2015 ZiPS Projections – Cincinnati Reds

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Cincinnati Reds. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Oakland / Pittsburgh / San Diego / San Francisco / St. Louis / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Texas / Washington.

Batters
For a club that was compelled to trade some useful major-league pieces this offseason, the Cincinnati Reds feature a remarkably competent and seemingly competitive group of hitters. Depending on how one chooses to determine such a thing, the star of team (per ZiPS) is either Todd Frazier (605 PA, 3.6 WAR) or Joey Votto (468 PA, 3.4 WAR) — the former for his overall WAR projection; the latter, for his projected WAR per plate appearance. It’s not surprising to find something less than full complement of games forecast for Votto: two of his last three seasons have been interrupted by injury.

So far as weak links, however, there’s little to be found among Cincinnati’s starting eight field players. The batting projections for Zack Cozart (.282 wOBA), Billy Hamilton (.310 wOBA), and Brandon Phillips (.303 wOBA) are all below average, but each of those players is also projected to save five or more runs at a position already on the more challenging side of the defensive spectrum.

Pitchers
Right-hander Johnny Cueto recorded just over 243 innings last year, rendering him and David Price (who threw 248) the first two pitchers to cross that particular (and somewhat arbitrary) threshold since James Shields and Justin Verlander did it in 2011. Like all swords, the metaphorical one concerning a pitcher who’s sustained a heavy workload is double-edged. On the one hand, it’s an indication that he’s capable of sustaining a heavy workload; on the other, the act of having sustained a heavy workload raises obvious questions about his future health. In this case, ZiPS doesn’t project a repeat performance. Indeed, Cueto’s 181.1-inning forecast isn’t even the largest on his own team.

In 2014, for the sixth consecutive season, Cueto produced a markedly better ERA than FIP — and produced a better runs-based WAR than FIP-based one. ZiPS does call for this trend to continue: the 10-point gap between Cueto’s ERA and FIP index figures (76 ERA-, 86 FIP-) is among the largest — if not the largest — ZiPS has projected.

Bench/Prospects
Acquired in the trade that sent Alfredo Simon to Detroit, infielder Eugenio Suarez features the best projection (567 PA, 2.2 WAR) among those players unlikely to be included in the club’s opening-day lineup. The club’s top hitting prospect, Jesse Winker, is forecast to produce a league-average batting line already (or the equivalent in the minor leagues). Michael Lorenzen (81.1 IP, 0.1 WAR) and Robert Stephenson (119.1, -0.6 WAR) are the team’s top-two pitching prospects according to Kiley McDaniel, but neither is projected to provide much assistance to the major-league club, yet. Right-hander Josh Smith (148.0 IP, 0.5 WAR) features the top forecast among rookie-eligible pitchers.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Reds, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

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Batters, Rates and Averages

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Batters, Assorted Other

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Pitchers, Counting Stats

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Pitchers, Rates and Averages

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Pitchers, Assorted Other

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.