2015 ZiPS Projections – New York Mets

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the New York Mets. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Chicago AL / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Oakland / San Francisco / St. Louis / Tampa Bay / Washington.

Batters
Mets batters produced 18.2 WAR collectively in 2014, an almost precisely average figure among the league’s 30 clubs. Given the projections below, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them replicate that effort in 2015. All eight of the team’s likely starters are forecast to produce something between 0.9 and 3.8 WAR — and six of them, between 1.8 to 3.1 WAR.

An area of some interest with regard to the club seems to be how Terry Collins et al. contend with Lucas Duda and Lucas Duda’s difficulties with left-handed pitching. Despite a strong 2014 season, the Mets first baseman produced only a 54 wRC+ against left handers. By way of comparison, the worst overall figure among the game’s 146 qualified batters in 2014 was Zack Cozart’s 56 wRC+. Either John Mayberry (333 PA, -0.1 WAR) or even Eric Campbell (416 PA, 0.5 WAR) are candidates to platoon with Duda.

Pitchers
The order in which the Mets starters appear in the depth-chart image below does not reflect their likely respective positions in the rotation, but rather their projected WAR figures. By this arrangement, one notes, Bartolo Colon descends from second to fifth among the group, while Jacob deGrom ascends from fifth to second. deGrom, a relatively anonymous prospect entering the 2014 season, now features a projection nearly identical — in strikeout rate and walk rate and other assorted metrics — to Matt Harvey’s.

New York recorded the worst and only negative bullpen WAR in the league last year. A combination of roster turnover and the probability of positive regression, however, have rendered the provisional 2015 bullpen a more competent one. Absent from the team almost all of last season due to a Tommy John procedure was Bobby Parnell. He’s absent from the depth-chart image below, as well, but only because he’s unlikely to return right at the beginning of the season. His presence is likely to help the relief corps.

Bench/Prospects
The Mets feature multiple prospects expected to begin the season in the minor leagues but, per ZiPS, capable of producing basically league-average numbers starting right now. Second baseman Dilson Herrera and catcher Kevin Plawecki both feature projections in the vicinity of 2.0 WAR, while other infielders Danny Muno and Wilfredo Tovar — each at 1.0 WAR or better — both profile as able bench pieces. Among pitchers, the triumvirate of Steven Matz (1.8 WAR), Rafael Montero (1.7 WAR) Noah Syndergaard (1.8 WAR) concede — again, per ZiPS — concede very little to the five pitchers expected to occupy spots in the opening-day rotation.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Mets, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Mets Depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
David Wright R 32 3B 558 67 137 28 3 13 70 11 5
Lucas Duda L 29 1B 562 75 126 26 1 26 92 3 1
Juan Lagares R 26 CF 542 58 133 25 5 6 55 13 6
Daniel Murphy L 30 2B 643 84 172 35 3 10 70 13 4
Wilmer Flores R 23 SS 570 73 142 27 4 17 80 1 2
Travis d’Arnaud R 26 C 399 50 93 20 2 14 49 1 0
Kevin Plawecki R 24 C 437 51 100 20 1 8 44 0 0
Curtis Granderson L 34 RF 521 71 105 19 3 21 60 9 3
Dilson Herrera R 21 2B 612 77 137 23 4 16 70 14 6
Ruben Tejada R 25 SS 507 48 113 21 1 3 39 3 2
Wilfredo Tovar R 23 SS 436 51 103 12 3 3 36 9 8
Zach Lutz R 29 3B 381 47 83 15 2 10 42 1 1
Danny Muno B 26 2B 469 58 92 16 2 8 43 10 6
Matt den Dekker L 27 CF 519 66 114 24 6 9 52 14 6
Brandon Nimmo L 22 CF 545 68 110 16 7 8 48 8 5
Cesar Puello R 24 LF 377 50 82 16 3 8 41 14 3
Kirk Nieuwenhuis L 27 LF 364 46 73 17 3 11 41 6 3
Michael Cuddyer R 36 RF 372 42 92 21 2 12 44 6 1
Brian Burgamy B 34 3B 381 49 76 14 1 13 41 2 2
Matt Reynolds R 24 SS 459 52 97 14 4 5 38 9 3
Alex Castellanos R 28 3B 457 59 93 19 5 10 48 10 5
LJ Mazzilli R 24 2B 493 56 110 19 2 9 50 7 3
Eric Campbell R 28 1B 416 47 92 19 1 6 39 7 2
Anthony Recker R 31 C 240 26 45 10 0 8 31 1 2
Darrell Ceciliani L 25 CF 410 45 90 12 4 5 35 14 5
Johnny Monell L 29 C 354 38 71 17 1 7 35 3 2
Omar Quintanilla L 33 SS 320 33 67 12 2 3 29 2 2
Gavin Cecchini R 21 SS 453 52 95 19 3 7 42 5 4
Jairo Perez R 27 1B 317 35 75 13 2 8 37 3 3
Taylor Teagarden R 31 C 176 18 31 4 0 6 20 0 0
Jayce Boyd R 24 1B 461 55 104 17 2 7 45 1 3
Anthony Seratelli B 32 2B 395 43 78 10 3 6 33 11 4
John Mayberry Jr. R 31 1B 333 38 69 17 0 10 40 3 1
Brandon Allen L 29 1B 408 50 81 15 3 11 45 3 1
Travis Taijeron R 26 RF 443 52 80 21 2 14 52 1 2
Bobby Abreu L 41 RF 225 23 46 11 0 3 23 4 1
Cory Vaughn R 26 RF 451 47 80 14 2 10 40 10 3

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
David Wright 558 9.3% 18.3% .147 .320 .275 .346 .422 .333
Lucas Duda 562 11.4% 21.2% .219 .291 .260 .354 .479 .359
Juan Lagares 542 4.8% 21.0% .106 .328 .264 .305 .370 .295
Daniel Murphy 643 5.3% 12.9% .118 .315 .286 .323 .404 .320
Wilmer Flores 570 4.4% 14.9% .162 .286 .266 .300 .428 .314
Travis d’Arnaud 399 7.3% 18.8% .181 .284 .255 .313 .436 .326
Kevin Plawecki 437 5.7% 14.4% .116 .278 .251 .307 .367 .299
Curtis Granderson 521 10.7% 25.1% .193 .274 .231 .319 .424 .329
Dilson Herrera 612 6.0% 24.8% .141 .303 .244 .295 .385 .301
Ruben Tejada 507 7.7% 15.2% .071 .293 .249 .317 .320 .280
Wilfredo Tovar 436 5.5% 10.8% .067 .282 .256 .306 .323 .277
Zach Lutz 381 8.4% 25.7% .144 .311 .244 .316 .388 .311
Danny Muno 469 10.7% 22.4% .108 .283 .226 .316 .334 .293
Matt den Dekker 519 6.9% 26.6% .133 .318 .241 .298 .374 .297
Brandon Nimmo 545 10.3% 28.1% .112 .317 .228 .313 .340 .294
Cesar Puello 377 5.0% 26.5% .136 .319 .242 .314 .378 .313
Kirk Nieuwenhuis 364 8.8% 30.8% .172 .302 .224 .296 .396 .302
Michael Cuddyer 372 7.5% 19.1% .179 .308 .271 .325 .450 .339
Brian Burgamy 381 8.7% 27.8% .160 .278 .221 .291 .381 .297
Matt Reynolds 459 6.1% 23.3% .088 .295 .232 .286 .320 .273
Alex Castellanos 457 6.6% 30.0% .142 .307 .224 .288 .366 .288
LJ Mazzilli 493 5.1% 21.5% .109 .290 .240 .283 .349 .281
Eric Campbell 416 9.6% 20.9% .106 .310 .251 .330 .357 .311
Anthony Recker 240 7.5% 30.8% .157 .270 .207 .269 .364 .277
Darrell Ceciliani 410 4.9% 26.8% .092 .317 .237 .282 .329 .274
Johnny Monell 354 7.6% 26.0% .125 .283 .220 .282 .345 .279
Omar Quintanilla 320 7.5% 18.4% .086 .279 .232 .293 .318 .266
Gavin Cecchini 453 6.6% 21.4% .111 .278 .228 .279 .339 .272
Jairo Perez 317 4.4% 17.4% .140 .286 .255 .300 .395 .303
Taylor Teagarden 176 7.4% 35.8% .137 .272 .194 .257 .331 .263
Jayce Boyd 461 8.0% 18.2% .100 .295 .249 .315 .349 .297
Anthony Seratelli 395 9.1% 23.5% .096 .283 .222 .298 .318 .281
John Mayberry Jr. 333 7.8% 22.8% .156 .271 .228 .294 .384 .301
Brandon Allen 408 9.1% 24.5% .148 .271 .221 .294 .369 .295
Travis Taijeron 443 8.1% 38.4% .168 .307 .202 .280 .370 .290
Bobby Abreu 225 11.6% 19.1% .101 .281 .234 .320 .335 .296
Cory Vaughn 451 7.8% 32.8% .119 .282 .198 .276 .317 .271

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
David Wright 558 5.5 117 4 3.8 Gil McDougald
Lucas Duda 562 6.2 134 0 3.1 Adam LaRoche
Juan Lagares 542 4.2 90 14 3.0 Alexis Rios
Daniel Murphy 643 5.0 105 -8 2.2 Todd Walker
Wilmer Flores 570 4.7 104 -7 2.1 Zoilo Versalles
Travis d’Arnaud 399 5.0 110 -7 2.1 Dave Valle
Kevin Plawecki 437 4.1 90 0 2.0 John Jaso
Curtis Granderson 521 4.8 109 0 1.8 Ron Gant
Dilson Herrera 612 4.1 91 -1 1.7 Josh Barfield
Ruben Tejada 507 3.6 82 2 1.4 Liu Rodriguez
Wilfredo Tovar 436 3.4 79 4 1.3 Ismael Gallo
Zach Lutz 381 4.4 99 -4 1.1 Wes Helms
Danny Muno 469 3.6 85 -1 1.1 Joe Lawrence
Matt den Dekker 519 4.0 89 -3 1.1 Corey Patterson
Brandon Nimmo 545 3.7 85 -3 1.0 Herm Winningham
Cesar Puello 377 4.5 95 0 0.9 Ivan Calderon
Kirk Nieuwenhuis 364 4.1 94 4 0.9 Alonzo Powell
Michael Cuddyer 372 5.6 117 -8 0.9 Tom Paciorek
Brian Burgamy 381 3.8 89 -3 0.7 Brandon Inge
Matt Reynolds 459 3.3 72 0 0.7 Edwin Rodriguez
Alex Castellanos 457 3.7 84 -3 0.7 Brandon Powell
LJ Mazzilli 493 3.5 78 -1 0.6 Ruben Santana
Eric Campbell 416 4.3 95 0 0.5 Ed Jurak
Anthony Recker 240 3.2 78 -2 0.5 Steve Yeager
Darrell Ceciliani 410 3.4 73 0 0.3 Herm Winningham
Johnny Monell 354 3.3 77 -7 0.2 Bill Hayes
Omar Quintanilla 320 3.2 74 -2 0.2 Dan Rohn
Gavin Cecchini 453 3.2 74 -4 0.2 Scott Leius
Jairo Perez 317 4.2 95 0 0.1 Brad Correll
Taylor Teagarden 176 2.9 66 -2 0.1 Dave Duncan
Jayce Boyd 461 3.8 88 0 0.0 Chris Pritchett
Anthony Seratelli 395 3.4 75 -6 -0.1 Brian Guinn
John Mayberry Jr. 333 4.0 91 -2 -0.1 Jim Vatcher
Brandon Allen 408 3.8 87 -1 -0.2 Nate Murphy
Travis Taijeron 443 3.4 83 -3 -0.2 Dan Cataline
Bobby Abreu 225 3.9 86 -5 -0.3 Brian Jordan
Cory Vaughn 451 3.0 68 -1 -0.7 Jeremy Dodson

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Matt Harvey R 26 25 25 153.0 140 49 10 129 57 53
Jacob deGrom R 27 29 29 174.3 159 53 12 159 68 64
Zack Wheeler R 25 31 31 175.7 172 67 15 159 73 68
Noah Syndergaard R 22 26 26 134.3 142 38 13 122 56 52
Steven Matz L 24 25 25 141.7 125 44 11 134 60 56
Rafael Montero R 24 29 28 144.7 139 50 14 131 62 58
Jon Niese L 28 28 28 171.7 132 46 16 172 77 72
Bartolo Colon R 42 26 26 167.7 115 27 18 179 80 75
Dillon Gee R 29 23 23 142.0 107 40 18 142 71 66
Dario Alvarez L 26 23 9 65.3 67 28 6 59 29 27
Jenrry Mejia R 25 43 8 78.3 81 30 8 72 34 32
Jeurys Familia R 25 65 0 65.3 63 28 5 56 25 23
Jack Leathersich L 24 51 0 60.0 88 37 5 43 22 21
Carlos Torres R 32 53 9 107.3 95 39 13 101 50 47
Zach Thornton R 27 49 0 69.0 68 20 6 62 28 26
Dana Eveland L 31 34 10 85.3 69 30 8 84 41 38
Akeel Morris R 22 34 0 44.7 59 22 4 34 17 16
Cory Mazzoni R 25 17 17 94.7 74 28 11 95 48 45
Chasen Bradford R 25 59 0 76.3 65 13 8 74 32 30
Bobby Parnell R 30 47 0 44.7 37 13 3 42 18 17
Logan Verrett R 25 24 24 141.3 104 29 20 149 75 70
Josh Edgin L 28 68 0 47.0 46 21 4 41 20 19
Vic Black R 27 57 0 56.3 61 33 5 48 25 23
Darin Gorski L 27 20 18 100.0 88 36 15 99 54 50
Erik Goeddel R 26 56 0 75.7 71 32 7 70 35 33
Jose Valverde R 37 33 0 31.7 28 13 4 30 16 15
Jeremy Hefner R 29 18 15 79.7 56 24 11 85 45 42
Scott Rice L 33 49 0 35.3 29 20 3 34 18 17
Daisuke Matsuzaka R 34 27 17 96.0 80 49 11 92 54 50
Sean Gilmartin L 25 24 24 125.3 85 44 16 135 71 66
Joel Carreno R 28 33 7 70.0 61 35 9 69 39 36
Buddy Carlyle R 37 40 1 55.0 49 18 8 54 29 27
Carlos Alvarado R 37 19 13 77.0 49 43 8 81 46 43
Hansel Robles R 24 24 17 96.7 81 45 14 99 57 53
Gabriel Ynoa R 22 24 24 138.0 86 28 25 159 87 81

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Matt Harvey 153.0 637 22.0% 7.7% .275 3.12 3.24 88 91
Jacob deGrom 174.3 735 21.6% 7.2% .291 3.30 3.21 93 90
Zack Wheeler 175.7 753 22.8% 8.9% .294 3.48 3.59 98 101
Noah Syndergaard 134.3 563 25.2% 6.8% .300 3.48 3.28 98 92
Steven Matz 141.7 603 20.7% 7.3% .296 3.56 3.52 100 99
Rafael Montero 144.7 615 22.6% 8.1% .288 3.61 3.68 101 103
Jon Niese 171.7 733 18.0% 6.3% .292 3.77 3.72 106 105
Bartolo Colon 167.7 709 16.2% 3.8% .295 4.03 3.70 113 104
Dillon Gee 142.0 608 17.6% 6.6% .284 4.18 4.29 117 120
Dario Alvarez 65.3 283 23.7% 9.9% .298 3.72 3.74 104 105
Jenrry Mejia 78.3 337 24.0% 8.9% .298 3.68 3.51 103 99
Jeurys Familia 65.3 280 22.5% 10.0% .280 3.17 3.44 89 97
Jack Leathersich 60.0 260 33.8% 14.2% .297 3.15 3.28 88 92
Carlos Torres 107.3 462 20.6% 8.4% .284 3.94 4.16 111 117
Zach Thornton 69.0 289 23.5% 6.9% .293 3.39 3.34 95 94
Dana Eveland 85.3 370 18.7% 8.1% .297 4.01 4.01 113 113
Akeel Morris 44.7 190 31.0% 11.6% .294 3.22 3.38 90 95
Cory Mazzoni 94.7 407 18.2% 6.9% .291 4.28 4.17 120 117
Chasen Bradford 76.3 316 20.6% 4.1% .291 3.54 3.47 99 97
Bobby Parnell 44.7 189 19.6% 6.9% .289 3.43 3.20 96 90
Logan Verrett 141.3 602 17.3% 4.8% .292 4.46 4.31 125 121
Josh Edgin 47.0 203 22.7% 10.3% .285 3.64 3.79 102 107
Vic Black 56.3 250 24.4% 13.2% .291 3.67 4.03 103 113
Darin Gorski 100.0 435 20.2% 8.3% .289 4.50 4.60 126 129
Erik Goeddel 75.7 329 21.6% 9.7% .292 3.93 3.85 110 108
Jose Valverde 31.7 138 20.3% 9.4% .285 4.26 4.28 120 120
Jeremy Hefner 79.7 348 16.1% 6.9% .291 4.74 4.51 133 127
Scott Rice 35.3 160 18.1% 12.5% .293 4.33 4.34 122 122
Daisuke Matsuzaka 96.0 429 18.6% 11.4% .287 4.69 4.69 132 132
Sean Gilmartin 125.3 555 15.3% 7.9% .295 4.74 4.68 133 131
Joel Carreno 70.0 314 19.4% 11.1% .293 4.63 4.73 130 133
Buddy Carlyle 55.0 237 20.7% 7.6% .289 4.42 4.38 124 123
Carlos Alvarado 77.0 355 13.8% 12.1% .292 5.03 5.13 141 144
Hansel Robles 96.7 434 18.7% 10.4% .295 4.93 4.97 138 139
Gabriel Ynoa 138.0 601 14.3% 4.7% .295 5.28 5.05 148 142

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Matt Harvey 153.0 8.24 2.88 0.59 114 2.8 Brian Holman
Jacob deGrom 174.3 8.21 2.74 0.62 107 2.8 Jason Schmidt
Zack Wheeler 175.7 8.81 3.43 0.77 102 2.4 Bob Walk
Noah Syndergaard 134.3 9.52 2.55 0.87 102 1.8 Kevin Millwood
Steven Matz 141.7 7.94 2.79 0.70 100 1.8 Danny Jackson
Rafael Montero 144.7 8.65 3.11 0.87 98 1.7 Kurt Ainsworth
Jon Niese 171.7 6.92 2.41 0.84 94 1.7 Scott Karl
Bartolo Colon 167.7 6.17 1.45 0.97 88 1.1 Jim Bunning
Dillon Gee 142.0 6.78 2.54 1.14 85 0.6 Chris Codiroli
Dario Alvarez 65.3 9.23 3.86 0.83 95 0.6 Rod Scurry
Jenrry Mejia 78.3 9.31 3.45 0.92 96 0.5 Tim Scott
Jeurys Familia 65.3 8.68 3.86 0.69 112 0.5 Lee Smith
Jack Leathersich 60.0 13.20 5.55 0.75 113 0.5 Randy Myers
Carlos Torres 107.3 7.97 3.27 1.09 90 0.3 Pat Mahomes
Zach Thornton 69.0 8.87 2.61 0.78 105 0.3 Jim Mecir
Dana Eveland 85.3 7.28 3.17 0.84 88 0.3 Terry Burrows
Akeel Morris 44.7 11.88 4.43 0.81 110 0.3 Armando Benitez
Cory Mazzoni 94.7 7.03 2.66 1.05 83 0.3 Joe Bitker
Chasen Bradford 76.3 7.67 1.53 0.94 100 0.2 Randy Graham
Bobby Parnell 44.7 7.45 2.62 0.60 103 0.2 Todd Williams
Logan Verrett 141.3 6.62 1.85 1.27 80 0.1 Josh Towers
Josh Edgin 47.0 8.81 4.02 0.77 97 0.1 Matt Whisenant
Vic Black 56.3 9.75 5.28 0.80 96 0.1 Calvin Jones
Darin Gorski 100.0 7.92 3.24 1.35 79 0.0 Dan Meyer
Erik Goeddel 75.7 8.44 3.80 0.83 90 -0.2 Brian Bowles
Jose Valverde 31.7 7.95 3.69 1.14 83 -0.2 Mike Fetters
Jeremy Hefner 79.7 6.32 2.71 1.24 75 -0.3 Clint Weibl
Scott Rice 35.3 7.39 5.10 0.76 82 -0.3 Marshall Bridges
Daisuke Matsuzaka 96.0 7.50 4.59 1.03 76 -0.3 Russ Ortiz
Sean Gilmartin 125.3 6.11 3.16 1.15 75 -0.3 Chris Cumberland
Joel Carreno 70.0 7.84 4.50 1.16 77 -0.4 James Warden
Buddy Carlyle 55.0 8.02 2.95 1.31 80 -0.4 Matt Whiteside
Carlos Alvarado 77.0 5.73 5.03 0.94 71 -0.6 Vern Kennedy
Hansel Robles 96.7 7.54 4.19 1.30 72 -0.6 Ron Chiavacci
Gabriel Ynoa 138.0 5.61 1.83 1.63 67 -1.4 John Gardner

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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Carson Cyst-Stooly
Guest
Carson Cyst-Stooly

I’d say the over on 2.8 WAR for Harvey is a pretty safe bet

Los
Guest
Los

Looks up the word “safe”.

Ben
Guest
Ben

Harvey might be a good candidate to far exceed his ZiPS projection

Dovif
Guest

I think all 5 mets pitcher should beat their war projection

Wheeler improved as last year went on. I don’t believe he will regress. He is a breakout sp in 3 places I read already
Degrom beat his projection in 22 start last year
Niese is said to have developed a change up and had pitched at better than 1 war his whole career
Colon is deem to regress, but his fastball is unlikely to get slower