A’s Complete Roster Overhaul, Add Ben Zobrist
The White Sox have had an incredibly busy offseason, but the goal’s always been clear. The Padres, too, have had a busy offseason, striving for an obvious purpose. Right before the Padres took the industry by storm, it was the Dodgers who were making moves every half hour, toward, again, a clear goal of contention. The A’s have had their own busy offseason, but theirs had been more confusing. Giving three guaranteed years to Billy Butler seemed like a move for a team trying to win. Dealing away a long-term asset like Josh Donaldson seemed like the opposite. To Oakland’s credit, though, they stuck to their own message — they weren’t trying to rebuild. They don’t believe in rebuilds. And now we can see how things all come together.
When the Rays signed Asdrubal Cabrera, after having acquired Nick Franklin last summer, they were provided the flexibility to move Ben Zobrist in advance of his contract year. Zobrist, of course, appealed to just about every team in baseball, on account of his talent and flexibility. Now Zobrist has been moved, and he’s been moved to the A’s, along with Yunel Escobar, in exchange for John Jaso, Daniel Robertson, and Boog Powell. The trade’s interesting from the Tampa Bay side, just because it involves moving one of the best players on the team. And the trade’s interesting from the Oakland side, because it adds a great player at little short-term cost. Score yet another point for those who issue reminders that you shouldn’t judge offseasons until they’re complete.
Not that Billy Beane is necessarily finished. It’s still not even the middle of January, and he would appear to have a few remaining millions of dollars to spend, if he liked. But the roster looks complete, in terms of meaningful players. It doesn’t seem like there are any remaining dominoes. The big difference between yesterday’s A’s and today’s A’s: today’s A’s feature a new All-Star-caliber player, and all that’s been subtracted from the big-league squad is a DH who was all but out of a job.
This was the kind of move the A’s have long been trying to make. When the A’s dealt Donaldson, they wanted to bring in a different quality player. They tried hard for Chase Headley right away, but Headley ultimately opted not to go to Oakland, so the A’s were left searching elsewhere. Given Beane’s creativity, they’ve drawn some links to Colorado and Troy Tulowitzki. But Zobrist will do, and since Zobrist was traded, he had no say in his destination. He couldn’t turn the A’s down, like Headley. So the A’s are happy to have him, and for anyone who isn’t already familiar with Zobrist’s ability, here’s a brief summary:
- 2011: 11th in baseball in position-player WAR
- 2012: 13th
- 2013: 18th
- 2014: 12th
The downsides are these: Zobrist is 33 years old. He hasn’t hit for power since 2012. This is his final year of team control. But as far as that last point is concerned, Zobrist is likely to be good enough to justify a qualifying offer after the year, and anyhow, the A’s are most focused for the moment on 2015. Zobrist’s lowest WAR since 2009 is 3.7. He plays a lot, he switch-hits, he gets on base, and — importantly — he plays all over the field. Zobrist isn’t just a plug for the A’s hole at second base. What the A’s have now is depth at almost every position.
However you feel about Josh Phegley, he has been able to hit at Triple-A, so he’s a decent backup for Stephen Vogt. Vogt has demonstrated an ability to play first base and the corner outfield. Zobrist can play just about everywhere. Brett Lawrie can handle second and third. Marcus Semien can handle most of the infield. Yunel Escobar is a capable defensive shortstop. Sam Fuld, Craig Gentry, and Coco Crisp can all handle center. Billy Butler is depth at first base if Mark Canha isn’t. And the rotation has depth even before you factor in the attempted comebacks of Jarrod Parker and A.J. Griffin. Zobrist adds to the top of the A’s roster, but they’ve also positioned themselves now to avoid any catastrophes at the bottom. More than anything else, depth is Oakland’s current greatest strength.
Steamer’s just Steamer, but if you choose to believe in Steamer for a second, then based on the depth charts, Oakland projects to be at least league-average just about everywhere. The biggest issue is left field, where the A’s are projected for 1.9 WAR against an average of 2.2. Not only is that close enough to not mean anything — we don’t know how the playing time is going to work out. And Sam Fuld was a three-win player just last year. Put everything together and the A’s project for a .520 winning percentage. That’s fifth-highest in the American League, right by the Indians. It actually slots the A’s just ahead of the Angels. Projections come with big error bars, but it’s obvious now the A’s have constructed a team they think can make the playoffs.
Even though Escobar isn’t the point, here, he’s not nothing — a couple years ago, he was a well-above-average player, and the issue last year was a mysterious defensive drop-off of massive proportion. His DRS dropped by an inconceivable 28 runs. His UZR also dropped by an inconceivable 28 runs. When asked in the middle of the season, Joe Maddon didn’t have a great explanation, and for Escobar’s career, he’s mostly been an above-average defensive shortstop. If that comes back, Escobar can be an asset, for $5 million this year and $7 million the next. There’s also a $7 million 2017 club option, so Escobar might be able to hold the fort until Franklin Barreto is ready. He’s at least an alternative to Semien, if it turns out Semien isn’t a great fit at shortstop.
What the A’s are losing isn’t insignificant. You couldn’t swing this kind of trade for an insignificant return. John Jaso has posted a 121 wRC+ two years in a row, following a 143. Daniel Robertson ranked as Oakland’s No. 1 prospect. Boog Powell just finished a year in the minors with an OBP of about .450 as a center fielder. Because Zobrist appealed to just about everybody, the A’s had to compete with just about everybody, and this deal saw them borrow from the future for the sake of the present.
But this isn’t the Addison Russell deal, or anything close. Russell, now and at the time of the trade, was considered an elite-level prospect. Robertson was Oakland’s No. 1, but only because Oakland doesn’t have a particularly deep or impressive system. He’s a shortstop, and he might remain a shortstop, but he might have to move to second or third. He has yet to play above High-A, and he has more of a line-drive bat than a power bat. On a given top-100 list, Robertson would likely rank somewhere in the middle. As for Powell, the discipline is impressive, as last year he walked more than he struck out, but he also has just three homers to his name, with a .067 ISO. He’s a center fielder, but not a spectacular one, so he profiles more as a reserve. The discipline could erode as he climbs higher and gets challenged more often. Powell’s useful, with a low ceiling.
It’s a trade Oakland could afford. They’re in position to win. Having Barreto and Semien made it less important to protect Robertson. Jaso can hit, but he’s had concussion issues, and he was almost out of a job. Now the A’s are good enough to contend with the Mariners and the Angels, and making the moves they’ve made in this order helps to generate enthusiasm for the season ahead, where a few weeks ago fan morale was lower. Not that that’s the important thing, but now the idea’s clearer. Beane never stopped wanting to win. He just believes more in this roster than in the roster he had in October.
On the Tampa Bay side, there’s real loss, here, which is obvious. In a way it’s interesting — both Tampa Bay and Oakland want to win, they both want to balance the short-term and the long-term, and they’re both lower-payroll ballclubs. Today they made opposite trades. But the Rays protected themselves against the Zobrist loss by signing Cabrera, and by acquiring Franklin, and given that this was almost inevitable, it will help the Rays to add Jaso to the roster immediately. Robertson becomes one of their better prospects, and even if he can’t handle shortstop in the long run, his bat should allow him to play in the majors at a less-demanding position. Robertson isn’t an upside-get, but he’s a safety-get, and that’s something the Rays value.
It stood to reason that Zobrist would bring back something approximating the Jason Heyward package, or the Justin Upton package. Jaso is the help in the short-term. Robertson is the potential help in the long-term. Powell is an additional wild card, and for whatever it’s worth, the Rays were also given $1.5 million. The Rays are still more of a good team than a bad team — this is a loss, but not a dramatic one — and this is simply what was out there for them. The Rays could still win in 2015. They’ll be in a tougher division than Oakland, though, from the looks of things, so now the Rays have helped themselves more down the road, when Zobrist would’ve been gone anyway. A move like this is never easy to swallow, but, Rays fans are used to it.
You never want to trade a Ben Zobrist, but the Rays knew they were going to, and they found appropriate value. As for the A’s, they’re enthusiastic about receiving a Ben Zobrist, and now a completely different Oakland team will look to have a very similar kind of Oakland regular season. Maybe not down to the last detail. But as confusing as Oakland’s winter has been, it all makes more sense now on the other side.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
“As for Powell, the discipline is impressive, as last year he struck out more than he walked, but he also has just three homers to his name, with a .067 ISO. He’s a center fielder, …”
if that is plate discipline, striking out more than walking, that sucks. Shouldn’t it be walking more than striking out?
He has walked more than he’s struck out, so it was a minor error in wording, not analysis.
Had them right in my head, got it backwards when I wrote. Fixed now, thank you.
I wish my old midterms and finals had an edit button.
Im sure the Rays could’ve gotten more for a player like Zobrist
Andy was the only one who ever card, to be honest. I’m just punching the clock here; told anyone interested to give me a list of names and I’d draw straws.
Yeah but he’s got one year left.
heyward and upton had 1 yr left. do you see their value high than zobrist, does age difference matter?
would you rather have shelby miller and walden vs robertson, powell, jaso?
I think it’s partly age and partly due to how the market, or at least some teams, value bat over versatility and defense.
I think the Cardinals will try very hard to extend Heyward. Heyward over the next 5-7 years is better than Zobrist. Same with Upton an Upton is known as a bat first guy.
Don’t get me wrong, I’d rather have Zobrist than Upton.
Doesn’t the fact that this is the package they accepted indicate that they, in fact, could not have?
They’ve had all winter to gauge interest and receive offers in him and this is the one they deemed the best.
I agree. This feels like a light return. I have to figure that the Rays saw a lot of utility in being able to dump Escobar. They must have decided that his defense had become unplayable and wasn’t likely to return to his career norms and this was the best way to remove his contract from their books. A B+ and a C+ prospect isn’t enough to bridge the gap between Zobrist and Jaso unless you figure Escobar as a negative.
Not to mention the QO pick the A’s likely receive or the players they can get at the deadline if things fall apart.
Josh Donaldson is a great player. But Nick Punto, Alberto Callaspo, and Eric Sogard were not.
Losing Donaldson matters, but here is what the 2014 A’s 3B/SS/2B hit: .244/.318/.365, with 39 home runs.
They aren’t replacing Donaldson, necessarily. They are replacing their whole infield. Will Brett Lawrie, Yunel Escobar, Ben Zobrist, and Marcus Semien combine for a .244/.318/.365 line? I would say yes, and possibly more.
Shouldn’t you be including first base in this analysis?
First base is basically a pool with DH and corner OF, or in the A’s case backup catcher (Vogt).
No, 1B is Ike Davis and Mark Canha first and foremost, with Butler & Vogt and whoever else as the backup plans.
The original point still stands though: Lowrie, Callaspo & Sogard were terrible at the plate last year and Lowrie & Callaspo stunk on defense too. Lawrie, Escobar, Zobrist & Semien should fairly easily do a lot better at the plate and all are excellent glovemen too. 2015 INF >>>>> 2014 INF.
Also, it cannot be understated that Sogard still has an option left if case tragedy strikes. That is huge, as he is not a terrible player at all and could probably be an everyday 2B on a worse team than Oakland.
Could you not have kept Donaldson and upgraded at other positions as well?
Im guessing the A’s view Lawrie as a pretty good approximation of Donaldson. And they got Barreto out of it as well
I am pretty sure that even the A’s know Lawrie is not Donaldson or even close. I think they actually expect Donaldson to regress quite a bit; I bet they are wrong there.
Lawrie is a fantastic defensive player but I expect he will continue getting injured all the time.
Surprising that a bona Fidel superstar can be traded away so cheaply. Trust me, it wouldn’t take.Donaldson to get Lawrie, and the extra bits don’t make up the difference.
Lawrie had 12 HR in 70 games last year, thats 27 in 162 aka what you expect from Donaldson. Defensively they would probably be viewed as equals if Lawrie wasn’t getting hurt all the time.
Seeing as literally every Toronto player magically turns “injury-prone” and then suddenly isn’t once they leave, makes me have optimism for Lawrie’s future. They really do need to get rid of turf in MLB.
“Seeing as literally every Toronto player magically turns “injury-prone” and then suddenly isn’t once they leave”
I’ve never heard that before.
The only bona Fidel superstar they had was Cespedes.
This trade was a massive steal for Oakland. If only they hadn’t sold early and low on Samardzija, they would be a really interesting contender.
I don’t think their ability contend hinges on the Samardzija trade at all.
Take another look at their current rotation.
Gray/Kazmir/Hahn/Pomeranz/(insert Graveman/Chavez/Nolin/whoever here)?
Gray-Kazmir-Pomeranz-Hahn-Graveman/Nolin/Chavez/Bassitt/Griffin/Parker
Name a team with that level of rotation depth.
Forrest Gumption, you must be an Oakland homer. You just posted two legitimate starting pitchers and a bunch of question marks, then pretended that was the deepest rotation in the league. You’re being silly.
The Mets. So long as we are using AAA guys as the back end:
Harvey
Degrom
Wheeler
Niese
Colon
Gee
Syndergaard
Matz
Montero
Fulmer
Mazzoni
Bowman
Peavey
Pill
Verrett
Also, I’d rather have the Indians, at least 1-8, all guys who had a sub-4.00 siera last year:
Kluber
Carrasco
Salazar
Floyd
Bauer
House
Tomlin
Mcallister
I agree the Mets are deep but you posted too many guys who aren’t even close to being ready in 2015. But they do have depth too…lets hope they don’t get silly and trade it.
And “a bunch of question marks”? Aren’t like 90% of SPs in baseball called that? If you don’t believe in Pomeranz and Hahn you aren’t paying attention. Pomeranz was playing up to his #5 draft pick ceiling before he got hurt punching a chair. Hahn was born to pitch in Oakland. Add to that the best defensive team in baseball (no argument) and I doubt any of these guys will have ERA’s under 4 – FIP won’t matter because Oakland pitchers always get park help.
I know some of the Mets I named aren’t quite depth right now or necessarily all that good. But of the 15 I named, 13 pitched at least some at AAA or above last year. The other 2, Matz and Fulmer, made it to AA last year. It wouldn’t be surprising for Matz to even start the year at AAA but for the fact the Mets have so many starters (at least unless they can deal some) he probably gets pushed back to AA. Fulmer obviously needs more time but a good half season in AA pushes him to Vegas, at which point many young pitchers with a good arm are just a few injuries and a phone call away. After a rough early April last year coming back from an injury plagued year he was quite good in high A and people forget he’s already made a top 100 list earlier in his career.
Verrett, Pill, Mazzoni, Bowman are more likely relievers, long men, quadruple A etc, but hey, that’s depth for you, guys with some pitchability and command. Kinda like DeGrom coming into last year, although you don’t expect more lightning in a bottle and none have his pure arm.
Frankly, I didn’t know much about Graveman and Bassit etc from your list. They look like possibilities and a bit better i suppose than 11-15 on my Met list, although Graveman’s numbers don’t seem all that much better than, say, Bowman’s.
they like semien, phegley probably allowed them to trade norris, position is uncertain, but ravelo looks like a solid hitter, bassitt i see as a back rotation or power reliever. Most teams including the A’s dont base their evaluation on baseballamerica top 100 lists
I love landing Zobrist, but as an A’s fan I honestly think the Samardzija trade was Beane’s best of the offseason (so far).
For a half year of Samardzija you went from one of the best prospects in the minor leagues to Semien, a backup catcher, and some organizational depth.
first half of that trade definitely sucked, because it didn’t work… but then getting semien and phegley, who are super cheap, and avoiding samardzia’s ~$10m arb payment is likely part of why they can afford zobrist…and that part looks like a pretty good trade…
the a’s always pitch better than people expect… they look like the best team in the west, to me…
I don’t think that’s entirely fair. You’re conflating the original trade to acquire Samardzija with the winter trade.
I hated the trade to acquire him, but that should be properly viewed as a sunk cost by the winter. I don’t like turning Russell & co. into Phegley, Semien, & co., but I do like exchanging one season of Samardzija for several useful assets. It’s possible to like the second trade without liking the first. I like Semien a lot, and Phegley may be more useful than you’re implying.
All of this, however, would make much more sense if not for them dealing Donaldson.
Semien has had a very high popup rate throughout his minor league career which carried over to his 326 major league plate appearances. Most people tend to get excited about his walk rate, but that is a function of passivity rather than discernment, as he had one of the lowest rates in the majors of swinging at pitches inside the strike zone. That explains why he had such a poor strike out rate despite decent contact skills. Throw in the lack of defensive excellence and Marcus profiles as a long-term utility infielder with some pop, which is a useful piece, but hardly enough to be the main return for a frontline starter.
I think the issue is that you’re treating Shark like a frontline starter, when the only team that ever considered him such is the A’s.
The outlier that makes no sense isn’t that the A’s got Semien for him, it’s that the Cubs got Russell for him.
jd, you have to be the biggest negative-Nancy on this board. Semien is a a middle infielder, he doesn’t need to have an amazing bat or a flawless bat. He isn’t just a wait to walk guy, taking advantage of inconsistent minor league pitchers, either. He’s posted ~.200+ ISOs in AA/AAA two years running. Sure he does a couple things you’d rather him not to, but just cherry-picking a couple flaws without looking at the whole picture, doesn’t make him doomed to a super utility roll. His defense may not play at SS full time, but he’ll pass there in a pinch and most would rate him to be at least average at 2B or 3B. Plus Semien adds value on the basepaths.
Put it all together and you have a very nice player. Steamer has him at 2 WAR in 504 PAs. Average hitting, average fielding at 2B/3B, positive baserunning. Is there any reason to think Steamer isn’t taking into account the pop-ups or the passivity.?…didn’t think so.
jdbolick- you are projecting Semien’s entire career based on his first 250 PA’s? Do you do the same for all prospects? Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley Jr., R. Odor all seem to stink.
choppak77, I’ve been evaluating prospects for over a decade. When possible I see them in person (I have seen Semien several times), otherwise I watch videos. Fortunately we’re also getting much more access to compelling minor league data such as Semien’s IFFB rate and his Z-Swing% scores. Fans of particular teams or guys who have prospects in their dynasty leagues always want to believe the best, but my history at this stuff is pretty good.
Walter, I call them like I see them and I’m usually proven correct. Steamer is anticipating a huge improvement in Semien’s strikeout rate along with a modest improvement in ISO, so it’s presumably putting more weight on his minor league numbers and less weight on his major league ones.
JD, I’m sure you’re proven right a lot, after you ignore all the times you were wrong of course.
Maybe steamer is projecting a drop in K% because 27% is pretty absurd based on his minor league numbers (which doesnt have the crazy SSS issue)? And the power increase seem pretty conservative to me.
But yeah, call them how ever you want for whatever silly reasons, just don’t expect us to give a rip…
You seem to just have a bizarre fixation on infield flyball rate, which can vary quite a bit from year to year. And is 9.7% rate in 2014 looks to be pretty firmly league average, not high. And I don’t think I would take seriously anyone’s claim that a 13% career walk rate in the minors just doesn’t count by presuming to know it was completely due to “passivity.” MLB second basemen suck at hitting. Semien, clearly not yet at his peak, nonetheless put up an 88 wRC+. That’s better than 17 teams’ 2B totals. Any sane person would assume he’s going to improve on that.
*sigh*
Walter:
As I already pointed out, the dramatic change in K-rate at the major league level is a function of major league pitchers throwing a higher percentage of strikes. Semien’s contact rate in the majors was very similar to his rates in the minors. Semien’s Z-Swing% in the majors was very similar to his rates in the minors. The difference is that while being passive in the minor leagues got him ahead in the count, being passive in the major leagues put him behind in the count. This has now been explained to you multiple times and you have thus far produced no rebuttal. Sticking your fingers in your ears and shouting “Nuh uh!” really achieves nothing.
choppak77:
IFFB is actually pretty stable from year to year, and Semien’s 10.6% rate is worse than average. As I noted, he consisted posted high IFFB rates throughout the minor leagues. I get that you’re upset that I’m posting facts that challenge something you want to believe, but the numbers are what they are.
JD, the rebuttal is simple, its SSS and I trust Steamer and ZiPS a heck of lot more than you. They both projected ~20% K rate, give or take a percent. Both ZiPS and Steamer project him to be worth about 2 WAR despite that K rate.
Your hunch that this one thing, which Steamer and ZiPS already take into account, will cripple his career holds no water. Not with anyone other than yourself, anyway. Sigh if you like, but won’t change a thing…
Just FYI, a ~10.5% IFFB rate is about the same as another good player mentioned a lot on this page, Ben Zorbist. Again ~10.5% IFFB is something Semein can carry and still be a good player.
Walter, you’re embarrassing yourself. Posting Semien’s actual performance at the major league level is not a hunch, and I’ve explained multiple times why his major league numbers differ so much from his minor league ones. You keep repeating the Steamer projection over and over again like a parrot, as if blanket projection systems would be more accurate than individual evaluation or overrule actual major league performance. This isn’t about “trust,” it’s about using your brain and its reasoning ability. I’ve given plausible explanations for my position and you have yet to provide any legitimate rebuttal. Clearly this is just a matter of you wanting to believe something else, even if you have no actual reason to do so.
Zobrist has superior contact skills and power to Semien.
JD, yes projection systems are better than individuals with hunches. That’s why people make and continue to use projection systems. There are places where the projection systems can fail, you can point out those kinds of things (like not knowing about injuries), but the projection systems know how to weigh things like minor league numbers combined with small samples of MLB numbers. You don’t.
You keep bringing up numbers that Steamer/ZiPS take into account when making their projections, but somehow you think you know better. Well, prove it. Don’t just keep pointing to a past SSS in MLB. Show me the proof that Steamer/ZiPS fails to accurately project players with this type of history and this particular problem. Short of that, all you have is a subjective opinion, one I put exactly zero weight in no matter how many cute ad hominems you can come up with. I’ll take an empirically derived model, refined and tested rigorously, over a subjective opinion 99% of the time. That 1% is when someone can point to data the model is explicitly designed not to capture.
In summary, you have 2 routes you can go if want to support this argument that Semien isn’t what Steamer/ZiPS projects. 1) Bring up empirical data they don’t use that is suggestive of underperformance relative to Steamer/ZiPS projections in general. 2) Show me some sort of meta data on Semien that these projection systems don’t try to encapsulate. Like an unknown (to the projections) injury, drug problems, arrests, I don’t know. Until then, I consider this discussion over.
Quick note: Zorbist does not have better power than Semien. Go look at their ISOs both projected and their MLB numbers. Zorbist does strike out less and walk more though, no doubt. Semein’s got 20+ HR upside. Zorbist was that, but those day’s are likely over.
JD, Zobrist was awful over his first 300+ plate appearances in the majors, when he was 25. Semien just finished his age 23 season. And Zobrist’s IFFB rate was worse at that age. Yes, he made better contact, but he showed no power at all. Tiny sample but his wRC+ was 44 and -4 his first 2 years. Semien was at 88 last year.
These are all small samples for young players but I think it is crazy to suggest a young player can’t adjust. Pitchers in the majors throw more strikes, eh? Well, Semien could adjust and not be as passive. Do you not account for the possibility Semien might improve after adjusting to major league ball? Despite your appeal to your own authority, and I know you know a lot and i’m sure you have insight into Semien that I don’t have, I think you are over-emphasizing it. My bet is that Semien will improve. I suspect he’ll do better than that steamer projection as well, if not this year then down the line. But no one really projected Zobrist to be as good as he became either.
They didn’t sell low on Samardzija. The market for an elite SP this off season wasn’t a seller’s market. You have 3 good-great SP (Lester, Scherzer, Shields) available in free agency and apparently David Price available in a trade. So you’re going to get less of an offer.
You’re ignoring that they didn’t have to sell him at all, but your bigger problem is that while asserting that “they didn’t sell low,” you then argued that they did in fact sell low because the market suppressed his value.
“Zobrist is likely to be good enough to justify a qualifying offer after the year”
I dunno, should a guy turns 35 in May 2016 and whose value is dependent on his defensive ability at multiple positions expect a three(+)-year deal? Is he confident enough that such a market exists to turn down a 1/~$16M deal?
He’ll get multiple years assuming he performs in 2015.
Someone will find him valuable enough to offer 3/50, even after factoring in the loss of a pick due to an Oakland QO.
I think even Oakland may offer him a 3/50 deal. Because why wouldn’t they?
Nelson Cruz, who is 10 months older than Zobrist, a comparable hitter (using wRC+) and a worse fielder and base runner, just got 4 years and $58M. If Zobrist stays healthy and performs as can be reasonably expected, there should be plenty of offers that will be far better than $16M / 1.
But Dingers tho
they dig scars too dude
They sure do, bro. They sure do.
He would have to absolutely crater this year to not have a market for more than 1/16.
It would probably even have to be worse than just poor production. He’d probably have to have some sort of injury thats put some risk of recovery in 2016.
Butler got 3/$30 and has never been at Zobrist’s level, and that’s after a terrible season from Butler. Barring injury, Zobrist’s floor is way higher than Butler did this year, so even accounting for age, Zobrist will do way better than 1/$16 next year.
A fantastic trade for the A’s but I think it only helps them to avoid what otherwise would have been an atrocious offseason. There were alternative actions they could have taken.
If Moss had earned 8 million in arbitration and Donaldson had earned 15 million then you were looking at 23 million (or in other words a little over a quarter of last years payroll). With Lowrie (5 million), Gregerson (5 million), Johnson (10 million) et al coming off of the books they were saving at least 20 million. Butler and Davis and Lawrie cost about 10 million this year combined. If you go with Donaldson and Moss instead you have 7 million to spend on a SS and two relievers. Zobrist will be 7.5 million minus the cost of Jaso (2.3 million), and relievers are cheaply found.
You still trade Samardzija, Norris, and Jaso and bring in hahn, semien, phegley, zobrist, and escobar. Samardjiza was not on last year’s payroll so don’t consider his cost. Norris costs as much as Semien. After Zobrist and then the reduction of Jaso, and considering the 7 million you had left over above, you have about 1.8 million to spend on Escobar, Hahn, and Phegley which isn’t enough and you go over by about 4.2 million.
Your rotation is Gray, Kazmir, Hahn, Pomeranz, Griffin, Chavez, Parker, same as it is now, and the excess of those you could move to the bullpen to assist Doolittle, Abad, and a resuscitated Ryan Cook. That’s essentially the same rotation and bullpen minus gravemen and nolin.
You have Vogt and Phegley, Moss and Vogt, Zobrist, Escobar, Donaldson, Semien, Gentry, Crisp, Reddick, and Fuld. You’re over 4.2 million but that is all. You don’t have Barreto, Gravemen, and Nolin but you have Powell and Robertson. You take a slight payroll increase and take a small hit to your minor league depth (but you retain the ability to trade Donaldson and Moss). You avoid the injury risk inherent with Lawrie. You can even trade Crisp and open up 11 million without killing your OF because Gentry, and Fuld, and Reddick can all play CF and so can Billy Burns and Moss can be an OF and so can Vogt and then you can sign Butler or Davis or an OF with the money you save.
Of course, maybe you can’t trade Crisp (which is kind of hard to believe) and you don’t know that Zobrist will become available. So what? That doesn’t excuse the Donaldson deal. It was atrocious.
But Billy Beane, this trade for Zobrist was a keeper.
Of course Robertson and Powell wouldn’t still be in the A’s system. That was a mistake.
But I also failed to consider the other prospects that came from the Norris and Samardzija trades and the 10.5 million coming off the books for Cespedes (or did the Sox take on his contract? Sox got creamed in that case). I also didn’t mention Callaspo’s 5 million coming off the books.
Of course, I also assumed the A’s could sustain the same payroll they did last season. That doesn’t seem completely unreasonable but maybe it isn’t the case.
But whatever millions of holes you can poke in what I said, it seems pretty convincing to me that the A’s could have kept Donaldson and patched together a similar rotation, bullpen, and infield (1B, 2B, SS, C). Maybe you do trade Moss and save 8 million and bring in Wendle and then sign Davis. Maybe you move someone like Crisp who is due 11 million this season. That would be an attractive price for someone like the Braves or Orioles or Mets who need an OF.
i dont think they trade robertson if they didnt have barretto, of course barretto is 18 and years away so who knows. are graveman, nolin necessary depth pieces if they had hahn, bassitt?. the moss deal seems to be the lightest return of all, depending on his health
You also forgot all the other arbitration raises other players are getting. I don’t know why people here don’t take the A’s FO at their word when they make public statements. The A’s had to cut payroll going in to the offseason.
They also were looking at a very negative 2-3 year outlook. Maybe trading Shark alone would have done enough to not NEED to make other trades from a payroll limit sense, but the A’s still had gaping holes at SS, 2B, one of CF or RF, and at least 1 rotation spot. An injured Moss and concussion issues Jaso makes 1B/DH somewhat questionable, as well. The Shark trade covered one of the SS/2B holes, but also weakened the rotation. With that money Butler/Davis could be had and 1B/DH gets shored up. And without trading Donaldson, I don’t think there is money for Escobar and Zorbist to fill out the remaining 2B/SS hole, and the RF/CF hole. Plus, you now have 2 holes in the rotation.
Look at the rotation you have above here without the Donaldson trade: Gray, Kazmir, Hahn, Pomeranz, Griffin, Chavez, Parker:
1) Gray is a solid #1. No quibbles here.
2) Kazmir had a significant drop off in the 2nd half (3.32 FIP 1st half, 4.03 FIP 2nd). Combine that with his reliability concerns and he feels risky.
3) Hahn is a great talent, but he has 73.1 MLB innings, and 115.2 split between AA and MLB last year, which is the most he has in any professional season. Steamer projects him to jump up to 144 IP. That sounds reasonable, but it also means you’re without your #3 stater for about 10 starts or so.
4) Pomeranz is also a decent talent, but he’s never gone over 100 IP in an MLB season. And hasn’t substantially cracked 100 IP, across all levels, in a year since 2012.
5) Last year, at the first sign of faltering, Chavez was bumped from the rotation. His second half FIP and work load suggest the team knew he wasn’t going to hold up over a whole season and pulled the pug before it got really ugly.
6) Parker (recovering from TJS) is almost certainly not going to be available for starting any time in 2015. He might be able to join the bullpen.
7) Griffin (also receiving from TJS) might be able to join the rotation mid season. Maybe he can be expected to cover 1/3 of season, like 10-15 starts?
So the #1 is about as sure of thing as there gets, but any pitcher should probably be expected to miss a handful of starts. #2 has some reliability concerns but not so bad, maybe he misses 5+ starts. #3 probably shouldn’t be expected to do more than 2/3 of a season (miss about 10-15 starts). #4 and #5 shouldn’t be expected to do more than 1/2 a season (so a missing 35+ starts between them). And you have NO reliable depth! None. Two pitchers coming off TJS that won’t be available for at least 1/2 the season one of which has basically no expectation to be able to start in 2015…..that isn’t depth. With the absence of Shark, Graveman and Nolin were absolutely necessary, or at least something like them was. Under any reasonable expectation the A’s probably have at least 45 starts to cover. But its not too hard to see it go from 45 to 60+. Graveman and Nolin are here for that and can probably cover them at ~1WAR level. That’s a lot better than hoping Mills can maybe hit 0 WAR and probably still needing to pick someone else up off the scrap heap.
Heck, as an A’s fan, I’d still like to see Beane us his remaining funds (about $5M apparently) to add another rotation piece.
Whoops, I notice know I meant a CF/LF whole, not CF/RF. Obviously Reddick covers RF just fine.
As a fellow A’s fan, I agree, I’d love to see them sign Chris Young to fill out the rotation and trade Fuld or Gentry and sign a guy to play LF who isn’t all glove/no power.
However, it has been proven over and over (most recently by Tommy Milone) that pitching for the A’s pretty much automatically means a career-best ERA that will be under 4.00. SP depth/health is more important than talent due to park factor. I’m worried about the OF of Fuld/Gentry/Crisp/Reddick – Fuld is just not that good and the other 3 have injury concerns.
Crisp would be an attractive trade chip but teams know he can’t stay on the field. That being said i think this is the year Brett Lawrie logs over 500 pa.
rosenthal says headley turned down 4 yr/60 mill from oakland, no clue if that was offered before or after donaldson trade. i guess they wouldve shifted lawrie to 2b and this zobrist trade probably doesnt happen
I think people are overestimating what one year of ben zobrist is worth. Let’s not get carried away. This guy has been called underrated for so long that now it’s switched around to him being almost overrated
Did you miss this part?
2011: 11th in baseball in position-player WAR
2012: 13th
2013: 18th
2014: 12th
Or 5th over 2011-2014 combined.
Or, if you want to use 2009-2014, there’s this Cabrera guy ahead of Zobrist, and …… nobody else:
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2009&ind=0&team=&rost=&age=&filter=&players=
I made the top ten!! And I was still in high school at the beginning of the 2009 season.
And that is the reason I am becoming more and more skeptical of the WAR stat. Can you honestly say with a straight face that Ben Zobrist was the second best position player in MLB from 2009-2014?
It is very difficult to see defense, but Zobrist compiled around 2.5 WAR last year just on defense. He’s closer to 2.5 in hitting; he’s providing OBP and decent hitting skills at any position you need him to play. It’s not as sexy as hitting moonshots, but it’s real value.
Well let’s just say that he’s in the top 5, since #2-5 in that list are real close in WAR.
Now, about that WAR, take a look at Zobrist vs. Cano in that chart:
– In the first group of numbers, Cano clearly has had the better “traditional” hitting stats.
– In the next group, we see that Zobrist drew walks a lot more often, which brings his OBP up to where the difference between him and Cano shrinks to 13% of league average (138 wRC+ vs. 125 wRC+)
– In the last section, Zobrist was one of the best baserunners and defenders in the game. This is enough to make up the difference in hitting between him and Cano (who was average on the bases and in the field).
The issue isn’t with WAR. The issue is that Ben Zobrist does just about all of the “little things” a lot better than the average guy.
He’s better than Heyward and Upton (although Upton may have had the same trade value, because teams value offensive runs more highly than defensive ones).
The question has to be whether you like this trade better for the Rays than you would have the Heyward deal, and as much as you would have liked the Upton deal.
If I’m the Rays, I’ll take Jaso/Robertson/Powell over Miller/Jenkins.
I’d probably have preferred Fried/Peterson/Peterson/Smith, but it’s pretty close considering Fried’s injury.
Not a bad deal at all, given what we know to be the market for a single year of players of his caliber this offseason.
The A’s will be lucky to finish in front of the Astros in 2015.
Finally someone showing my Astros the respect we deserve. I also agree this is going to be a 1-2 horse race down the stretch and with a little luck, the A’s just might take the division by a nose. Best of luck to your A’s and luckily there’s enough room for the two of us come October! #StrosNHoes2k15
I think you meant 2019.
The A’s are betting that a high floor is worth more than a high ceiling, and I think they might be onto something. Looking at their depth charts, they’re so well prepared for an injury or for a crappy season from one or two of their regulars that they would count on, if their 40-man weren’t so deep. It’s an interesting strategy, and one that might well pay out.
Its played out over the last three seasons…
Interesting article. Watching Phegley in Chicago with his ill-fated attempts to be a major leaguer, he is clearly not. His AAA hitting has not translated and, despite a reasonably strong arm, he is not good defensively. A minor piece of the puzzle perhaps, but a lousy one. Semien should be a pretty good utility guy and Bassitt may help in the bullpen, but I wouldn’t count on any help from Phegley.
But his Steamer projection is 0.8!
Phegley threw out nearly 50% of baserunners last year, what are you basing this hatred of his D on?
Crappy pitch framing and blocking
So he’s Derek Norris but he can actually throw out runners? He’s an improvement then.
Wait…Josh Phegley is 25 and an above average MLB hitter?! That changes everything!
I thought he was a 26 year old with a career wRC+ of 43 in his 76 career MLB games.
“Despite a reasonably strong arm.”
Another article which assumes that a legion of new players will jell immediately into a cohesive squad, will perform exactly how the metrics say they will, no one gets hurt, everyone adjusts to their new stadium and city, everyone gets along, etc. The A’s seem very comfortable with this and have pulled it off in the past, but it might be problematic for other teams like the Padres, Dodgers, Marlins etc.
Bob Melvin is a huge factor in this. Everyone in the industry has raved about his ability to create chemistry within a team.
Chemistry is important, it’s just that talent is WAY more important; something to the tune of 20/80. You hear chemistry talked about a lot in the media because (i) they don’t understand advanced (or even rudimentary) metrics and (ii) there is more bandwidth than there is content so they are trying to fill it.
Considering that the article explicitly mentioned that projections are just projections, I’m not entirely sure where you’re getting that…
Also, they are better positioned than literally anybody (except maybe the the Red Sox) to absorb an injury or two. There rotation goes (at least) 7 deep and they have enough pieces to mix and match a good lineup together even 2 or 3 position player injuries.
Side note: injury potential IS built into the projections, and its one of the reasons Steamer like the A’s so much as a team!
Beane has traded off the 2nd rarest commodity in MLB twice in the past year now: shortstops who can hit just can’t be found. For all the talk about finance, a cost controlled shortstop who can swing… Is every teams dream of a building block. Mayo/Callis have Russell ranked 3rd (in the Southern League last year age 20) and Robertson ranked 10th (California league age 20 season). The chance that either of these lads might have the rarest commodity to boot – power – and this is complete madness. 1 year of Zobrist versus six years of control, no matter the expense at the back end, or 2 years of the Shark… These are bad, bad trades going on. Beane is trying to shorten the cycle to the point of high comedy, but chasing immediate results will have a cost for the future, and soon.
At the same time, he has added more of these shortstops that can hit – Marcus Semien and Franklin Barreto. Just as Robertson made Russell expendable, Barreto and Semien made Robertson expendable.
Beane trades most of his prospects since they as a whole have more value then after some bust, usually the only players the team graduates are players they just acquired who are big league ready.
Dude, Robertson really isn’t a huge loss for a player of Zobrist’s caliber.
Addison for Shark was nuts, but Robertson isn’t even going to crack 60 on the community list, & there’s a reason for that.
Addison already having injury concerns so early in his career gives more than enough reason to be used in a trade.
To be used in a trade? Sure.
To be traded for a year and a half of a #3 starter? Absolutely not.
They paid for him like he was Cliff Lee or Jon Lester, but he’s just Jeff Samardzija.
Granted 2012 and 13 were maybe #3 status, but Shark put up 4.1 WAR last year. That’s not #3 starter territory. That’s a #1 or a #2 if you have a Felix Hernandez on your team.
There are 8-12 #1 starters in baseball at any given time. Samardzija is not, by any standard, a #1 starter.
He pitched like a #2 this year, for the first time. Lots of #3 starters pitch like #2 starters in a single year.
Unless he establishes himself as a consistent 3.5-4.5 WAR guy going forward, he’s not a #2 starter, and certainly shouldn’t have been paid for like a #1.
8-12 #1 starters in the game….er ok. But we have 30 teams. So 18-22 teams don’t have a #1 starter? Or really probably more, because some teams have 2 #1 starts. This is nonsensical bucketing.
Even Shark’s 2.6 WAR in 2013 was 49th on the pitching WAR leader boards, which if #1 starter is defined by top-30, #2 is 31-60, he’s squarely in the middle of the #2 group.
But if want to define #1 starter as “needs to compete for a Cy Young award in most years”, so be it. I, however, reject that definition.
BTW, Shark’s 2014 was good enough for 15th on the WAR leaderboard. Please explain to me how 15th in WAR isn’t ace status, but I don’t 11th on that list is was someone with .4 more WAR, could be considered an ace?
I guess there were really only 10 #1s in your eyes this year though, since the only real gap is between 10th and 11th, with 5.2 and 4.5 WAR, respectively….this whole argument seems pretty arbitrary and contrived.
No, it’s correctly using the term “#1 starter” in an evaluative sense. An ace is someone from whom you expect 4.5 or more WAR from each year. A #1 might put up 4 WAR in a given year, or a #2 (from whom one would expect 3.5-4.5 WAR) may put up 5 WAR, but what distinguishes them is the expected value.
What would be nonsensical is calling Scott Kazmir a number one starter, and Stephen Strasburg a number two, because they were the first and second best starters on their respective teams last season.
Jordan Zimmerman and Adam Wainwright are definitively in separate tiers, and it’s silly to pretend otherwise.
I can understand wanting to use expectation to define #1, #2, etc. starters, rather than actual performance, but I still don’t think your cut offs are all right. There are exactly 3 starting pitchers with a Steamer projected 4.5 or more WAR season ahead of them. I’d rather go with what is typically expected from ~30th best pitcher in the game to define #1 starter. Just scrolling around, its looking like the that usually sits around 3-3.5 WAR.
But its all semantics anyway. You want #1 starter to mean something in which only maybe 1/4 of the teams in the league are going to have. When the term would seem to imply the meaning of “would typically be the best pitcher on a given team”, at least to me. I guess someone could do the stats here, but I’d like to know what the amount of WAR needed to stand a 50-50 shot at having the best WAR on the team is?
Madison Bumgarner has had 3.6 WAR in each of the past 2 seasons. I think a lot of people would call him a #1 starter and the ace of the Giants staff. Just because he’s not Clayton Kershaw doesn’t mean he’s not a #1.
If you watched Samardzija pitch for the A’s last season you watched a guy who pitched like an ace.
Actually, people who know how to use the word “ace” consider Bumgarner a perfect example of #2 starter. Andy Pettitte was the quintessential #2 starter, and if it weren’t for HGH, he’d have a solid HOF case. Matt Cain’s another guy who was more of an elite 2 than an ace
And, as for Steamer, let’s look at the actual numbers:
Last year, 11 players had 4.5 or more FIP-WAR, and 13 players had 4.5 or more RA9-WAR.
Over the last 2 years, 10 players have 9 or more FIP-WAR, and 11 players have 9 or more RA9-WAR.
Over the last 3 years, 10 players have 13 or more FIP-WAR, and 12 players have 13 or more RA9-WAR.
So, yeah, 4.5 WAR a year is pretty much the perfect cutoff for the “10-12 in baseball at any given moment” definition of “Ace.”
Here’s an article from John Sickels on the subject: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/8/7/3226335/defining-1-2-3-4-5-starters
The whole “1-5” starter designations are some of the dumbest baseball lingo that is still being used.
There’s many different kinds of SPs. The greats (aces) appear on CY Young voting ballots, then there’s everyone else. But teams can have multiple greats (aces) in their rotations, so assigning them a totally arbitrary number is meaningless. Glavine was never better than Smoltz, they are both HOFers so they are both aces.
We really do need to end this dumb “1-5” idea that places a value on where a guy pitches, especially when some managers don’t even place their best guys in order for whatever reason. There’s “aces” and then there’s everyone else. Get with the times, everybody.
Eh, I’d say a No. 2 is qualitatively different from a No. 4, and it’s worth making the distinction.
Maybe a better way would be to use the scouting scale, and call Aces 70s, Twos 65s, Threes 60s, Fours 50s and Fives 45s, but it’s much easier to have the simple 1/2/3/4/5 ordination.
People just need to understand (and make it understood) that the numbers refer to the pitcher’s tier, rather than where he pitches in the rotation.
Just because you don’t think a pitcher is an “ace” (in relation to the rest of the league) does not mean he’s not the “ace” of a staff. James Shields last year is a good example.
Semantical? Yes. No need to be pissy about other people’s idea of “how to use the word.”
I am surprised that no- one is pointing out that Yunel is actually a negative value here. At his salary, the declining defense & offense are a drag on the payroll. Zobrist, Semien, & Lawrie are all going to start, and Yunel is the expensive backup taken off the hands of the Rays. Given Lawrie’s history, maybe needed, but many players do lose their value at Escobar’s age, and every indication is that this has happened. If Zobrist takes a step back too, itwontbe pretty.
Why is everyone acting like Butler is a great pickup? Look at the career curve and tell me why at his age & physique this is going to be a great 2015 for Butler. And then you got 2016 to look forward to…
Escobar had consistently hit average or better for a shortstop and played above average defense. Nobody seems to know why his defense took a step back last year, so it’s easy to blame on fluke/injury. I think Yunel starts full time at shortstop. Something like:
vs. RHP – LF Fuld, CF Crisp, SS Escobar, 2B Zobrist, bench Semien, Gentry
vs. LHP – LF Zobrist, CF Gentry, SS Escobar, 2B Semien, bench Fuld, Crisp (or DH Crisp with Butler at first if Canha is dropped from the roster).
As for Butler, not much of anyone is saying he’ll be great. But he has a high floor, and his wRC+ by half seasons since 2012: 131, 148, 114, 121, 90, 110. First half of 2014 was terrible, but not bad second half. Plus, it’s gonna be near impossible for him to be worse that what Oakland had at DH last year – wRC+ of 88, if I’m using the graphs correctly.
You are really underestimating the fact of how terrible the 2nd half A’s were. They are using Bulter to replace Alberto Callaspo.
Alberto Callaspo.
That is a ridiculous statement
Callaspo was the DH for a lot of games last year. He grounded into double plays like it was his job.
Then one more thing re Yunel. Wasn’t he seen as baseball’s biggest clubhouse cancer prior to coming to Tampa? Now he’s coming to a team where half the guys in the clubhouse are new to each other, and he may well wind up with way fewer ABs than he’s used to. This part of the trade has huge negative downside, unless you’re fully certain Yunel has grown up. And even team leaders can become mouthy, self-centered jerks when for the first time ever in their lives they come to the clubhouse every day and regularly see their name NOT on the posted lineup card.
Yeah, he wrote the Spanish equivalent of the bad fucking F-Word on his eye black when he was in Toronto.
I’m guessing Tampa, who also employs Josh Lueke, doesn’t care that much about trivial things like that, but other clubs might.
Zobrist was literally his DP partner the last two seasons. Bob Melvin is viewed as a god in terms of selling players into being all platoons without anyone acting out. The only players who can challenge Yunel at SS are Zobrist himself and Semien. Escobar will be everyday until Barreto is ready – and many scouts have said he’s already got the glove and can be a fast-riser.
Any mashing OF/1B types out there who could be traded for prospects and $5M? Either? Howard(lol)?
As much of a “nice guy” Sam Fuld is, Craig Gentry already does everything he does, albeit is injury prone. Either one of those could probably be moved in a deal for the right guy.
On the FA front, I’d love to see Colby Rasmus picked up because he has glove+power, he’d be a fine guy to play LF until the inevitable Crisp injury when he could be moved back to CF.
I think people are underselling what Ike Davis could provide next year in a 1B/DH platoon role as well. This is a guy who had a 15% Walk Rate, 16% K Rate against RHP last year. He sacrificed a little power (.159 ISO) for the better contact, but that still could be enough for 15-20 HRs with good OBP.
As a Pirates fan and a big Ike Davis apologist for years, I don’t think you can expect 15-20 HRs from Ike. He has hit 20 HRs in the last 2 years combined and is moving from one pitchers park to another pitchers park in the more difficult league.
I think you’re being overly pessimistic. Ike has gone through a variety of mechanical tweaks and approach changes over the year. This guy has as much raw power as just about anybody. It has not disappeared. He’ll be 28. His average fly ball distance bounced back to 287 feet. Oh yeah, there’s plenty of juice left in this guy. I would imagine you would have had a similar opinion of Brandon Moss after his 13 HRs in 1.5 seasons with you.
Oakland bought a one-year rental of an aging middle infielder and a mediocre shortstop. In exchange they gave up a top-tier shortstop prospect and an apparently high-level CF prospect.
They just traded Jeff Samardzija (for whom they gave up Russell) for Marcus Semien, in a move that seemed to mitigate their need for a 2Bman or SS. I think Semien is a quality player who deserves a starting role.
It just seems to me that the A’s could have invested less money in Kang Jung Ho and held Robertson and Powell.
Beane has never shied away from dealing high-end prospects. But he has on occasion overpaid. This seems like a wasteful overpay to me. The Rays made out well.
FWIW – It is hard to imagine a player more different from the real Boog Powell than this new Boog Powell. I can’t associate the name Boog Powell with a small, speedy CFer.
I think the preferred route was probably to sign Headley, shift Lawrie to 2B, and then try to acquire someone like Escobar for a lower level prospect such as Powell. After plan A fell through, they shifted their attention to Zobrist.
Considering the scope of the market for Zobrist, it was bound to take a high-level prospect like Robertson to get the deal done. The same would hold true in a theoretical deadline deal should the A’s find themselves out of contention come July. I like the gamble, but would have preferred the Headley gambit.
Robertson is not a top tier SS prospect. Just sayin’.
Yeah, he’s probably the A’s best prospect, but he’s still only a good-not-great SS prospect.
Know how I know you’re old?
lol
The Rays have literally said they are looking at Robertson as a 2B, and Beane said he has a Mark Ellis-esque ceiling. Barreto was the most coveted Jays prospect in trade deals because he is a true SS, his glove is first, Robertsons glove might play there, but probably not. He’s more than likely going to be an everyday guy, but people are really not understanding that the A’s are in win-now mode.
Calling Zobrist “an aging middle infielder” is just incorrect and makes you look like you are utterly clueless about everything. Powell is a terrible CF and actually has no skills other than OBP and doing amphetamines.
You must be a Giants fan/A’s/Beane-hater. No other way to describe how silly your post is.
Its just amazing how to some people everything on the A’s is terrible until they trade it away for some thing worse.
Would it have been better for Beene to trade for Zobrist last year instead of Lester or Shark?
Yes. But he did not have Barreto last year. He does not trade Robertson if he does not have Barreto.
If he doesn’t trade for Shark, he has Russell, who’s a hell of a lot better than Barreto (and I really like Barreto).
If he doesn’t trade for Shark, the A’s don’t make the playoffs. They scraped in by one game and the other options were a rapidly declining Chavez or Josh Lindblom. Yeah, they are missing it.
Sadly, they ended up with the best starting rotation in the playoffs last year but never got to use it.
But getting Zobrist (for a non-Russell prospect) could have made it a wash, especially considering that trading away their offense for Lester is what tanked them in the second half.
Oh geez, not the “blame team wide injuries on a trade” argument again….
Good point. It’s inconceivable that replacing Cespedes with Jonny Gomes could have hurt their offense in the second half.
Semien could be as good as JJ Hardy or something. People act like he is chopped liver. Russell looks good no doubt but honestly I peg him as a JJ Hardy type. A couple of all-star games, solid fielding, starter in the league for many years to come. Semien could be that or a shade lower. He may hit for more power than Russell as well. Overall for me as an A’s fan getting Semien takes a lot of the sting out of losing Russell.
I think a lot of people are forgetting that there is the real possibility that Donaldson no longer is a 3b and might have to move to the outfield. Time will tell but the beginnings of Chuck Knoblaugh and Steve Sax disease is moving up and down per fangraphs analysis. It doesn’t hurt him now but if 17 turns into 20 it could. Either way the As have remade themselves and we will just have to see how it pans out.