2014 ZiPS Projections – San Francisco Giants

After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the San Francisco Giants. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Oakland / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / San Diego / Seattle / St. Louis / Tampa Bay / Texas / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
A haphazard inspection of the 29 ZiPS posts to have preceded this one reveals that only one field player (Mike Trout, at 9.5) is projected to produce as many wins in 2014 as Buster Posey. Andrew McCutchen also crosses the six-win threshold. Everyone else: less than that. Offensively, Posey has demonstrated excellent control of the strike zone and also power on contact. Defensively, he plays a difficult position and plays it well. That’s an ideal player, more or less.

Not entirely like Buster Posey is free-agent acquisition and probable left fielder Michael Morse. Other people smarter than the present author have questioned the wisdom of the Morse signing for the Giants. Germane to this post is that ZiPS renders objectively the reasons for those questions. Morse has one skill, his raw power, nor is ZiPS even particularly confident about that: the .162 mark projected here would only be fourth on the club, not much greater than the figures assigned to Roger Kieschnick and Brett Pill.

Pitchers
The starting pitchers in the depth-chart graphic below are arranged not in order of expected rotation slot, but rather by projected WAR according to ZiPS. They also include just the five pitchers most likely to begin the season in the rotation. Were that latter caveat removed, however, Ryan Vogelsong would be omitted from the list, replaced by either Edwin Escobar or Clayton Blackburn. Of note, also: after outperforming his defense-independent figures by three wins between 2011 and -12, Vogelsong’s runs-allowed WAR actually underperformed his traditional one this past year by 1.2 wins.

By both park-adjusted FIP and park-adjusted ERA, the Giants bullpen was one of the majors’ worst five last season. Given the relative paucity of innings thrown by relievers and the other vagaries associated with them, that sort of unfortunate achievement is prone to positive regression. In the case of the Giants, however, ZiPS isn’t particularly optimistic about considerable improvement. Beyond Sergio Romo and maybe Javier Lopez, much of the unit is expected to hover around a league-average ERA. Fine in a vacuum, that, but even average relievers generally outperform starters by about a run of ERA.

Bench/Prospects
Neither shortstop Ehire Adrianza nor catcher Andrew Susac are considered elite prospects — not even within the system, really, as their omission from the top 10 of both Marc Hulet’s and Baseball America’s organizational lists suggests. That said, their projections here — and also those produced by Steamer, as well — would seem to indicate that they’re skilled enough to contribute in some capacity at the major-league level. In fact, the Giants have a number of these sorts. Gary Brown, Adam Duvall, Joe Panik: all three of them are projected to record figures somewhere between replacement-level and average.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Giants, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Buster Posey	R	27	C	583	71	150	31	2	18	83	3	1
Pablo Sandoval	B	27	3B	555	64	140	28	3	17	81	1	1
Brandon Belt	L	26	1B	562	73	130	31	4	16	70	9	4
Hunter Pence	R	31	RF	665	87	161	30	4	20	93	12	3
Brandon Crawford	L	27	SS	500	53	108	22	4	7	46	3	3
Marco Scutaro	R	38	2B	545	65	139	23	4	4	44	4	1
Angel Pagan	B	32	CF	508	69	124	25	7	6	47	19	6
Andrew Susac	R	24	C	429	45	81	14	2	5	33	1	1
Ehire Adrianza	B	24	SS	512	52	102	22	5	3	39	11	5
Gregor Blanco	L	30	CF	441	52	92	15	5	4	33	17	6
Andres Torres	B	35	CF	269	34	55	14	3	3	21	9	3
Adam Duvall	R	25	3B	508	55	103	21	4	13	55	3	2
Joe Panik	L	23	2B	621	70	141	26	4	4	54	7	4
Hector Sanchez	B	24	C	327	29	76	16	0	6	47	0	1
Gary Brown	R	25	CF	573	67	122	25	5	7	54	19	12
Brett Pill	R	29	1B	483	56	120	26	2	13	63	3	2
Joaquin Arias	R	29	3B	311	30	76	12	3	3	28	3	1
Brandon Hicks	R	28	SS	411	44	76	16	2	11	39	6	3
Tony Abreu	B	29	2B	401	42	92	22	4	5	40	4	4
Mac Williamson	R	23	RF	460	57	99	19	1	10	44	5	1
Nick Noonan	L	25	2B	454	47	97	18	2	3	39	4	3
Guillermo Quiroz	R	32	C	255	24	50	12	1	4	24	0	0
Michael Morse	R	32	RF	427	48	100	20	1	14	47	0	1
Jeff Arnold	R	26	C	336	33	58	16	1	5	27	2	0
Juan Perez	R	27	RF	549	60	126	27	6	7	50	15	8
Mark Minicozzi	R	31	3B	460	50	94	19	0	6	39	2	1
Javier Herrera	R	29	LF	540	60	113	27	2	10	53	15	7
Roger Kieschnick	L	27	RF	441	49	88	19	6	10	46	3	3
Skyler Stromsmoe	B	30	SS	256	26	50	9	1	1	17	5	4
Todd Linden	B	34	1B	270	26	51	12	2	3	23	1	1
Chris Dominguez	R	27	3B	522	51	111	22	3	9	52	4	4
Angel Villalona	R	23	1B	540	55	105	23	0	14	53	0	0

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Buster Posey	583	9.9%	14.2%	.174	.316	.293	.367	.467	.357
Pablo Sandoval	555	7.7%	13.7%	.169	.296	.279	.335	.448	.333
Brandon Belt	562	10.9%	23.3%	.177	.327	.264	.349	.441	.343
Hunter Pence	665	7.2%	18.5%	.161	.299	.264	.319	.425	.325
Brandon Crawford	500	7.6%	19.6%	.113	.288	.238	.301	.351	.282
Marco Scutaro	545	6.6%	7.0%	.087	.297	.283	.332	.370	.307
Angel Pagan	508	6.9%	13.4%	.122	.298	.266	.316	.388	.308
Andrew Susac	429	9.6%	32.4%	.086	.318	.212	.294	.298	.270
Ehire Adrianza	512	7.6%	21.7%	.090	.287	.224	.290	.314	.266
Gregor Blanco	441	10.4%	20.6%	.095	.299	.238	.319	.333	.291
Andres Torres	269	10.0%	21.6%	.122	.294	.232	.315	.354	.298
Adam Duvall	508	6.3%	23.6%	.147	.269	.222	.281	.369	.284
Joe Panik	621	6.8%	12.7%	.081	.281	.249	.303	.330	.281
Hector Sanchez	327	4.9%	21.4%	.112	.302	.250	.291	.362	.284
Gary Brown	573	4.9%	21.5%	.107	.289	.232	.285	.339	.274
Brett Pill	483	3.7%	14.3%	.152	.284	.264	.297	.416	.308
Joaquin Arias	311	2.9%	13.8%	.091	.291	.259	.282	.350	.271
Brandon Hicks	411	7.1%	37.0%	.140	.302	.202	.263	.342	.269
Tony Abreu	401	3.0%	20.4%	.118	.294	.243	.271	.361	.271
Mac Williamson	460	5.4%	26.1%	.121	.303	.235	.293	.356	.291
Nick Noonan	454	6.4%	21.1%	.074	.292	.232	.282	.306	.256
Guillermo Quiroz	255	6.3%	25.5%	.113	.279	.216	.273	.329	.263
Michael Morse	427	5.6%	23.2%	.162	.303	.253	.304	.415	.312
Jeff Arnold	336	6.0%	36.9%	.107	.291	.187	.245	.294	.243
Juan Perez	549	3.6%	22.6%	.116	.304	.242	.275	.358	.276
Mark Minicozzi	460	7.4%	30.7%	.088	.320	.225	.287	.313	.270
Javier Herrera	540	6.5%	27.6%	.123	.305	.229	.285	.352	.282
Roger Kieschnick	441	7.0%	30.4%	.151	.294	.218	.272	.369	.278
Skyler Stromsmoe	256	7.4%	20.7%	.062	.278	.219	.286	.281	.252
Todd Linden	270	7.0%	30.0%	.102	.293	.206	.270	.308	.260
Chris Dominguez	522	3.1%	29.3%	.110	.301	.223	.253	.333	.257
Angel Villalona	540	3.3%	30.6%	.128	.270	.205	.239	.333	.251

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Buster Posey	583	6.6	138	5	6.5	Thurman Munson
Pablo Sandoval	555	5.6	123	-2	3.4	Jim Lefebvre
Brandon Belt	562	5.7	126	1	2.7	Dan Driessen
Hunter Pence	665	5.1	112	0	2.6	Gary Ward
Brandon Crawford	500	3.7	87	6	2.2	Chris Gomez
Marco Scutaro	545	4.7	102	-3	2.2	Mark Grudzielanek
Angel Pagan	508	4.7	102	-2	2.1	Mookie Wilson
Andrew Susac	429	3.0	72	1	1.3	Ray Corbett
Ehire Adrianza	512	3.2	74	3	1.3	Manuel Francois
Gregor Blanco	441	3.9	89	-1	1.3	Alex Cole
Andres Torres	269	4.1	95	3	1.3	Mitch Webster
Adam Duvall	508	3.6	85	0	1.2	Clay Bellinger
Joe Panik	621	3.6	83	-2	1.1	Tim Harkrider
Hector Sanchez	327	3.7	87	-2	1.1	Joe Oliver
Gary Brown	573	3.3	79	2	1.0	Chris Sheff
Brett Pill	483	4.5	103	0	0.8	Ron Coomer
Joaquin Arias	311	3.6	81	2	0.7	Francisco Matos
Brandon Hicks	411	3.1	73	-2	0.6	Seth Bynum
Tony Abreu	401	3.4	80	0	0.5	Jose Olmeda
Mac Williamson	460	3.8	86	-1	0.4	Wil Culmer
Nick Noonan	454	3.0	70	3	0.4	Jack Hannahan
Guillermo Quiroz	255	3.1	73	-3	0.3	George Mitterwald
Michael Morse	427	4.5	105	-9	0.2	Dan Ford
Jeff Arnold	336	2.5	54	1	0.2	Francisco Morales
Juan Perez	549	3.5	81	2	0.1	Alexis Gomez
Mark Minicozzi	460	3.1	73	-3	0.1	Chris Saunders
Javier Herrera	540	3.5	83	-2	0.0	Justin Ruggiano
Roger Kieschnick	441	3.4	83	0	-0.1	Andy Tomberlin
Skyler Stromsmoe	256	2.6	64	-4	-0.3	Doug Baker
Todd Linden	270	2.8	66	0	-0.7	Dann Howitt
Chris Dominguez	522	2.8	67	-6	-0.7	Greg Porter
Angel Villalona	540	2.7	63	-5	-2.3	Jim Scharrer

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Madison Bumgarner	L	24	32	32	204.7	196	54	17	167	70	65
Matt Cain	R	29	30	30	191.7	164	51	18	165	73	68
Tim Hudson	R	38	25	25	164.7	126	46	10	153	64	60
Tim Lincecum	R	30	29	29	180.0	177	71	17	162	81	76
Edwin Escobar	L	22	25	24	133.0	107	37	11	126	57	53
Clayton Blackburn	R	21	23	23	133.0	104	33	13	131	59	55
Sergio Romo	R	31	63	0	52.7	58	11	4	42	15	14
Ryan Vogelsong	R	36	24	23	134.3	98	45	14	134	64	60
Kyle Crick	R	21	19	19	84.7	82	61	4	72	39	36
Chris Heston	R	26	21	21	122.7	86	45	10	123	59	55
Yusmeiro Petit	R	29	20	20	116.3	88	28	13	119	57	53
Ty Blach	L	23	22	20	126.7	86	40	12	130	62	58
Javier Lopez	L	36	63	0	37.0	31	14	2	33	14	13
Josh Osich	L	25	47	0	56.0	47	20	4	51	22	21
Adalberto Mejia	L	21	22	16	94.3	63	28	10	97	47	44
Derek Law	R	23	43	0	62.3	62	23	6	55	26	24
Jean Machi	R	32	59	0	62.3	48	18	4	59	26	24
Santiago Casilla	R	33	56	0	49.7	41	22	4	44	20	19
Jose De Paula	L	26	20	18	92.7	52	31	7	99	47	44
Brett Bochy	R	26	44	0	51.7	47	17	4	46	21	20
Heath Hembree	R	25	59	0	56.3	53	24	5	50	24	22
Jeremy Affeldt	L	35	49	0	44.0	35	18	3	40	18	17
George Kontos	R	29	67	0	75.3	62	21	7	72	32	30
Dontrelle Willis	L	32	9	8	44.3	30	19	4	45	22	21
Hunter Strickland	R	25	45	0	47.0	36	15	4	45	20	19
Jake Dunning	R	25	57	0	73.3	50	24	5	71	32	30
Kendry Flores	R	22	18	17	100.0	65	19	15	106	52	49
Juan Gutierrez	R	30	35	0	38.0	33	14	4	36	17	16
Jose Casilla	R	25	33	1	50.7	27	15	4	52	24	22
Sandy Rosario	R	28	54	0	58.0	41	23	4	57	27	25
Kameron Loe	R	32	55	5	78.7	47	23	8	83	39	36
Guillermo Moscoso	R	30	31	20	130.0	98	58	17	126	70	65
Mason Tobin	R	26	22	0	25.0	15	13	2	26	14	13
Shane Loux	R	34	20	9	67.7	28	22	7	75	37	35
Mike Kickham	L	25	27	23	125.3	94	57	13	127	68	64
Rafael Dolis	R	26	40	0	46.0	29	22	3	46	24	22
Erik Cordier	R	28	31	6	54.0	41	38	5	54	31	29
Dan Runzler	L	29	46	3	54.3	44	37	5	52	30	28
Barry Zito	L	36	24	21	117.0	74	45	14	127	66	62
Adam Reifer	R	28	32	0	36.3	24	22	4	37	21	20
Mitch Lively	R	28	39	9	87.7	58	46	9	89	49	46
Steve Edlefsen	R	29	48	0	53.7	34	40	5	56	33	31
Jason Berken	R	30	30	21	123.3	67	52	15	141	76	71

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Madison Bumgarner	204.7	835	23.5%	6.5%	.267	2.86	3.01	80	84
Matt Cain	191.7	791	20.7%	6.4%	.267	3.19	3.43	89	96
Tim Hudson	164.7	693	18.2%	6.6%	.283	3.28	3.19	92	89
Tim Lincecum	180.0	773	22.9%	9.2%	.288	3.80	3.50	106	98
Edwin Escobar	133.0	562	19.0%	6.6%	.288	3.59	3.52	100	98
Clayton Blackburn	133.0	563	18.5%	5.9%	.291	3.72	3.67	104	102
Sergio Romo	52.7	211	27.5%	5.2%	.277	2.39	2.41	67	67
Ryan Vogelsong	134.3	582	16.8%	7.7%	.286	4.02	4.00	112	112
Kyle Crick	84.7	387	21.2%	15.8%	.290	3.83	4.11	107	115
Chris Heston	122.7	536	16.0%	8.4%	.291	4.04	3.96	113	111
Yusmeiro Petit	116.3	496	17.7%	5.6%	.293	4.10	3.85	114	107
Ty Blach	126.7	550	15.6%	7.3%	.291	4.12	4.04	115	113
Javier Lopez	37.0	158	19.6%	8.9%	.282	3.16	2.98	88	83
Josh Osich	56.0	239	19.7%	8.4%	.285	3.37	3.49	94	97
Adalberto Mejia	94.3	408	15.4%	6.9%	.289	4.20	4.18	117	117
Derek Law	62.3	265	23.4%	8.7%	.288	3.47	3.52	97	98
Jean Machi	62.3	264	18.2%	6.8%	.287	3.47	3.22	97	90
Santiago Casilla	49.7	215	19.1%	10.2%	.274	3.44	3.66	96	102
Jose De Paula	92.7	408	12.7%	7.6%	.295	4.27	4.11	119	115
Brett Bochy	51.7	218	21.5%	7.8%	.286	3.48	3.35	97	93
Heath Hembree	56.3	243	21.8%	9.9%	.285	3.51	3.77	98	105
Jeremy Affeldt	44.0	190	18.4%	9.5%	.282	3.48	3.58	97	100
George Kontos	75.3	319	19.4%	6.6%	.288	3.58	3.54	100	99
Dontrelle Willis	44.3	197	15.2%	9.6%	.289	4.26	4.23	119	118
Hunter Strickland	47.0	201	17.9%	7.5%	.285	3.64	3.65	102	102
Jake Dunning	73.3	315	15.9%	7.6%	.286	3.68	3.69	103	103
Kendry Flores	100.0	425	15.3%	4.5%	.285	4.41	4.46	123	124
Juan Gutierrez	38.0	164	20.1%	8.5%	.286	3.79	3.79	106	106
Jose Casilla	50.7	219	12.3%	6.8%	.282	3.91	4.08	109	114
Sandy Rosario	58.0	254	16.1%	9.1%	.288	3.88	3.68	108	103
Kameron Loe	78.7	342	13.7%	6.7%	.287	4.12	4.06	115	113
Guillermo Moscoso	130.0	574	17.1%	10.1%	.277	4.50	4.70	126	131
Mason Tobin	25.0	114	13.2%	11.4%	.293	4.68	4.70	131	131
Shane Loux	67.7	300	9.3%	7.3%	.284	4.66	4.73	130	132
Mike Kickham	125.3	560	16.8%	10.2%	.293	4.60	4.41	128	123
Rafael Dolis	46.0	206	14.1%	10.7%	.289	4.30	4.21	120	118
Erik Cordier	54.0	254	16.1%	15.0%	.295	4.83	5.02	135	140
Dan Runzler	54.3	252	17.5%	14.7%	.289	4.64	4.68	130	131
Barry Zito	117.0	523	14.1%	8.6%	.292	4.77	4.53	133	126
Adam Reifer	36.3	168	14.3%	13.1%	.285	4.95	5.15	138	144
Mitch Lively	87.7	398	14.6%	11.6%	.287	4.72	4.85	132	135
Steve Edlefsen	53.7	257	13.2%	15.6%	.291	5.20	5.40	145	151
Jason Berken	123.3	563	11.9%	9.2%	.299	5.18	4.99	145	139

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Madison Bumgarner	204.7	8.62	2.37	0.75	120	3.8	Eric Milton
Matt Cain	191.7	7.70	2.39	0.85	108	2.8	Mark Portugal
Tim Hudson	164.7	6.89	2.51	0.55	105	2.2	Tom Candiotti
Tim Lincecum	180.0	8.85	3.55	0.85	90	1.3	Jason Bere
Edwin Escobar	133.0	7.24	2.50	0.74	96	1.3	Joe Kennedy
Clayton Blackburn	133.0	7.04	2.23	0.88	92	1.1	Joe Blanton
Sergio Romo	52.7	9.91	1.88	0.68	144	0.8	Rafael Betancourt
Ryan Vogelsong	134.3	6.57	3.02	0.94	85	0.6	Bobby Witt
Kyle Crick	84.7	8.71	6.48	0.43	90	0.6	Roger Pavlik
Chris Heston	122.7	6.31	3.30	0.73	85	0.5	Steve Kelly
Yusmeiro Petit	116.3	6.81	2.17	1.01	84	0.4	Oil Can Boyd
Ty Blach	126.7	6.11	2.84	0.85	83	0.4	Hilly Hathaway
Javier Lopez	37.0	7.54	3.41	0.49	109	0.2	Vic Darensbourg
Josh Osich	56.0	7.55	3.21	0.64	102	0.2	Ray Beasley
Adalberto Mejia	94.3	6.01	2.67	0.95	82	0.2	Matt Blank
Derek Law	62.3	8.96	3.32	0.87	99	0.1	Andy Ghelfi
Jean Machi	62.3	6.93	2.60	0.58	99	0.1	Terry Leach
Santiago Casilla	49.7	7.42	3.98	0.72	100	0.1	Brian Boehringer
Jose De Paula	92.7	5.05	3.01	0.68	80	0.1	Lee Guetterman
Brett Bochy	51.7	8.18	2.96	0.70	99	0.1	Paul Mancuso
Heath Hembree	56.3	8.47	3.84	0.80	98	0.1	Tony Blasucci
Jeremy Affeldt	44.0	7.16	3.68	0.61	99	0.1	Vic Darensbourg
George Kontos	75.3	7.41	2.51	0.84	96	0.1	Don Cooper
Dontrelle Willis	44.3	6.09	3.86	0.81	81	0.1	Jim Abbott
Hunter Strickland	47.0	6.89	2.87	0.77	94	0.0	Jeff Tam
Jake Dunning	73.3	6.14	2.95	0.61	93	0.0	Todd Williams
Kendry Flores	100.0	5.85	1.71	1.35	78	0.0	Dave Geeve
Juan Gutierrez	38.0	7.82	3.32	0.95	91	-0.1	Nate Field
Jose Casilla	50.7	4.79	2.66	0.71	88	-0.1	Pedro Borbon
Sandy Rosario	58.0	6.36	3.57	0.62	89	-0.2	Mike Gardner
Kameron Loe	78.7	5.37	2.63	0.91	83	-0.2	Danny Graves
Guillermo Moscoso	130.0	6.78	4.02	1.18	76	-0.3	John Leister
Mason Tobin	25.0	5.40	4.68	0.72	73	-0.3	Tommy Moore
Shane Loux	67.7	3.72	2.92	0.93	74	-0.3	Jose Santiago
Mike Kickham	125.3	6.75	4.09	0.93	75	-0.3	Derek Root
Rafael Dolis	46.0	5.67	4.30	0.59	80	-0.4	Ken Wright
Erik Cordier	54.0	6.83	6.33	0.83	71	-0.5	Ryan Baker
Dan Runzler	54.3	7.29	6.13	0.83	74	-0.5	Brian Shackelford
Barry Zito	117.0	5.69	3.46	1.08	72	-0.6	Jim Deshaies
Adam Reifer	36.3	5.95	5.45	0.99	69	-0.6	Brad Tweedlie
Mitch Lively	87.7	5.95	4.72	0.92	73	-0.6	Jarod Juelsgaard
Steve Edlefsen	53.7	5.70	6.70	0.84	66	-1.0	Marty McLeary
Jason Berken	123.3	4.89	3.80	1.09	66	-1.3	Giovanni Carrara

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.