2015 ZiPS Projections – Los Angeles Angels

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Los Angeles Angels Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Miami / Milwaukee / Tampa Bay.

Batters
Because it’s a statistical model and not a human with a brain and neurotransmitters and a face, the ZiPS projection system is incapable of experiencing or exhibiting signs of anxiety. Were it capable of doing so, however, it apparently still wouldn’t exhibit any anxiety with regard to Mike Trout’s 2014 season — a season during which Trout led all batters by a win, but also trailed the 2013 version of Mike Trout by roughly three wins. One finds that Trout is projected here to produce a 9.6 WAR in 2015 — actually one-tenth of a win greater than his projection from last year.

Elsewhere, ZiPS’ computer math suggests that the Angels nearly have the player they expected when the club signed Josh Hamilton to a five-year, $125 million contract in December of 2012. Unfortunately, the player isn’t Hamilton himself, but rather Kole Calhoun. Over the last two years he’s recorded a 125 wRC+. Josh Hamilton’s career mark, by comparison: 129 wRC+. ZiPS is a bit less optimistic for Calhoun’s 2015 season, but he’s emerged as an excellent hitter for an eighth-round selection who signed for a mere $36 thousand.

Pitchers
For the third consecutive season, right-hander Jered Weaver produced an xFIP- worse than and an ERA- better than league average. Over the course of his career, Weaver has outperformed his raw xFIP by almost an entire run and his FIP by nearly half a run. That’s an excellent skill Weaver has, but assuredly one that renders him difficult to project when nearly every other pitcher can be expected to regress towards his fielding-independent numbers. ZiPS calls for more of the same, however, with Weaver expected to outperform his FIP again by a considerable margin.

By means of his injury-shortened but very excellent 2014 season, right-hander Garrett Richards has distinguished himself as the Angels’ ace. Identifying the club’s No. 2 starter, however — if pressed, for some reason, to perform such a task — is more difficult. The aforementioned Weaver is certainly a possibility, as is C.J. Wilson. Were one to use just one criteria, however — namely the number of wins the relevant pitcher is likely to produce — than Matt Shoemaker would be the answer, according to the ZiPS’ model.

Bench/Prospects
A discussion about the Angels’ top major-league ready prospects apparently — according to this iteration of ZiPS — apparently has to begin with 24-year-old catcher Jett Bandy, who’s projected to produce a higher WAR than either David Freese or Josh Hamilton. Beyond him, it would appear as though shortstop Eric Stamets is a candidate to provide better than replacement-level production almost entirely based on the quality of his defense at shortstop.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Angels, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Mike Trout	R	23	CF	705	113	178	38	10	35	114	23	4
Albert Pujols	R	35	1B	630	77	157	37	1	26	97	6	1
Howie Kendrick	R	31	2B	609	69	158	28	4	10	69	11	5
Kole Calhoun	L	27	RF	575	85	140	29	4	19	71	7	5
Erick Aybar	B	31	SS	614	72	156	31	4	8	63	16	7
Chris Iannetta	R	32	C	350	34	66	14	0	8	37	2	1
Jett Bandy	R	25	C	377	36	78	17	0	8	37	1	3
Josh Hamilton	L	34	LF	499	57	114	23	2	18	69	4	2
David Freese	R	32	3B	509	49	114	22	1	11	58	1	2
Eric Stamets	R	23	SS	493	48	107	19	2	5	37	10	3
Carlos Perez	R	24	C	381	36	80	17	1	5	35	2	1
Shawn O’Malley	B	27	SS	423	44	88	11	5	3	30	14	4
Collin Cowgill	R	29	RF	371	40	80	14	2	6	32	7	2
Gordon Beckham	R	28	2B	528	57	117	27	0	9	47	5	1
Raywilly Gomez	B	25	C	343	30	75	13	0	2	27	1	0
Jose Rondon	R	21	SS	474	41	102	19	3	1	34	11	10
John Buck	R	34	C	330	28	62	10	0	8	36	1	0
Luis Jimenez	R	27	3B	505	51	115	26	2	10	54	10	4
C.J. Cron	R	25	DH	521	51	122	24	2	17	63	2	2
Grant Green	R	27	LF	497	50	120	25	3	8	53	5	5
Vance Albitz	R	27	2B	276	24	61	13	1	2	19	4	2
John McDonald	R	40	3B	92	7	15	2	0	0	6	1	1
Alex Yarbrough	B	23	2B	627	57	146	30	4	6	60	7	5
Mike Bianucci	R	29	RF	365	36	78	16	1	13	43	2	1
Efren Navarro	L	29	1B	544	52	120	26	2	5	48	4	3
Ryan Wheeler	L	26	3B	493	41	104	19	1	8	50	2	2
Kaleb Cowart	L	23	3B	538	46	107	20	3	7	47	15	6
Matt Long	L	28	CF	521	54	100	19	4	8	44	16	5
Ian Stewart	L	30	3B	233	21	36	7	2	5	20	1	1
Roger Kieschnick	L	28	RF	440	45	84	18	3	11	47	4	2

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Mike Trout	705	13.5%	20.7%	.276	.341	.301	.401	.577	.419
Albert Pujols	630	7.1%	11.0%	.204	.270	.274	.329	.478	.340
Howie Kendrick	609	5.6%	17.6%	.117	.330	.281	.326	.398	.314
Kole Calhoun	575	7.5%	19.1%	.179	.303	.266	.322	.445	.336
Erick Aybar	614	4.6%	10.3%	.110	.294	.274	.311	.384	.303
Chris Iannetta	350	14.3%	25.4%	.130	.293	.227	.346	.357	.317
Jett Bandy	377	4.5%	19.1%	.120	.263	.227	.287	.347	.280
Josh Hamilton	499	7.8%	26.1%	.180	.312	.254	.315	.434	.320
David Freese	509	8.3%	23.4%	.125	.312	.249	.320	.374	.309
Eric Stamets	493	3.9%	16.0%	.083	.272	.234	.271	.317	.260
Carlos Perez	381	6.0%	18.6%	.098	.272	.229	.279	.327	.268
Shawn O’Malley	423	6.4%	20.3%	.079	.289	.232	.289	.311	.269
Collin Cowgill	371	7.0%	23.2%	.107	.301	.237	.299	.344	.289
Gordon Beckham	528	5.1%	16.1%	.111	.273	.241	.288	.352	.284
Raywilly Gomez	343	7.0%	14.6%	.061	.278	.240	.296	.301	.268
Jose Rondon	474	4.9%	17.7%	.064	.283	.232	.272	.296	.248
John Buck	330	8.2%	26.4%	.114	.265	.208	.282	.322	.269
Luis Jimenez	505	3.0%	18.4%	.125	.276	.241	.267	.366	.277
C.J. Cron	521	3.5%	20.9%	.161	.285	.248	.284	.409	.303
Grant Green	497	4.2%	20.7%	.118	.311	.257	.292	.375	.293
Vance Albitz	276	4.0%	13.0%	.082	.267	.237	.275	.319	.263
John McDonald	92	6.5%	19.6%	.025	.238	.188	.258	.213	.213
Alex Yarbrough	627	3.3%	22.3%	.093	.306	.245	.268	.338	.265
Mike Bianucci	365	4.4%	26.6%	.167	.277	.228	.268	.395	.292
Efren Navarro	544	7.0%	17.8%	.090	.287	.240	.295	.330	.277
Ryan Wheeler	493	5.1%	25.4%	.098	.289	.227	.266	.325	.259
Kaleb Cowart	538	5.4%	24.9%	.093	.275	.214	.258	.307	.252
Matt Long	521	7.3%	26.5%	.107	.276	.211	.268	.318	.263
Ian Stewart	233	8.2%	36.1%	.124	.254	.171	.249	.295	.244
Roger Kieschnick	440	5.5%	33.2%	.139	.284	.204	.250	.343	.262

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Mike Trout	705	9.2	176	-1	9.6	Mickey Mantle
Albert Pujols	630	5.9	128	5	3.1	Frank McCormick
Howie Kendrick	609	4.9	106	3	3.0	Julio Franco
Kole Calhoun	575	5.2	117	2	2.6	John Stone
Erick Aybar	614	4.5	98	-2	2.4	Tony Fernandez
Chris Iannetta	350	4.3	102	-6	1.5	Chris Hoiles
Jett Bandy	377	3.3	81	3	1.4	Joe Depastino
Josh Hamilton	499	4.9	112	-1	1.4	Geoff Jenkins
David Freese	509	4.2	98	-5	1.3	Travis Fryman
Eric Stamets	493	3.1	68	7	1.2	Fausto Cruz
Carlos Perez	381	3.2	73	2	1.0	Damian Miller
Shawn O’Malley	423	3.3	72	2	0.9	Zach Sorensen
Collin Cowgill	371	3.7	84	6	0.8	George Hinshaw
Gordon Beckham	528	3.7	82	-1	0.8	Patrick Sellers
Raywilly Gomez	343	3.2	72	-2	0.5	Nelson Santovenia
Jose Rondon	474	2.6	63	6	0.5	Geoff Blum
John Buck	330	3.1	73	-4	0.4	Joe Oliver
Luis Jimenez	505	3.5	79	-2	0.4	Cliff Pastornicky
C.J. Cron	521	4.1	95	0	0.2	Andy Marte
Grant Green	497	3.9	89	-1	0.1	Andrew Locke
Vance Albitz	276	3.1	70	0	0.0	Brandon Pinckney
John McDonald	92	1.7	37	2	-0.1	Jim Morrison
Alex Yarbrough	627	3.2	73	-3	-0.3	Charlie Hayes
Mike Bianucci	365	3.7	87	-4	-0.3	Chris Widger
Efren Navarro	544	3.4	79	2	-0.6	Tim Hyers
Ryan Wheeler	493	3.0	69	-4	-0.6	Greg David
Kaleb Cowart	538	2.8	61	-1	-0.7	Chris Truby
Matt Long	521	3.1	67	-6	-0.7	Jon Hamilton
Ian Stewart	233	2.4	55	-3	-0.7	Scott Stahoviak
Roger Kieschnick	440	2.9	68	1	-0.9	Justin Bowles

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	K	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Garrett Richards	R	27	28	28	170.0	154	56	9	144	61	57
Matt Shoemaker	R	28	27	27	166.0	139	34	17	155	67	63
Jered Weaver	R	32	27	27	169.0	131	47	21	157	74	69
C.J. Wilson	L	34	28	28	168.0	145	73	17	159	81	76
Hector Santiago	L	27	31	24	138.7	116	55	15	132	65	61
Tyler Skaggs	L	23	22	21	128.3	105	45	12	123	61	57
Joe Smith	R	31	70	0	64.7	58	19	5	54	22	21
Nick Tropeano	R	24	27	22	131.7	102	44	14	131	67	63
Drew Rucinski	R	26	20	18	104.0	73	30	11	108	52	49
Huston Street	R	31	54	0	50.0	50	13	6	42	18	17
Wade LeBlanc	L	30	33	20	133.0	94	42	16	139	70	65
Vinnie Pestano	R	30	60	0	56.7	61	22	6	49	22	21
Jason Grilli	R	38	52	0	47.0	55	16	4	40	18	17
Kevin Jepsen	R	30	64	0	56.0	59	21	5	48	22	21
Mike Morin	R	24	68	0	69.3	60	18	6	65	29	27
Fernando Salas	R	30	58	0	56.7	54	16	6	52	24	22
Yoslan Herrera	R	34	55	0	62.3	48	22	4	61	27	25
Randy Wolf	L	38	21	17	107.0	77	36	13	112	58	54
Cam Bedrosian	R	23	56	0	63.3	70	31	6	55	28	26
Joe Thatcher	L	33	55	0	32.7	31	8	3	31	14	13
Sean Burnett	L	32	24	0	18.7	18	5	2	17	7	7
Brandon Lyon	R	35	34	0	33.7	25	11	3	33	15	14
Cesar Ramos	L	31	42	5	74.7	59	28	9	72	37	35
Kyler Newby	R	30	39	0	49.3	37	17	4	48	22	21
Cory Rasmus	R	27	56	3	69.7	65	37	8	64	34	32
Danny Reynolds	R	24	45	0	63.3	48	26	5	62	30	28
Dane de la Rosa	R	32	55	0	51.0	43	24	5	47	25	23
Alex Sanabia	R	26	20	18	103.0	69	32	15	112	59	55
Jeremy McBryde	R	28	55	0	56.7	51	24	7	54	28	26
Fernando Nieve	R	32	28	7	63.3	46	28	8	66	35	33
David L. Carpenter	R	27	46	0	60.3	45	26	5	59	30	28
Jairo Diaz	R	24	56	0	66.7	56	27	8	66	34	32
Atahualpa Severino	L	30	40	0	45.0	44	25	6	42	25	23
Ryan Chaffee	R	27	49	0	59.7	54	39	6	56	32	30
Jose Alvarez	L	26	20	16	89.3	49	29	14	101	57	53
Michael Roth	L	25	25	17	95.3	54	45	14	107	62	58
Chris Volstad	R	28	26	24	136.0	61	49	18	159	86	80
Mark Sappington	R	24	35	20	115.3	82	78	19	125	82	77

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Garrett Richards	170.0	710	21.7%	7.9%	.279	3.02	3.10	81	83
Matt Shoemaker	166.0	687	20.2%	4.9%	.280	3.42	3.49	92	93
Jered Weaver	169.0	711	18.4%	6.6%	.268	3.67	4.12	98	110
C.J. Wilson	168.0	736	19.7%	9.9%	.288	4.07	4.11	109	110
Hector Santiago	138.7	603	19.2%	9.1%	.286	3.96	4.18	106	112
Tyler Skaggs	128.3	553	19.0%	8.1%	.288	4.00	3.88	107	104
Joe Smith	64.7	267	21.7%	7.1%	.271	2.92	3.27	78	87
Nick Tropeano	131.7	570	17.9%	7.7%	.290	4.31	4.10	115	110
Drew Rucinski	104.0	450	16.2%	6.7%	.294	4.24	4.14	114	111
Huston Street	50.0	205	24.4%	6.3%	.265	3.06	3.35	82	90
Wade LeBlanc	133.0	580	16.2%	7.2%	.292	4.40	4.34	118	116
Vinnie Pestano	56.7	241	25.3%	9.1%	.286	3.34	3.57	89	96
Jason Grilli	47.0	197	27.9%	8.1%	.300	3.26	2.98	87	80
Kevin Jepsen	56.0	237	24.9%	8.9%	.287	3.37	3.31	90	89
Mike Morin	69.3	291	20.6%	6.2%	.291	3.50	3.30	94	88
Fernando Salas	56.7	238	22.7%	6.7%	.286	3.49	3.34	93	89
Yoslan Herrera	62.3	270	17.8%	8.2%	.294	3.61	3.34	97	89
Randy Wolf	107.0	469	16.4%	7.7%	.293	4.54	4.42	122	118
Cam Bedrosian	63.3	276	25.4%	11.2%	.294	3.69	3.62	99	97
Joe Thatcher	32.7	137	22.6%	5.8%	.304	3.58	3.34	96	90
Sean Burnett	18.7	78	23.0%	6.4%	.288	3.37	3.39	90	91
Brandon Lyon	33.7	145	17.2%	7.6%	.285	3.74	3.69	100	99
Cesar Ramos	74.7	324	18.2%	8.6%	.279	4.22	4.12	113	110
Kyler Newby	49.3	213	17.4%	8.0%	.290	3.83	3.84	103	103
Cory Rasmus	69.7	310	21.0%	11.9%	.283	4.13	4.30	111	115
Danny Reynolds	63.3	278	17.3%	9.4%	.291	3.98	3.96	107	106
Dane de la Rosa	51.0	224	19.2%	10.7%	.278	4.06	4.13	109	111
Alex Sanabia	103.0	453	15.2%	7.1%	.292	4.81	4.73	129	127
Jeremy McBryde	56.7	248	20.6%	9.7%	.290	4.13	4.26	111	114
Fernando Nieve	63.3	284	16.2%	9.9%	.293	4.69	4.79	126	128
David L. Carpenter	60.3	266	16.9%	9.8%	.289	4.18	4.11	112	110
Jairo Diaz	66.7	293	19.1%	9.2%	.293	4.32	4.31	116	115
Atahualpa Severino	45.0	202	21.8%	12.4%	.290	4.60	4.71	123	126
Ryan Chaffee	59.7	274	19.7%	14.2%	.292	4.53	4.69	121	125
Jose Alvarez	89.3	398	12.3%	7.3%	.290	5.34	5.21	143	140
Michael Roth	95.3	438	12.3%	10.3%	.293	5.48	5.48	147	147
Chris Volstad	136.0	616	9.9%	8.0%	.294	5.29	5.19	142	139
Mark Sappington	115.3	549	14.9%	14.2%	.292	6.01	6.03	161	162

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Garrett Richards	170.0	8.15	2.96	0.48	123	3.8	Darryl Kile
Matt Shoemaker	166.0	7.54	1.84	0.92	109	2.9	Kevin Tapani
Jered Weaver	169.0	6.98	2.50	1.12	101	2.3	Ken Schrom
C.J. Wilson	168.0	7.77	3.91	0.91	91	1.5	Tommy Byrne
Hector Santiago	138.7	7.53	3.57	0.97	94	1.3	Kason Gabbard
Tyler Skaggs	128.3	7.37	3.16	0.84	93	1.2	Matt Young
Joe Smith	64.7	8.07	2.64	0.70	127	0.9	Bert Roberge
Nick Tropeano	131.7	6.97	3.01	0.96	86	0.7	Landon Jacobsen
Drew Rucinski	104.0	6.32	2.60	0.95	88	0.7	Jon Perlman
Huston Street	50.0	9.00	2.34	1.08	121	0.6	Blas Minor
Wade LeBlanc	133.0	6.36	2.84	1.08	84	0.5	Huck Flener
Vinnie Pestano	56.7	9.68	3.49	0.95	111	0.4	Derrick Turnbow
Jason Grilli	47.0	10.53	3.06	0.77	114	0.4	Rudy Seanez
Kevin Jepsen	56.0	9.48	3.38	0.80	110	0.4	Steve Andrade
Mike Morin	69.3	7.79	2.34	0.78	106	0.4	Jose Acevedo
Fernando Salas	56.7	8.57	2.54	0.95	106	0.3	Jerry Spradlin
Yoslan Herrera	62.3	6.93	3.18	0.58	103	0.3	Ricky Barlow
Randy Wolf	107.0	6.48	3.03	1.09	82	0.2	Chris Michalak
Cam Bedrosian	63.3	9.95	4.41	0.85	100	0.2	Jeff Innis
Joe Thatcher	32.7	8.53	2.20	0.83	104	0.2	Brian Shouse
Sean Burnett	18.7	8.66	2.41	0.96	110	0.1	Tommy Phelps
Brandon Lyon	33.7	6.68	2.94	0.80	99	0.1	Ken Sanders
Cesar Ramos	74.7	7.11	3.37	1.08	88	0.1	Jeff Schneider
Kyler Newby	49.3	6.75	3.10	0.73	97	0.1	Jose Silva
Cory Rasmus	69.7	8.39	4.78	1.03	90	0.0	Victor Moreno
Danny Reynolds	63.3	6.82	3.70	0.71	93	0.0	Joe Davenport
Dane de la Rosa	51.0	7.59	4.24	0.88	91	-0.1	Jason Bullard
Alex Sanabia	103.0	6.03	2.80	1.31	77	-0.1	Apolinar Garcia
Jeremy McBryde	56.7	8.10	3.81	1.11	90	-0.1	Mike James
Fernando Nieve	63.3	6.54	3.98	1.14	79	-0.2	Mike Sullivan
David L. Carpenter	60.3	6.72	3.88	0.75	89	-0.2	Mike Zimmerman
Jairo Diaz	66.7	7.56	3.64	1.08	86	-0.3	Travis Foley
Atahualpa Severino	45.0	8.80	5.00	1.20	81	-0.4	Billy Brewer
Ryan Chaffee	59.7	8.14	5.88	0.90	82	-0.5	Tomas Santiago
Jose Alvarez	89.3	4.94	2.92	1.41	70	-0.7	Omar Daal
Michael Roth	95.3	5.10	4.25	1.32	68	-1.0	Jason Navarro
Chris Volstad	136.0	4.04	3.24	1.19	70	-1.0	Kip Bouknight
Mark Sappington	115.3	6.40	6.09	1.48	62	-2.0	Mike Romano

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.