| 7:57 |
: Time for someone’s dream to die! It’s the AL wild-card playoff!
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| 7:58 |
: A’s
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| 7:58 |
: A’s
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| 7:59 |
Hey Mariners fans–your bandwagon team of the postseason? |
| 7:59 |
: For some reason I always end up pulling for the A’s. Dave’s hardly a Mariners fan and he can’t speak for himself yet
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| 8:00 |
I’m on antibiotics and painkillers for an infection so I can’t drink so if you would drink extra for me it would be greatly appreciated. |
The AL Wild Card game rosters and line-ups are out, and there were a few interesting decisions made. Let’s look at those decisions, while remembering that the expected outcome in choosing the alternative is mostly the same, as line-up decisions don’t matter all that much in the grand scheme of things. They can matter a little bit, though, and in a winner-take-all elimination game, every little bit is worth talking about.
Firs, the A’s line-up against James Shields, with their projected wOBA by Steamer:
The marathon regular season is over, and the middle-distance sprint that is the playoffs is about to begin. The Pirates will host the Giants on Wednesday in the NL Wild Card game, and now that the dust has settled, it appears that righty Edinson Volquez is the Bucs’ choice to take on Giants’ ace southpaw Madison Bumgarner. Many have pointed to Volquez’ relatively lofty 4.15 FIP as a rationale to bypass him in favor of other options – my gut is that the Pirates have chosen the right guy. Read the rest of this entry »
Tonight, the Royals and A’s play a single-game elimination to determine the winner of the American League Wild Card, with the winner going on to face the Angels starting on Thursday. Both teams have their best starters on the mound, and Jon Lester versus James Shields is about as good a match-up as you can hope for in a winner-take-all contest. With these two starters, strong defenses, and a pitcher’s park as the venue, we shouldn’t expect a ton of runs to be scored in tonight’s game.
And so the managers for each squad are likely going to feel the pressure to try and steal a run here or there, knowing that in a low run environment, every little advantage could turn out to be the difference between advancement or the end of the team’s season. So, against that background, let’s offer Ned Yost some friendly pieces of advice.
| 9:01 |
: Everybody ready to baseball chat?
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| 9:02 |
: One minute late this time! New recent record!
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| 9:02 |
Is Fangraphs looking at replacing FIP with SIERA as the main ingredient to pitcher WAR? |
| 9:02 |
: I don’t think we’ve ever even discussed SIERA in our meetings for years
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| 9:03 |
: Granted, Dave and Dave talk about things I’m not privy to, but I haven’t heard anything to that effect
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| 9:03 |
Best team that didn’t make the playoffs? |
The Giants saved their ace for the Wild Card game. Though Madison Bumgarner has been a snot-rocket champion for some time, and a top pitcher, he’s turned it up a notch the last two seasons. A couple adjustments — one in approach and the other in mechanics — seem to have fueled this latest improvement. Those changes can also provide us the nitty gritty to watch for when he takes the mound with the Giants’ postseason on the line tomorrow.
A little over two years ago, shortly before I joined FanGraphs, Yoenis Cespedes faced Tyler Robertson, who is a pitcher, and got ahead in the count 3-and-0. There is no more favorable count than 3-and-0, which meant Cespedes was in the position of power, and then he went and completed what for my money is one of the most memorable plate appearances in recent baseball history. Memorable to me, if to nobody else.
Three years ago, Edinson Volquez was one of the worst pitchers in baseball. Two years ago, thanks in large part to calling Petco Park home for the first time, he was just okay, putting up a 1.1 WAR season that is still his second-best WAR year ever. One year ago, he was one of the worst pitchers in baseball, but even that requires some further detail, because the Padres took the exceptionally rare step of DFA’ing him less than a week before the September roster expansion when they didn’t even have a full 40-man roster. When the Dodgers picked him up for depth a few days later, he didn’t make the NLDS roster, then never threw a pitch when he was surprisingly added to the NLCS roster.
On Wednesday, Volquez is going to start for the Pirates in the one-game, no-tomorrow NL wild card game against the Giants. Oh, baseball. You’re so great and terrible and weird, all at the same time.
Ben and Sam discuss the AL wild-card showdown between the A’s and the Royals.
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Episode 490
Dave Cameron is both (a) the managing editor of FanGraphs and (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio — during which edition he discusses the looming playoffs and, notably, the mid-week wild-card games.
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.
You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.
Audio after the jump. (Approximately 36 min play time.)
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