Pitcher-on-Pitcher Violence, Ft. Clayton Richard

Look, there’s no way to begin this except with a little story. I don’t know how else I could get to the meat and keep you guys with me. From time to time, I like to play around with pitcher numbers when they’re facing other pitchers. It’s not super meaningful — little of my research is ever super meaningful — but it’s interesting to me, and it’s interesting that pitchers, at least some of the time, get to face hitters who are so tremendously worse than the rest of the guys in the lineup. It only makes sense to me to occasionally split those numbers apart.

Usually, I look at strikeouts. Strikeouts are the best indicator of dominance, at least over the smaller samples I generally encounter. I’ve written here before about how Gio Gonzalez one year put up some crazy strikeout numbers against pitchers in the National League. But something else that’s caught my eye a bunch of times is that I keep seeing the name ‘Wandy Rodriguez‘. As in, it seems like Rodriguez has been a strikeout machine against pitchers. Rodriguez has been a perfectly adequate starter, but I’ve never really thought of him as being unhittable, so his name stood out to me as slightly out of place. Eventually, this was something I knew I’d have to pursue.

This is one attempt at pursuit. I wanted to collect strikeout numbers against pitchers. I wanted to collect strikeout numbers against non-pitchers. Then I wanted to compare the numbers, to see which guys have been the most different. Anecdotally, it seemed to me like Rodriguez struck out a disproportionately high rate of pitchers, considering the rest of his body of work. I wanted to put this to the test, and see how Rodriguez stacks up against his peers. I basically looked into this for me, to sate my own curiosity, but hopefully you learn something. You probably won’t learn nothing.

Most of the research was conducted using the Baseball-Reference Play Index. I decided to isolate the 2008-2013 window, to cover the PITCHf/x era. As it turns out, I haven’t really done anything with PITCHf/x data, so the window seems arbitrary, but it is what it is and I’m not going back. I captured all the pitchers who have faced opposing pitchers at least 75 times. For each pitcher, I calculated the strikeout rate against pitchers, and I calculated the strikeout rate against non-pitchers. Then, for each strikeout rate, I calculated a z-score, which is the number of standard deviations away from the mean for the category. Finally, I subtracted one z-score from the other in order to see what I’d find. Everything I found is in the following table, which is enormous. There are 134 pitchers.

First, there’s the player. Then there are numbers against pitchers, and a z-score. Then there are numbers against non-pitchers, and a z-score. Then there’s the difference between the z-scores. This is the important column, which is why it’s last, because the last column is the important column. If this is confusing to you, I promise it’ll clear up when you see actual data. Let’s just paste that table now, in the order in which it’s ordered on my spreadsheet.

Player	pK	pBF	pK%	z	npK	npBF	npK%	z	z_diff
Clayton Richard	87	203	43%	1.2	393	3112	13%	-1.2	2.4
Derek Lowe	111	262	42%	1.1	483	3795	13%	-1.2	2.3
Wandy Rodriguez	156	318	49%	2.0	697	3883	18%	0.2	1.8
Chris Narveson	58	126	46%	1.6	256	1551	17%	-0.2	1.8
Aaron Cook	57	186	31%	-0.5	247	2799	9%	-2.2	1.7
Gio Gonzalez	67	122	55%	2.8	843	3852	22%	1.3	1.6
Chris Young	49	115	43%	1.1	211	1325	16%	-0.3	1.5
Eric Stults	46	125	37%	0.3	210	1588	13%	-1.1	1.4
Brandon Beachy	46	84	55%	2.8	229	1013	23%	1.5	1.3
Brett Myers	92	215	43%	1.2	514	3128	16%	-0.2	1.3
Joe Saunders	50	143	35%	0.1	595	4788	12%	-1.3	1.3
Ben Sheets	34	79	43%	1.2	243	1451	17%	-0.1	1.3
Ross Detwiler	47	137	34%	0.0	198	1618	12%	-1.3	1.3
Zach Duke	69	232	30%	-0.7	280	2754	10%	-1.9	1.2
Randy Wells	60	169	36%	0.1	285	2112	13%	-1.0	1.1
Nathan Eovaldi	31	84	37%	0.3	148	1039	14%	-0.8	1.1
Bronson Arroyo	130	377	34%	0.0	642	4810	13%	-1.0	1.0
Jason Marquis	78	247	32%	-0.4	398	3354	12%	-1.4	1.0
Jamie Moyer	52	158	33%	-0.2	264	2096	13%	-1.2	1.0
Trevor Cahill	47	126	37%	0.4	566	3806	15%	-0.6	1.0
Jeremy Hefner	28	75	37%	0.4	133	889	15%	-0.6	1.0
Jake Westbrook	57	185	31%	-0.5	344	2897	12%	-1.4	0.9
Marco Estrada	53	106	50%	2.2	328	1503	22%	1.3	0.9
Oliver Perez	45	97	46%	1.7	332	1660	20%	0.8	0.9
Joel Pineiro	34	114	30%	-0.7	306	2661	11%	-1.5	0.9
Paul Maholm	116	351	33%	-0.2	586	4321	14%	-1.0	0.8
Roy Oswalt	95	228	42%	1.0	587	3237	18%	0.3	0.7
Dave Bush	50	154	32%	-0.3	279	2079	13%	-1.0	0.7
Jeff Francis	47	145	32%	-0.3	344	2561	13%	-1.0	0.7
J.A. Happ	74	180	41%	0.9	496	2757	18%	0.2	0.7
Ryan Vogelsong	58	153	38%	0.5	306	1854	17%	-0.2	0.6
Jordan Zimmermann	83	205	40%	0.8	474	2653	18%	0.2	0.6
Barry Zito	107	316	34%	-0.1	549	3800	14%	-0.7	0.6
Jordan Lyles	29	86	34%	-0.1	230	1599	14%	-0.7	0.6
Tom Gorzelanny	67	164	41%	0.9	406	2243	18%	0.3	0.6
Kyle Lohse	104	327	32%	-0.4	525	3900	13%	-1.0	0.6
Braden Looper	35	130	27%	-1.1	173	1578	11%	-1.7	0.6
Mike Leake	68	204	33%	-0.2	379	2651	14%	-0.8	0.6
Mat Latos	116	255	45%	1.5	669	3243	21%	0.9	0.6
Craig Stammen	40	108	37%	0.3	271	1649	16%	-0.2	0.5
Carlos Villanueva	36	83	43%	1.2	500	2533	20%	0.7	0.5
Randy Wolf	108	313	35%	0.0	594	3910	15%	-0.5	0.5
Jeff Suppan	39	164	24%	-1.5	189	1953	10%	-2.0	0.5
Nelson Figueroa	28	79	35%	0.1	157	988	16%	-0.3	0.5
Cole Hamels	170	379	45%	1.4	1017	4827	21%	1.1	0.4
Charlie Morton	61	202	30%	-0.6	328	2426	14%	-1.0	0.4
Chris Volstad	68	231	29%	-0.7	374	2847	13%	-1.1	0.4
Scott Olsen	33	116	28%	-0.9	175	1385	13%	-1.2	0.4
Aaron Harang	104	287	36%	0.2	641	3844	17%	-0.1	0.4
Zack Greinke	67	142	47%	1.8	1088	4843	22%	1.4	0.3
Tim Hudson	80	249	32%	-0.3	529	3591	15%	-0.7	0.3
Jeff Karstens	46	165	28%	-0.9	263	2091	13%	-1.2	0.3
Wade Miley	44	128	34%	0.0	272	1706	16%	-0.3	0.3
Johan Santana	82	206	40%	0.7	525	2775	19%	0.5	0.3
Mike Pelfrey	68	253	27%	-1.1	481	3917	12%	-1.3	0.2
John Lannan	67	273	25%	-1.4	371	3308	11%	-1.6	0.2
Vance Worley	32	89	36%	0.2	231	1339	17%	0.0	0.2
Manny Parra	63	156	40%	0.8	446	2277	20%	0.7	0.2
Kris Medlen	52	129	40%	0.8	382	1951	20%	0.7	0.1
Matt Cain	147	380	39%	0.6	917	4878	19%	0.4	0.1
Randall Delgado	25	77	32%	-0.3	148	944	16%	-0.4	0.1
Rodrigo Lopez	28	111	25%	-1.3	163	1364	12%	-1.4	0.1
Brian Moehler	29	118	25%	-1.4	172	1475	12%	-1.5	0.1
Jonathon Niese	78	219	36%	0.1	497	2833	18%	0.1	0.0
Tim Redding	28	99	28%	-0.9	168	1217	14%	-0.9	0.0
Tommy Hanson	80	197	41%	0.8	568	2798	20%	0.9	0.0
Hiroki Kuroda	73	209	35%	0.1	767	4415	17%	0.1	0.0
Jair Jurrjens	68	227	30%	-0.6	424	2855	15%	-0.6	0.0
Chad Billingsley	114	294	39%	0.6	723	3717	19%	0.6	0.0
Ted Lilly	95	250	38%	0.5	613	3213	19%	0.5	0.0
Jaime Garcia	61	176	35%	0.0	376	2163	17%	0.1	-0.1
Joe Blanton	75	226	33%	-0.2	642	3828	17%	-0.1	-0.1
Lance Lynn	51	115	44%	1.4	367	1621	23%	1.5	-0.1
Travis Wood	58	175	33%	-0.2	367	2177	17%	-0.1	-0.1
Jonathan Sanchez	91	218	42%	1.0	610	2845	21%	1.2	-0.2
Madison Bumgarner	91	223	41%	0.9	586	2785	21%	1.1	-0.2
Ian Snell	25	89	28%	-0.9	225	1553	14%	-0.7	-0.2
Kyle Kendrick	59	256	23%	-1.6	393	3301	12%	-1.4	-0.2
Jeff Samardzija	60	147	41%	0.9	476	2255	21%	1.1	-0.2
A.J. Burnett	54	131	41%	0.9	1079	5040	21%	1.2	-0.2
Cliff Lee	85	205	41%	1.0	1118	5141	22%	1.2	-0.3
Ross Ohlendorf	43	152	28%	-0.9	305	2022	15%	-0.6	-0.3
Clayton Kershaw	156	345	45%	1.5	1050	4395	24%	1.8	-0.3
Chris Capuano	62	180	34%	0.0	403	2174	19%	0.4	-0.4
Dan Haren	86	220	39%	0.6	1044	4981	21%	1.0	-0.4
Edwin Jackson	65	202	32%	-0.3	836	4810	17%	0.1	-0.4
Juan Nicasio	30	94	32%	-0.4	201	1165	17%	0.0	-0.4
Kenshin Kawakami	22	83	27%	-1.1	142	977	15%	-0.7	-0.4
Kevin Correia	63	258	24%	-1.4	527	3907	13%	-1.0	-0.4
Wade LeBlanc	37	140	26%	-1.1	244	1665	15%	-0.7	-0.5
John Maine	30	94	32%	-0.4	193	1093	18%	0.1	-0.5
Matt Garza	43	119	36%	0.2	853	4284	20%	0.7	-0.5
Javier Vazquez	49	125	39%	0.6	672	3120	22%	1.2	-0.5
Josh Collmenter	32	98	33%	-0.3	233	1282	18%	0.3	-0.5
Bud Norris	79	213	37%	0.4	621	3020	21%	0.9	-0.6
Todd Wellemeyer	33	129	26%	-1.3	220	1504	15%	-0.7	-0.6
Mike Minor	56	155	36%	0.2	390	1939	20%	0.8	-0.6
Homer Bailey	82	247	33%	-0.2	595	3178	19%	0.4	-0.6
Jon Garland	36	176	20%	-2.0	359	2940	12%	-1.3	-0.6
Yovani Gallardo	123	312	39%	0.7	856	3879	22%	1.3	-0.6
Mark Buehrle	18	79	23%	-1.6	699	5172	14%	-1.0	-0.7
Johnny Cueto	89	292	30%	-0.6	664	3758	18%	0.1	-0.7
Adam Wainwright	101	277	36%	0.3	818	3934	21%	1.0	-0.7
Jhoulys Chacin	57	193	30%	-0.7	415	2395	17%	0.1	-0.8
Max Scherzer	37	84	44%	1.3	1032	4150	25%	2.1	-0.8
Ricky Nolasco	109	337	32%	-0.3	857	4538	19%	0.5	-0.8
Anibal Sanchez	76	207	37%	0.3	773	3654	21%	1.1	-0.8
Jake Peavy	37	98	38%	0.4	742	3413	22%	1.2	-0.8
Jorge De La Rosa	71	211	34%	-0.1	533	2683	20%	0.7	-0.9
Doug Davis	39	149	26%	-1.2	289	1805	16%	-0.3	-0.9
Patrick Corbin	29	90	32%	-0.3	235	1224	19%	0.6	-0.9
Stephen Strasburg	60	125	48%	1.9	444	1621	27%	2.8	-0.9
Ian Kennedy	79	238	33%	-0.2	665	3365	20%	0.7	-0.9
Livan Hernandez	37	210	18%	-2.4	393	3346	12%	-1.5	-0.9
James McDonald	51	161	32%	-0.4	391	2054	19%	0.5	-0.9
Rich Harden	33	76	43%	1.2	485	1921	25%	2.2	-0.9
Randy Johnson	30	87	34%	0.0	229	1103	21%	1.0	-1.0
Micah Owings	24	96	25%	-1.3	217	1369	16%	-0.3	-1.0
Daniel Hudson	29	97	30%	-0.7	275	1480	19%	0.4	-1.0
Andrew Miller	23	75	31%	-0.5	302	1568	19%	0.6	-1.1
Ubaldo Jimenez	82	242	34%	-0.1	1019	4838	21%	1.1	-1.2
Edinson Volquez	83	251	33%	-0.2	657	3148	21%	1.0	-1.2
Tim Stauffer	33	126	26%	-1.2	278	1601	17%	0.1	-1.2
Carlos Zambrano	58	226	26%	-1.2	537	3099	17%	0.1	-1.3
Ryan Dempster	92	284	32%	-0.3	976	4684	21%	1.0	-1.3
Chris Carpenter	52	192	27%	-1.0	481	2658	18%	0.3	-1.3
Shaun Marcum	39	133	29%	-0.7	576	2981	19%	0.6	-1.3
Roy Halladay	60	185	32%	-0.3	976	4619	21%	1.1	-1.4
Chad Gaudin	24	82	29%	-0.7	394	2012	20%	0.7	-1.4
Josh Johnson	73	221	33%	-0.2	685	3159	22%	1.2	-1.4
Dillon Gee	34	150	23%	-1.7	336	1996	17%	-0.1	-1.6
Jason Hammel	36	170	21%	-1.9	585	3560	16%	-0.2	-1.7
Tim Lincecum	138	386	36%	0.2	1222	4910	25%	2.1	-1.9
R.A. Dickey	29	178	16%	-2.6	716	4074	18%	0.1	-2.7

Hey look, near the top, it’s Wandy Rodriguez! Rodriguez’s strikeout rate against pitchers has been two standard deviations above the mean. His strikeout rate against non-pitchers has been 0.2 standard deviations above the mean. So there’s a difference of 1.8, which places him third in the table. Turns out I really was seeing something after all.

But where I might’ve expected Rodriguez to be the leader, instead I’m confronted by the fact that now I have to say something about Clayton Richard. Richard’s at +1.2 standard deviations when it comes to whiffing pitchers, but he’s at -1.2 standard deviations when it comes to whiffing non-pitchers. Against pitchers, he’s gotten strikeouts like Rich Harden. Against non-pitchers, he’s gotten strikeouts like Jamie Moyer. To be honest, this might actually be the most remarkable thing about Richard’s big-league career to date. Against pitchers, he has 87 strikeouts and three walks. Against non-pitchers, he has 393 strikeouts and 260 walks. I don’t know what it is about pitchers to him, but it’s something.

And between Richard and Rodriguez, there’s Derek Lowe. He’s closer to the former than he is to the latter. When I noticed Rodriguez’s name, I guessed that pitchers might have extraordinary trouble against big looping curveballs. Lowe makes me wonder if they also struggle against darting sinkers. What makes this tricky to investigate is that pitchers, by and large, suck against all pitches, of all types, so that’s a complication. But one notices that not far behind Lowe, there’s Aaron Cook. I’m not sure what to make of all these names.

The highest strikeout rate against pitchers belongs to Gio Gonzalez, with Brandon Beachy nipping at his heels. Marco Estrada is the only other guy at or above 50%. The highest strikeout rate against non-pitchers belongs to Stephen Strasburg, with Harden, Tim Lincecum, and Max Scherzer behind. Regarding Lincecum: the next paragraph.

Look now to the bottom of the table. Against pitchers, Lincecum’s strikeout rate is 0.2 standard deviations above the mean. Against non-pitchers, he’s at +2.1, for a difference of -1.9. It’s the second-lowest difference in the table, and it makes you wonder if Lincecum might back off a little when there’s a pitcher in the box. Alternatively, it could be something else — after all, somebody has to occupy this part of the table. Wherever there’s a top, there’s a bottom.

Yet, blowing Lincecum away, we find R.A. Dickey. Dickey has a difference of -2.7, the result of striking pitchers and non-pitchers out at almost the same rate. As a matter of fact, Dickey’s strikeout rate against non-pitchers is higher, despite your brain telling you that it should be impossible for a pitcher to try to hit a knuckleball. I’ve actually addressed this briefly before, in that post about Gonzalez — the knuckleball sort of evens the score. As this article puts it, the knuckleball doesn’t really discriminate, as it effectively reduces the difference between good hitters and bad hitters. It’s a crazy and fascinating thing to be true, assuming it’s true, and in this table Dickey’s basically by himself, separated by a full 0.8. Lincecum must have his own explanation.

The important thing is that now I’m pretty satisfied. Sure enough, Wandy Rodriguez has been particularly good at striking out pitchers, relative to non-pitchers. Yet Clayton Richard has been the most unusual in that regard, and I’m pleased to have found something worth saying about him as a professional that isn’t mean. At the other extreme, we have R.A. Dickey, which I kind of knew about, and Tim Lincecum, which I didn’t. I don’t know if I’ll ever investigate this further, but I’m content to even have these numbers. Even if the ball’s done rolling, it rolled.