Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 4/8/14

April 8, 2014

9:01	Jeff Sullivan: Hey everybody and welcome to baseball live-chat.

9:01	Jeff Sullivan: Today we’ll discuss many of the things that I already know about in baseball, and fewer of the things that I would have to research in order to provide an informative response to a prompt

9:01	Comment From Daniel Poarch IS it time to baseball live-chat?

9:01	Jeff Sullivan: Yes

9:01	Comment From jocephus who won, you or the wasps

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: I got one wasp out but I suspect there is another somewhere in my living room because I heard a rattle in the blinds.

9:02	Comment From Guest How many years would you offer Sandoval? He turns 28 in August, but with all those concerns about his approach to fitness you’d have to think teams are not willing to go more than 3 years with vesting options.

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Vesting options seem like the way to go here so your recommendation isn’t out of line. I might be willing to stretch it to four years guaranteed — for all the concerns about his conditioning, he’s never really been a below-average player.

9:05	Comment From hooha What surprised you the most in the first week?

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: I was in no way prepared for Josh Hamilton to start watching balls out of the zone

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: And if you’d like the opposite of a surprise, Mike Moustakas is 0-for-18

9:06	Comment From Guest When will Bryce harper start hitting

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Tomorrow he gets to face Jacob Turner, so that seems like a reasonable bet

9:07	Comment From Ryan Jameson Taillon 🙁 When do you think he debuts now?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: That is such a bummer

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Looking 2015 post-ASB

9:08	Comment From Guesting Which contending team do you feel is one injury to a key player from becoming a bottom feeder? It would seem most teams are winning due to quality depth these days.

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: The obvious and correct answer is the Angels, who are Mike Trout + pretty bad

9:09	Comment From Matt Moore Care to offer a prediction on how long I’ll be out for?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: The Rays say they’re not that worried at this point so I’ll go with…just under a month

9:10	Comment From Jon b. belt’s ceiling for this season? any shot at 30hr?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: low shot

9:10	Comment From kevinthecomic So, Mike Moustakas, officially a bust now? How soon until he is playing for the Nippon Ham Fighters?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Well no, nothing about him has changed in a week, and he wasn’t officially a bust a week ago

9:10	Comment From john its April 8 and I am pretty sure my fantasy season is over. just wanted everyone to know that.

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: That is very interesting to everybody

9:10	Comment From Bick Hi Jeff! Man, that Infante HBP last night was awful. Fluke accident but there definitely seem to be more injuries this year than in the past. Thoughts?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Can’t imagine there’s anything to it. One, we don’t know for certain that injuries are up. Two, it’s not like anything systematic has changed about the game. This might just be a high tide.

9:11	Comment From Guest Some baseball oracle wrote this prescient piece: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl… . Somebody get that guy a TV deal

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: You don’t know how badly I’m hoping the Marlins keep playing good baseball. If the Marlins win 90 and Casey McGehee mashes the ball then it’s like, almost literally anything is possible in this sport

9:13	Comment From Reddickulous Reddick getting sent down to keep Fuld on the roster? Reddickulous! That said… I like the cut of Fuld’

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Sam Fuld’s career: 2.1 WAR

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Josh Reddick last year: 2.7 WAR

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: If Reddick does disappear, it’ll be only temporary. He’s still one of the team’s best players

9:15	Comment From American League Hustle Hey Jeff. Hope all is well today! Should we be concerned about the drop in Sonny Gray’s velocity early on? Also, why do you think he’s throwing from a different spot on the mound this season?

9:17

Jeff Sullivan: I’m not worried yet and it wasn’t only his velocity that seemed to be down on Sunday which makes me think there might’ve been something about the PITCHf/x calibration. As for his release point, he has a history of mechanical tweaks and it looks like he might’ve somewhat dropped his arm and shifted a bit toward 3B side but I’m going to wait a good month before I really start getting interested in this on a meaningful level.

9:18	Comment From Dewey Toronto seems to be in a very tough spot with no payroll space and sparse available talent to trade away/for. AA’s attempt to “go all in” might just be his worse move ever (suggesting he should have waited on the prospects)?

9:20

Jeff Sullivan: It sure seems like they didn’t give up too much, overall, for what they received. The idea wasn’t a bad one and a year ago the Jays did seem like they’d be pretty solid. Things haven’t worked out yet, and they might not ever, but I can’t be too mad at a guy for trying to win soon without coughing up the entire future.

9:20	Comment From Average Fantasy Guy Thoughts on Jenrry Mejia? Can pitch 100+ innings and sustain that nice K:BB ratio from the end of last season?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: You mean the 6.8 K/BB ratio? No

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: But I’m fairly comfortable with him as a starting option nevertheless. It usually takes a lot for me to give up on a guy as a starter and Mejia appears to have the necessary repertoire to last, given his health

9:22	Comment From kevinthecomic Who has the skills to be the Yankees closer in Robertson’s absence: Kelley, Betances, Warren, Phelps, someone else?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Kelley

9:22	Comment From Bryan Please provide any insight on Pineda’s start. He was hanging around 93 on the fastball. Was the off speed stuff looking good enough to play with the diminished velocity?

9:23

Jeff Sullivan: The neat thing about Pineda is that he throws a lot of strikes so even though he’s a two-pitch pitcher, you can’t just eliminate the slider as something he throws out of the zone. I think he threw something like 27 of 33 sliders for strikes? And his velocity, while lower than it was in the past, wasn’t by any means bad for a first start in April after missing so much time. Lots of reasons to be encouraged by Pineda after one turn, and I think he might actually have it in him to be reliable this season

9:24	Comment From toot toot how much do you believe in paxton?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: More than the majority of people

9:24	Comment From Guest Is it possible to put a weight limit for a player as a vesting stipulation?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: http://www.philly.com/phill…

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: “Each time he makes weight, Young receives $100,000. The first three times he must weigh 230 pounds or less. He must weigh 235 pounds or less for the last three weigh-ins.”

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Guessing it can’t be used as a vesting stipulation, but it seems like you can include conditioning incentives?

9:25	Comment From marechal Given things like velocity, control and whiff rates, is it fair to re-evaluate pre-season projections of Pineda? How do you see him going forward?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: What were the preseason projections of Pineda?

9:26	Comment From Job Wouldn’t the Giants better be served long-term to go with Posey at 3B once Sandoval departs?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: If Sandoval departs, sure, that would be an interesting and potentially worthwhile experiment

9:27	Comment From Dewey You think Sandoval gets more on the FA market than what the Giants are willing to offer?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Based on the Pence/Lincecum examples, no

9:28

Jeff Sullivan: But it could be that the Giants are just too frustrated with him, and more frustrated than another team that hasn’t been dealing with his conditioning issues. Could end up one of those cases where a player leaves a team and undershoots projections for reasons the initial team might’ve known about

9:28	Comment From Jim Should the M´s sign Kendrys right now? Hart and Morrison are terrible

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Bryce Harper’s batting .143. Allen Craig’s at .115. Emilio Bonifacio’s at .500.

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t like Morrison very much either, but the solution there is to just play Michael Saunders, who the Mariners already have.

9:29	Comment From Ryan Jeff! Please help! What is wrong with Sonny Gray? Should we be worried about his velocity? My A’s need him badly with all of our depth issues with starters now.

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Same as with everyone: keep a close eye and don’t panic before it’s time to panic. I don’t think these velocities are necessarily unusual given how early it is in the season

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: http://www.brooksbaseball.n…

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Gray also made progress between his first two starts, so

9:32	Comment From Yard Dog Home much leash does Billy Hamilton have before he gets sent back to AAA?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: I’d say he has maybe a longer leash than he should

9:33	Comment From Grand Admiral Braun If David Price is not to be dealt this season, will teams have interest in say, Edwin Jackson? He will have 2.3 years left on a contract come the deadline in July and is being paid like a 2-3 Win pitcher. Any chance the Cubs can deal him for a B-prospect?

9:34

Jeff Sullivan: He’s basically got something like the Ricky Nolasco deal, with one fewer year remaining, so while I could see the Cubs moving the contract come midseason if Jackson has a fine enough start, I don’t know about a B-prospect. He’s getting paid right around his market value, so his surplus value is small, so a team wouldn’t want to give up real quality youth in exchange.

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: The real haul is likely to come in return for Samardzija

9:35	Comment From Grand Admiral Braun Matt Lindstrom: BAD

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Nate Jones: hurt

9:35	Comment From Dan Will the Tigers offense score enough runs this year? Their lineup looks pretty iffy at best.

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: They’re currently leading baseball in wRC+

9:36	Comment From Ruki Mike Moustakas has a -51 wRC+. -51!

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: It’s always funny when a guy has a minus in a stat with a plus in it

9:36	Comment From B I’ve got front row tickets right beside the dugout for an upcoming game in which my favorite team will be the visitors. I’ve never had such good seats. What should I take? Camera? Glove? Baseball? Other collectibles? Any tips to really put the experience over the top?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Don’t spend more than, I don’t know, five minutes on your smartphone

9:37	Comment From Cory So Prince Fielder is hitting 148 with awful defense, no power, and only two walks. Very small sample size but this can’t be encouraging considering the downward trend he’s been on right?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Correct, it is not encouraging to be bad

9:38	Comment From shawk If a pitcher hits the on deck batter, does a batter take a base? Would Sean Barber call it a strike?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: http://www.baseballprospect…

9:39	Comment From Grand Admiral Braun Eovaldi’s upside: #2 starter?

9:39	Comment From SK Can Eovaldi maintain a K/inning from here out?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Interestingly, somewhat, Eovaldi this year is still running a worse-than-average contact rate allowed

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: But I like that he’s a strike-thrower so his stuff could conceivably play up. He’s a 3/4 who might be a tweak away from finding a new level, not unlike his teammate Henderson Alvarez

9:40	Comment From zack Fact or Fiction: The Marlins will finish .500?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Fiction, they’re bad

9:40	Comment From Bret Is Matt Moore gonna have Tommy John surgery?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: The Rays don’t think so

9:40	Comment From Guest Will Jay Bruce once again hit .270/.330/.500 and continue to do so until the end of time?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: At some point either he will die or all the record-keeping observers will

9:41	Comment From McExpos Are we going to look back at 2014 as the year that “Honestly?” Abe Almonte made every game interesting, win or lose? He’s fascinating even when he’s making mistakes.

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Every team should have a player that athletic and raw

9:41	Comment From James You worried about the Klubermeister? His wildness in his last start leads me to believe he may be hurt.

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: How reactionary do you think I am?

9:41	Comment From Ruki How’s the weather?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: AWESOME

9:42	Comment From Guesting When I heard about the hamstring injury to Teixeira I figured Kendrys Morales was going to be a Yankee by Friday. But no rumors to speak of…

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: If Kendrys Morales were a first baseman he’d be a Pirate

9:42	Comment From Kimball Was looking at BABIP, and noticed that while Cano’s current .450 is obviously not sustainable, he’s historically above average in that dept. He makes a lot of quality contact, obviously, but that also belies his lazy reputation, no?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Well, he’s a line-drive hitter, and while I don’t care about his reputation, it’s possible to be both a line-drive hitter and lazy

9:43	Comment From Bart Since Robertson is on the DL, Shawn Kelley will be the closer. How much do you know about him and do think it could be closer by committee with Warren and Phelps mixed in as well?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Fastball/slider guy with a kind of unusual slider that allows him to get by without a platoon split. But he’s an extreme fly-baller so that’s where the pain is

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Kelley is an overall fine reliever who will blow the occasional lead in 10 seconds

9:44	Comment From Robbie What do you think of Mike Zunino? Hope he´s not only an “Arencibia” type of player

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Arencibia would be an unfortunate outcome, John Buck would be an almost likely outcome, and the dream is something like Jason Varitek

9:45	Comment From Rated Rookie The Chris Archer-Yordano Ventura matchup tonight could a whole lot of beautiful/ugly.

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Recommended viewing:

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: An hour of Ross vs. Kluber

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Two hours of Archer vs. Ventura

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: and then close things down with Paxton vs. go get snacks in the other half-innings

9:47	Comment From jevant How much money could I have earned on predicting a Solarte-Jeter-Roberts-Cervelli Yankees infield a year out on April 8, 2013?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: If you made that kind of prediction a year ago, and it came through, and you won a bet, the other guy would be all kinds of suspicious and you’d probably get your legs broke

9:47	Comment From Ruki Doesn’t that make the false assumption the Angels are a contending team?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: The Angels are pretty good, you freaks

9:47	Comment From SK Does Kershaw’s injury linger and lead to something worse?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: The reason they’re being so patient is to try and prevent that from happening

9:48	Comment From zack Do you think there is anything to the theory being advanced by Harold Reynolds that injuries among young players are increasing because kids start playing baseball all year round from a very young age?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: I mean, maybe, but for one thing I’d need to see evidence of increased injury rates, and for another, it could just be that pitchers are trying to develop themselves more quickly than their bodies would normally allow

9:49	Comment From SK Over/Under 120 games played for Jose Reyes in 2014?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Over

9:49	Comment From Daniel Best pitcher in the AL?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: I like Darvish

9:50	Comment From Sam One baseball executive floated the idea of 7 inning games to combat both game time length and pitcher innings. It’ll never happen, but what are your thoughts on the idea?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: There are other, better ways to get to the desired end

9:50	Comment From Reddickulous Yordano Ventura (anagram: Annoy Tar Devour) is starting today! Expectations for the early going as a starter?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: I have lower expectations than people who really love fast fastballs do

9:51	Comment From Curtis You think Paxton is legit? Seems like there is a lot of doubt but he was a top prospect.

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: I am probably more supportive than I should be but he has three pretty good pitches from the left side, his command isn’t awful, and he actually has the mental game down pat so he pitches intelligently, too

9:52	Comment From Ryan AL ROY – Abreu, Tanaka, Bogaerts, or the field? What are your impressions on those first three players?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Tanaka, then Abreu, then Bogaerts. Don’t have many questions about the first one. Abreu, I’d like to see draw a walk eventually. Bogaerts is just already dependable but I think Abreu ends up with better numbers in the categories voters pay attention to

9:54	Comment From SK Over/Under 100 RBI for Giancarlo Stanton? His career high is 87.

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Well he’s already off to a good start, right? So what the hell, I’ll say a little over, I like that Yelich is in front of him

9:55	Comment From Jtt When looking at batter/splitter splits, which number “wins”? A left handed pitcher who dominates lefties, facing a left handed batter who dominates lefties. What is the outcome?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: That’s why we have the odds ratio method! Both splits matter and you effectively compromise

9:55	Comment From Huey Impressed with what you see from T.Skaggs?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Two extra miles per hour? Yeah, that gets my attention

9:56	Comment From john If you were Mets, would you be giving Duda an extended look, or is it already apparent to everyone but them that Davis is the better option?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: They’re almost the same damn hitter. It doesn’t even really matter, they just need to pick

9:57	Comment From AmericaninGermany Fister and Infante are both injured, if Peralta and/or Fielder gets injured next, does that prove that Dombrowski has satanic powers?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Explain his shortstop position

9:58	Comment From B The Reds are employing the shift this season, and they’ve been beat to death by it. Are they doing something wrong?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: They’ve allowed the third-lowest BABIP in baseball

9:59	Comment From Mike How much would you love a Marlins v Mariners ws?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: A lot! About as much as I’d love a anyone v Mariners world series

9:59	Comment From Leper Edison Volquez: anything to see here?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Probably not, but he’s more interesting in Pittsburgh than he’d be almost anywhere else, possibly excluding Chicago (AL)