2015 ZiPS Projections – Cincinnati Reds

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Cincinnati Reds. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Oakland / Pittsburgh / San Diego / San Francisco / St. Louis / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Texas / Washington.

Batters
For a club that was compelled to trade some useful major-league pieces this offseason, the Cincinnati Reds feature a remarkably competent and seemingly competitive group of hitters. Depending on how one chooses to determine such a thing, the star of team (per ZiPS) is either Todd Frazier (605 PA, 3.6 WAR) or Joey Votto (468 PA, 3.4 WAR) — the former for his overall WAR projection; the latter, for his projected WAR per plate appearance. It’s not surprising to find something less than full complement of games forecast for Votto: two of his last three seasons have been interrupted by injury.

So far as weak links, however, there’s little to be found among Cincinnati’s starting eight field players. The batting projections for Zack Cozart (.282 wOBA), Billy Hamilton (.310 wOBA), and Brandon Phillips (.303 wOBA) are all below average, but each of those players is also projected to save five or more runs at a position already on the more challenging side of the defensive spectrum.

Pitchers
Right-hander Johnny Cueto recorded just over 243 innings last year, rendering him and David Price (who threw 248) the first two pitchers to cross that particular (and somewhat arbitrary) threshold since James Shields and Justin Verlander did it in 2011. Like all swords, the metaphorical one concerning a pitcher who’s sustained a heavy workload is double-edged. On the one hand, it’s an indication that he’s capable of sustaining a heavy workload; on the other, the act of having sustained a heavy workload raises obvious questions about his future health. In this case, ZiPS doesn’t project a repeat performance. Indeed, Cueto’s 181.1-inning forecast isn’t even the largest on his own team.

In 2014, for the sixth consecutive season, Cueto produced a markedly better ERA than FIP — and produced a better runs-based WAR than FIP-based one. ZiPS does call for this trend to continue: the 10-point gap between Cueto’s ERA and FIP index figures (76 ERA-, 86 FIP-) is among the largest — if not the largest — ZiPS has projected.

Bench/Prospects
Acquired in the trade that sent Alfredo Simon to Detroit, infielder Eugenio Suarez features the best projection (567 PA, 2.2 WAR) among those players unlikely to be included in the club’s opening-day lineup. The club’s top hitting prospect, Jesse Winker, is forecast to produce a league-average batting line already (or the equivalent in the minor leagues). Michael Lorenzen (81.1 IP, 0.1 WAR) and Robert Stephenson (119.1, -0.6 WAR) are the team’s top-two pitching prospects according to Kiley McDaniel, but neither is projected to provide much assistance to the major-league club, yet. Right-hander Josh Smith (148.0 IP, 0.5 WAR) features the top forecast among rookie-eligible pitchers.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Reds, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Todd Frazier	R	29	3B	605	80	141	26	3	25	84	13	6
Joey Votto	L	31	1B	468	61	104	24	1	15	51	4	3
Billy Hamilton	B	24	CF	621	82	149	24	9	6	51	63	18
Devin Mesoraco	R	27	C	401	49	91	20	0	18	63	1	2
Jay Bruce	L	28	RF	615	87	140	30	2	28	95	10	3
Marlon Byrd	R	37	RF	563	74	142	26	3	26	91	2	3
Eugenio Suarez	R	23	SS	567	62	127	25	4	13	50	10	8
Brandon Phillips	R	34	2B	569	66	138	25	1	13	72	6	4
Zack Cozart	R	29	SS	570	66	129	26	4	9	48	5	0
Tucker Barnhart	B	24	C	392	37	85	14	3	4	31	1	1
Ramon Cabrera	B	25	C	499	47	117	23	2	4	41	2	1
Ivan DeJesus	R	28	SS	431	44	97	17	3	5	39	3	2
Jesse Winker	L	21	LF	433	59	93	17	2	16	55	4	1
Kristopher Negron	R	29	SS	394	41	78	16	3	8	35	11	2
Jermaine Curtis	R	27	3B	385	39	83	12	1	2	26	5	1
Brayan Pena	B	33	C	291	21	70	13	1	4	26	1	2
Ryan LaMarre	R	26	CF	354	36	75	11	2	5	27	15	8
Chad Wallach	R	23	C	389	46	76	16	1	4	33	2	0
Josh Satin	R	30	3B	506	58	106	22	1	10	48	1	3
Neftali Soto	R	26	3B	452	47	101	21	0	12	50	1	1
Ruben Gotay	B	32	2B	506	58	103	16	1	12	46	5	3
Lou Marson	R	29	C	99	11	18	3	1	0	4	2	1
Jack Hannahan	L	35	3B	181	15	36	7	1	2	15	0	1
Juan Silva	L	24	RF	403	46	85	14	3	5	33	23	14
Brennan Boesch	L	30	RF	389	45	90	17	3	16	48	6	2
Kyle Skipworth	L	25	C	322	35	58	10	2	13	36	1	2
Corky Miller	R	39	C	105	8	20	5	0	2	10	0	0
Kyle Waldrop	L	23	RF	563	66	135	26	4	13	58	13	7
Yorman Rodriguez	R	22	CF	564	65	125	23	5	10	52	9	5
Jason Bourgeois	R	33	CF	463	51	107	14	3	3	33	16	7
Donald Lutz	L	26	LF	408	44	85	17	3	12	47	5	2
Felix Perez	L	30	RF	479	50	108	23	2	9	49	2	3
Marquez Smith	R	30	1B	424	51	87	18	2	10	44	1	0
Juan Duran	R	23	RF	437	51	89	15	2	18	54	3	5
Skip Schumaker	L	35	2B	308	28	68	13	1	2	27	2	1
Irving Falu	B	32	2B	434	39	98	12	3	3	28	11	8
Thomas Neal	R	27	1B	405	47	91	16	1	6	36	4	3
Ray Chang	R	31	2B	249	22	53	9	0	1	17	1	2
Steve Selsky	R	25	LF	446	47	93	15	2	5	36	6	4
Hernan Iribarren	L	31	LF	320	28	65	9	2	2	20	6	2
Mike Costanzo	L	31	1B	318	32	56	11	1	9	30	1	2

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Todd Frazier	605	7.6%	21.3%	.196	.293	.258	.323	.454	.340
Joey Votto	468	18.6%	20.1%	.190	.332	.279	.417	.469	.377
Billy Hamilton	621	6.9%	20.6%	.106	.327	.262	.314	.368	.310
Devin Mesoraco	401	8.5%	20.7%	.207	.281	.255	.327	.462	.339
Jay Bruce	615	9.3%	26.8%	.215	.310	.255	.326	.470	.340
Marlon Byrd	563	5.0%	28.2%	.210	.338	.271	.314	.481	.340
Eugenio Suarez	567	7.1%	22.8%	.140	.306	.248	.311	.388	.307
Brandon Phillips	569	5.1%	13.9%	.126	.285	.263	.307	.389	.303
Zack Cozart	570	4.7%	16.1%	.115	.278	.244	.284	.359	.282
Tucker Barnhart	392	7.7%	18.4%	.091	.288	.240	.299	.331	.278
Ramon Cabrera	499	6.8%	12.0%	.085	.283	.254	.305	.339	.287
Ivan DeJesus	431	7.2%	22.0%	.097	.311	.247	.303	.344	.288
Jesse Winker	433	9.9%	25.9%	.179	.296	.241	.319	.420	.329
Kristopher Negron	394	5.1%	27.4%	.127	.283	.216	.267	.343	.273
Jermaine Curtis	385	9.9%	13.0%	.060	.286	.249	.340	.309	.298
Brayan Pena	291	4.1%	10.7%	.099	.273	.255	.286	.354	.278
Ryan LaMarre	354	7.1%	26.6%	.094	.315	.235	.299	.329	.282
Chad Wallach	389	8.7%	18.3%	.087	.262	.218	.294	.305	.272
Josh Satin	506	10.9%	24.5%	.121	.305	.238	.322	.359	.304
Neftali Soto	452	4.9%	23.5%	.135	.288	.238	.279	.373	.287
Ruben Gotay	506	8.5%	25.1%	.118	.282	.224	.291	.342	.283
Lou Marson	99	14.1%	21.2%	.060	.286	.214	.327	.274	.279
Jack Hannahan	181	8.8%	23.8%	.093	.288	.222	.294	.315	.269
Juan Silva	403	10.7%	26.1%	.099	.325	.240	.324	.339	.296
Brennan Boesch	389	5.7%	20.8%	.196	.276	.249	.293	.445	.322
Kyle Skipworth	322	5.6%	37.6%	.177	.273	.195	.252	.372	.273
Corky Miller	105	5.7%	22.9%	.114	.250	.206	.257	.320	.258
Kyle Waldrop	563	4.6%	24.5%	.137	.319	.255	.290	.392	.299
Yorman Rodriguez	564	6.2%	30.7%	.120	.335	.239	.288	.359	.286
Jason Bourgeois	463	4.8%	10.8%	.067	.271	.246	.283	.313	.266
Donald Lutz	408	5.1%	32.4%	.155	.307	.223	.272	.378	.286
Felix Perez	479	4.0%	20.5%	.120	.285	.239	.275	.359	.277
Marquez Smith	424	8.0%	24.8%	.137	.286	.228	.298	.365	.293
Juan Duran	437	5.9%	40.5%	.178	.330	.218	.265	.396	.289
Skip Schumaker	308	7.5%	16.6%	.075	.291	.244	.305	.319	.278
Irving Falu	434	5.3%	10.6%	.067	.270	.246	.285	.313	.259
Thomas Neal	405	5.9%	21.0%	.097	.301	.245	.302	.342	.287
Ray Chang	249	5.2%	18.1%	.052	.280	.229	.275	.281	.249
Steve Selsky	446	7.2%	29.6%	.085	.330	.233	.301	.318	.278
Hernan Iribarren	320	6.6%	20.0%	.066	.275	.223	.274	.289	.251
Mike Costanzo	318	8.8%	35.5%	.139	.281	.195	.267	.334	.267

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Todd Frazier	605	5.4	110	3	3.6	Brandon Inge
Joey Votto	468	7.3	142	3	3.4	Keith Hernandez
Billy Hamilton	621	4.8	86	9	2.9	Milt Cuyler
Devin Mesoraco	401	5.4	113	0	2.9	Chris Hoiles
Jay Bruce	615	5.6	115	0	2.4	Paul O’Neill
Marlon Byrd	563	5.5	114	3	2.3	Mike Easler
Eugenio Suarez	567	4.2	90	2	2.2	Ron Wotus
Brandon Phillips	569	4.3	89	5	1.9	Cookie Rojas
Zack Cozart	570	3.7	75	8	1.8	Adam Everett
Tucker Barnhart	392	3.5	72	7	1.6	Gregg Zaun
Ramon Cabrera	499	3.8	76	-5	0.8	Cody Mckay
Ivan DeJesus	431	3.7	77	-1	0.8	Eddie Leon
Jesse Winker	433	4.8	100	-4	0.7	Nick Weglarz
Kristopher Negron	394	3.4	66	3	0.6	Jake Wald
Jermaine Curtis	385	3.9	80	-2	0.6	Paul Schaal
Brayan Pena	291	3.6	74	-1	0.4	Steven Norris
Ryan LaMarre	354	3.4	72	1	0.4	Vernon Thomas
Chad Wallach	389	3.2	65	-3	0.3	Brian Moon
Josh Satin	506	4.0	86	-9	0.2	Craig Worthington
Neftali Soto	452	3.7	77	-2	0.1	Eric Hardgrave
Ruben Gotay	506	3.4	73	-2	0.0	Webster Garrison
Lou Marson	99	3.1	67	-3	-0.1	Erik Pappas
Jack Hannahan	181	3.1	67	0	-0.1	Jeff Branson
Juan Silva	403	3.8	82	-1	-0.1	Mike Neill
Brennan Boesch	389	4.7	99	-9	-0.2	Mark Saccomanno
Kyle Skipworth	322	3.0	68	-6	-0.2	Gary Tremblay
Corky Miller	105	2.8	57	-2	-0.2	Tony Pena
Kyle Waldrop	563	4.1	85	-4	-0.3	Francisco Batista
Yorman Rodriguez	564	3.6	76	-8	-0.4	Xavier Paul
Jason Bourgeois	463	3.2	63	-1	-0.5	Doug Glanville
Donald Lutz	408	3.6	76	-1	-0.5	Justin Bowles
Felix Perez	479	3.4	72	3	-0.5	Tommy Davis
Marquez Smith	424	3.8	81	-1	-0.5	Thomas Hubbard
Juan Duran	437	3.5	78	-1	-0.5	Chris Hatcher
Skip Schumaker	308	3.5	71	-6	-0.5	Ron Oester
Irving Falu	434	3.1	64	-2	-0.6	Edgar Caceres
Thomas Neal	405	3.6	76	0	-0.7	Mike Eylward
Ray Chang	249	2.6	53	-2	-0.7	Gary Green
Steve Selsky	446	3.3	70	-1	-0.8	Vernon Thomas
Hernan Iribarren	320	2.8	55	0	-1.1	Marc Sagmoen
Mike Costanzo	318	2.9	64	-3	-1.4	Ryan McGuire

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	K	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Johnny Cueto	R	29	27	27	181.3	163	46	17	150	62	58
Homer Bailey	R	29	27	27	172.7	150	46	19	159	73	68
Mike Leake	R	27	31	31	194.3	136	45	23	197	91	85
Aroldis Chapman	L	27	64	0	63.0	112	26	5	34	13	12
Tony Cingrani	L	25	21	19	104.0	112	49	15	90	49	46
Anthony DeSclafani	R	25	30	24	127.3	98	37	18	130	67	63
Josh Smith	R	27	26	25	148.0	108	60	20	150	81	76
Burke Badenhop	R	32	65	0	64.0	43	15	6	62	27	25
Sam LeCure	R	31	57	0	56.7	54	22	6	51	25	23
Jumbo Diaz	R	31	58	0	58.3	56	24	6	52	26	24
Carlos Contreras	R	24	27	12	74.3	66	46	8	68	40	37
J.J. Hoover	R	27	60	0	64.0	72	28	9	53	29	27
Sean Marshall	L	32	29	0	25.7	27	10	3	23	11	10
Manny Parra	L	32	54	0	45.0	45	19	5	40	20	19
Jon Moscot	R	23	26	26	147.7	107	49	24	153	85	79
Jose Mijares	L	30	52	0	42.3	41	16	4	40	19	18
Michael Lorenzen	R	23	24	16	81.3	57	34	12	83	46	43
Ryan Dennick	L	28	67	0	54.3	45	22	6	51	26	24
Jose Cisnero	R	26	24	0	37.7	37	17	5	34	18	17
Matt Magill	R	25	30	18	102.7	93	69	13	95	59	55
Donovan Hand	R	29	46	6	86.3	59	27	12	89	46	43
David Holmberg	L	23	25	23	129.7	79	53	19	137	76	71
Wilmer Font	R	25	45	0	42.3	42	26	5	37	21	20
Edgar Gonzalez	R	32	16	8	54.7	34	15	9	59	32	30
Matt Maloney	L	31	9	2	19.7	10	4	3	22	12	11
Pedro Villarreal	R	27	39	14	107.0	70	36	15	113	61	57
Logan Ondrusek	R	30	52	0	52.7	47	21	7	51	27	25
Dylan Axelrod	R	29	28	22	132.3	96	46	22	141	78	73
Nate Adcock	R	27	26	10	78.3	46	35	11	82	46	43
Trevor Bell	R	28	14	3	23.3	15	13	4	25	15	14
Carlos Marmol	R	32	39	0	37.0	46	27	6	31	20	19
Scott Diamond	L	28	27	25	150.3	73	37	25	168	90	84
Jonathon Crawford	R	23	18	18	76.3	47	42	10	79	47	44
Jason Marquis	R	36	14	14	80.0	54	32	16	85	50	47
Raisel Iglesias	R	25	23	2	60.3	52	39	8	57	35	33
Adam Russell	R	32	34	0	44.0	35	31	5	42	26	24
Ryan Rowland-Smith	L	32	31	2	45.7	32	23	7	47	28	26
Nick Travieso	R	21	22	22	109.0	72	47	18	116	68	64
Robert Stephenson	R	22	24	24	119.3	115	62	24	116	75	70
Tim Crabbe	R	27	28	19	113.7	76	56	18	121	72	67
Fabio Castillo	R	26	38	2	67.0	50	40	9	67	41	38
Nick Christiani	R	27	45	0	55.7	31	28	8	60	34	32
Amir Garrett	L	23	21	21	95.7	69	52	17	101	64	60
Chad Reineke	R	33	18	13	78.3	43	31	18	93	59	55
Keyvius Sampson	R	24	33	18	101.0	93	70	22	101	73	68
Ismael Guillon	L	23	25	23	107.3	92	84	23	111	82	77
Daniel Corcino	R	24	29	26	139.7	100	84	32	151	106	99

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Johnny Cueto	181.3	740	22.0%	6.2%	.264	2.88	3.25	76	86
Homer Bailey	172.7	723	20.7%	6.4%	.280	3.54	3.53	93	93
Mike Leake	194.3	825	16.5%	5.5%	.284	3.94	3.85	104	102
Aroldis Chapman	63.0	249	45.0%	10.4%	.282	1.71	1.79	45	47
Tony Cingrani	104.0	451	24.8%	10.9%	.277	3.98	4.16	105	110
Anthony DeSclafani	127.3	549	17.9%	6.7%	.289	4.45	4.30	117	113
Josh Smith	148.0	654	16.5%	9.2%	.284	4.62	4.59	122	121
Burke Badenhop	64.0	269	16.0%	5.6%	.275	3.52	3.33	93	88
Sam LeCure	56.7	243	22.2%	9.0%	.283	3.65	3.63	96	96
Jumbo Diaz	58.3	251	22.3%	9.6%	.282	3.70	3.49	98	92
Carlos Contreras	74.3	337	19.6%	13.7%	.282	4.48	4.54	118	120
J.J. Hoover	64.0	273	26.4%	10.3%	.272	3.80	3.78	100	100
Sean Marshall	25.7	110	24.5%	9.1%	.294	3.51	3.75	93	99
Manny Parra	45.0	194	23.2%	9.8%	.282	3.80	3.65	100	96
Jon Moscot	147.7	645	16.6%	7.6%	.282	4.81	4.72	127	125
Jose Mijares	42.3	183	22.4%	8.7%	.303	3.83	3.36	101	89
Michael Lorenzen	81.3	361	15.8%	9.4%	.280	4.76	4.86	126	128
Ryan Dennick	54.3	236	19.1%	9.3%	.280	3.98	3.99	105	105
Jose Cisnero	37.7	164	22.5%	10.4%	.279	4.06	3.97	107	105
Matt Magill	102.7	472	19.7%	14.6%	.282	4.82	4.93	127	130
Donovan Hand	86.3	375	15.7%	7.2%	.283	4.48	4.42	118	117
David Holmberg	129.7	579	13.6%	9.2%	.282	4.93	5.01	130	132
Wilmer Font	42.3	190	22.1%	13.7%	.281	4.25	4.47	112	118
Edgar Gonzalez	54.7	238	14.3%	6.3%	.282	4.94	4.82	130	127
Matt Maloney	19.7	85	11.8%	4.7%	.283	5.03	4.66	133	123
Pedro Villarreal	107.0	470	14.9%	7.7%	.287	4.79	4.63	126	122
Logan Ondrusek	52.7	230	20.4%	9.1%	.286	4.27	4.02	113	106
Dylan Axelrod	132.3	584	16.4%	7.9%	.288	4.96	4.80	131	127
Nate Adcock	78.3	352	13.1%	9.9%	.279	4.94	5.12	130	135
Trevor Bell	23.3	108	13.9%	12.0%	.284	5.40	5.81	143	153
Carlos Marmol	37.0	169	27.2%	16.0%	.284	4.62	4.75	122	125
Scott Diamond	150.3	656	11.1%	5.6%	.277	5.03	4.91	133	130
Jonathon Crawford	76.3	350	13.4%	12.0%	.281	5.19	5.26	137	139
Jason Marquis	80.0	357	15.1%	9.0%	.274	5.29	5.46	140	144
Raisel Iglesias	60.3	277	18.8%	14.1%	.277	4.92	4.83	130	127
Adam Russell	44.0	205	17.1%	15.1%	.282	4.91	4.94	130	130
Ryan Rowland-Smith	45.7	207	15.5%	11.1%	.281	5.12	5.17	135	136
Nick Travieso	109.0	490	14.7%	9.6%	.283	5.28	5.25	139	139
Robert Stephenson	119.3	536	21.5%	11.6%	.281	5.28	5.36	139	142
Tim Crabbe	113.7	518	14.7%	10.8%	.286	5.30	5.32	140	140
Fabio Castillo	67.0	308	16.2%	13.0%	.283	5.10	5.12	135	135
Nick Christiani	55.7	255	12.2%	11.0%	.282	5.17	5.20	137	137
Amir Garrett	95.7	440	15.7%	11.8%	.284	5.64	5.62	149	148
Chad Reineke	78.3	359	12.0%	8.6%	.287	6.32	6.21	167	164
Keyvius Sampson	101.0	474	19.6%	14.8%	.280	6.06	6.19	160	163
Ismael Guillon	107.3	517	17.8%	16.3%	.284	6.46	6.58	171	174
Daniel Corcino	139.7	654	15.3%	12.8%	.277	6.38	6.46	168	171

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Johnny Cueto	181.3	8.09	2.28	0.84	133	4.8	Ben McDonald
Homer Bailey	172.7	7.82	2.40	0.99	108	3.0	Kris Benson
Mike Leake	194.3	6.30	2.08	1.07	97	2.4	Lary Sorensen
Aroldis Chapman	63.0	16.00	3.71	0.71	224	1.9	Billy Wagner
Tony Cingrani	104.0	9.69	4.24	1.30	96	1.2	Oliver Perez
Anthony DeSclafani	127.3	6.93	2.62	1.27	86	0.7	Chien-Ming Wang
Josh Smith	148.0	6.57	3.65	1.22	83	0.5	Jeremy Guthrie
Burke Badenhop	64.0	6.05	2.11	0.84	109	0.5	Ron Taylor
Sam LeCure	56.7	8.57	3.49	0.95	105	0.3	David Holdridge
Jumbo Diaz	58.3	8.64	3.70	0.93	104	0.3	David Holdridge
Carlos Contreras	74.3	7.99	5.57	0.97	86	0.3	Ricky Stone
J.J. Hoover	64.0	10.13	3.94	1.27	101	0.2	Bo Donaldson
Sean Marshall	25.7	9.46	3.50	1.05	109	0.2	Mike Munoz
Manny Parra	45.0	9.00	3.80	1.00	101	0.2	Eddie Oropesa
Jon Moscot	147.7	6.52	2.99	1.46	80	0.2	Bronson Arroyo
Jose Mijares	42.3	8.72	3.40	0.85	100	0.1	Jeff Kaiser
Michael Lorenzen	81.3	6.31	3.76	1.33	81	0.1	Ryan Houston
Ryan Dennick	54.3	7.46	3.65	0.99	96	0.1	Javier Lopez
Jose Cisnero	37.7	8.83	4.06	1.19	94	0.0	Santiago Casilla
Matt Magill	102.7	8.15	6.05	1.14	80	0.0	Kevin Coffman
Donovan Hand	86.3	6.15	2.82	1.25	86	0.0	Dale Mohorcic
David Holmberg	129.7	5.48	3.68	1.32	78	-0.1	Kris Detmers
Wilmer Font	42.3	8.94	5.53	1.06	90	-0.1	Josh Banks
Edgar Gonzalez	54.7	5.59	2.47	1.48	78	-0.1	Sam Arrington
Matt Maloney	19.7	4.57	1.83	1.37	76	-0.1	Johnny Gee
Pedro Villarreal	107.0	5.89	3.03	1.26	80	-0.1	Vicente Bonilla
Logan Ondrusek	52.7	8.03	3.59	1.20	90	-0.1	Bo Donaldson
Dylan Axelrod	132.3	6.53	3.13	1.50	77	-0.2	Kip Bouknight
Nate Adcock	78.3	5.29	4.02	1.26	78	-0.2	Gerrit Simpson
Trevor Bell	23.3	5.79	5.02	1.55	71	-0.2	Gary Neibauer
Carlos Marmol	37.0	11.19	6.57	1.46	83	-0.3	Archie Corbin
Scott Diamond	150.3	4.37	2.22	1.50	76	-0.3	Scott Downs
Jonathon Crawford	76.3	5.54	4.95	1.18	74	-0.3	Kevin Hodges
Jason Marquis	80.0	6.08	3.60	1.80	73	-0.4	Scott Erickson
Raisel Iglesias	60.3	7.76	5.82	1.19	78	-0.4	Edwardo Sierra
Adam Russell	44.0	7.16	6.34	1.02	78	-0.5	Jerry Johnson
Ryan Rowland-Smith	45.7	6.30	4.53	1.38	75	-0.5	Dan Smith
Nick Travieso	109.0	5.94	3.88	1.49	73	-0.5	Ryan Glynn
Robert Stephenson	119.3	8.68	4.68	1.81	73	-0.6	Matt Peterson
Tim Crabbe	113.7	6.02	4.43	1.42	72	-0.7	Jose Segura
Fabio Castillo	67.0	6.72	5.37	1.21	75	-0.7	Ramser Correa
Nick Christiani	55.7	5.01	4.52	1.29	74	-0.8	Mario Ramos
Amir Garrett	95.7	6.49	4.89	1.60	68	-0.9	Alberto Arias
Chad Reineke	78.3	4.94	3.56	2.07	61	-1.5	Alan Benes
Keyvius Sampson	101.0	8.29	6.24	1.96	63	-1.7	Rob Radlosky
Ismael Guillon	107.3	7.72	7.05	1.93	59	-2.2	Bill Murphy
Daniel Corcino	139.7	6.44	5.41	2.06	60	-2.7	Mike Romano

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.