tejada	150	3.6	70	-4	-0.5	Pete Suder
Brett Eibner	471	2.7	57	1	-0.5	Mike Rosamond
Brian Fletcher	444	3.5	75	-2	-0.7	Angelo Logrande
Chase Lambin	277	2.9	64	-5	-0.8	Dave McKay
Jorge Bonifacio	458	3.5	75	-3	-0.9	Brandon Snyder
Ben Broussard	277	2.8	58	-1	-1.2	Tom Paciorek
Willy Taveras	297	2.8	52	-3	-1.5	Manny Martinez

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
James Shields	R	32	31	31	212.0	194	59	22	204	91	85
Ervin Santana	R	31	29	29	185.7	147	55	27	184	94	88
Yordano Ventura	R	23	26	26	137.3	114	57	14	137	68	64
Greg Holland	R	28	66	0	69.3	100	26	5	49	19	18
Jeremy Guthrie	R	35	28	26	166.0	96	48	22	184	90	84
Danny Duffy	L	25	16	16	94.0	90	47	9	89	46	43
Jason Vargas	L	31	30	30	191.0	123	50	33	198	107	100
Wade Davis	R	28	27	23	140.3	118	54	16	151	76	71
Luke Hochevar	R	30	61	0	70.7	83	20	8	56	26	24
Bruce Chen	L	37	26	19	120.0	85	37	16	124	63	59
Kelvin Herrera	R	24	74	0	79.7	93	26	8	68	31	29
Louis Coleman	R	28	53	0	69.3	75	31	7	59	29	27
Tim Collins	L	24	70	0	61.3	73	30	5	52	26	24
Luis Mendoza	R	30	25	17	114.7	68	48	12	125	65	61
Kyle Zimmer	R	22	23	23	104.7	98	47	16	103	60	56
Aaron Crow	R	27	63	0	57.3	59	24	6	53	26	24
Andrew Triggs	R	25	37	0	60.0	43	18	5	62	29	27
Brian Sanches	R	35	31	6	67.7	37	23	7	76	39	36
Everett Teaford	L	30	31	11	82.7	56	38	11	89	49	46
George Sherrill	L	37	20	0	16.7	15	9	2	17	10	9
Francisley Bueno	L	33	43	0	63.3	39	27	7	68	36	34
Dan Wheeler	R	36	28	0	31.7	19	12	5	36	20	19
Cory Wade	R	31	49	2	65.0	41	24	9	73	40	37
Donnie Joseph	L	26	56	0	59.3	58	44	7	58	36	34
Jason Bergmann	R	32	21	3	40.0	24	26	6	46	29	27
John Lamb	L	23	17	17	72.7	41	24	13	91	51	48
Maikel Cleto	R	25	49	5	76.7	65	58	9	79	49	46
Michael Mariot	R	25	39	7	81.7	49	37	11	94	54	50
Clayton Mortensen	R	29	42	4	70.3	51	43	10	75	46	43
P.J. Walters	R	29	26	25	122.7	76	63	17	143	83	78
Justin Marks	L	26	24	20	111.3	72	62	16	128	77	72
Zach Jackson	L	31	29	12	87.7	34	44	13	109	64	60
Ryan Verdugo	L	27	23	19	93.0	61	61	17	106	71	66
Jason Adam	R	22	25	25	131.3	77	69	23	156	97	91
Chris Dwyer	L	26	27	25	128.3	74	90	21	148	97	91
Noel Arguelles	L	24	26	17	79.3	46	71	13	96	70	65
Sugar Ray Marimon	R	25	23	21	107.3	60	60	26	136	92	86

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
James Shields	212.0	899	21.6%	6.6%	.295	3.61	3.72	88	90
Ervin Santana	185.7	796	18.5%	6.9%	.280	4.27	4.53	104	110
Yordano Ventura	137.3	606	18.8%	9.4%	.299	4.19	4.35	102	106
Greg Holland	69.3	283	35.3%	9.2%	.290	2.34	2.31	57	56
Jeremy Guthrie	166.0	730	13.2%	6.6%	.291	4.55	4.81	110	117
Danny Duffy	94.0	418	21.5%	11.2%	.299	4.12	4.19	100	102
Jason Vargas	191.0	821	15.0%	6.1%	.270	4.71	5.04	114	122
Wade Davis	140.3	626	18.9%	8.6%	.313	4.55	4.33	110	105
Luke Hochevar	70.7	288	28.8%	6.9%	.274	3.06	3.28	74	80
Bruce Chen	120.0	521	16.3%	7.1%	.285	4.42	4.53	107	110
Kelvin Herrera	79.7	333	27.9%	7.8%	.295	3.28	3.18	80	77
Louis Coleman	69.3	298	25.2%	10.4%	.286	3.50	3.71	85	90
Tim Collins	61.3	266	27.5%	11.3%	.300	3.52	3.27	85	79
Luis Mendoza	114.7	517	13.2%	9.3%	.295	4.79	4.83	116	117
Kyle Zimmer	104.7	464	21.1%	10.1%	.293	4.82	4.90	117	119
Aaron Crow	57.3	249	23.7%	9.6%	.296	3.77	3.72	91	90
Andrew Triggs	60.0	260	16.5%	6.9%	.300	4.05	3.97	98	96
Brian Sanches	67.7	302	12.2%	7.6%	.299	4.79	4.62	116	112
Everett Teaford	82.7	375	14.9%	10.1%	.294	5.01	5.16	122	125
George Sherrill	16.7	76	19.7%	11.8%	.305	4.86	4.64	118	113
Francisley Bueno	63.3	285	13.7%	9.5%	.293	4.83	4.84	117	118
Dan Wheeler	31.7	143	13.3%	8.4%	.292	5.40	5.25	131	127
Cory Wade	65.0	292	14.0%	8.2%	.298	5.12	5.00	124	121
Donnie Joseph	59.3	280	20.7%	15.7%	.306	5.16	5.17	125	125
Jason Bergmann	40.0	192	12.5%	13.5%	.301	6.07	6.12	147	148
John Lamb	72.7	333	12.3%	7.2%	.312	5.94	5.66	144	137
Maikel Cleto	76.7	367	17.7%	15.8%	.306	5.40	5.56	131	135
Michael Mariot	81.7	376	13.0%	9.8%	.304	5.51	5.32	134	129
Clayton Mortensen	70.3	329	15.5%	13.1%	.296	5.50	5.67	133	138
P.J. Walters	122.7	574	13.2%	11.0%	.306	5.72	5.51	139	134
Justin Marks	111.3	524	13.7%	11.8%	.306	5.82	5.73	141	139
Zach Jackson	87.7	416	8.2%	10.6%	.301	6.16	6.13	149	149
Ryan Verdugo	93.0	446	13.7%	13.7%	.296	6.39	6.46	155	157
Jason Adam	131.3	619	12.4%	11.1%	.302	6.24	6.13	151	149
Chris Dwyer	128.3	623	11.9%	14.4%	.296	6.38	6.55	155	159
Noel Arguelles	79.3	405	11.4%	17.5%	.309	7.37	7.11	179	173
Sugar Ray Marimon	107.3	518	11.6%	11.6%	.302	7.21	7.20	175	175

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
James Shields	212.0	8.24	2.50	0.93	114	4.2	Bob Welch
Ervin Santana	185.7	7.12	2.67	1.31	96	2.2	Ramon Ortiz
Yordano Ventura	137.3	7.47	3.74	0.92	98	1.7	Matt Clement
Greg Holland	69.3	12.99	3.38	0.65	175	1.7	Bryan Harvey
Jeremy Guthrie	166.0	5.20	2.60	1.19	90	1.3	Walt Terrell
Danny Duffy	94.0	8.62	4.50	0.86	100	1.3	Erik Bedard
Jason Vargas	191.0	5.80	2.36	1.55	87	1.2	Scott McGregor
Wade Davis	140.3	7.57	3.46	1.03	90	1.1	Victor Santos
Luke Hochevar	70.7	10.57	2.55	1.02	134	1.1	Trevor Hoffman
Bruce Chen	120.0	6.38	2.78	1.20	93	1.1	Paul Splittorff
Kelvin Herrera	79.7	10.50	2.94	0.90	125	1.0	Jonathan Broxton
Louis Coleman	69.3	9.74	4.03	0.91	117	0.7	Brad Lidge
Tim Collins	61.3	10.72	4.40	0.73	116	0.6	Randy Myers
Luis Mendoza	114.7	5.34	3.77	0.94	86	0.5	Omar Olivares
Kyle Zimmer	104.7	8.42	4.04	1.38	85	0.5	John Patterson
Aaron Crow	57.3	9.27	3.77	0.94	109	0.4	Karl Best
Andrew Triggs	60.0	6.45	2.70	0.75	101	0.2	David Wilhelmi
Brian Sanches	67.7	4.92	3.06	0.93	86	0.1	Bob Scanlan
Everett Teaford	82.7	6.09	4.14	1.20	82	0.0	Chris Cumberland
George Sherrill	16.7	8.08	4.85	1.08	84	-0.1	Norm Charlton
Francisley Bueno	63.3	5.55	3.84	1.00	85	-0.4	Darold Knowles
Dan Wheeler	31.7	5.39	3.41	1.42	76	-0.4	Ernie Johnson
Cory Wade	65.0	5.68	3.32	1.25	80	-0.5	Brandon Puffer
Donnie Joseph	59.3	8.80	6.68	1.06	79	-0.6	Kevin Lovingier
Jason Bergmann	40.0	5.40	5.85	1.35	67	-0.6	Elmer Riddle
John Lamb	72.7	5.08	2.97	1.61	69	-0.6	Joe Saunders
Maikel Cleto	76.7	7.63	6.81	1.06	76	-0.6	Ryan Henderson
Michael Mariot	81.7	5.40	4.08	1.21	74	-0.6	Gerrit Simpson
Clayton Mortensen	70.3	6.53	5.50	1.28	74	-0.7	Jake Robbins
P.J. Walters	122.7	5.57	4.62	1.25	72	-0.7	Robert Ellis
Justin Marks	111.3	5.82	5.01	1.29	70	-0.8	Sebern Wright
Zach Jackson	87.7	3.49	4.52	1.33	67	-1.2	Chris Peters
Ryan Verdugo	93.0	5.90	5.90	1.65	64	-1.3	Chris Waters
Jason Adam	131.3	5.28	4.73	1.58	66	-1.6	Keith Bucktrot
Chris Dwyer	128.3	5.19	6.31	1.47	64	-1.8	Chris Waters
Noel Arguelles	79.3	5.22	8.06	1.48	56	-2.1	Rejino Gonzalez
Sugar Ray Marimon	107.3	5.03	5.03	2.18	57	-2.6	Bryan Corey

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.