2014 ZiPS Projections – San Francisco Giants by Carson Cistulli February 7, 2014 After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the San Francisco Giants. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski. Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Oakland / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / San Diego / Seattle / St. Louis / Tampa Bay / Texas / Toronto / Washington. Batters A haphazard inspection of the 29 ZiPS posts to have preceded this one reveals that only one field player (Mike Trout, at 9.5) is projected to produce as many wins in 2014 as Buster Posey. Andrew McCutchen also crosses the six-win threshold. Everyone else: less than that. Offensively, Posey has demonstrated excellent control of the strike zone and also power on contact. Defensively, he plays a difficult position and plays it well. That’s an ideal player, more or less. Not entirely like Buster Posey is free-agent acquisition and probable left fielder Michael Morse. Other people smarter than the present author have questioned the wisdom of the Morse signing for the Giants. Germane to this post is that ZiPS renders objectively the reasons for those questions. Morse has one skill, his raw power, nor is ZiPS even particularly confident about that: the .162 mark projected here would only be fourth on the club, not much greater than the figures assigned to Roger Kieschnick and Brett Pill. Pitchers The starting pitchers in the depth-chart graphic below are arranged not in order of expected rotation slot, but rather by projected WAR according to ZiPS. They also include just the five pitchers most likely to begin the season in the rotation. Were that latter caveat removed, however, Ryan Vogelsong would be omitted from the list, replaced by either Edwin Escobar or Clayton Blackburn. Of note, also: after outperforming his defense-independent figures by three wins between 2011 and -12, Vogelsong’s runs-allowed WAR actually underperformed his traditional one this past year by 1.2 wins. By both park-adjusted FIP and park-adjusted ERA, the Giants bullpen was one of the majors’ worst five last season. Given the relative paucity of innings thrown by relievers and the other vagaries associated with them, that sort of unfortunate achievement is prone to positive regression. In the case of the Giants, however, ZiPS isn’t particularly optimistic about considerable improvement. Beyond Sergio Romo and maybe Javier Lopez, much of the unit is expected to hover around a league-average ERA. Fine in a vacuum, that, but even average relievers generally outperform starters by about a run of ERA. Bench/Prospects Neither shortstop Ehire Adrianza nor catcher Andrew Susac are considered elite prospects — not even within the system, really, as their omission from the top 10 of both Marc Hulet’s and Baseball America’s organizational lists suggests. That said, their projections here — and also those produced by Steamer, as well — would seem to indicate that they’re skilled enough to contribute in some capacity at the major-league level. In fact, the Giants have a number of these sorts. Gary Brown, Adam Duvall, Joe Panik: all three of them are projected to record figures somewhere between replacement-level and average. Depth Chart Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Giants, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image. Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning. Batters, Counting Stats Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS Buster Posey R 27 C 583 71 150 31 2 18 83 3 1 Pablo Sandoval B 27 3B 555 64 140 28 3 17 81 1 1 Brandon Belt L 26 1B 562 73 130 31 4 16 70 9 4 Hunter Pence R 31 RF 665 87 161 30 4 20 93 12 3 Brandon Crawford L 27 SS 500 53 108 22 4 7 46 3 3 Marco Scutaro R 38 2B 545 65 139 23 4 4 44 4 1 Angel Pagan B 32 CF 508 69 124 25 7 6 47 19 6 Andrew Susac R 24 C 429 45 81 14 2 5 33 1 1 Ehire Adrianza B 24 SS 512 52 102 22 5 3 39 11 5 Gregor Blanco L 30 CF 441 52 92 15 5 4 33 17 6 Andres Torres B 35 CF 269 34 55 14 3 3 21 9 3 Adam Duvall R 25 3B 508 55 103 21 4 13 55 3 2 Joe Panik L 23 2B 621 70 141 26 4 4 54 7 4 Hector Sanchez B 24 C 327 29 76 16 0 6 47 0 1 Gary Brown R 25 CF 573 67 122 25 5 7 54 19 12 Brett Pill R 29 1B 483 56 120 26 2 13 63 3 2 Joaquin Arias R 29 3B 311 30 76 12 3 3 28 3 1 Brandon Hicks R 28 SS 411 44 76 16 2 11 39 6 3 Tony Abreu B 29 2B 401 42 92 22 4 5 40 4 4 Mac Williamson R 23 RF 460 57 99 19 1 10 44 5 1 Nick Noonan L 25 2B 454 47 97 18 2 3 39 4 3 Guillermo Quiroz R 32 C 255 24 50 12 1 4 24 0 0 Michael Morse R 32 RF 427 48 100 20 1 14 47 0 1 Jeff Arnold R 26 C 336 33 58 16 1 5 27 2 0 Juan Perez R 27 RF 549 60 126 27 6 7 50 15 8 Mark Minicozzi R 31 3B 460 50 94 19 0 6 39 2 1 Javier Herrera R 29 LF 540 60 113 27 2 10 53 15 7 Roger Kieschnick L 27 RF 441 49 88 19 6 10 46 3 3 Skyler Stromsmoe B 30 SS 256 26 50 9 1 1 17 5 4 Todd Linden B 34 1B 270 26 51 12 2 3 23 1 1 Chris Dominguez R 27 3B 522 51 111 22 3 9 52 4 4 Angel Villalona R 23 1B 540 55 105 23 0 14 53 0 0 *** Batters, Rates and Averages Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP BA OBP SLG wOBA Buster Posey 583 9.9% 14.2% .174 .316 .293 .367 .467 .357 Pablo Sandoval 555 7.7% 13.7% .169 .296 .279 .335 .448 .333 Brandon Belt 562 10.9% 23.3% .177 .327 .264 .349 .441 .343 Hunter Pence 665 7.2% 18.5% .161 .299 .264 .319 .425 .325 Brandon Crawford 500 7.6% 19.6% .113 .288 .238 .301 .351 .282 Marco Scutaro 545 6.6% 7.0% .087 .297 .283 .332 .370 .307 Angel Pagan 508 6.9% 13.4% .122 .298 .266 .316 .388 .308 Andrew Susac 429 9.6% 32.4% .086 .318 .212 .294 .298 .270 Ehire Adrianza 512 7.6% 21.7% .090 .287 .224 .290 .314 .266 Gregor Blanco 441 10.4% 20.6% .095 .299 .238 .319 .333 .291 Andres Torres 269 10.0% 21.6% .122 .294 .232 .315 .354 .298 Adam Duvall 508 6.3% 23.6% .147 .269 .222 .281 .369 .284 Joe Panik 621 6.8% 12.7% .081 .281 .249 .303 .330 .281 Hector Sanchez 327 4.9% 21.4% .112 .302 .250 .291 .362 .284 Gary Brown 573 4.9% 21.5% .107 .289 .232 .285 .339 .274 Brett Pill 483 3.7% 14.3% .152 .284 .264 .297 .416 .308 Joaquin Arias 311 2.9% 13.8% .091 .291 .259 .282 .350 .271 Brandon Hicks 411 7.1% 37.0% .140 .302 .202 .263 .342 .269 Tony Abreu 401 3.0% 20.4% .118 .294 .243 .271 .361 .271 Mac Williamson 460 5.4% 26.1% .121 .303 .235 .293 .356 .291 Nick Noonan 454 6.4% 21.1% .074 .292 .232 .282 .306 .256 Guillermo Quiroz 255 6.3% 25.5% .113 .279 .216 .273 .329 .263 Michael Morse 427 5.6% 23.2% .162 .303 .253 .304 .415 .312 Jeff Arnold 336 6.0% 36.9% .107 .291 .187 .245 .294 .243 Juan Perez 549 3.6% 22.6% .116 .304 .242 .275 .358 .276 Mark Minicozzi 460 7.4% 30.7% .088 .320 .225 .287 .313 .270 Javier Herrera 540 6.5% 27.6% .123 .305 .229 .285 .352 .282 Roger Kieschnick 441 7.0% 30.4% .151 .294 .218 .272 .369 .278 Skyler Stromsmoe 256 7.4% 20.7% .062 .278 .219 .286 .281 .252 Todd Linden 270 7.0% 30.0% .102 .293 .206 .270 .308 .260 Chris Dominguez 522 3.1% 29.3% .110 .301 .223 .253 .333 .257 Angel Villalona 540 3.3% 30.6% .128 .270 .205 .239 .333 .251 *** Batters, Assorted Other Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp Buster Posey 583 6.6 138 5 6.5 Thurman Munson Pablo Sandoval 555 5.6 123 -2 3.4 Jim Lefebvre Brandon Belt 562 5.7 126 1 2.7 Dan Driessen Hunter Pence 665 5.1 112 0 2.6 Gary Ward Brandon Crawford 500 3.7 87 6 2.2 Chris Gomez Marco Scutaro 545 4.7 102 -3 2.2 Mark Grudzielanek Angel Pagan 508 4.7 102 -2 2.1 Mookie Wilson Andrew Susac 429 3.0 72 1 1.3 Ray Corbett Ehire Adrianza 512 3.2 74 3 1.3 Manuel Francois Gregor Blanco 441 3.9 89 -1 1.3 Alex Cole Andres Torres 269 4.1 95 3 1.3 Mitch Webster Adam Duvall 508 3.6 85 0 1.2 Clay Bellinger Joe Panik 621 3.6 83 -2 1.1 Tim Harkrider Hector Sanchez 327 3.7 87 -2 1.1 Joe Oliver Gary Brown 573 3.3 79 2 1.0 Chris Sheff Brett Pill 483 4.5 103 0 0.8 Ron Coomer Joaquin Arias 311 3.6 81 2 0.7 Francisco Matos Brandon Hicks 411 3.1 73 -2 0.6 Seth Bynum Tony Abreu 401 3.4 80 0 0.5 Jose Olmeda Mac Williamson 460 3.8 86 -1 0.4 Wil Culmer Nick Noonan 454 3.0 70 3 0.4 Jack Hannahan Guillermo Quiroz 255 3.1 73 -3 0.3 George Mitterwald Michael Morse 427 4.5 105 -9 0.2 Dan Ford Jeff Arnold 336 2.5 54 1 0.2 Francisco Morales Juan Perez 549 3.5 81 2 0.1 Alexis Gomez Mark Minicozzi 460 3.1 73 -3 0.1 Chris Saunders Javier Herrera 540 3.5 83 -2 0.0 Justin Ruggiano Roger Kieschnick 441 3.4 83 0 -0.1 Andy Tomberlin Skyler Stromsmoe 256 2.6 64 -4 -0.3 Doug Baker Todd Linden 270 2.8 66 0 -0.7 Dann Howitt Chris Dominguez 522 2.8 67 -6 -0.7 Greg Porter Angel Villalona 540 2.7 63 -5 -2.3 Jim Scharrer *** Pitchers, Counting Stats Player T Age G GS IP SO BB HR H R ER Madison Bumgarner L 24 32 32 204.7 196 54 17 167 70 65 Matt Cain R 29 30 30 191.7 164 51 18 165 73 68 Tim Hudson R 38 25 25 164.7 126 46 10 153 64 60 Tim Lincecum R 30 29 29 180.0 177 71 17 162 81 76 Edwin Escobar L 22 25 24 133.0 107 37 11 126 57 53 Clayton Blackburn R 21 23 23 133.0 104 33 13 131 59 55 Sergio Romo R 31 63 0 52.7 58 11 4 42 15 14 Ryan Vogelsong R 36 24 23 134.3 98 45 14 134 64 60 Kyle Crick R 21 19 19 84.7 82 61 4 72 39 36 Chris Heston R 26 21 21 122.7 86 45 10 123 59 55 Yusmeiro Petit R 29 20 20 116.3 88 28 13 119 57 53 Ty Blach L 23 22 20 126.7 86 40 12 130 62 58 Javier Lopez L 36 63 0 37.0 31 14 2 33 14 13 Josh Osich L 25 47 0 56.0 47 20 4 51 22 21 Adalberto Mejia L 21 22 16 94.3 63 28 10 97 47 44 Derek Law R 23 43 0 62.3 62 23 6 55 26 24 Jean Machi R 32 59 0 62.3 48 18 4 59 26 24 Santiago Casilla R 33 56 0 49.7 41 22 4 44 20 19 Jose De Paula L 26 20 18 92.7 52 31 7 99 47 44 Brett Bochy R 26 44 0 51.7 47 17 4 46 21 20 Heath Hembree R 25 59 0 56.3 53 24 5 50 24 22 Jeremy Affeldt L 35 49 0 44.0 35 18 3 40 18 17 George Kontos R 29 67 0 75.3 62 21 7 72 32 30 Dontrelle Willis L 32 9 8 44.3 30 19 4 45 22 21 Hunter Strickland R 25 45 0 47.0 36 15 4 45 20 19 Jake Dunning R 25 57 0 73.3 50 24 5 71 32 30 Kendry Flores R 22 18 17 100.0 65 19 15 106 52 49 Juan Gutierrez R 30 35 0 38.0 33 14 4 36 17 16 Jose Casilla R 25 33 1 50.7 27 15 4 52 24 22 Sandy Rosario R 28 54 0 58.0 41 23 4 57 27 25 Kameron Loe R 32 55 5 78.7 47 23 8 83 39 36 Guillermo Moscoso R 30 31 20 130.0 98 58 17 126 70 65 Mason Tobin R 26 22 0 25.0 15 13 2 26 14 13 Shane Loux R 34 20 9 67.7 28 22 7 75 37 35 Mike Kickham L 25 27 23 125.3 94 57 13 127 68 64 Rafael Dolis R 26 40 0 46.0 29 22 3 46 24 22 Erik Cordier R 28 31 6 54.0 41 38 5 54 31 29 Dan Runzler L 29 46 3 54.3 44 37 5 52 30 28 Barry Zito L 36 24 21 117.0 74 45 14 127 66 62 Adam Reifer R 28 32 0 36.3 24 22 4 37 21 20 Mitch Lively R 28 39 9 87.7 58 46 9 89 49 46 Steve Edlefsen R 29 48 0 53.7 34 40 5 56 33 31 Jason Berken R 30 30 21 123.3 67 52 15 141 76 71 *** Pitchers, Rates and Averages Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP- Madison Bumgarner 204.7 835 23.5% 6.5% .267 2.86 3.01 80 84 Matt Cain 191.7 791 20.7% 6.4% .267 3.19 3.43 89 96 Tim Hudson 164.7 693 18.2% 6.6% .283 3.28 3.19 92 89 Tim Lincecum 180.0 773 22.9% 9.2% .288 3.80 3.50 106 98 Edwin Escobar 133.0 562 19.0% 6.6% .288 3.59 3.52 100 98 Clayton Blackburn 133.0 563 18.5% 5.9% .291 3.72 3.67 104 102 Sergio Romo 52.7 211 27.5% 5.2% .277 2.39 2.41 67 67 Ryan Vogelsong 134.3 582 16.8% 7.7% .286 4.02 4.00 112 112 Kyle Crick 84.7 387 21.2% 15.8% .290 3.83 4.11 107 115 Chris Heston 122.7 536 16.0% 8.4% .291 4.04 3.96 113 111 Yusmeiro Petit 116.3 496 17.7% 5.6% .293 4.10 3.85 114 107 Ty Blach 126.7 550 15.6% 7.3% .291 4.12 4.04 115 113 Javier Lopez 37.0 158 19.6% 8.9% .282 3.16 2.98 88 83 Josh Osich 56.0 239 19.7% 8.4% .285 3.37 3.49 94 97 Adalberto Mejia 94.3 408 15.4% 6.9% .289 4.20 4.18 117 117 Derek Law 62.3 265 23.4% 8.7% .288 3.47 3.52 97 98 Jean Machi 62.3 264 18.2% 6.8% .287 3.47 3.22 97 90 Santiago Casilla 49.7 215 19.1% 10.2% .274 3.44 3.66 96 102 Jose De Paula 92.7 408 12.7% 7.6% .295 4.27 4.11 119 115 Brett Bochy 51.7 218 21.5% 7.8% .286 3.48 3.35 97 93 Heath Hembree 56.3 243 21.8% 9.9% .285 3.51 3.77 98 105 Jeremy Affeldt 44.0 190 18.4% 9.5% .282 3.48 3.58 97 100 George Kontos 75.3 319 19.4% 6.6% .288 3.58 3.54 100 99 Dontrelle Willis 44.3 197 15.2% 9.6% .289 4.26 4.23 119 118 Hunter Strickland 47.0 201 17.9% 7.5% .285 3.64 3.65 102 102 Jake Dunning 73.3 315 15.9% 7.6% .286 3.68 3.69 103 103 Kendry Flores 100.0 425 15.3% 4.5% .285 4.41 4.46 123 124 Juan Gutierrez 38.0 164 20.1% 8.5% .286 3.79 3.79 106 106 Jose Casilla 50.7 219 12.3% 6.8% .282 3.91 4.08 109 114 Sandy Rosario 58.0 254 16.1% 9.1% .288 3.88 3.68 108 103 Kameron Loe 78.7 342 13.7% 6.7% .287 4.12 4.06 115 113 Guillermo Moscoso 130.0 574 17.1% 10.1% .277 4.50 4.70 126 131 Mason Tobin 25.0 114 13.2% 11.4% .293 4.68 4.70 131 131 Shane Loux 67.7 300 9.3% 7.3% .284 4.66 4.73 130 132 Mike Kickham 125.3 560 16.8% 10.2% .293 4.60 4.41 128 123 Rafael Dolis 46.0 206 14.1% 10.7% .289 4.30 4.21 120 118 Erik Cordier 54.0 254 16.1% 15.0% .295 4.83 5.02 135 140 Dan Runzler 54.3 252 17.5% 14.7% .289 4.64 4.68 130 131 Barry Zito 117.0 523 14.1% 8.6% .292 4.77 4.53 133 126 Adam Reifer 36.3 168 14.3% 13.1% .285 4.95 5.15 138 144 Mitch Lively 87.7 398 14.6% 11.6% .287 4.72 4.85 132 135 Steve Edlefsen 53.7 257 13.2% 15.6% .291 5.20 5.40 145 151 Jason Berken 123.3 563 11.9% 9.2% .299 5.18 4.99 145 139 *** Pitchers, Assorted Other Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp Madison Bumgarner 204.7 8.62 2.37 0.75 120 3.8 Eric Milton Matt Cain 191.7 7.70 2.39 0.85 108 2.8 Mark Portugal Tim Hudson 164.7 6.89 2.51 0.55 105 2.2 Tom Candiotti Tim Lincecum 180.0 8.85 3.55 0.85 90 1.3 Jason Bere Edwin Escobar 133.0 7.24 2.50 0.74 96 1.3 Joe Kennedy Clayton Blackburn 133.0 7.04 2.23 0.88 92 1.1 Joe Blanton Sergio Romo 52.7 9.91 1.88 0.68 144 0.8 Rafael Betancourt Ryan Vogelsong 134.3 6.57 3.02 0.94 85 0.6 Bobby Witt Kyle Crick 84.7 8.71 6.48 0.43 90 0.6 Roger Pavlik Chris Heston 122.7 6.31 3.30 0.73 85 0.5 Steve Kelly Yusmeiro Petit 116.3 6.81 2.17 1.01 84 0.4 Oil Can Boyd Ty Blach 126.7 6.11 2.84 0.85 83 0.4 Hilly Hathaway Javier Lopez 37.0 7.54 3.41 0.49 109 0.2 Vic Darensbourg Josh Osich 56.0 7.55 3.21 0.64 102 0.2 Ray Beasley Adalberto Mejia 94.3 6.01 2.67 0.95 82 0.2 Matt Blank Derek Law 62.3 8.96 3.32 0.87 99 0.1 Andy Ghelfi Jean Machi 62.3 6.93 2.60 0.58 99 0.1 Terry Leach Santiago Casilla 49.7 7.42 3.98 0.72 100 0.1 Brian Boehringer Jose De Paula 92.7 5.05 3.01 0.68 80 0.1 Lee Guetterman Brett Bochy 51.7 8.18 2.96 0.70 99 0.1 Paul Mancuso Heath Hembree 56.3 8.47 3.84 0.80 98 0.1 Tony Blasucci Jeremy Affeldt 44.0 7.16 3.68 0.61 99 0.1 Vic Darensbourg George Kontos 75.3 7.41 2.51 0.84 96 0.1 Don Cooper Dontrelle Willis 44.3 6.09 3.86 0.81 81 0.1 Jim Abbott Hunter Strickland 47.0 6.89 2.87 0.77 94 0.0 Jeff Tam Jake Dunning 73.3 6.14 2.95 0.61 93 0.0 Todd Williams Kendry Flores 100.0 5.85 1.71 1.35 78 0.0 Dave Geeve Juan Gutierrez 38.0 7.82 3.32 0.95 91 -0.1 Nate Field Jose Casilla 50.7 4.79 2.66 0.71 88 -0.1 Pedro Borbon Sandy Rosario 58.0 6.36 3.57 0.62 89 -0.2 Mike Gardner Kameron Loe 78.7 5.37 2.63 0.91 83 -0.2 Danny Graves Guillermo Moscoso 130.0 6.78 4.02 1.18 76 -0.3 John Leister Mason Tobin 25.0 5.40 4.68 0.72 73 -0.3 Tommy Moore Shane Loux 67.7 3.72 2.92 0.93 74 -0.3 Jose Santiago Mike Kickham 125.3 6.75 4.09 0.93 75 -0.3 Derek Root Rafael Dolis 46.0 5.67 4.30 0.59 80 -0.4 Ken Wright Erik Cordier 54.0 6.83 6.33 0.83 71 -0.5 Ryan Baker Dan Runzler 54.3 7.29 6.13 0.83 74 -0.5 Brian Shackelford Barry Zito 117.0 5.69 3.46 1.08 72 -0.6 Jim Deshaies Adam Reifer 36.3 5.95 5.45 0.99 69 -0.6 Brad Tweedlie Mitch Lively 87.7 5.95 4.72 0.92 73 -0.6 Jarod Juelsgaard Steve Edlefsen 53.7 5.70 6.70 0.84 66 -1.0 Marty McLeary Jason Berken 123.3 4.89 3.80 1.09 66 -1.3 Giovanni Carrara *** Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.” Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.