Archive for May, 2014

The Worst of the Best: The Month’s Wildest Swings

Hey there, people who were six once, and welcome to the second part of the year’s first edition of The Worst Of The Best. Here is a link to Thursday’s first part, and here is a link to the complete series archive. If you were to explore that archive and go back to 2013, you’d find several apologies for how the second parts tend not to feature very much event diversity. This is the part about wild swings, and by my methodology, the overwhelming majority of the wild swings come on two-strike swings at stuff in the dirt. Here’s an excerpt from a post from the middle of last August:

With the wildest swings, almost invariably we end up with five swings at two-strike breaking balls in the dirt. That’s just the way it is, and of course all those swings are ill-advised, but part of the fun is supposed to be the surprise, and here we don’t really get many surprises. I don’t know what to do about that and it’s too late in 2013 to just up and change the methodology. […] I am sorry. I’ll have to figure some stuff out before 2014.

I never got around to figuring any stuff out. So you’re going to see the same stupid predictable crap as always. I’ll have to figure some stuff out before 2015.

Below, the wildest swings of the season, up through the end of April. Featured in some detail is a top-five list. Provided with less detail is a next-five list, and there are also two bonus inclusions. It’s all based on PITCHf/x data, so I can only work with what I’m given, and I don’t count checked swings or swing attempts on hit-and-runs. I only want to highlight hitters who decided to swing on their own, and who didn’t think better of it in the middle. These are swings at pitches furthest from the center of the strike zone. I repeat this every time but I’m sure you got the message ages ago. Let’s load some .gifs and laugh at some millionaires.

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Is This Troy Tulowitzki’s Year?

In the early going, much of the coverage on the Rockies has centered around Charlie Blackmon’s leap from irrelevance. Overshadowed during that time has been the even better start by Troy Tulowitzki. While generally regarded as one of the best players in the game, Tulowitzki frequently goes overlooked. But his hot start has put him in position to squarely insert himself in the Most Valuable Player Award discussion.

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Expected Run Differentials

A few weeks ago, I posted an early look at the wOBA differential for each team in Major League Baseball. By simply focusing on the linear weight value of the hits that teams have both accrued and allowed, I think we get a better look at a team’s actual performance, rather than including the noise that comes from the sequences of events, which is inherently baked into runs and wins. wOBA differential is a nice, easy way to look at a team’s performance without the effects of sequencing, and provides a nice guideline as to who is actually playing well at the time.

However, wOBA isn’t an an all-encompassing stat, and the wOBA differential tables always have to come with some caveats. Baserunning, for instance, isn’t included in wOBA, so wOBA differential will overrate teams with lumbering sluggers who don’t convert baserunners into runs at a normal rate. And there are even a few extra omissions on the run prevention side of things, as wOBA allowed only measures the outs-on-balls-in-play aspects of fielding, and not the outs-on-the-bases aspects, so teams that are good at throwing out runners, preventing steals, or turning double plays are underrated by wOBA differential as well.

But, in looking at those flaws, we actually have data for all of those events here on FanGraphs. We track the run value of a team’s baserunning, and both UZR and DRS include components to reward teams for turning double plays or throwing out advancing runners (or discouraging runners from advancing to begin with) from the outfield. So, since these are fixable flaws, I decided to take wOBA differential a couple of steps further and turn it into expected run differential.

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Joey Votto and Protection Up Front

Twice this offseason, Joey Votto has uttered a comment that goes against the baseball orthodoxy that lineup protection is best done behind the hitter. Votto believes it is done in front of him, and is best done by Billy Hamilton.

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Baseball Chat – Jason Collette

11:46
Jason Collette: Good day! You can start adding questions to the queue. Will begin answering them just before noon.

11:57
Michael F. Weber via Twitter :

  Zorilla has a message for #RedSox fans. #Rays #BeatBoston #DHSweep pic.twitter.com/mOVM7K4ven
11:58
Comment From I changed names!
The angels put Mike Trout on the block (hypothetically), how many teams have the chips to actually get him?

    Jason Collette: Chips & cash? One – Boston 

11:59
Comment From Rated Rookie
Better things ahead for Chris Archer? Seems like not so many strikeouts and lots of hard contact. I mean, that’s what it looks like when MLB.TV isn’t buffering.

    Jason Collette: He looked fantastic yesterday through the first 4 innings and then completely lost his release point. 

11:59
Jason Collette: Be right back – auto glass guy just showed up. Oh yea, never go to dealerships that crack your windshield while doing an oil change on your car and then say the car was like that when you brought it in.

12:08
Jason Collette: OK, sorry. Back. Let’s get rolling!

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FG on Fox: The Padres Extra Strikes

The Padres are a team that always just kind of blends in. They do little to call attention to themselves, and they seldom excel in any particular category. Right now, they’re a few games under .500, close to the race without being actively involved in the race, and they appear set for another season best described as inoffensive.

Per usual, the Padres are a team without star players. At the moment, they’re featuring baseball’s worst team offense. They have a middle-of-the-pack rotation, and they have a fine if slightly overachieving bullpen. The team defense, as a group, has been right around the league average. In a lot of ways, this Padres team is unremarkable. In still more ways, this Padres team is worse than that.

But there’s one area where the Padres have been better than anyone else. One area where the Padres might continue to be at least among the league leaders. It’s an area that doesn’t get a whole lot of attention, but is gaining traction every month. The Padres have gotten to pitch to the best strike zone in the majors.

Read the rest at FoxSports.com.


NERD Game Scores for Friday, May 2, 2014

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

***

Most Highly Rated Game
Washington at Philadelphia | 19:05 ET
Stephen Strasburg (34.0 IP, 55 xFIP-, 1.0 WAR) faces Cliff Lee (41.0 IP, 66 xFIP-, 1.3 WAR) — which pairing the reader will recognize as one of the league’s most compelling possible ones. A brief inspection of the former’s player profile reveals that the Strasburg has actually conceded about twice as many runs as his defense-independent numbers would suggest. Said player profile also reveals that Strasburg has produced a 31.0% swinging-strike rate by means of his changeup thus far — greater than twice the typical league average for that pitch.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Washington Radio.

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Prospect Watch: Danish, Borden, and Araiza

Each weekday during the minor-league season, FanGraphs is providing a status update on multiple rookie-eligible players. Note that Age denotes the relevant prospect’s baseball age (i.e. as of July 1st of the current year); Top-15, the prospect’s place on Marc Hulet’s preseason organizational list; and Top-100, that same prospect’s rank on Hulet’s overall top-100 list.

***
Tyler Danish, RHP, Chicago White Sox (Profile)
Level: Low-A   Age: 19   Top-15: 12th   Top-100: N/A
Line: 26 IP, 23 H, 8 R, 17/6 K/BB, 1.04 ERA, 2.99 FIP

Summary
This 2013 2nd-rounder is a unique mix of skills and drawbacks.

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Dan Uggla on Hitting (and Not Hitting)

Dan Uggla isn’t the most popular player in Atlanta, and he has only himself to blame. The well-compensated second baseman has hit .213/.320/.399 since being acquired from the Marlins prior to the 2011 season. After going deep 36 times in his first year in a Braves uniform, he’s seen his power numbers plummet. His K rate has climbed.

Uggla isn’t necessarily cooked. The ability to drive a baseball is still there, and his OBP skills – always good for a low-average hitter – haven’t completely deserted him. At 34 years old, he’s not over the hill. It’s a matter of rediscovering his stroke, which he readily admits is easier said than done.

Uggla talked about his struggles, and what it will take to regain his old form, prior to a mid-April game at Turner Field.

——

Ugla on his approach: “When I first broke in, I was more of a hitter. I wasn’t worried about home runs at all. I knew I had power. But after a few years of hitting a lot of home runs, I kind of… you have to be mentally strong enough to stay within yourself and just try to hit the ball hard where it’s pitched. The last couple of years, whether it was because of coming to a new city, getting a new contract, or whatever, I got caught up in trying too hard and wanting to hit home runs. I let my approach get away from me. It’s been a huge challenge to get back to where I was. I doubt I’ll ever be known as a hitter that hits home runs, as opposed to a guy that hits homers and swings and misses a lot.

“I’ve always been a see-ball-hit-ball guy. The difference the last couple years is that when I’ve seen a pitch in the zone, it’s been an automatic, ‘I can hit a homer on this pitch,’ rather than, ‘Just see it and hit it hard where it’s pitched, and if it goes out it goes out.’ My approach hasn’t changed as far as looking in zones or sitting on pitches – it’s still see-ball-hit-ball – I’m just not hitting as well as I did.”

On walks and strikeouts: “Some people draw a bunch of [walks] and some people don’t. You can look at it a couple different ways. For guys who can hurt you with one swing — the 30-homer guys — pitchers are going to be more careful. They’re going to try to pick around you a little more. They’re going to throw more balls out of the zone, more junk in the dirt. You get better at laying off those pitches. At the same time, guys who don’t walk a lot make more contact when they swing the bat. I’ve been making a little more contact this year, so my walk rate is down. That’s fine. Everything is going to pan out the way it’s supposed to pan out.

Joey Votto makes a lot of hard contact and walks a lot. Freddie Freeman makes a lot of hard contact and doesn’t walk a lot. Guys like me and Russell Branyan… we’re not really cutting down our swings with two strikes. We’re just trying to be selective and battle. We can still go deep with two strikes.

“If it was after 2011, I’d say you could look at my career and say what you want about strikeouts and I’ll prove you wrong every time. But the last two years it has been a problem. It does need to be addressed. I didn’t drive in 90 runs and hit 30 homers, so there has to be an adjustment made. I have to get my swing back to where I’m making more contact so I can drive in runs. That’s whether it’s with home runs, two-out base hits, or whatever. Last year there were way too many strikeouts and not enough production.”

On Three True Outcomes and advanced stats: “I’ve heard [TTO] a lot in the last few years. I probably wasn’t on that list when I was in Florida, but that’s the perception here in Atlanta. Everybody looks at batting average, but when you get to this level it’s all about run production. I’ve always been a guy who produces runs. Even though I had the worst year of my career last year, I still drove in almost 60. That’s not good by my standards, by any means, but it’s not terrible.

“My on-base percentage was somewhere around .300 and when you hit .180 that’s hard to do. That’s been a big thing for me. I’ve always had a pretty good on-base percentage, whether I hit .240-something or .280-something. I’ve been close to scoring 100 and driving in 100, and that’s what’s most important to me.

“I don’t look at WAR and stuff like that. I’m familiar with it – things like ‘The Shredder’ on MLB Network – but I know how people view me. None of that matters. Last year was tough because I wasn’t able to live up to my usual self, but everyone is going to have a down year. I know what I’ve done in my career, and I know what I’m capable of.”

On his swing: “I had a lot of bad things going on in my pre-swing last year and that led to my swing not being very good. My setup wasn’t letting me get to the right spot to recognize pitches and put the barrel on the ball. I was missing pitches I should be hitting. I wasn’t in sync mechanically. There’s a huge connection between mental and physical. Being mentally strong is important, and mechanically… all the years before, I was always able to hit. If you threw a 99-mph fastball and I was ready for it, I was going to hit it. Last year that wasn’t the case. It was more that if I hit it, I got lucky. I’m trying to fix that. It’s definitely a work in progress, but I feel great this year. I haven’t got hot yet, but I’m feeling better and better every day.”


Effectively Wild Episode 441: Dirk Hayhurst on the Profits and Perils of Player-Media Relations

Ben and Sam talk to Dirk Hayhurst about the sticky subject of player-media relations from the perspective of a person who’s been on both sides of the mic.