2015 ZiPS Projections – New York Mets

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the New York Mets. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Chicago AL / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Oakland / San Francisco / St. Louis / Tampa Bay / Washington.

Batters
Mets batters produced 18.2 WAR collectively in 2014, an almost precisely average figure among the league’s 30 clubs. Given the projections below, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them replicate that effort in 2015. All eight of the team’s likely starters are forecast to produce something between 0.9 and 3.8 WAR — and six of them, between 1.8 to 3.1 WAR.

An area of some interest with regard to the club seems to be how Terry Collins et al. contend with Lucas Duda and Lucas Duda’s difficulties with left-handed pitching. Despite a strong 2014 season, the Mets first baseman produced only a 54 wRC+ against left handers. By way of comparison, the worst overall figure among the game’s 146 qualified batters in 2014 was Zack Cozart’s 56 wRC+. Either John Mayberry (333 PA, -0.1 WAR) or even Eric Campbell (416 PA, 0.5 WAR) are candidates to platoon with Duda.

Pitchers
The order in which the Mets starters appear in the depth-chart image below does not reflect their likely respective positions in the rotation, but rather their projected WAR figures. By this arrangement, one notes, Bartolo Colon descends from second to fifth among the group, while Jacob deGrom ascends from fifth to second. deGrom, a relatively anonymous prospect entering the 2014 season, now features a projection nearly identical — in strikeout rate and walk rate and other assorted metrics — to Matt Harvey’s.

New York recorded the worst and only negative bullpen WAR in the league last year. A combination of roster turnover and the probability of positive regression, however, have rendered the provisional 2015 bullpen a more competent one. Absent from the team almost all of last season due to a Tommy John procedure was Bobby Parnell. He’s absent from the depth-chart image below, as well, but only because he’s unlikely to return right at the beginning of the season. His presence is likely to help the relief corps.

Bench/Prospects
The Mets feature multiple prospects expected to begin the season in the minor leagues but, per ZiPS, capable of producing basically league-average numbers starting right now. Second baseman Dilson Herrera and catcher Kevin Plawecki both feature projections in the vicinity of 2.0 WAR, while other infielders Danny Muno and Wilfredo Tovar — each at 1.0 WAR or better — both profile as able bench pieces. Among pitchers, the triumvirate of Steven Matz (1.8 WAR), Rafael Montero (1.7 WAR) Noah Syndergaard (1.8 WAR) concede — again, per ZiPS — concede very little to the five pitchers expected to occupy spots in the opening-day rotation.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Mets, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
David Wright	R	32	3B	558	67	137	28	3	13	70	11	5
Lucas Duda	L	29	1B	562	75	126	26	1	26	92	3	1
Juan Lagares	R	26	CF	542	58	133	25	5	6	55	13	6
Daniel Murphy	L	30	2B	643	84	172	35	3	10	70	13	4
Wilmer Flores	R	23	SS	570	73	142	27	4	17	80	1	2
Travis d’Arnaud	R	26	C	399	50	93	20	2	14	49	1	0
Kevin Plawecki	R	24	C	437	51	100	20	1	8	44	0	0
Curtis Granderson	L	34	RF	521	71	105	19	3	21	60	9	3
Dilson Herrera	R	21	2B	612	77	137	23	4	16	70	14	6
Ruben Tejada	R	25	SS	507	48	113	21	1	3	39	3	2
Wilfredo Tovar	R	23	SS	436	51	103	12	3	3	36	9	8
Zach Lutz	R	29	3B	381	47	83	15	2	10	42	1	1
Danny Muno	B	26	2B	469	58	92	16	2	8	43	10	6
Matt den Dekker	L	27	CF	519	66	114	24	6	9	52	14	6
Brandon Nimmo	L	22	CF	545	68	110	16	7	8	48	8	5
Cesar Puello	R	24	LF	377	50	82	16	3	8	41	14	3
Kirk Nieuwenhuis	L	27	LF	364	46	73	17	3	11	41	6	3
Michael Cuddyer	R	36	RF	372	42	92	21	2	12	44	6	1
Brian Burgamy	B	34	3B	381	49	76	14	1	13	41	2	2
Matt Reynolds	R	24	SS	459	52	97	14	4	5	38	9	3
Alex Castellanos	R	28	3B	457	59	93	19	5	10	48	10	5
LJ Mazzilli	R	24	2B	493	56	110	19	2	9	50	7	3
Eric Campbell	R	28	1B	416	47	92	19	1	6	39	7	2
Anthony Recker	R	31	C	240	26	45	10	0	8	31	1	2
Darrell Ceciliani	L	25	CF	410	45	90	12	4	5	35	14	5
Johnny Monell	L	29	C	354	38	71	17	1	7	35	3	2
Omar Quintanilla	L	33	SS	320	33	67	12	2	3	29	2	2
Gavin Cecchini	R	21	SS	453	52	95	19	3	7	42	5	4
Jairo Perez	R	27	1B	317	35	75	13	2	8	37	3	3
Taylor Teagarden	R	31	C	176	18	31	4	0	6	20	0	0
Jayce Boyd	R	24	1B	461	55	104	17	2	7	45	1	3
Anthony Seratelli	B	32	2B	395	43	78	10	3	6	33	11	4
John Mayberry Jr.	R	31	1B	333	38	69	17	0	10	40	3	1
Brandon Allen	L	29	1B	408	50	81	15	3	11	45	3	1
Travis Taijeron	R	26	RF	443	52	80	21	2	14	52	1	2
Bobby Abreu	L	41	RF	225	23	46	11	0	3	23	4	1
Cory Vaughn	R	26	RF	451	47	80	14	2	10	40	10	3

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
David Wright	558	9.3%	18.3%	.147	.320	.275	.346	.422	.333
Lucas Duda	562	11.4%	21.2%	.219	.291	.260	.354	.479	.359
Juan Lagares	542	4.8%	21.0%	.106	.328	.264	.305	.370	.295
Daniel Murphy	643	5.3%	12.9%	.118	.315	.286	.323	.404	.320
Wilmer Flores	570	4.4%	14.9%	.162	.286	.266	.300	.428	.314
Travis d’Arnaud	399	7.3%	18.8%	.181	.284	.255	.313	.436	.326
Kevin Plawecki	437	5.7%	14.4%	.116	.278	.251	.307	.367	.299
Curtis Granderson	521	10.7%	25.1%	.193	.274	.231	.319	.424	.329
Dilson Herrera	612	6.0%	24.8%	.141	.303	.244	.295	.385	.301
Ruben Tejada	507	7.7%	15.2%	.071	.293	.249	.317	.320	.280
Wilfredo Tovar	436	5.5%	10.8%	.067	.282	.256	.306	.323	.277
Zach Lutz	381	8.4%	25.7%	.144	.311	.244	.316	.388	.311
Danny Muno	469	10.7%	22.4%	.108	.283	.226	.316	.334	.293
Matt den Dekker	519	6.9%	26.6%	.133	.318	.241	.298	.374	.297
Brandon Nimmo	545	10.3%	28.1%	.112	.317	.228	.313	.340	.294
Cesar Puello	377	5.0%	26.5%	.136	.319	.242	.314	.378	.313
Kirk Nieuwenhuis	364	8.8%	30.8%	.172	.302	.224	.296	.396	.302
Michael Cuddyer	372	7.5%	19.1%	.179	.308	.271	.325	.450	.339
Brian Burgamy	381	8.7%	27.8%	.160	.278	.221	.291	.381	.297
Matt Reynolds	459	6.1%	23.3%	.088	.295	.232	.286	.320	.273
Alex Castellanos	457	6.6%	30.0%	.142	.307	.224	.288	.366	.288
LJ Mazzilli	493	5.1%	21.5%	.109	.290	.240	.283	.349	.281
Eric Campbell	416	9.6%	20.9%	.106	.310	.251	.330	.357	.311
Anthony Recker	240	7.5%	30.8%	.157	.270	.207	.269	.364	.277
Darrell Ceciliani	410	4.9%	26.8%	.092	.317	.237	.282	.329	.274
Johnny Monell	354	7.6%	26.0%	.125	.283	.220	.282	.345	.279
Omar Quintanilla	320	7.5%	18.4%	.086	.279	.232	.293	.318	.266
Gavin Cecchini	453	6.6%	21.4%	.111	.278	.228	.279	.339	.272
Jairo Perez	317	4.4%	17.4%	.140	.286	.255	.300	.395	.303
Taylor Teagarden	176	7.4%	35.8%	.137	.272	.194	.257	.331	.263
Jayce Boyd	461	8.0%	18.2%	.100	.295	.249	.315	.349	.297
Anthony Seratelli	395	9.1%	23.5%	.096	.283	.222	.298	.318	.281
John Mayberry Jr.	333	7.8%	22.8%	.156	.271	.228	.294	.384	.301
Brandon Allen	408	9.1%	24.5%	.148	.271	.221	.294	.369	.295
Travis Taijeron	443	8.1%	38.4%	.168	.307	.202	.280	.370	.290
Bobby Abreu	225	11.6%	19.1%	.101	.281	.234	.320	.335	.296
Cory Vaughn	451	7.8%	32.8%	.119	.282	.198	.276	.317	.271

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
David Wright	558	5.5	117	4	3.8	Gil McDougald
Lucas Duda	562	6.2	134	0	3.1	Adam LaRoche
Juan Lagares	542	4.2	90	14	3.0	Alexis Rios
Daniel Murphy	643	5.0	105	-8	2.2	Todd Walker
Wilmer Flores	570	4.7	104	-7	2.1	Zoilo Versalles
Travis d’Arnaud	399	5.0	110	-7	2.1	Dave Valle
Kevin Plawecki	437	4.1	90	0	2.0	John Jaso
Curtis Granderson	521	4.8	109	0	1.8	Ron Gant
Dilson Herrera	612	4.1	91	-1	1.7	Josh Barfield
Ruben Tejada	507	3.6	82	2	1.4	Liu Rodriguez
Wilfredo Tovar	436	3.4	79	4	1.3	Ismael Gallo
Zach Lutz	381	4.4	99	-4	1.1	Wes Helms
Danny Muno	469	3.6	85	-1	1.1	Joe Lawrence
Matt den Dekker	519	4.0	89	-3	1.1	Corey Patterson
Brandon Nimmo	545	3.7	85	-3	1.0	Herm Winningham
Cesar Puello	377	4.5	95	0	0.9	Ivan Calderon
Kirk Nieuwenhuis	364	4.1	94	4	0.9	Alonzo Powell
Michael Cuddyer	372	5.6	117	-8	0.9	Tom Paciorek
Brian Burgamy	381	3.8	89	-3	0.7	Brandon Inge
Matt Reynolds	459	3.3	72	0	0.7	Edwin Rodriguez
Alex Castellanos	457	3.7	84	-3	0.7	Brandon Powell
LJ Mazzilli	493	3.5	78	-1	0.6	Ruben Santana
Eric Campbell	416	4.3	95	0	0.5	Ed Jurak
Anthony Recker	240	3.2	78	-2	0.5	Steve Yeager
Darrell Ceciliani	410	3.4	73	0	0.3	Herm Winningham
Johnny Monell	354	3.3	77	-7	0.2	Bill Hayes
Omar Quintanilla	320	3.2	74	-2	0.2	Dan Rohn
Gavin Cecchini	453	3.2	74	-4	0.2	Scott Leius
Jairo Perez	317	4.2	95	0	0.1	Brad Correll
Taylor Teagarden	176	2.9	66	-2	0.1	Dave Duncan
Jayce Boyd	461	3.8	88	0	0.0	Chris Pritchett
Anthony Seratelli	395	3.4	75	-6	-0.1	Brian Guinn
John Mayberry Jr.	333	4.0	91	-2	-0.1	Jim Vatcher
Brandon Allen	408	3.8	87	-1	-0.2	Nate Murphy
Travis Taijeron	443	3.4	83	-3	-0.2	Dan Cataline
Bobby Abreu	225	3.9	86	-5	-0.3	Brian Jordan
Cory Vaughn	451	3.0	68	-1	-0.7	Jeremy Dodson

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	K	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Matt Harvey	R	26	25	25	153.0	140	49	10	129	57	53
Jacob deGrom	R	27	29	29	174.3	159	53	12	159	68	64
Zack Wheeler	R	25	31	31	175.7	172	67	15	159	73	68
Noah Syndergaard	R	22	26	26	134.3	142	38	13	122	56	52
Steven Matz	L	24	25	25	141.7	125	44	11	134	60	56
Rafael Montero	R	24	29	28	144.7	139	50	14	131	62	58
Jon Niese	L	28	28	28	171.7	132	46	16	172	77	72
Bartolo Colon	R	42	26	26	167.7	115	27	18	179	80	75
Dillon Gee	R	29	23	23	142.0	107	40	18	142	71	66
Dario Alvarez	L	26	23	9	65.3	67	28	6	59	29	27
Jenrry Mejia	R	25	43	8	78.3	81	30	8	72	34	32
Jeurys Familia	R	25	65	0	65.3	63	28	5	56	25	23
Jack Leathersich	L	24	51	0	60.0	88	37	5	43	22	21
Carlos Torres	R	32	53	9	107.3	95	39	13	101	50	47
Zach Thornton	R	27	49	0	69.0	68	20	6	62	28	26
Dana Eveland	L	31	34	10	85.3	69	30	8	84	41	38
Akeel Morris	R	22	34	0	44.7	59	22	4	34	17	16
Cory Mazzoni	R	25	17	17	94.7	74	28	11	95	48	45
Chasen Bradford	R	25	59	0	76.3	65	13	8	74	32	30
Bobby Parnell	R	30	47	0	44.7	37	13	3	42	18	17
Logan Verrett	R	25	24	24	141.3	104	29	20	149	75	70
Josh Edgin	L	28	68	0	47.0	46	21	4	41	20	19
Vic Black	R	27	57	0	56.3	61	33	5	48	25	23
Darin Gorski	L	27	20	18	100.0	88	36	15	99	54	50
Erik Goeddel	R	26	56	0	75.7	71	32	7	70	35	33
Jose Valverde	R	37	33	0	31.7	28	13	4	30	16	15
Jeremy Hefner	R	29	18	15	79.7	56	24	11	85	45	42
Scott Rice	L	33	49	0	35.3	29	20	3	34	18	17
Daisuke Matsuzaka	R	34	27	17	96.0	80	49	11	92	54	50
Sean Gilmartin	L	25	24	24	125.3	85	44	16	135	71	66
Joel Carreno	R	28	33	7	70.0	61	35	9	69	39	36
Buddy Carlyle	R	37	40	1	55.0	49	18	8	54	29	27
Carlos Alvarado	R	37	19	13	77.0	49	43	8	81	46	43
Hansel Robles	R	24	24	17	96.7	81	45	14	99	57	53
Gabriel Ynoa	R	22	24	24	138.0	86	28	25	159	87	81

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Matt Harvey	153.0	637	22.0%	7.7%	.275	3.12	3.24	88	91
Jacob deGrom	174.3	735	21.6%	7.2%	.291	3.30	3.21	93	90
Zack Wheeler	175.7	753	22.8%	8.9%	.294	3.48	3.59	98	101
Noah Syndergaard	134.3	563	25.2%	6.8%	.300	3.48	3.28	98	92
Steven Matz	141.7	603	20.7%	7.3%	.296	3.56	3.52	100	99
Rafael Montero	144.7	615	22.6%	8.1%	.288	3.61	3.68	101	103
Jon Niese	171.7	733	18.0%	6.3%	.292	3.77	3.72	106	105
Bartolo Colon	167.7	709	16.2%	3.8%	.295	4.03	3.70	113	104
Dillon Gee	142.0	608	17.6%	6.6%	.284	4.18	4.29	117	120
Dario Alvarez	65.3	283	23.7%	9.9%	.298	3.72	3.74	104	105
Jenrry Mejia	78.3	337	24.0%	8.9%	.298	3.68	3.51	103	99
Jeurys Familia	65.3	280	22.5%	10.0%	.280	3.17	3.44	89	97
Jack Leathersich	60.0	260	33.8%	14.2%	.297	3.15	3.28	88	92
Carlos Torres	107.3	462	20.6%	8.4%	.284	3.94	4.16	111	117
Zach Thornton	69.0	289	23.5%	6.9%	.293	3.39	3.34	95	94
Dana Eveland	85.3	370	18.7%	8.1%	.297	4.01	4.01	113	113
Akeel Morris	44.7	190	31.0%	11.6%	.294	3.22	3.38	90	95
Cory Mazzoni	94.7	407	18.2%	6.9%	.291	4.28	4.17	120	117
Chasen Bradford	76.3	316	20.6%	4.1%	.291	3.54	3.47	99	97
Bobby Parnell	44.7	189	19.6%	6.9%	.289	3.43	3.20	96	90
Logan Verrett	141.3	602	17.3%	4.8%	.292	4.46	4.31	125	121
Josh Edgin	47.0	203	22.7%	10.3%	.285	3.64	3.79	102	107
Vic Black	56.3	250	24.4%	13.2%	.291	3.67	4.03	103	113
Darin Gorski	100.0	435	20.2%	8.3%	.289	4.50	4.60	126	129
Erik Goeddel	75.7	329	21.6%	9.7%	.292	3.93	3.85	110	108
Jose Valverde	31.7	138	20.3%	9.4%	.285	4.26	4.28	120	120
Jeremy Hefner	79.7	348	16.1%	6.9%	.291	4.74	4.51	133	127
Scott Rice	35.3	160	18.1%	12.5%	.293	4.33	4.34	122	122
Daisuke Matsuzaka	96.0	429	18.6%	11.4%	.287	4.69	4.69	132	132
Sean Gilmartin	125.3	555	15.3%	7.9%	.295	4.74	4.68	133	131
Joel Carreno	70.0	314	19.4%	11.1%	.293	4.63	4.73	130	133
Buddy Carlyle	55.0	237	20.7%	7.6%	.289	4.42	4.38	124	123
Carlos Alvarado	77.0	355	13.8%	12.1%	.292	5.03	5.13	141	144
Hansel Robles	96.7	434	18.7%	10.4%	.295	4.93	4.97	138	139
Gabriel Ynoa	138.0	601	14.3%	4.7%	.295	5.28	5.05	148	142

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Matt Harvey	153.0	8.24	2.88	0.59	114	2.8	Brian Holman
Jacob deGrom	174.3	8.21	2.74	0.62	107	2.8	Jason Schmidt
Zack Wheeler	175.7	8.81	3.43	0.77	102	2.4	Bob Walk
Noah Syndergaard	134.3	9.52	2.55	0.87	102	1.8	Kevin Millwood
Steven Matz	141.7	7.94	2.79	0.70	100	1.8	Danny Jackson
Rafael Montero	144.7	8.65	3.11	0.87	98	1.7	Kurt Ainsworth
Jon Niese	171.7	6.92	2.41	0.84	94	1.7	Scott Karl
Bartolo Colon	167.7	6.17	1.45	0.97	88	1.1	Jim Bunning
Dillon Gee	142.0	6.78	2.54	1.14	85	0.6	Chris Codiroli
Dario Alvarez	65.3	9.23	3.86	0.83	95	0.6	Rod Scurry
Jenrry Mejia	78.3	9.31	3.45	0.92	96	0.5	Tim Scott
Jeurys Familia	65.3	8.68	3.86	0.69	112	0.5	Lee Smith
Jack Leathersich	60.0	13.20	5.55	0.75	113	0.5	Randy Myers
Carlos Torres	107.3	7.97	3.27	1.09	90	0.3	Pat Mahomes
Zach Thornton	69.0	8.87	2.61	0.78	105	0.3	Jim Mecir
Dana Eveland	85.3	7.28	3.17	0.84	88	0.3	Terry Burrows
Akeel Morris	44.7	11.88	4.43	0.81	110	0.3	Armando Benitez
Cory Mazzoni	94.7	7.03	2.66	1.05	83	0.3	Joe Bitker
Chasen Bradford	76.3	7.67	1.53	0.94	100	0.2	Randy Graham
Bobby Parnell	44.7	7.45	2.62	0.60	103	0.2	Todd Williams
Logan Verrett	141.3	6.62	1.85	1.27	80	0.1	Josh Towers
Josh Edgin	47.0	8.81	4.02	0.77	97	0.1	Matt Whisenant
Vic Black	56.3	9.75	5.28	0.80	96	0.1	Calvin Jones
Darin Gorski	100.0	7.92	3.24	1.35	79	0.0	Dan Meyer
Erik Goeddel	75.7	8.44	3.80	0.83	90	-0.2	Brian Bowles
Jose Valverde	31.7	7.95	3.69	1.14	83	-0.2	Mike Fetters
Jeremy Hefner	79.7	6.32	2.71	1.24	75	-0.3	Clint Weibl
Scott Rice	35.3	7.39	5.10	0.76	82	-0.3	Marshall Bridges
Daisuke Matsuzaka	96.0	7.50	4.59	1.03	76	-0.3	Russ Ortiz
Sean Gilmartin	125.3	6.11	3.16	1.15	75	-0.3	Chris Cumberland
Joel Carreno	70.0	7.84	4.50	1.16	77	-0.4	James Warden
Buddy Carlyle	55.0	8.02	2.95	1.31	80	-0.4	Matt Whiteside
Carlos Alvarado	77.0	5.73	5.03	0.94	71	-0.6	Vern Kennedy
Hansel Robles	96.7	7.54	4.19	1.30	72	-0.6	Ron Chiavacci
Gabriel Ynoa	138.0	5.61	1.83	1.63	67	-1.4	John Gardner

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.