2014 ZiPS Projections – Texas Rangers

After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Texas Rangers. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / San Diego / Seattle / St. Louis / Tampa Bay / Toronto.

Batters
Adjudged purely by likely wins gained relative to actual dollars spent, the Rangers’ trade of Ian Kinsler to Detroit for Prince Fielder doesn’t probably qualify as an excellent move. Team context can’t be ignored, however, as the ZiPS projection for infielder Jurickson Profar illustrates. Profar is likely to approximate Ian Kinsler’s production in 2014, is what Dan Szymborski’s computer math suggests. Fielder, moreover, represents an upgrade over whomever would have played first base or DH’ed instead of him. Ergo, the Rangers are improved overall.

Indeed, even with the acquisition of Fielder, Texas remains a club that could benefit from offensive help. Mitch Moreland’s bat profiles as just a league-average one — which, unless complemented by quite a bit in the way of run-saving defensively, conspires to make him something less than average overall. Combining him with a right-handed bat in a platoon would help that. With whom?, is the question. Michael Choice is one possibility, but he would appear to have something to offer in terms of defense.

Pitchers
According to ZiPS, the injured and talented Derek Holland is neither much better nor much worse than the injured and talented Matt Harvey. Three-to-four wins, is the hypothetical true talent for both, currently. What’s probably true, however, is that those three or four wins are more important to a Rangers club that’s likely to contend for the playoffs and less important to a Mets club that’s unlikely to contend. Given Holland’s recovery timetable (a midseason return is expected) and his likely replacement (Nick Tepesch, it seems), the Holland injury would appear to be costing the Rangers about one Platonic Win.

A haphazard inspection of all the 20-plus clubs to have been considered thus far reveals that Yu Darvish has probably the third-best projection among starting pitchers, after Clayton Kershaw (6.6 zWAR) and Justin Verlander (6.1 zWAR). That statement might also be inaccurate, however, owing to haphazard the inspection was.

Bench/Prospects
Despite having resolved their Middle Infield Problem this offseason with the trade of Kinsler, it’s possible that Texas could face a similar one at some point over the next two or three years. Among the field-playing prospects to receive the most encouraging projections here are second baseman Rougned Odor and shortstop Luis Sardinas — about to enter just their age-20 and -21 seasons, respectively. Luke Jackson, meanwhile, is the closest thing to major-league-ready among Rangers’ starting-pitching prospects, it would appear. The very thorough Nathaniel Stoltz addressed Jackson’s future last July.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Rangers, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Adrian Beltre	R	35	3B	598	73	164	29	1	27	87	1	0
Elvis Andrus	R	25	SS	699	84	169	24	6	4	62	35	9
Shin-Soo Choo	L	31	RF	601	81	132	27	2	17	62	18	9
Jurickson Profar	B	21	SS	557	60	129	24	3	14	57	11	5
Prince Fielder	L	30	1B	669	76	157	30	0	30	101	1	1
Leonys Martin	L	26	CF	451	55	107	21	5	9	48	25	10
Nelson Cruz	R	33	RF	585	63	138	29	1	27	89	8	3
J.P. Arencibia	R	28	C	467	50	99	20	1	22	70	1	1
Geovany Soto	R	31	C	316	36	64	15	0	12	40	1	1
Robinson Chirinos	R	30	C	367	40	80	15	1	8	37	1	2
Alex Rios	R	33	RF	615	77	158	31	4	15	74	25	7
Luis Sardinas	B	21	SS	550	55	137	18	2	3	36	26	11
Rougned Odor	L	20	2B	563	60	137	29	3	11	57	21	11
Mitch Moreland	L	28	1B	504	56	116	26	1	20	63	1	1
Michael Choice	R	24	LF	631	73	146	28	0	16	70	3	3
Brent Lillibridge	R	30	SS	308	39	65	10	1	10	33	14	5
Engel Beltre	L	24	CF	563	57	131	20	5	7	41	20	11
Che-Hsuan Lin	R	25	CF	502	54	102	14	2	3	35	16	6
Kevin Kouzmanoff	R	32	3B	380	38	88	21	1	8	48	2	1
Hanser Alberto	R	21	SS	532	48	125	13	3	6	43	16	7
Jake Smolinski	R	25	LF	488	51	101	21	2	8	43	7	3
Lance Berkman	B	38	DH	227	23	48	8	1	6	29	0	0
Adam Rosales	R	31	SS	289	32	62	12	1	7	32	2	1
Jeff Baker	R	33	1B	196	20	44	9	1	6	24	1	0
Alex Castellanos	R	27	RF	497	61	102	20	5	15	57	13	5
Kensuke Tanaka	L	33	2B	426	50	99	11	2	1	33	16	8
Bryan Petersen	L	28	RF	547	60	116	23	3	7	45	10	6
Brad Snyder	L	32	CF	452	49	94	20	2	13	53	7	6
Josh Wilson	R	33	2B	314	30	63	13	1	4	25	3	2
Jim Adduci	L	29	RF	485	51	109	17	2	8	40	19	7

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Adrian Beltre	598	5.9%	11.9%	.202	.298	.297	.341	.499	.356
Elvis Andrus	699	8.0%	13.6%	.078	.315	.273	.337	.351	.307
Shin-Soo Choo	601	13.8%	21.0%	.164	.321	.265	.385	.429	.359
Jurickson Profar	557	8.6%	18.5%	.145	.301	.261	.330	.406	.321
Prince Fielder	669	12.6%	16.3%	.212	.293	.276	.378	.488	.364
Leonys Martin	451	6.2%	19.1%	.142	.312	.264	.318	.406	.314
Nelson Cruz	585	7.4%	22.1%	.210	.291	.259	.316	.469	.340
J.P. Arencibia	467	5.1%	27.8%	.201	.267	.227	.270	.428	.302
Geovany Soto	316	9.8%	26.9%	.181	.281	.228	.308	.409	.314
Robinson Chirinos	367	7.9%	19.1%	.125	.283	.242	.311	.367	.299
Alex Rios	615	4.7%	14.0%	.145	.297	.272	.309	.417	.318
Luis Sardinas	550	4.5%	16.7%	.060	.318	.267	.306	.327	.283
Rougned Odor	563	4.1%	19.2%	.129	.308	.261	.304	.390	.306
Mitch Moreland	504	7.9%	20.6%	.193	.286	.256	.316	.449	.327
Michael Choice	631	8.1%	23.1%	.135	.318	.259	.326	.394	.318
Brent Lillibridge	308	5.2%	29.2%	.148	.296	.229	.278	.377	.290
Engel Beltre	563	4.1%	22.4%	.098	.316	.251	.289	.349	.276
Che-Hsuan Lin	502	9.0%	15.5%	.061	.271	.230	.309	.291	.275
Kevin Kouzmanoff	380	3.7%	17.1%	.132	.279	.247	.282	.379	.287
Hanser Alberto	532	3.4%	12.0%	.074	.272	.249	.279	.323	.267
Jake Smolinski	488	9.4%	18.9%	.113	.277	.233	.312	.346	.295
Lance Berkman	227	12.3%	18.9%	.141	.280	.241	.335	.382	.313
Adam Rosales	289	5.9%	21.5%	.133	.278	.236	.286	.369	.284
Jeff Baker	196	6.6%	24.5%	.160	.297	.243	.296	.403	.305
Alex Castellanos	497	6.8%	30.4%	.166	.304	.227	.294	.393	.303
Kensuke Tanaka	426	8.0%	10.6%	.047	.288	.261	.320	.308	.281
Bryan Petersen	547	8.8%	22.7%	.102	.302	.237	.310	.339	.288
Brad Snyder	452	6.0%	33.4%	.150	.313	.224	.271	.374	.279
Josh Wilson	314	4.8%	25.5%	.092	.280	.214	.259	.306	.251
Jim Adduci	485	7.2%	22.1%	.102	.307	.247	.304	.349	.290

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Adrian Beltre	598	6.6	121	5	4.5	Brooks Robinson
Elvis Andrus	699	4.7	85	6	3.3	Steve Sax
Shin-Soo Choo	601	6.1	118	1	3.1	Keith Hernandez
Jurickson Profar	557	4.9	96	2	2.7	Edgardo Alfonzo
Prince Fielder	669	6.9	130	-7	2.6	Alvin Davis
Leonys Martin	451	4.9	92	7	2.2	Terrence Long
Nelson Cruz	585	5.5	107	-2	1.6	Jermaine Dye
J.P. Arencibia	467	4.0	83	-2	1.4	Dave Duncan
Geovany Soto	316	4.4	90	-1	1.3	Kelly Stinnett
Robinson Chirinos	367	4.0	81	0	1.2	Chad Moeller
Alex Rios	615	5.0	92	2	1.1	Gee Walker
Luis Sardinas	550	3.8	70	4	1.0	Julio Franco
Rougned Odor	563	4.3	84	-3	0.9	Robinson Cano
Mitch Moreland	504	5.1	102	1	0.8	Nate Gold
Michael Choice	631	4.6	92	-2	0.6	Dale Holman
Brent Lillibridge	308	3.8	73	-2	0.3	Dave Matranga
Engel Beltre	563	3.6	70	3	0.3	Chris Duffy
Che-Hsuan Lin	502	3.3	62	4	0.3	Charles Gipson
Kevin Kouzmanoff	380	3.8	75	-1	0.2	Aurelio Rodriguez
Hanser Alberto	532	3.3	61	3	0.2	Victor Rodriguez
Jake Smolinski	488	3.8	76	4	0.1	Adam Leggett
Lance Berkman	227	4.6	91	0	0.1	Todd Zeile
Adam Rosales	289	3.7	74	-3	0.0	Jorge Velandia
Jeff Baker	196	4.3	85	0	-0.1	Walt Dropo
Alex Castellanos	497	4.1	82	-3	-0.3	Andy Tomberlin
Kensuke Tanaka	426	3.6	69	-5	-0.4	Jack Perconte
Bryan Petersen	547	3.7	74	1	-0.5	Mike Neill
Brad Snyder	452	3.4	70	-8	-0.9	John Shelby
Josh Wilson	314	2.7	51	-1	-0.9	Chris Petersen
Jim Adduci	485	3.9	74	-6	-1.0	Kevin Koslofski

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Yu Darvish	R	27	31	31	201.7	263	79	22	152	73	68
Derek Holland	L	27	31	30	193.3	176	59	25	187	91	85
Matt Harrison	L	28	19	19	111.3	78	37	12	114	55	51
Martin Perez	L	23	30	27	157.0	106	56	20	169	85	79
Alexi Ogando	R	30	36	17	108.3	85	35	15	104	54	50
Nick Tepesch	R	25	25	23	125.0	86	35	17	137	71	66
Luke Jackson	R	22	26	25	120.7	107	74	14	121	68	64
Neal Cotts	L	34	50	0	53.0	61	21	5	44	20	19
Robbie Ross	L	25	64	0	65.0	58	21	6	62	28	26
Tanner Scheppers	R	27	73	0	72.0	59	21	8	70	32	30
Neftali Feliz	R	26	27	4	37.0	35	18	4	32	16	15
Colby Lewis	R	34	14	14	78.0	65	22	14	80	45	42
Cory Burns	R	26	59	0	62.3	53	26	5	61	29	27
Travis Blackley	L	31	39	9	75.0	56	27	11	76	42	39
Jason Frasor	R	36	53	0	44.7	47	19	5	40	20	19
Joakim Soria	R	30	43	0	40.7	44	14	5	36	18	17
Chaz Roe	R	27	48	0	47.3	42	19	5	44	22	21
Ross Wolf	R	31	41	4	69.7	40	26	8	77	40	37
Ben Rowen	R	25	46	0	57.3	36	19	6	61	30	28
Wilmer Font	R	24	56	0	49.3	53	31	6	44	26	24
Shawn Tolleson	R	26	36	0	36.7	39	16	5	34	19	18
Lisalverto Bonilla	R	24	42	0	62.0	64	32	8	58	33	31
Rafael Perez	L	32	33	0	31.0	21	10	4	33	17	16
Derek Lowe	R	41	15	6	48.7	21	17	5	57	31	29
Randy Henry	R	24	39	0	49.7	29	18	6	54	28	26
Joe Ortiz	L	23	53	0	66.7	45	18	10	72	37	35
Jose Contreras	R	42	25	0	24.7	22	12	4	25	15	14
Michael Kirkman	L	27	37	6	71.3	63	46	10	73	45	42
Miles Mikolas	R	25	59	0	64.7	41	24	9	70	37	35
Kyle McClellan	R	30	30	4	57.0	34	21	10	62	36	34
Nathan Adcock	R	26	26	15	102.0	52	48	15	116	68	64
Nate Robertson	L	36	29	4	48.0	25	24	7	56	32	30
Roman Mendez	R	23	21	6	47.7	33	24	8	53	33	31
Daniel McCutchen	R	31	39	3	62.0	40	25	10	69	40	37
Johan Yan	R	25	47	0	58.3	37	29	8	64	36	34
Evan Meek	R	31	36	7	67.7	42	39	10	76	46	43
Justin Germano	R	31	25	19	119.0	61	31	21	147	82	77
Randy Wells	R	31	14	12	63.0	35	31	13	74	47	44
Doug Mathis	R	31	20	18	91.0	48	53	16	108	67	63
Armando Rodriguez	R	26	38	5	66.7	54	35	16	74	49	46
Ryan Feierabend	L	28	21	16	97.3	51	37	21	120	75	70
Scott Richmond	R	34	22	19	101.0	52	47	25	128	86	80

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Yu Darvish	201.7	836	31.5%	9.4%	.281	3.03	3.28	71	77
Derek Holland	193.3	826	21.3%	7.1%	.288	3.96	4.01	92	94
Matt Harrison	111.3	485	16.1%	7.6%	.286	4.12	4.17	96	97
Martin Perez	157.0	696	15.2%	8.0%	.294	4.53	4.67	106	109
Alexi Ogando	108.3	464	18.3%	7.5%	.275	4.15	4.49	97	105
Nick Tepesch	125.0	547	15.7%	6.4%	.299	4.75	4.55	111	106
Luke Jackson	120.7	557	19.2%	13.3%	.302	4.77	4.95	111	116
Neal Cotts	53.0	224	27.2%	9.4%	.287	3.23	3.29	75	77
Robbie Ross	65.0	278	20.9%	7.6%	.296	3.60	3.65	84	85
Tanner Scheppers	72.0	307	19.2%	6.8%	.291	3.75	3.94	88	92
Neftali Feliz	37.0	161	21.7%	11.2%	.272	3.65	4.15	85	97
Colby Lewis	78.0	336	19.3%	6.5%	.284	4.85	4.80	113	112
Cory Burns	62.3	274	19.4%	9.5%	.301	3.90	3.82	91	89
Travis Blackley	75.0	328	17.1%	8.2%	.280	4.68	4.67	109	109
Jason Frasor	44.7	193	24.3%	9.8%	.289	3.83	3.73	89	87
Joakim Soria	40.7	172	25.6%	8.1%	.287	3.76	3.64	88	85
Chaz Roe	47.3	205	20.5%	9.3%	.283	3.99	3.85	93	90
Ross Wolf	69.7	312	12.8%	8.3%	.293	4.78	4.72	112	110
Ben Rowen	57.3	252	14.3%	7.5%	.294	4.40	4.43	103	103
Wilmer Font	49.3	223	23.8%	13.9%	.295	4.38	4.74	102	111
Shawn Tolleson	36.7	160	24.4%	10.0%	.296	4.42	4.29	103	100
Lisalverto Bonilla	62.0	276	23.2%	11.6%	.298	4.50	4.43	105	104
Rafael Perez	31.0	136	15.4%	7.4%	.290	4.65	4.56	109	107
Derek Lowe	48.7	220	9.5%	7.7%	.297	5.36	4.76	125	111
Randy Henry	49.7	221	13.1%	8.1%	.293	4.71	4.91	110	115
Joe Ortiz	66.7	290	15.5%	6.2%	.290	4.72	4.63	110	108
Jose Contreras	24.7	111	19.8%	10.8%	.291	5.11	5.08	119	119
Michael Kirkman	71.3	333	18.9%	13.8%	.300	5.30	5.21	124	122
Miles Mikolas	64.7	288	14.2%	8.3%	.292	4.87	5.01	114	117
Kyle McClellan	57.0	254	13.4%	8.3%	.280	5.37	5.47	125	128
Nathan Adcock	102.0	470	11.1%	10.2%	.289	5.65	5.63	132	131
Nate Robertson	48.0	224	11.2%	10.7%	.297	5.62	5.65	131	132
Roman Mendez	47.7	220	15.0%	10.9%	.298	5.85	5.67	137	132
Daniel McCutchen	62.0	280	14.3%	8.9%	.294	5.37	5.29	125	123
Johan Yan	58.3	268	13.8%	10.8%	.295	5.25	5.28	123	123
Evan Meek	67.7	318	13.2%	12.3%	.296	5.72	5.72	134	133
Justin Germano	119.0	535	11.4%	5.8%	.305	5.82	5.43	136	127
Randy Wells	63.0	294	11.9%	10.5%	.288	6.29	6.32	147	148
Doug Mathis	91.0	434	11.1%	12.2%	.296	6.23	6.28	145	147
Armando Rodriguez	66.7	309	17.5%	11.3%	.290	6.21	6.38	145	149
Ryan Feierabend	97.3	449	11.4%	8.2%	.297	6.47	6.26	151	146
Scott Richmond	101.0	478	10.9%	9.8%	.297	7.13	6.97	166	163

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Yu Darvish	201.7	11.74	3.53	0.98	142	6.0	Kerry Wood
Derek Holland	193.3	8.19	2.75	1.16	109	3.6	Bruce Hurst
Matt Harrison	111.3	6.31	2.99	0.97	104	1.9	Chris Hammond
Martin Perez	157.0	6.08	3.21	1.15	95	1.8	Dave Fleming
Alexi Ogando	108.3	7.06	2.91	1.25	104	1.6	Dustin Hermanson
Nick Tepesch	125.0	6.19	2.52	1.22	91	1.1	Ramiro Mendoza
Luke Jackson	120.7	7.98	5.52	1.04	90	1.0	Bill Mooneyham
Neal Cotts	53.0	10.36	3.57	0.85	133	0.9	Damaso Marte
Robbie Ross	65.0	8.03	2.91	0.83	120	0.8	Steve Howe
Tanner Scheppers	72.0	7.38	2.63	1.00	115	0.7	Jay Tessmer
Neftali Feliz	37.0	8.51	4.38	0.97	118	0.6	Troy Percival
Colby Lewis	78.0	7.50	2.54	1.62	89	0.6	Nerio Rodriguez
Cory Burns	62.3	7.66	3.76	0.72	110	0.5	Blaine Neal
Travis Blackley	75.0	6.72	3.24	1.32	92	0.4	Bryan Clark
Jason Frasor	44.7	9.46	3.83	1.01	112	0.4	Mike Fetters
Joakim Soria	40.7	9.73	3.10	1.11	114	0.4	Marvin Freeman
Chaz Roe	47.3	7.99	3.62	0.95	108	0.3	Scott Gentile
Ross Wolf	69.7	5.16	3.36	1.03	90	0.1	Jim Todd
Ben Rowen	57.3	5.65	2.98	0.94	98	0.1	Rocky Childress
Wilmer Font	49.3	9.68	5.66	1.10	98	0.1	Ryan Bukvich
Shawn Tolleson	36.7	9.56	3.92	1.23	97	0.1	Steve Andrade
Lisalverto Bonilla	62.0	9.29	4.65	1.16	96	0.1	P.J. Bevis
Rafael Perez	31.0	6.10	2.90	1.16	93	0.0	Brian Shouse
Derek Lowe	48.7	3.88	3.14	0.92	80	0.0	Steve Sparks
Randy Henry	49.7	5.25	3.26	1.09	91	-0.1	Bob Miller
Joe Ortiz	66.7	6.07	2.43	1.35	91	-0.1	Mark Peterson
Jose Contreras	24.7	8.02	4.37	1.46	84	-0.2	Roberto Hernandez
Michael Kirkman	71.3	7.95	5.81	1.26	81	-0.2	Matt Whisenant
Miles Mikolas	64.7	5.70	3.34	1.25	88	-0.2	Robert Paulk
Kyle McClellan	57.0	5.37	3.32	1.58	80	-0.2	Billy Loes
Nathan Adcock	102.0	4.59	4.24	1.32	76	-0.3	Bob Link
Nate Robertson	48.0	4.69	4.50	1.31	77	-0.3	Dave Righetti
Roman Mendez	47.7	6.23	4.53	1.51	74	-0.4	Mark Hampton
Daniel McCutchen	62.0	5.81	3.63	1.45	80	-0.4	Mike Sullivan
Johan Yan	58.3	5.71	4.48	1.23	82	-0.5	Joe Davenport
Evan Meek	67.7	5.58	5.18	1.33	75	-0.5	Marty McLeary
Justin Germano	119.0	4.61	2.34	1.59	74	-0.5	Tim McClaskey
Randy Wells	63.0	5.00	4.43	1.86	69	-0.6	Chris Rojas
Doug Mathis	91.0	4.75	5.24	1.58	69	-0.8	Ryan Jensen
Armando Rodriguez	66.7	7.29	4.72	2.16	69	-1.0	Bo Hall
Ryan Feierabend	97.3	4.72	3.42	1.94	67	-1.2	Benj Sampson
Scott Richmond	101.0	4.63	4.19	2.23	60	-2.0	R.A. Dickey

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.