Not too long ago, Dave ran through his annual trade value series. Predictably, he ranked the most valuable player in baseball as being Mike Trout. Less predictably, but still predictably, he ranked the most anti-valuable player in baseball as being Albert Pujols. Mike Trout and Albert Pujols are teammates! A fun question, then, that showed up in a chat: does Pujols cancel Trout out? In other words, would it make sense for the Angels to package Trout and Pujols together for nothing? It’s totally hypothetical and unrealistic, but it’s an awesome thought experiment, and when Dave ran the numbers, he determined that, no, the package still has value because Trout is that amazing.

So, we’ll never see a trade involving Albert Pujols to offset Mike Trout. But perhaps we could see a deal with a similar design. Playing the part of Pujols: Matt Kemp. Playing the part of Trout: not a guy like Trout at all, but an interesting and talented young prospect. See, it would appear the Dodgers are motivated to move Kemp to another team, and given his salary commitment, there are a few ways the Dodgers could make Kemp more appealing.

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Over the last few weeks, the Dodgers have been one of the primary suitors linked to a potential David Price trade, along with the Mariners and Cardinals. However, the Rays hot streak has made Price’s availability an open question, and now, perhaps the more likely scenario is that the team could trade for Jon Lester instead. The Red Sox playoff odds are down to about 3%, and Lester has publicly said that he won’t hold it against the team if they trade when it comes to offseason negotiations for a new contract. Given those two variables, trading Lester makes a lot of sense, and the Dodgers are apparently quite interested in him as well.

I’d like to make a suggestion to Ned Coletti, however: you don’t need to do it. In fact, you probably shouldn’t.

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At different points in his career, Dallas Keuchel has thrown a slurve and a spike curve. Due to ineffectiveness and injury, he’s had to step down his usage of either breaking ball over his short career. But they’ll be back.

The first breaking ball Keuchel ever threw was a slurve back in high school. But when he got to college, pitching coach Dave Jorn showed him a three-finger change up grip. In what is almost a pitchfork style grip, Keuchel’s thumb doesn’t touch the ball. Perhaps it’s that loose grip that’s given him the third-largest horizontal movement on his change among lefty starters in the game.

The pitchfork grip that launched a career.

Along with his low-90s sinker, that change gave him enough weapons to get by without using his breaking pitch much in college.

That arsenal served him well, but felt he needed a breaking pitch. He had “lost feel for the slurve” he used to have while in high school and so he “came up with a couple spike grips.” One won out, and it helped him advance through the minor leagues. It was good enough.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Washington at Miami | 19:10 ET
Jordan Zimmermann (118.0 IP, 84 xFIP-, 2.7 WAR) faces Nathan Eovaldi (130.2 IP, 108 xFIP-, 1.8 WAR). The virtues of the former are manifest. As for the latter, despite having posted merely average-ish fielding-independent numbers, he’s also recorded an overall strike rate (66.4%) and average fastball velocity (95.6 mph) one and two standard deviations, respectively, better than the mean produced by starting pitchers this season. A recipe, that, for tolerable baseball.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Washington Radio.

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In a series of three GIFs from Friday night’s baseballing match between the Indians of Cleveland and the Royals of Kansas City, I’ll attempt to visually encapsulate Carlos Santana’s 2014 season to date:
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Ben and Sam talk to Sports Illustrated’s Jay Jaffe about Hall of Fame induction weekend and the latest changes to the election process.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
New York NL at Milwaukee | 14:10 ET
Jacob deGrom (80.2 IP, 90 xFIP-, 1.3 WAR) faces Jimmy Nelson (16.0 IP, 115 xFIP-, 0.2 WAR). The former, as illustrated by the table below and further supported by this hyperlink to the relevant leaderboard, has recorded the best park-adjusted xFIP among all qualified starters in July so far.

The 26-year-old deGrom faces a Milwaukee club which possesses the highest current odds of winning the NL Central division.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Milwaukee Radio or New York NL Television.

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The Minnesota Twins have learned to love the shift. According to Baseball Info Solutions, Ron Gardenhire’s club went into the All-Star break having shifted on 251 balls in play, 13th-most in baseball. Last year they shifted just 84 times on balls in play, sixth-fewest in baseball.

Paul Molitor is in charge of Minnesota’s infield defense. The Hall of Famer assumed the role prior to this season, and the modernization of the team’s approach has been in the works since he took over. In January, Molitor told MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger, “The game has changed so much; we’re seeing more overshifts and people not afraid to give up space based on tendencies, so it’s something I’m excited about learning about and applying to the way we play defense.”

When I talked to Molitor last month, it was apparent he’s learned a lot. And while he was clearly still forming opinions on certain specifics, he seemed pleased with the results he’d seen.

“I discussed it with Gardy [manager Ron Gardenhire] before the season and we decided if it would increase our chances of getting outs, we were going to go ahead and try it,” Molitor told me. “Sometimes it’s a little dicey because hitters are smart and some will react to the defense. They have enough confidence and bat control to counteract what you’re doing. But I’d have to say that more times than not, our shifts have worked fairly well. We’ve been burned a few times, as have most teams, but overall it’s been working in our favor.”

Molitor’s mention of confidence prompted me to ask about the psychological aspect. If a hitter is thinking about – and possibly questioning – his approach, has the defense already gained an advantage? Read the rest of this entry »

The Red Sox and Giants struck a Saturday morning near-trading deadline special, with Jake Peavy headed west in exchange for pitching prospects Edwin Escobar and Heath Hembree, with the clubs splitting Peavy’s $5M remaining 2014 salary. As with most of this month’s trades to date, real, actual, solid prospects were netted by the selling club. In this case, they’re both pretty close to big league ready. Before anyone rushes to call this a clear win for the Giants – Peavy is 1-9, 4.72, for the season, after all – let’s take a closer look at what the Giants are getting, and how Peavy fits into his new environment. Read the rest of this entry »