Jason Collette Baseball Chat – 2/7/14

Jason Collette: I’m still battling walking pneumonia, but at least I’m not in Sochi. Let’s chat!

Comment From Perplexed Fantasy Owner
Hey Jason. Thanks for doing the chat today. I’m in an 11-team AL-only league, and I need your guidance. I own Brandon Morrow and Scott Kazmir on the cheap this year, but they both terrify me! What do you expect out of each of them in 2014? Should I hang on to them or cut bait before the season starts?

	Jason Collette: I have Kazmir myself and not terrified as I really liked what I saw from him as the season progressed. Morrow would terrify me as health is a problem that does not go away and Toronto, for whatever reason, seems to have more injury issues than most teams.

Comment From jesse
pneumonia, that sound like an excuse, man up and rub some dirt on hit!

	Jason Collette: I’ll paste what I said last week when someone else asked the same thing – I’ve been writing about fantasy baseball since 1999 where I got started at the old RotoJunkie.coom (now rjbullpen.com). In 2008, Fanball plucked me from there and then I was split between BP and Rotowire in 2011 when Fanball was shut down by Liberty Media. I’m still doing a lot of work at Rotowire and also do monthly contributions to BaseballHQ.com and guest spots on the ESPN Sweetspot blog. Lastly, I’ve been writing about the Rays since 2007 between time spent at DRaysBay, Dock of the Rays (now in the hands of the talented Jason Hanselman) and now write with R.J. Anderson & Tommy Rancel at TheProcessReport.net. I believe in the DH, roofed stadiums, fake grass, and yoga pants.

Comment From Zach
I see this is only your third chat and you’re a fairly new FG contributor. What’s your brief bio? What do you like to chat about?

	Jason Collette: well, this is the question I meant to reply to previously. I blame the meds

Comment From Brad
Pitcher keeper: Pick one: Bailey, A. Sanchez or Teheran and why? Thanks.

	Jason Collette: I’m a big Homer Bailey guy. You want my non-Kershaw pick for the NL CY, there it is.

Comment From Brian
I just traded for Mike Trout as a 15th round keeper for the rest of his career. I can’t come up with a way to celebrate that lives up to this moment.

	Jason Collette: Streaking in the quad while holding a large growler of a Russian River brew would work for me

Comment From Josh
Is Berkman a top 5 switch hitter of all time? And if so is he worthy of being on the HOF ballot, at least as long as Mattingly?

	Jason Collette: He will hang around the ballot for a bit, but won’t get in. He’s definitely a top 5 switch hitter in my book

Comment From Swing and Miss Puiggy
Will the Dodgers trade an OF? If so, which one?

	Jason Collette: I would say Ethier based on health. If he and Kemp were equally healthy, it would be a 50/50 thing.

Comment From toot toot
I was thinking that, free of context, I’d rather have the Freeman contract than the Kershaw contract. Am I insane?

	Jason Collette: On a simple dollar basis, why not? Also, 1B prospects are getting tougher to come by these days. That said, I have zero issue with paying premium money to the best pitcher in the game at his age.

Comment From KJ
Where do you think Kendrys ends up and what kind of deal?

	Jason Collette: I’ve said all winter to never doubt Boras as he always gets his man his money, but Morales could end up being the exception. Pittsburgh has a clear need IF Morales can stay on the field all season with his legs. Baltimore could change the needle on their awful offseason by adding him. Yet, we don’t seem to be closer to a team today than we were a month ago. It’s a looooooong game of chicken.

Comment From Brad
Collete Calls rocks.

	Jason Collette: Thank you – just celebrated the 3 yr anniversary of the column

Comment From Cason Jollette
is there any leaderboards that i can sort by xBABIP ?? cant seem to find it

	Jason Collette: There’s a coordinated effort by parts of the FG staff to get that completed here soon as they’ve been tweaking things. I know Eno and Zim were spearheading that.

Comment From Maximus
Who would you rather have on your fantasy team the next 5 seasons: Nolan Arenado or Nick Castellanos?

	Jason Collette: Castellanos, and that’s no slight on Arenado.

Comment From Karl
In which Winter Olympic Event would you most like to participate?

	Jason Collette: Curling. I want to be an ice scraper in curling. It’s a bucket list thing that is a bit toughh to accomplish in Orlando, FL.

Comment From Carl
Who do you think is most likely to pitch the most MLB innings from these guys: Wieland, Hutchison, Nuno? thanks

	Jason Collette: I’ll go with Nuno, for now. I like Hutchinson but reference my Toronto health comment earlier

Comment From pr
pls rank for 2014: Niese, Smyly, Haren. thx

	Jason Collette: Haren, Niese, Smyly. This will be the year Haren’s back stays healthy all year.

Comment From Josh
At this point in his career, where does jimmy rollins rank amongst shortstops? Top 15?

	Jason Collette: mid teens. At least 12 guys from this list I like better – http://stats.nesn.com/mlb/adp.asp?pos=SS

Comment From Edgar
With Freddie Freeman’s new contract, what do you expect from him going forward? How much more improvement is there in his bat?

	Jason Collette: I thought the Braves were very smart to lock him up through all of his prime production years. Expect him to earn every bit of that contract in the ends with a little surplus value for the team in the end.

Comment From pr
pls rank: GReinke, Latos, Tanaka, Zimm and Gio. THanks!

	Jason Collette: Greinke, Zimm, Gio, Tanaka, Latos

Comment From Markus
One more hitter for the Mariners….who?

	Jason Collette: Sure seems like it will be Nelson Cruz at this point. Not too many other options unless they can find an outfielder via trade.

Comment From Chad
Projections for Ryan Goins?

	Jason Collette: He’s going to have to play strong defense, because I don’t see much value in his bat. A lot being asked of him right now since the depth chart doesn’t offer much help.

Comment From JBIzzy
Flying into orlando on Sunday, any good local beers?

	Jason Collette: Yes, go to the Cask & Larder in Winter Park or look for Florida Brewing Co. & Cigar City stuff on tap if you’re out. We have several World of Beer places around town too which have great local stuff. That reminds me, I can’t drink for another 5 days thanks to the meds I’m on. Ugh

Comment From Squab
Pick #750 in my NFBC draft. Zach Lee or Wade Davis?

	Jason Collette: Wade Davis, if he’s in the bullpen.

Comment From Brandon
Believe in Dom Brown’s breakout season last year? HR/AB and HR/FB look awfully suspicious.

	Jason Collette: I wrote about Brown in December; I’m pessimistic about his future http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/what-can-domonic-brown-do-for-you/

Comment From chop
As an alternative to Nelson Cruz, could the Mariners offer four years of Dustin Ackley for the four years and roughly $60 million remaining on outfielder B.J. Upton’s contract? Ackley could compete with Dan Uggla at second base or with Evan Gattis for the third outfield slot. The Mariners would buy low on a needed righthand-hitting defensively adept outfielder who averaged 3.7 WAR for the six seasons preceding last year’s debacle.

	Jason Collette: This is a creative solution to get Upton out of Atlanta with four years remaining. Reports are he’s working with Greg Walker a lot this offseason on the swing. When BJ was here with the Rays, tinkering was always an issue as he didn’t stay with things that long. In talking on the field one day with some folks, they said it’s always about the hands with BJ. When his hands are good, his swing is good.

Comment From The answer is 7
Madison Bumgarner is a top-X fantasy pitcher in keeper leagues.

	Jason Collette: 8

Comment From Jeff
What are your thoughts on Tommy Hunter in an AL-only league now that he looks to be the closer?

	Jason Collette: Awful. He has no answer for LH bats. He’s given up. I wrote about that in December – http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-orioles-bullpen-options/ . Buck can play matchups with that pen, but Hunter as the closer seems destined to fail as he’s as good vs RH as he is bad vs LH.

Comment From Kevin
I’ve got Brad Miller and Segura on my roster– will Miller spell Cano at 2B enough to keep the eligibility? Or should I focus on moving one during this season?

	Jason Collette: The only way Miller gets 20 games at 2B is if Cano gets injured.

Comment From Say what?
If cities had a WAR-like measure, what would Orlando be?

	Jason Collette: 1.5. Weather is good 4-5 months out of the year, but traffic completely sucks because they wait 10-15 years after building up an area to address the infrastructure so it takes forever to get anywhere. Also, 10 chain restaurants for every local one.

Comment From Schiraldi
On Billy Butler’s power, projection systems are all over the map. My instinct is that he’ll rebound to a 450-475 SLG and 20 HRs, but not all the way to his 2012 numbers. Is that realistic in your view, or are there red flags that I’m not considering?

	Jason Collette: That 20% HR/FB rate in 2012 stands out like a sore thumb against his career efforts. If he want to get back to that rate, he needs to loft more balls. His FB% is in a 3-year decline

Comment From Josh
Springer or Castro the Astros lone All-Star?

	Jason Collette: Brad Peacock or Chad Qualls (if he closes). Watch it happen

Comment From Derek Smalls
Best starting pitching staff in the AL? how many NL staffs are better?

	Jason Collette: I think the Tigers staff is the best in the AL now that Porcello is really coming around, but a healthy Haren in LA could make the Dodgers staff the best in the game.

Comment From Tim R.
No offense, by Tyra is the better Collette.

	Jason Collette: My sister Toni and I are greatly offended

Comment From Cruz
Chances that Nick Franklin gets trade to either KC, NYY, or other and becomes a top 20 2B/SS

	Jason Collette: I like Franklin quite a bit. He’s a local kid from my area and I’ve had the chance to interview him twice out in the AFL. He should have value on the trade market should the M’s decide to use him to address other situations.

Comment From Josh
I see you believe in the roof- so common sense would say that the Super Bowl needs to always been a covered stadium (or a stadium in the South), agree? Luckily the weather was good this year in New York.

	Jason Collette: As anti-Cowboys as I am, hosting the SB each year in Jerry’s World would be pretty awesome. Humongous crowd, parties Texas style, guaranteed great weather, and a central travel location with plenty of infrastructure to support it..

Comment From Maximus
How long will Rodney’s leash be? Barring injury, do you see Farquhar getting any saves for the Mariners this season?

	Jason Collette: It depends on which Rodney shows up . The 2013 version got into bad habits last season that persisted (covered here http://theprocessreport.net/assorted-thoughts-on-fernando-rodney/) The 2012 version was controlled madness as he threw more strikes, and could throw the CH at any point as an equalizer.

Comment From Rick
Pick a keeper for 2014: Salazar at $9 or Uehara at $4?

	Jason Collette: Uehara has never thrown more than 50 innings in consecutive seasons, which is why I really liked the Mujica move for Boston. That said, $4 for potentially 30 saves is a bargain.

Comment From Josh
Why has Mattingly stuck on the ballot this long, and Bagwell hasn’t gotten in yet (sorry about the HOF questions, it’s too early to work)

	Jason Collette: Because nobody has ever slandered Mattingly’s name with baseless bulls**t based on eye tests. Some serious intellectual dishonesty is in play with him.

Comment From Arnold
Your predictions for Josh Donaldson and Rick Porcello for this year

	Jason Collette: Big fans of both guys. Porcello turned a corner last year with his breaking stuff & sequencing while Donaldson has done nothing but rake since his promotion in August of 2012.

Comment From Ryguy
What do you personally use for player projections?

	Jason Collette: As many as I can get a hold of. Oliver, Steamer, ZiPS, PECOTA, you name it. Projections should be guidelines to help you frame your own call on a player, not the gospel. It’s ok to disagree with them..

Comment From Jake
When do we get an international draft?

	Jason Collette: Never. Not franchise friendly. Teams control the costs this way and that’s the way most like it.

Comment From John
What do you think about the backup in the Cardinals young pitching rotation, specifically Carlos Martinez’ role this year?

	Jason Collette: He’s going to be in a swing role the way things look. He needs to be more effective against LH because he doesn’t have much to get them out.

Comment From Zack
AL East rankings?

	Jason Collette: TB BOS NYY TOR BAL

Comment From Mark
have you read Larry Schechter’s new book? Do you use SGP or some other method to eval players?

	Jason Collette: I’m about 50 pages into it after I just finished reading Hayhurst’s soon-to-be released book (very good). Larry is the best at what he does and highly recommend reading his book because his resume speaks for itself. I’m a SGP fan

Comment From Jake
The Brewers are 15 under .500 by July. What does NYY need to give them to get Aramis Ramirez?

	Jason Collette: Ramirez, one of my favorite players who doesn’t get enough attention for just how good he has been. Milwaukee’s farm system needs all of the help it can get. That said, I don’t think they’ll be 15 games under in July and like them as a sneaky competitor this season.

Comment From Charles
why is Haren getting more support his year than lat pre-season?

	Jason Collette: Because he was really good down the stretch last season. If you haven’t read the piece Adam Kilgore did last year on him, do so. I covered that here – http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dan-haren-becomes-rare-underpaid-dodger/

Comment From Jake
Puig’s supposedly taken better than most to being more patient (http://www.gammonsdaily.com/a-more-patient-yasiel-puig-in-2014/), over under on a .375 2014 OBP?

	Jason Collette: Under, but not by much

Comment From Jake
What percentage of your team-centric questions are about the AL east? The AL central?

	Jason Collette: It’s been rather evenly spread over the past three chats.

Comment From Maximus
Is Blake Bortles really a top 5 talent or is the hype machine getting out of control?

	Jason Collette: You know how to get my attention. 6’5″ pocket passer with a strong arm and mobility. That doesn’t grow on trees. He could use a bit more accuracy down the field, but I’m excited about his pro potential. Not bad for a kid that was a 2* player on Rivals coming out of HS and schools were looking to sign as a TE.

Comment From StevePete
Alex Cobb and Cespedes going to look a lot like last year?

	Jason Collette: Sure. Cobb would have been in the CY discussion until Hosmer’s batted ball derailed that. I view him as the 2 on that staff because of his consistency. One of my favorite pitchers in the game to watch do his work.

Comment From David
Over/Under on Bryce Harper’s Zips projection

	Jason Collette: I’m very comfortable wit the .279/.363/.523 line with 28 HR, 15 steals.

Comment From Cody
Where do you see the Royals finishing in their division?

	Jason Collette: A distant second from the Tigers.

Comment From Jimmy
What do the Mariners give the White Sox in a trade for Alejandro De Aza?

	Jason Collette: Go for bust and ask for Jesus Montero in return. Montero is not going to catch, and a change of scenery may be the best thing for him as the expectations need adjustment.

Comment From Joe
The marlins didnt sign Marmol to close did they?

	Jason Collette: No way. Cishek proved himself more than capable last season and Ramos and Capps would be in line to replace him if he were to be dealt or became injured. Marmol is a depth move as the Marlins continue to roster players from RBI Baseball days

Comment From Sam
The Braves have too little financial resources to spread around to their young talent…they’re gonna have to choose some over others to keep around. Most likely Braves to receive an extension out of the core group (Heyward, Minor, Teheran, Kimbrel, Simmons, etc)? I say Simmons, followed by Teheran or Minor.

	Jason Collette: With a new stadium coming, resources shouldn’t be an issue. At least, that’s how the mantra goes. I don’t see them locking up Kimbrel to an extension. His arb case is going to be very interesting to follow because he’s being comped to 2008 Papelbon, and his numbers are much stronger than that. I’m a fan of teams drafting, developing, and retaining as much of their young core as possible. That also takes two camps to tango. If may sound terse, but if I’m a team, I’m showing my young pitcher what has happened to Luebek, Hudson, Madson, and Baker in recent years as I offer them pre-agency deals that will guarantee them financial security.

Jason Collette: Sorry I didn’t have time to get to more questions, but podcast recording awaits. Thanks for dropping by and let’s chat again next Friday!