2014 ZiPS Projections – Los Angeles Angels

After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Los Angeles Angels. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Kansas City / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / San Diego / Seattle / St. Louis / Tampa Bay / Toronto.

Batters
The reader likely already knows, but the author will state for the benefit of anyone who might not, that it is generally the case with these projections that they’re more conservative than one’s own intuition might otherwise suggest. Not infrequently, partisan commenters will respond to these posts with regard to this or that player, saying “I’ll take the over on that projection.” Perhaps, in some cases, that’s a fair statement to make: the relative success of the FAN projections also hosted at this site suggests that the crowd might have some insight into these matters. Still, Szymborski’s forecasts are derived empirically — and, to that end, can’t be merely ignored.

It’s in light of that belabored caveat that the reader is thus invited to lose all of his shits so far as Mike Trout’s ZiPS projection is concerned. Miguel Cabrera, Evan Longoria, Andrew McCutchen, Joey Votto, Justin Verlander: none of them come within three wins of Trout, so far as ZiPS is concerned. He’s a superhero, basically, were it possible for superheroes to hail from New Jersey.

Pitchers
As has been the case in other editions of these ZiPS posts, the starting pitchers included on the depth-chart graphic below are not listed in order of probable rotation slot. Rather what the author has done is to arrange the five pitchers most likely to make the opening-day rotation in order of projected WAR, according to ZiPS.

What one finds is that the Angels probably have the right set of five starters, so far as their organization is concerned. What one also finds, however, is that it isn’t an ideal collection of starters, probably. Right-hander Garrett Richards remains a bit of a mystery. Despite excellent armspeed, he doesn’t induce very many whiffs. Nor is ZiPS particularly optimistic, it seems, about his chances of producing a league-average FIP or ERA.

Bench/Prospects
While not a prospect proper, right fielder Kole Calhoun is a young player who enters the season with fewer than 250 career plate appearances and yet a decidedly encouraging projection — one basically on par with left fielder Josh Hamilton’s, for example, at considerably fewer dollars per win. Perhaps somewhat surprisingly — even to Eric Stamets himself — shortstop Eric Stamets is projected to approach major-league average (or its equivalent in the minors), despite having recorded zero plate appearances above High-A. Much of that is due to his defensive projection, which benefits from +7 defensive runs beyond the already lofty positional adjustment for shortstops.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Anaheimers, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Mike Trout	R	22	CF	714	119	179	35	9	29	95	43	7
Albert Pujols	R	34	1B	538	68	133	28	0	24	81	5	1
Howie Kendrick	R	30	2B	579	65	150	27	4	13	65	11	5
Erick Aybar	B	30	SS	607	74	155	32	6	8	55	19	6
Josh Hamilton	L	33	RF	591	70	138	27	4	22	79	5	1
Kole Calhoun	L	26	CF	542	64	124	23	5	15	66	10	4
Chris Iannetta	R	31	C	352	34	64	12	0	10	36	2	2
David Freese	R	31	3B	484	46	107	20	1	11	55	2	2
Hank Conger	B	26	C	329	31	73	15	1	8	32	0	1
Jett Bandy	R	24	C	400	37	83	22	1	6	37	1	1
Eric Stamets	R	22	SS	498	49	112	19	1	3	35	10	4
Raul Ibanez	L	42	DH	424	47	94	18	2	20	59	1	0
Tommy Field	R	27	SS	498	48	97	19	3	9	41	6	2
Taylor Lindsey	L	22	2B	598	62	138	23	4	12	52	4	5
Shawn O’Malley	B	26	SS	383	41	78	9	4	2	23	15	5
Grant Green	R	26	2B	631	67	148	30	3	11	61	6	5
Luis Jimenez	R	26	3B	496	53	116	26	2	9	53	11	5
Collin Cowgill	R	28	LF	448	47	96	18	3	8	42	11	3
Alex Yarbrough	B	22	2B	523	51	126	21	4	6	47	9	3
Andrew Romine	B	28	SS	501	49	105	13	3	3	35	14	6
Luis Rodriguez	B	34	2B	386	38	84	17	1	6	40	2	4
Luis Martinez	R	29	C	282	23	59	13	1	1	21	1	1
Jimmy Swift	R	26	SS	434	36	89	17	2	5	33	5	3
Chris Nelson	R	28	3B	448	41	99	18	4	9	49	4	2
J.B. Shuck	L	27	LF	497	57	117	17	4	1	36	10	6
Zach Borenstein	L	23	LF	441	49	97	18	2	14	50	6	6
Cyle Hankerd	R	29	LF	210	23	43	8	1	6	23	1	1
Kaleb Cowart	B	22	3B	600	55	122	23	3	9	50	11	6
Luke Carlin	B	33	C	267	26	49	7	0	3	20	2	1
John Hester	R	30	C	296	30	56	10	1	6	23	1	2
Matt Long	L	27	RF	572	64	118	23	6	9	53	17	6
Scott Cousins	L	29	CF	262	27	51	7	2	4	21	6	2
Brad Hawpe	L	35	RF	187	17	34	6	0	4	16	1	1
Lou Montanez	R	32	LF	246	22	53	9	1	3	22	2	3
C.J. Cron	R	24	1B	536	52	121	26	1	13	63	4	4
Efren Navarro	L	28	1B	592	59	132	28	2	6	53	5	3
Trent Oeltjen	L	31	RF	403	41	75	18	3	8	37	12	6
Bill Hall	R	34	2B	242	23	42	8	0	7	22	2	1
Rusty Ryal	R	31	1B	336	28	65	11	1	3	23	1	1

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Mike Trout	714	14.1%	18.6%	.235	.339	.300	.403	.535	.406
Albert Pujols	538	8.9%	11.9%	.208	.274	.277	.344	.485	.344
Howie Kendrick	579	4.5%	18.0%	.137	.322	.278	.317	.415	.316
Erick Aybar	607	4.3%	10.7%	.121	.298	.275	.311	.396	.307
Josh Hamilton	591	7.8%	23.4%	.189	.304	.259	.318	.448	.325
Kole Calhoun	542	8.1%	19.9%	.158	.293	.253	.315	.411	.319
Chris Iannetta	352	15.1%	25.3%	.144	.274	.218	.341	.362	.314
David Freese	484	8.7%	23.6%	.127	.310	.247	.322	.374	.309
Hank Conger	329	7.0%	20.4%	.137	.288	.244	.303	.381	.296
Jett Bandy	400	3.5%	17.3%	.115	.262	.227	.283	.342	.278
Eric Stamets	498	3.8%	14.9%	.065	.282	.242	.279	.307	.258
Raul Ibanez	424	7.5%	22.4%	.210	.268	.241	.300	.451	.325
Tommy Field	498	7.2%	25.3%	.116	.278	.217	.283	.333	.275
Taylor Lindsey	598	5.2%	17.2%	.120	.283	.247	.290	.367	.288
Shawn O’Malley	383	6.3%	22.2%	.067	.291	.225	.282	.292	.257
Grant Green	631	4.6%	22.0%	.117	.308	.250	.289	.367	.286
Luis Jimenez	496	3.0%	17.5%	.122	.283	.248	.275	.370	.281
Collin Cowgill	448	6.5%	22.1%	.117	.289	.234	.288	.351	.284
Alex Yarbrough	523	2.9%	18.7%	.093	.298	.250	.272	.343	.271
Andrew Romine	501	6.2%	19.8%	.061	.287	.231	.285	.292	.257
Luis Rodriguez	386	6.5%	11.9%	.105	.257	.239	.292	.344	.278
Luis Martinez	282	6.4%	23.0%	.069	.296	.227	.280	.296	.256
Jimmy Swift	434	3.9%	27.0%	.089	.295	.220	.257	.309	.248
Chris Nelson	448	5.1%	23.7%	.127	.293	.237	.277	.364	.280
J.B. Shuck	497	7.4%	11.3%	.063	.291	.259	.314	.322	.281
Zach Borenstein	441	6.1%	24.0%	.159	.288	.240	.293	.399	.299
Cyle Hankerd	210	4.3%	23.8%	.147	.272	.225	.290	.372	.291
Kaleb Cowart	600	6.2%	25.3%	.101	.284	.219	.269	.320	.262
Luke Carlin	267	9.7%	20.6%	.068	.257	.209	.288	.277	.254
John Hester	296	6.8%	29.7%	.110	.278	.206	.261	.316	.255
Matt Long	572	6.8%	22.6%	.120	.282	.227	.282	.347	.277
Scott Cousins	262	5.7%	26.7%	.095	.280	.212	.265	.307	.254
Brad Hawpe	187	10.2%	32.6%	.108	.294	.205	.289	.313	.269
Lou Montanez	246	6.5%	16.3%	.088	.270	.235	.289	.323	.271
C.J. Cron	536	2.8%	19.6%	.132	.275	.239	.272	.371	.280
Efren Navarro	592	6.1%	18.1%	.091	.286	.241	.288	.332	.274
Trent Oeltjen	403	6.7%	33.0%	.132	.298	.207	.271	.339	.266
Bill Hall	242	6.2%	40.9%	.129	.292	.187	.240	.316	.245
Rusty Ryal	336	3.3%	29.2%	.069	.286	.206	.245	.275	.232

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Mike Trout	714	8.9	164	2	9.5	Mickey Mantle
Albert Pujols	538	6.3	133	3	3.0	Albert Belle
Howie Kendrick	579	4.9	106	2	2.9	Michael Young
Erick Aybar	607	4.7	100	-4	2.6	Tony Fernandez
Josh Hamilton	591	5.3	115	1	2.3	Donn Clendenon
Kole Calhoun	542	4.7	105	-4	2.1	John Bowker
Chris Iannetta	352	4.2	101	-1	2.0	Tom Wilson
David Freese	484	4.3	98	-5	1.3	Pinky Higgins
Hank Conger	329	4.1	93	-2	1.3	Keith Osik
Jett Bandy	400	3.4	77	0	1.3	Jeff Winchester
Eric Stamets	498	3.1	67	7	1.2	Geoff Blum
Raul Ibanez	424	4.8	110	0	1.1	Fred Lynn
Tommy Field	498	3.3	75	0	1.0	Leo Durocher
Taylor Lindsey	598	3.7	86	-2	1.0	Martin Prado
Shawn O’Malley	383	3.0	64	5	0.8	Domingo Cedeno
Grant Green	631	3.8	85	-6	0.7	Mark Lewis
Luis Jimenez	496	3.7	82	-1	0.7	Angel Chavez
Collin Cowgill	448	3.7	81	4	0.6	Scott Lusader
Alex Yarbrough	523	3.4	74	1	0.5	Andre Wood
Andrew Romine	501	3.0	65	0	0.4	Frank Mattox
Luis Rodriguez	386	3.4	80	-1	0.3	Geoff Blum
Luis Martinez	282	2.9	65	-1	0.3	Mike DiFelice
Jimmy Swift	434	2.7	60	2	0.1	Rayner Bautista
Chris Nelson	448	3.6	81	-5	0.1	Brandon Inge
J.B. Shuck	497	3.6	82	1	0.1	Ken Ramos
Zach Borenstein	441	4.0	95	-5	0.0	Roosevelt Brown
Cyle Hankerd	210	3.7	87	-2	0.0	Ryan Jones
Kaleb Cowart	600	3.0	67	-1	-0.1	Matt Tuiasosopo
Luke Carlin	267	2.7	62	-5	-0.1	Chad Moeller
John Hester	296	2.7	63	-5	-0.2	Danny Ardoin
Matt Long	572	3.5	78	-2	-0.4	Benjamin Copeland
Scott Cousins	262	2.9	63	-3	-0.4	Jay Sitzman
Brad Hawpe	187	3.0	72	-3	-0.5	Dann Howitt
Lou Montanez	246	3.1	74	-2	-0.5	Chris Pritchett
C.J. Cron	536	3.5	81	1	-0.6	Butch Garcia
Efren Navarro	592	3.4	76	3	-0.6	Rich Aldrete
Trent Oeltjen	403	3.1	72	-2	-0.7	Rob Lukachyk
Bill Hall	242	2.5	56	-4	-0.8	Steve Scarsone
Rusty Ryal	336	2.3	48	-2	-2.0	Frank Charles

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Jered Weaver	R	31	27	27	172.3	142	42	18	152	66	62
C.J. Wilson	L	33	31	31	197.3	180	77	16	180	82	77
Tyler Skaggs	L	22	28	27	158.3	140	63	14	148	72	67
Hector Santiago	L	26	34	18	122.7	113	53	13	112	56	52
Ernesto Frieri	R	28	66	0	68.3	96	30	8	50	25	23
Joe Smith	R	30	70	0	63.3	54	23	5	56	25	23
Jerome Williams	R	32	30	19	139.3	94	40	19	147	75	70
Garrett Richards	R	26	40	19	139.0	95	54	14	145	74	69
Dane de la Rosa	R	31	70	0	69.7	65	29	6	62	30	28
Fernando Salas	R	29	59	0	58.7	55	18	6	53	26	24
Tommy Hanson	R	27	23	22	125.7	113	47	20	129	71	66
R.J. Alvarez	R	23	34	0	42.3	47	23	4	36	19	18
Wade LeBlanc	L	29	34	20	130.0	88	41	18	141	73	68
Sean Burnett	L	31	42	0	34.0	29	11	4	33	16	15
Michael Kohn	R	28	65	0	58.7	61	26	8	52	28	26
Michael Morin	R	23	46	0	54.3	42	15	6	55	27	25
Kevin Jepsen	R	29	54	0	49.0	43	19	6	49	25	23
Matt Shoemaker	R	27	27	27	165.7	100	38	24	192	96	90
Mark Mulder	R	36	9	0	10.7	7	4	1	11	6	6
Clay Rapada	L	33	50	0	33.0	26	15	3	32	17	16
Brian Moran	L	25	48	0	63.7	56	20	8	64	32	30
Nick Maronde	L	24	45	7	71.3	57	33	9	72	40	37
Rob Delaney	R	29	35	0	47.3	27	17	4	50	25	23
Joe Blanton	R	33	23	18	118.0	95	25	20	133	70	65
Ryan Brasier	R	26	51	0	62.0	46	27	7	63	33	31
Michael Roth	L	24	24	13	64.7	50	32	9	70	41	38
Jeremy Berg	R	27	52	0	73.3	51	25	9	77	40	37
Chad Cordero	R	32	55	0	54.0	32	15	7	60	31	29
Josh Wall	R	27	56	0	60.7	45	26	7	63	34	32
Billy Buckner	R	30	23	21	109.3	65	47	16	120	70	65
Robert Carson	L	25	59	0	66.0	43	27	9	69	39	36
Kip Wells	R	37	9	8	39.7	17	25	6	47	30	28
Cory Rasmus	R	26	62	0	61.0	54	41	8	60	36	34
Mark Sappington	R	23	26	26	134.3	96	79	17	139	85	79
Buddy Boshers	L	26	57	1	64.0	51	40	8	65	40	37
Chris Volstad	R	27	29	26	149.3	78	51	21	175	94	88
Fernando Cabrera	R	32	52	1	62.0	46	31	10	66	40	37
Ryan Chaffee	R	26	53	0	56.3	51	43	7	55	36	34
Brandon Hynick	R	29	23	20	112.0	57	37	21	131	77	72
Barry Enright	R	28	27	25	131.7	75	53	27	158	96	90

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Jered Weaver	172.3	711	20.0%	5.9%	.266	3.24	3.73	84	96
C.J. Wilson	197.3	849	21.2%	9.1%	.288	3.51	3.68	91	95
Tyler Skaggs	158.3	686	20.4%	9.2%	.291	3.81	3.93	98	101
Hector Santiago	122.7	533	21.2%	9.9%	.289	3.82	4.25	98	110
Ernesto Frieri	68.3	285	33.7%	10.5%	.290	3.03	3.40	78	88
Joe Smith	63.3	269	20.1%	8.6%	.276	3.27	3.61	84	93
Jerome Williams	139.3	605	15.5%	6.6%	.286	4.52	4.57	117	118
Garrett Richards	139.0	616	15.4%	8.8%	.292	4.47	4.35	115	112
Dane de la Rosa	69.7	300	21.7%	9.7%	.283	3.62	3.75	93	97
Fernando Salas	58.7	247	22.3%	7.3%	.283	3.68	3.52	95	91
Tommy Hanson	125.7	553	20.4%	8.5%	.295	4.73	4.62	122	119
R.J. Alvarez	42.3	186	25.3%	12.4%	.294	3.83	4.05	99	104
Wade LeBlanc	130.0	572	15.4%	7.2%	.294	4.71	4.68	121	121
Sean Burnett	34.0	146	19.9%	7.5%	.290	3.97	3.99	102	103
Michael Kohn	58.7	254	24.0%	10.2%	.282	3.99	4.27	103	110
Michael Morin	54.3	233	18.0%	6.4%	.294	4.14	3.97	107	102
Kevin Jepsen	49.0	215	20.0%	8.8%	.297	4.22	4.14	109	107
Matt Shoemaker	165.7	727	13.8%	5.2%	.303	4.89	4.74	126	122
Mark Mulder	10.7	47	14.9%	8.5%	.285	5.06	4.23	130	109
Clay Rapada	33.0	146	17.8%	10.3%	.290	4.36	4.35	112	112
Brian Moran	63.7	275	20.4%	7.3%	.299	4.24	4.06	109	105
Nick Maronde	71.3	319	17.9%	10.3%	.292	4.67	4.71	120	122
Rob Delaney	47.3	209	12.9%	8.1%	.289	4.37	4.24	113	109
Joe Blanton	118.0	512	18.6%	4.9%	.306	4.96	4.45	128	115
Ryan Brasier	62.0	276	16.7%	9.8%	.292	4.50	4.68	116	121
Michael Roth	64.7	296	16.9%	10.8%	.305	5.29	5.13	136	132
Jeremy Berg	73.3	322	15.8%	7.8%	.292	4.54	4.55	117	117
Chad Cordero	54.0	237	13.5%	6.3%	.294	4.83	4.64	125	120
Josh Wall	60.7	271	16.6%	9.6%	.296	4.75	4.60	122	119
Billy Buckner	109.3	495	13.1%	9.5%	.289	5.35	5.40	138	139
Robert Carson	66.0	294	14.6%	9.2%	.284	4.91	4.99	127	129
Kip Wells	39.7	191	8.9%	13.1%	.291	6.35	6.27	164	162
Cory Rasmus	61.0	284	19.0%	14.4%	.294	5.02	5.25	129	135
Mark Sappington	134.3	621	15.5%	12.7%	.291	5.29	5.38	136	139
Buddy Boshers	64.0	297	17.2%	13.5%	.294	5.20	5.20	134	134
Chris Volstad	149.3	674	11.6%	7.6%	.298	5.30	5.09	137	131
Fernando Cabrera	62.0	283	16.3%	11.0%	.292	5.37	5.41	138	139
Ryan Chaffee	56.3	267	19.1%	16.1%	.296	5.43	5.35	140	138
Brandon Hynick	112.0	504	11.3%	7.3%	.289	5.79	5.83	149	150
Barry Enright	131.7	606	12.4%	8.7%	.296	6.15	6.09	159	157

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Jered Weaver	172.3	7.42	2.19	0.94	117	3.3	Chris Bosio
C.J. Wilson	197.3	8.21	3.51	0.73	108	3.1	Doug Davis
Tyler Skaggs	158.3	7.96	3.58	0.80	99	1.9	Paul Maholm
Hector Santiago	122.7	8.29	3.89	0.95	99	1.3	Bobby Jones
Ernesto Frieri	68.3	12.65	3.95	1.05	125	0.8	Bryan Harvey
Joe Smith	63.3	7.68	3.27	0.71	116	0.6	Cory Bailey
Jerome Williams	139.3	6.07	2.58	1.23	84	0.4	Ramon Ortiz
Garrett Richards	139.0	6.15	3.50	0.91	85	0.4	Chris Hook
Dane de la Rosa	69.7	8.39	3.74	0.77	104	0.3	Marc Wilkins
Fernando Salas	58.7	8.43	2.76	0.92	103	0.2	Scott Bankhead
Tommy Hanson	125.7	8.09	3.37	1.43	80	0.1	Dave Mlicki
R.J. Alvarez	42.3	10.00	4.89	0.85	99	0.1	Eric Cammack
Wade LeBlanc	130.0	6.09	2.84	1.25	80	0.1	Brian Abraham
Sean Burnett	34.0	7.68	2.91	1.06	95	0.0	Brian Shouse
Michael Kohn	58.7	9.35	3.99	1.23	95	0.0	Bo Donaldson
Michael Morin	54.3	6.96	2.49	0.99	91	-0.1	John Doherty
Kevin Jepsen	49.0	7.90	3.49	1.10	89	-0.1	Jesus Colome
Matt Shoemaker	165.7	5.43	2.06	1.30	77	-0.1	Brian Meadows
Mark Mulder	10.7	5.89	3.36	0.84	75	-0.1	Ben Weber
Clay Rapada	33.0	7.09	4.09	0.82	87	-0.1	Pedro Borbon
Brian Moran	63.7	7.91	2.83	1.13	89	-0.2	Ron Flores
Nick Maronde	71.3	7.19	4.17	1.14	81	-0.2	Keith Helton
Rob Delaney	47.3	5.14	3.23	0.76	86	-0.2	Gary Wagner
Joe Blanton	118.0	7.25	1.91	1.53	76	-0.2	Brian Tollberg
Ryan Brasier	62.0	6.68	3.92	1.02	84	-0.4	William Vaughan
Michael Roth	64.7	6.96	4.45	1.25	71	-0.4	Luis Ramirez
Jeremy Berg	73.3	6.26	3.07	1.11	83	-0.5	Richie Barker
Chad Cordero	54.0	5.33	2.50	1.17	78	-0.5	Chuck Crim
Josh Wall	60.7	6.67	3.86	1.04	80	-0.5	Rick Greene
Billy Buckner	109.3	5.35	3.87	1.32	71	-0.7	Ryan Jensen
Robert Carson	66.0	5.86	3.68	1.23	77	-0.7	Kevin Ohme
Kip Wells	39.7	3.85	5.67	1.36	59	-0.7	Ed Riley
Cory Rasmus	61.0	7.97	6.05	1.18	75	-0.7	Terry Bross
Mark Sappington	134.3	6.43	5.29	1.14	71	-0.8	Ken Pumphrey
Buddy Boshers	64.0	7.17	5.63	1.13	73	-0.9	Justin Lamber
Chris Volstad	149.3	4.70	3.07	1.27	71	-0.9	Kyle Middleton
Fernando Cabrera	62.0	6.68	4.50	1.45	70	-1.0	Mike Sullivan
Ryan Chaffee	56.3	8.15	6.87	1.12	70	-1.0	Bill Bene
Brandon Hynick	112.0	4.58	2.97	1.69	65	-1.3	Jared Gothreaux
Barry Enright	131.7	5.13	3.62	1.85	61	-2.1	Giovanni Carrara

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.