Archive for April, 2014

Pitcher Contracts, Classified

Yesterday, I classified every contract for a position player currently on a 40-man roster. Today we turn our attention to the pitchers.

As of Sunday night, April 6th, there were 613 pitchers on a 40-man roster. Many pitchers with season-long injuries are on their team’s 60-day disabled list and have been moved off the 40-man roster. This includes Matt Harvey, Patrick Corbin, Derek Holland and Cory Luebke, to name a few. You won’t see those names below and I have not included them in the 612-pitcher total.

Before we get to the tables, here are the highlights:
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In Celebration of Chris Sale

Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball, and by definition, that makes him also the best pitcher in the National League. In the American League, though, things are not quite as clear. The AL is home to a handful of truly excellent pitchers, and differentiating between them is the ultimate in picking nits. The last four Cy Young Awards have been won by Max Scherzer (still awesome), David Price (him too), Justin Verlander (yep), and Felix Hernandez (ditto), and they’re all still — for now, at least — in the American League. Yu Darvish hasn’t won a Cy Young Award yet, but he was the consensus favorite among the FanGraphs staff in our preseason picks. That’s a pretty fantastic starting five, and I’d have no qualms with anyone making an argument on behalf of any one of those as the AL’s premier starting pitcher.

But the more I watch him pitch, the more I think I might just pick Chris Sale.

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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 4/8/14

9:01
Jeff Sullivan: Hey everybody and welcome to baseball live-chat.

9:01
Jeff Sullivan: Today we’ll discuss many of the things that I already know about in baseball, and fewer of the things that I would have to research in order to provide an informative response to a prompt

9:01
Comment From Daniel Poarch
IS it time to baseball live-chat?

9:01
Jeff Sullivan: Yes

9:01
Comment From jocephus
who won, you or the wasps

9:02
Jeff Sullivan: I got one wasp out but I suspect there is another somewhere in my living room because I heard a rattle in the blinds.

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The Perils of Very Long Contract Extensions for Pitchers

On the morning after the opening game of the season, the first Australia game between the Dodgers and Diamondbacks, I had a phone conversation with a scouting friend. The first thing out of both our mouths was basically the same – “Did you see Kershaw? 88 MPH! Didn’t look comfortable on the mound. Seemed to be laboring, etc., etc., etc..” Clayton Kershaw most certainly did not look like himself that day, and now will not likely pitch until May due to an upper back injury. While this may – hopefully – turn out to be nothing more than a minor blip in his overall career body of work, the fact that he only recently signed a record (for a pitcher) seven-year, $215M contract extension is the elephant in the room.

What if Kershaw’s days as a force of nature are over, or numbered? Why has the industry’s perfectly understandable previous aversion to extremely long contract extensions for pitchers seemingly been cast aside? What does the future hold for the recent beneficiaries – like Kershaw, Felix Hernandez and Justin Verlander – of the clubs’ recent change in approach? Let’s take a look at some names from the game’s past to get a feel for these pitchers’ respective futures. Read the rest of this entry »


Q&A: Kyle Lohse, Milwaukee Brewers Pitcher

When I asked Kyle Lohse if he’ll be a pitching coach someday, his response was, “In some ways, I already am.” The 35-year-old right-hander is more than a mentor to the younger members of the Milwaukee Brewers’ pitching staff. Last season he led the club in innings pitched [198.2] and ERA [3.35]. Two years ago, with the St. Louis Cardinals, he threw 211 innings and had a 2.86 ERA. Lohse relies on control. Since breaking into the big leagues in 2001 he has walked just 2.5 batters per nine innings.

Lohse talked about his evolution as a pitcher, including the formative years he spent working with Dave Duncan, when the Brewers visited Fenway Park over the weekend. Read the rest of this entry »


Effectively Wild Episode 423: Analyzing Early April Trends

Ben and Sam discuss whether they’re buying several statistical developments from the season’s first week.


FanGraphs Audio: Dave Cameron Analyzes All 2014 Season

Episode 438
Dave Cameron is both (a) the managing editor of FanGraphs and (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio — during which edition he analyzes real major-league baseball that has happened in 2014.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 39 min play time.)

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A Week with Jose Abreu

It is inarguably a great thrill to bear witness to the major-league debut of a top pitching prospect. It felt, for example, like the nation set aside whatever else it was doing to watch Stephen Strasburg blaze his way through the Pittsburgh Pirates on ESPN. You hear about the makeup and you hear about the stuff, and when it comes time for the debut, you’re looking for the pitcher to confirm the expectations you’ve had for him for months, if not years. You want evidence the guy’s as good as you already believe. Pitching prospects are aces long before they’re actual aces.

It’s a very different story with a player like Jose Abreu. He’s a prospect, yes, and there’s excitement there, sure, but Abreu is more of an unknown, no matter how much the White Sox committed to him. With a lot of inexperienced players, you’re looking for expectations to be confirmed. With Abreu, you’re looking for expectations to be set. This is the discovery period — we’re all learning the things we’re supposed to know about Jose Abreu down the road. What is there to be said about Jose Abreu after just his first week?

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A One-Start Comp for Masahiro Tanaka

The first batter Masahiro Tanaka ever faced in a regular-season game in the majors hit a home run. On Tanaka’s third-ever pitch, Melky Cabrera blasted Tanaka’s signature splitter, and just that quickly was the fairy tale smashed. There would be no season-opening whiff or shutout, and Tanaka might’ve figured the home run would stick with him for the length of his career. And that much is true, in that the game was documented, and Cabrera’s homer is something people will always be able to look up. But no one thinks of Yu Darvish and remembers that his career began with a four-pitch walk of Chone Figgins. No one thinks of Daisuke Matsuzaka and remembers that his career began with a single by David DeJesus. No one thinks of Stephen Strasburg and remembers that his career began with a 2-and-0 line drive by Andrew McCutchen. People will remember Tanaka for however Tanaka performs overall, and, one start in, it seems there’s an awful lot to like.

Which should surprise absolutely no one. Tanaka isn’t just a rookie — he’s a rookie recently given a nine-figure contract. Against the Jays, he threw two-thirds of his pitches for strikes. He kept the ball on the ground, outside of the dinger, and he didn’t issue a single walk while he struck the hitter out eight times. It was, granted, a Jays lineup without Jose Reyes, but it was a Jays lineup with everybody else, and Tanaka needed very little time to settle in and find a dominant groove. And along the way, he happened to pitch a lot like another front-of-the-rotation American League arm.

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Yunel Escobar and the Value of Chemistry Revisited

Yunel Escobar apparently is not into playing hard to get. He reportedly “commandeered” Andrew Friedman during spring training to begin extension talks. Those talks led to the contract extension announced this past weekend: $5 million for 2015 — which replaced the $5 million club option from his prior contract — $7 million in 2016 and a 2017 club option for $7 million, with a $1 million buyout. Given the apparent rise in the price of wins, the deal is almost a no-brainer for the team. It almost sets aside the question whether Escobar fits into the team’s future depth chart while simultaneously raising some curious questions about the value of clubhouse chemistry.

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