Archive for September, 2014

Sunday Notes: Calhoun the Catalyst, Pompey’s Expectations, Dubon’s Red Sox Mission

“He’s quietly grown from a kid who was a senior sign out of Arizona State to one of the best lead-off hitters in baseball. He doesn’t get a lot of fanfare compared to other guys on our team, but he’s been an essential component to what we’ve done this year.”

Those words were spoken by Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim manager Mike Scioscia, who I asked about Kole Calhoun. I knew right away that I had my lede. A more accurate and concise description of the overshadowed outfielder might not be possible.

Calhoun has been a catalyst. In 112 games – an early-season ankle injury cost him five weeks – he’s hitting .287/.338/.473 with 28 doubles and 16 home runs. On a team with no shortage of star power, he ranks second in wRC+ and third in WAR.

Despite his low profile, the production is par for the course. Calhoun hit .320 with a .948 OPS in the minors, and last year he logged a .282/.347/.462 slash line in 222 plate appearances as a 25-year-old rookie.

The performance has surpassed the projection. The 2010 eighth-round pick came into last season as the No. 11 prospect in an Angels system that Baseball America ranked dead last among the 30 teams. His writeup in the Prospect Handbook said “Calhoun’s tools are uninspiring.”

The skeptics weren’t wholly irrational in their reasoning. Calhoun is 5-foot-11 and his shiny stats on the farm came in the homer-friendly Pioneer, California and Pacific Coast Leagues. In the opinion of the lefty swinger, the venues were an afterthought. All he cared about was growing his game.

“Even if you’re in a good hitting environment, there are still going to be slumps,” said Calhoun. “The places I was at were definitely good places to hit, and that helps you gain confidence, but I still had my ups and downs. Plus, it didn’t really affect what I was trying to do. I’ve never been a huge power hitter. I’ve just been a hitter.”

Calhoun feels he performs better when keep things simple. The trick is figuring out how to stay consistent over the course of a long season. It’s not always easy.

“It’s a constant battle, to get to where you feel you can walk into that box and beat the guy on the mound,” said Calhoun. “There are days when you’re on top of the world and there are days when you’re not. When you’re not, you have to find a way. You need that feeling, which is why you work so hard in the cage. You want to get to a point where it’s, ‘I feel good, I feel good.’”

There have been plenty of good feelings in the Angels dugout this summer. No team in baseball has scored as many runs, and a lot of the credit goes to the player at the top of the order. When leading off an inning, Calhoun is getting on base at a .385 clip. As often as not, he’s the one jump-starting the Angels offense.

“Hitting is contagious,” opined Calhoun. “If you’re on a good team with good hitters, everybody is talking hitting and everybody is enjoying hitting. When you have that going, everybody hits. This is an awesome offense I’m part of.”

Going into Saturday night, the Angels had scored 88 runs over their last nine games, all of which went into the Win column. Not coincidentally, Calhoun was 15 for 42 over that stretch. His OPS in games won by the Angels this year is .944. In losses it is .566.

Hitting is contagious, but is the same true for slumps? If a few guys begin scuffling, is there a snowball effect?

“There can be,” admitted Calhoun. “That’s the name of the game, man. It’s baseball. There are going to be ups and downs and we all try to avoid the downs. But the fact of the matter is, everybody on this team can hit. With an offense like this, there are going to be more ups, and the ups are definitely a lot more fun.”

——

Dalton Pompey has to pinch himself when he wakes up in the morning. The 21-year-old native of Mississauga, Ontario, Canada began the year in High-A. Now he’s in Toronto, suiting up for his hometown Blue Jays.

It’s been a whirlwind season for the switch-hitting outfielder. A 16th round pick in 2010, Pompey has catapulted himself from promising prospect to star-in-the-making faster than you can say Lloyd Moseby. Hopscotching through Dunedin, New Hampshire and Buffalo he hit a combined .317/.392/.469 and stole 43 bases. Since his call-up, he’s made four pinch-running appearances and driven in a run with a ground out in his only at bat,

Pompey is well-grounded. Humble to a fault, he admits he’s far exceeded his own expectations this summer. His goals were to reach Double-A and to be placed on the 40-man roster in order to not be subject to the Rule 5 draft.

You might expect Pompey’s head to be spinning given his rapid ascent, but it’s not. A big reason his results caught up to his talent was that he learned how to slow the game down. Steve Springer, who the Blue Jays employ as a “performance coach” deserves much of the credit.

“I call him every week and he helps me with the mental side of the game,” explained Pompey. “He’s helped me learn to focus on controlling the things I can control. We’ve been talking since I was drafted, but I feel I’ve really bought into that approach this year. The mental side of the game is huge. It can shield you from reaching your full potential. So much of this game is in your head.”

Pompey admitted he’s always been hard on himself, and in many ways still is. He feels the difference is that he’s now “picking spots when to be critical” rather than letting every bad game get him down. An 0-for-4 is no longer a trigger for self-doubt, but rather an opportunity to learn from what just transpired. He feels there are positives to take from every experience, regardless of the result.

Learning how to deal with failure is necessary for any young player, and Pompey has passed that test with flying colors. Not that he’s a fan of the word.

“I don’t think I’ve ever really failed,” said Pompey. “That’s not how I’d put it. “It’s more that I’ve never lived up to the expectations I have of myself. This year I had expectations and I exceeded those expectations. I’m proud of myself.”

——

Mauricio Dubon wants to be known as a nice guy. He also wants to be a big-league shortstop, which is a lofty goal for a skinny kid from Honduras. It may well happen down the road.

Dubon debuted in the Gulf Coast League last year after being drafted by the Red Sox in the 26h round. Two years earlier, he moved from his Central America homeland to Sacramento, California, to pursue his dream. His path to pro ball was a mission in more ways than one.

“I was blessed to come here,” explained Dubon. “Impact International Baseball Academy comes and gives baseball equipment to kids, and also talk about God. They saw me play and asked me to come back to California with them. I said, ‘Of course.’ It was a chance I’d been waiting for my whole life.”

Dubon grew up playing soccer and baseball, and the latter was his love. Youth tournaments took him to Venezuela, Colombia, Guatemala and the Bronx, New York, but his future in the game loomed a long shot. Scouts said “too skinny” and were skeptical he could handle the rigors of professional baseball. After hitting over .500 in two seasons of high school ball in the States, he’s proceeding to prove them wrong.

Dubon is now 19 years old, and still just 165 pounds soaking wet, but he’s definitely handing pro ball. He was named to the New York-Penn League all-star team this summer after hitting .320/.337/.395 for the Lowell Spinners. There’s not much pop, but there’s plenty of glove. Defensively, he’s a water bug with a strong arm. One longtime Spinners observer compared his glove favorably to Deven Marrero’s at the same level.

Dubon describes his style as “kind of simple but sometimes flashy.” When I talked to him in August, he said he sometimes makes “the Jeter throw, the jump throw from the hole.” As luck would have it, I saw him make that exact play, in spectacular fashion, the same night.

The youngster doesn’t take his God-given skills for granted. His further explanation of what he brings to the table is ample proof.

“Some people say I’m talented and some people say I’m skilled,” said Dubon. “I think there’s a difference. Skill is like you practice every day to try to perfect it. Talent is what comes naturally, and when talent fails, skill can step in and kind of take over. I’m trying to be more skilled than talented. I’ve been working very hard to perfect my defense.”

He’s also striving to be a good teammate and human being, and by all accounts the personable infielder practices what he preaches.

“I want to be known as a good person,” said Dubon. “I’d rather people say, ‘He’s a nice guy,” than ‘He’s a good player but he’s kind of like a doosh.’ I try to say hi to everybody and respect everybody. Hopefully I can get respect back. That’s all I want.”


NERD Game Scores for Saturday, September 13, 2014

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

***

Most Highly Rated Game
Oakland at Seattle | 21:10 ET
Sonny Gray (190.0 IP, 94 xFIP-, 2.7 WAR) faces Felix Hernandez (212.0 IP, 69 xFIP-, 5.7 WAR). After the latter club’s victory over the former last night in Seattle (box), here’s how much the Mariners’ odds of qualifying for a wild-card spot increased: from 42.5% to 55.3%. And here’s how much the Athletics’ decreased: from 91.2% to 88.9%. Finally — and not entirely relevantly — here’s which pitcher both Steamer and ZiPS project to finish just ahead of Felix Hernandez on the American League WAR leaderboard: father of the American Neo-Transcendentalist movement Corey Kluber.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Oakland Radio.

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The Best of FanGraphs: September 8 – September 12, 2014

Each week, we publish north of 100 posts on our various blogs. With this post, we hope to highlight 10 to 15 of them. You can read more on it here. The links below are color coded — green for FanGraphs, brown for RotoGraphs, purple for NotGraphs, dark red for The Hardball Times, orange for TechGraphs and blue for Community Research.
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The Other NL MVP Candidates

The field for the National League Most Valuable Player Award is wide open, and in a good way. There are a bevy of well qualified candidates, and even if voters may now be uncertain as to what do with Giancarlo Stanton now given his injury, there are still three no-doubt top-of-the-ballot candidates: Andrew McCutchen, Clayton Kershaw and Jonathan Lucroy. These three have been in the spotlight all season, and with Stanton, figure to be the ones who take home the hardware. But that doesn’t mean they’re the only ones for whom there is a case worth making. There as many as six other players who deserve recognition, and with white-hot finishing kicks could put themselves into the mix with the top dogs.
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Mike Fiers and Pitching Rattled

Perhaps the biggest problem with sports analysis is believing too strongly in one’s ability to understand the future. Perhaps the biggest problem with sports commentary is believing too strongly in one’s ability to understand the present. We’re always more than happy to play psychiatrist when it comes to discussing people we know and talk to every week, but then we allow this to carry over into sporting events, with completely unfamiliar people trying to navigate completely unfamiliar circumstances. We pretty much never know who a player is, and what he’s going through. That doesn’t stop people from analyzing the activity waves in his brain.

You know what I’m referring to, and it happens with every sport, in particular down the stretch and in the playoffs. Choking. Stepping up. Wilting. Clutch. So many people offer so many psychological explanations, yet, we never know whether there’s actually any truth. They’re just explanations after the fact, even though, in every competition, somebody has to win and somebody has to lose. So rarely can we actually speak to the psychology of sport. We don’t know when we’re observing a certain mental state, so we can’t analyze what that means.

Which brings us to Thursday night and Mike Fiers. Let’s say that professional athletes are mentally strong — mentally stronger than most. So let’s say it would take a lot for one to be rattled. What kind of event might rattle more than anything else? I’d volunteer a high hit-by-pitch. When you throw a ball that hits someone around the head, that goes beyond competitive adversity. So given what transpired, perhaps Fiers is an actual, observable example of a player playing while rattled. These examples are exceedingly rare things.

Yet, maybe it still didn’t matter. Turns out this stuff is complicated.

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FanGraphs Audio: Kiley McDaniel Analyzes All of 2015

Episode 483
Kiley McDaniel is both (a) the lead prospect writer for FanGraphs and also (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio — during which edition he discusses, among other important issues, the 2015 draft.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 45 min play time.)

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The Most Unheralded Reliever in Baseball

Who is the best reliever in baseball over the last two years? If we made a list, the usual suspects would shoot straight to the top. Craig Kimbrel is a given, Koji Uehara was essentially unhittable for one calendar year, Kenley Jansen skews “untouchable” and Aroldis Chapman is in his own world. Greg Holland and Wade Davis surely jump to mind without much searching, Sean Doolittle and David Robertson deserve attention for their high-leverage work.

There is one reliever that is conspicuously absent from that list (because I excluded him!) but since the start of the 2013 season, this closer boasts some unbelievable numbers. Pitching to 41 ERA- (fifth best among qualified relievers) and a 51 FIP- (third) while posting roughly 5 RA9-WAR and 4 fWAR, both of which place him among the elite stoppers in baseball.

The reliever in question is Mark Melancon, the setup guy-come-closer for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Melancon went from being well-traveled to a brief sting in AAA to become the very best of a stout group of relievers holding the Pirates in the playoff race for the second straight season.

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FG on Fox: What’s Wrong With Yasiel Puig’s Swing?

It seems like forever ago now, but earlier — in this very season! — Yasiel Puig was probably the hottest hitter in baseball. A blistering month of May lifted his OPS into four-digit territory, and articles like, say, this one were getting written:

We’re talking about a guy who, through this point in his career, has been a better hitter than almost all of the greatest hitters of all-time. And he seems to be getting better. The story of Puig’s rookie year focused heavily on the parts of his game that reminded everyone of Manny Ramirez. Perhaps we shouldn’t miss out on the fact that he’s hitting like an in-his-prime Manny Ramirez as well.

Nothing about that block quote was wrong. Nothing about that article was wrong. Puig was an absolute terror, and he was showing signs of getting even better. Earlier — in this very season! — Puig looked like one of the very most valuable players. But the minute you try to predict baseball, it shapeshifts into something unrecognizable and mean, and now articles like, say, this one are getting written:

OK, enough. Enough waiting for the Golden Boy to become an overnight sensation or last year’s overnight sensation to get going again.
[…]
It’s time to start Andre Ethier in center again.

You probably don’t need to get caught up, but I’ll catch you up. Puig at the end of July: .958 OPS. Puig since the start of August: .523 OPS. That .523 OPS comes with zero homers and three doubles, each of them separated by more than a week. Puig drove in a run the other day. It was the first time he’d done that since August 15. There are luck-slumps and there are performance-slumps, and right now, Yasiel Puig is stuck in a performance-slump that everyone’s noticed.

Read the rest on Just A Bit Outside.


New Padre Elliot Morris Flashes Power Stuff

When our other prospect writers submit scouting reports, I will provide a short background and industry consensus tool grades. There are two reasons for this: 1) giving context to account for the writer seeing a bad outing (never threw his changeup, coming back from injury, etc.) and 2) not making him go on about the player’s background or speculate about what may have happened in other outings.

The writer still grades the tools based on what they saw, I’m just letting the reader know what he would’ve seen in many other games from this season, particularly with young players that may be fatigued late in the season. The grades are presented as present/future on the 20-80 scouting scale and very shortly I’ll publish a series going into more depth explaining these grades. -Kiley

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Nicholas Minnix Baseball Chat – 9/12/14

11:44
Nicholas Minnix: Hello, everyone! I’ll be with you at the top of the hour!

12:00
Comment From Guest
Hey Nick, Im in need of a Slg boost in 4×4, im looking at Pearce, Vogt, Rasmus or Stubbs? Unless you have any better suggestions. Thanks

12:01
Nicholas Minnix: SLG boost, gotta be Pearce, I think. Vogt may not play again reg season, also.

12:01
Comment From Hamilton Porter
Over/under: 3.5 MLB homers for Sano next season

12:01
Nicholas Minnix: I’ll take the under.

12:01
Comment From Brad
Hi Nick: Hh pts league weekly lineups. Next week for ss? Peralta 6 games, Aybar 7 games, Xander 6 games or Rutledge 7 games at coors. Thanks.

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