2015 ZiPS Projections – Oakland Athletics

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Oakland Athletics. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Colorado / Los Angeles AL / Miami / Milwaukee / Tampa Bay.

Batters
Oakland catchers combined for the fourth-highest offensive and absolute lowest defensive run totals in the majors last year. In part, the poor defensive record was a result of both John Jaso and Derek Norris making starts at DH (and thereby receiving the attendant negative positional adjustment). In part, it’s because Jaso and Norris aren’t particularly excellent defensive catchers. For ZiPS, at least, the strengths compensate for the weaknesses sufficiently to make catcher the club’s likely most productive position.

Elsewhere, one finds more optimism regarding Marcus Semien’s 2015 season. Not regarding his shortstop defense, of course. ZiPS projects him to concede seven runs there in roughly a full season (which is almost precisely Steamer’s estimate, as well). However, both systems have Semien producing a roughly league-average batting line with roughly league-average (position agnostic) defense. Those estimates conspire to produce a nearly league-average projected WAR.

Pitchers
Jeff Samardzija and Jon Lester produced the fourth- and fifth-highest WAR totals, respectively, among all Oakland pitchers in 2014. Not surprising, that, on account of how they’re talented pitchers. Perhaps more surprising, however, when one considers that neither played even half a season with the club. Their departures, along with Jason Hammel’s, create a lack of serviceable depth within the rotation. Not included on the depth-chart image below but likely to contribute in 2015 are A.J. Griffin and Jarrod Parker. Neither is elite per ZiPS’ computer math, but both would appear to constitute improvements over some of the pieces currently expected to start.

One of those top-five pitchers for the A’s in 2014 — in addition to Samardzija and Lester, that is — was left-hander Sean Doolittle, who actually produced the fifth-best WAR among all major-league relievers. ZiPS anticipates Doolittle more or less repeating that feat: he’s projected to record the fourth-highest WAR among all Oakland pitchers in 2015.

Bench/Prospects
Not included within the depth chart below, but likely relevant to the team’s success, is Stephen Vogt. He’s capable of playing catcher, first base, and either corner-outfield spot — and will probably find time in each capacity, even if he’s never considered a “starter,” per se. Outfielder Billy Burns does a lot of what Sam Fuld and Craig Gentry do. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him earn more than the six plate appearances he received in 2014. Otherwise, the top prospect by projected WAR for 2015 is shortstop Daniel Robertson. A well-rounded offensive player with an above-average defensive profile, too, Robertson nevertheless has made zero appearances above High-A, suggesting his move to the majors is something less than imminent.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the A’s, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Josh Reddick	L	28	RF	506	64	112	22	5	18	66	6	2
Marcus Semien	R	24	SS	625	80	131	28	4	16	71	12	4
Brett Lawrie	R	25	3B	450	48	104	18	2	12	51	8	3
Derek Norris	R	26	C	420	46	84	17	1	12	49	5	2
Coco Crisp	B	35	CF	505	67	113	21	4	11	49	22	5
John Jaso	L	31	C	316	37	70	15	2	7	36	2	1
Stephen Vogt	L	30	C	448	45	104	19	3	11	50	1	1
Craig Gentry	R	31	CF	286	35	65	9	2	1	18	18	4
Jed Lowrie	B	31	SS	526	56	118	26	2	10	52	1	0
Josh Phegley	R	27	C	484	56	103	24	2	11	64	2	1
Billy Butler	R	29	DH	641	61	156	30	0	15	82	1	0
Daniel Robertson	R	21	SS	602	66	131	25	1	9	46	3	6
Billy Burns	B	25	CF	519	55	108	13	4	1	33	38	6
Sam Fuld	L	33	CF	287	31	59	9	3	3	24	13	4
Eric Sogard	L	29	2B	362	40	79	14	1	3	29	9	4
Daric Barton	L	29	1B	470	51	94	21	1	7	44	2	1
Adam Dunn	L	35	DH	499	50	87	15	0	21	66	1	1
Geovany Soto	R	32	C	235	24	45	11	0	6	26	0	1
Andy Parrino	B	29	SS	471	44	91	19	2	5	37	4	1
Mark Canha	R	26	LF	522	60	109	23	2	11	55	3	2
Ike Davis	L	28	1B	441	50	83	19	0	16	59	1	3
Conner Crumbliss	L	28	2B	533	56	97	19	3	9	41	10	3
Jose Martinez	R	29	3B	487	48	109	18	1	7	45	2	2
Luis Martinez	R	30	C	263	22	54	13	0	2	19	0	1
Luke Montz	R	31	C	214	23	38	9	0	7	28	1	1
Kyle Blanks	R	28	1B	246	35	51	10	1	9	26	1	0
Rangel Ravelo	R	23	1B	525	58	120	27	2	9	53	8	4
Shane Peterson	L	27	CF	536	58	109	24	3	9	51	9	2
Carson Blair	R	25	C	257	25	41	10	2	6	22	0	1
Hiroyuki Nakajima	R	32	2B	431	43	96	15	1	5	38	5	4
Alden Carrithers	L	30	3B	376	36	80	11	1	1	25	9	3
Nate Freiman	R	28	1B	454	47	98	22	1	14	60	0	1
Renato Nunez	R	21	3B	590	58	125	22	1	16	60	1	1
Matt Olson	L	21	1B	620	70	112	25	0	22	66	2	1
Nick Punto	B	37	2B	239	22	45	8	1	2	15	2	2
Jonny Gomes	R	34	LF	322	35	61	9	0	10	42	1	0
Tyler Ladendorf	R	27	SS	386	36	72	15	2	5	31	3	1
Bryan Anderson	L	28	C	321	32	63	12	1	7	31	1	1
Andrew Brown	R	30	RF	471	54	93	20	2	15	60	2	1
Colin Walsh	B	25	2B	410	38	76	13	2	5	29	5	2
Chad Pinder	R	23	2B	375	33	76	16	2	6	29	7	8
Anthony Aliotti	L	27	1B	523	49	97	21	1	8	42	1	1

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Josh Reddick	506	8.5%	19.8%	.188	.273	.245	.308	.433	.324
Marcus Semien	625	9.8%	21.1%	.152	.282	.237	.317	.389	.314
Brett Lawrie	450	6.7%	16.7%	.141	.283	.254	.314	.395	.316
Derek Norris	420	11.9%	24.5%	.151	.287	.231	.327	.382	.318
Coco Crisp	505	10.1%	12.3%	.138	.269	.253	.326	.391	.321
John Jaso	316	11.1%	16.5%	.147	.292	.256	.349	.403	.334
Stephen Vogt	448	6.3%	15.4%	.139	.275	.251	.298	.390	.300
Craig Gentry	286	6.6%	17.1%	.062	.309	.254	.322	.316	.291
Jed Lowrie	526	8.4%	14.8%	.127	.278	.250	.315	.377	.304
Josh Phegley	484	4.1%	18.0%	.135	.256	.228	.267	.363	.277
Billy Butler	641	8.9%	15.6%	.131	.304	.272	.340	.403	.323
Daniel Robertson	602	6.8%	19.9%	.099	.290	.239	.303	.338	.285
Billy Burns	519	7.9%	18.5%	.052	.292	.234	.305	.286	.278
Sam Fuld	287	9.4%	14.6%	.095	.267	.232	.307	.327	.285
Eric Sogard	362	7.7%	11.6%	.077	.269	.242	.304	.319	.278
Daric Barton	470	11.7%	15.1%	.109	.262	.232	.328	.341	.303
Adam Dunn	499	13.2%	31.1%	.183	.261	.204	.315	.387	.311
Geovany Soto	235	8.1%	26.8%	.136	.269	.211	.278	.347	.275
Andy Parrino	471	7.4%	25.3%	.088	.281	.213	.279	.301	.261
Mark Canha	522	8.2%	25.9%	.129	.302	.235	.307	.364	.300
Ike Davis	441	13.2%	24.7%	.177	.261	.219	.322	.396	.314
Conner Crumbliss	533	11.3%	20.6%	.113	.255	.211	.308	.324	.287
Jose Martinez	487	5.1%	10.7%	.092	.259	.244	.288	.336	.274
Luis Martinez	263	6.1%	20.9%	.079	.280	.223	.279	.302	.261
Luke Montz	214	8.9%	29.4%	.157	.252	.199	.276	.356	.279
Kyle Blanks	246	8.1%	28.5%	.179	.296	.234	.309	.413	.318
Rangel Ravelo	525	7.4%	17.1%	.123	.292	.253	.314	.376	.305
Shane Peterson	536	9.0%	25.4%	.119	.298	.229	.301	.348	.289
Carson Blair	257	9.7%	39.7%	.140	.285	.179	.261	.319	.261
Hiroyuki Nakajima	431	5.1%	19.7%	.081	.291	.241	.286	.322	.271
Alden Carrithers	376	8.5%	11.7%	.047	.271	.240	.312	.287	.275
Nate Freiman	454	6.8%	21.4%	.160	.275	.238	.297	.398	.306
Renato Nunez	590	3.9%	27.6%	.129	.287	.225	.264	.354	.275
Matt Olson	620	11.0%	30.3%	.166	.265	.204	.295	.370	.298
Nick Punto	239	10.0%	24.3%	.076	.283	.213	.292	.289	.262
Jonny Gomes	322	11.5%	28.0%	.142	.285	.223	.323	.365	.307
Tyler Ladendorf	386	7.5%	22.8%	.098	.260	.206	.273	.304	.261
Bryan Anderson	321	6.9%	26.5%	.119	.276	.215	.275	.334	.273
Andrew Brown	471	7.6%	27.4%	.162	.273	.219	.283	.381	.293
Colin Walsh	410	9.5%	24.6%	.088	.272	.209	.289	.297	.266
Chad Pinder	375	3.7%	26.1%	.108	.280	.216	.257	.324	.254
Anthony Aliotti	523	9.6%	33.7%	.100	.312	.208	.287	.308	.269

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Josh Reddick	506	4.8	107	9	2.4	Robin Jennings
Marcus Semien	625	4.4	98	-7	2.3	Dick Schofield
Brett Lawrie	450	4.5	99	4	2.2	Arquimedez Pozo
Derek Norris	420	4.4	100	-3	2.2	George Williams
Coco Crisp	505	4.9	102	-5	1.8	Kenny Lofton
John Jaso	316	5.1	112	-6	1.6	Johnny Roseboro
Stephen Vogt	448	4.2	93	-4	1.6	Benito Santiago
Craig Gentry	286	4.1	82	9	1.6	Greg Tubbs
Jed Lowrie	526	4.3	95	-5	1.5	Brook Jacoby
Josh Phegley	484	3.4	76	3	1.5	Mike Ryan
Billy Butler	641	5.1	109	0	1.4	Ollie Brown
Daniel Robertson	602	3.5	81	-3	1.1	Glenn Hubbard
Billy Burns	519	3.7	69	3	1.0	Joey Gathright
Sam Fuld	287	3.7	80	1	0.7	Eddie Milner
Eric Sogard	362	3.5	77	1	0.5	Rusty Hamric
Daric Barton	470	3.9	90	3	0.5	Mike Twardoski
Adam Dunn	499	4.1	97	0	0.5	Lee Stevens
Geovany Soto	235	3.2	76	-1	0.5	Chad Moeller
Andy Parrino	471	2.9	64	3	0.4	Keith Johns
Mark Canha	522	3.9	89	0	0.4	Jeremy Slayden
Ike Davis	441	4.3	102	-1	0.4	Pat Dodson
Conner Crumbliss	533	3.5	79	-5	0.4	Tony Schrager
Jose Martinez	487	3.4	76	1	0.3	Pete Rose Jr.
Luis Martinez	263	2.8	64	1	0.3	Mike DiFelice
Luke Montz	214	3.3	77	-2	0.3	Steve Yeager
Kyle Blanks	246	4.5	102	-1	0.3	Josh Phelps
Rangel Ravelo	525	4.3	94	0	0.2	Juan Tejeda
Shane Peterson	536	3.8	83	-8	0.2	Ryan Spilborghs
Carson Blair	257	2.7	63	0	0.2	Steve Lomasney
Hiroyuki Nakajima	431	3.2	72	0	0.0	Marty Perez
Alden Carrithers	376	3.3	71	-2	0.0	Dave Rohde
Nate Freiman	454	4.1	94	-1	0.0	Nate Gold
Renato Nunez	590	3.2	73	-3	0.0	Aaron Herr
Matt Olson	620	3.7	87	1	0.0	Kevin Burns
Nick Punto	239	2.8	65	0	-0.1	Craig Counsell
Jonny Gomes	322	4.1	94	-5	-0.1	Benny Agbayani
Tyler Ladendorf	386	2.9	63	-2	-0.1	Keith Johns
Bryan Anderson	321	3.1	71	-7	-0.1	Chad Moeller
Andrew Brown	471	3.7	86	-3	-0.2	John-Ford Griffin
Colin Walsh	410	3.0	66	-3	-0.4	Nate Frese
Chad Pinder	375	2.6	63	-2	-0.7	Glenn Williams
Anthony Aliotti	523	3.0	69	0	-1.3	Glenn Carpenter

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	K	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Sonny Gray	R	25	33	32	198.0	169	70	15	179	79	74
Scott Kazmir	L	31	24	24	134.3	116	39	14	126	59	55
Jarrod Parker	R	26	23	23	142.0	102	49	15	138	67	63
Sean Doolittle	L	28	63	0	64.7	81	14	5	48	18	17
Drew Pomeranz	L	26	27	21	117.3	106	54	15	107	57	53
A.J. Griffin	R	27	23	23	134.3	104	37	21	131	67	63
Jesse Chavez	R	31	33	15	116.7	99	39	14	115	57	53
Kendall Graveman	R	24	25	21	118.0	64	34	12	124	60	56
Ryan Cook	R	28	65	0	61.0	64	25	5	49	22	21
Sean Nolin	L	25	21	20	98.3	75	38	11	97	50	47
Fernando Abad	L	29	63	0	54.0	47	15	5	48	20	19
Dan Otero	R	30	63	0	74.0	40	14	5	75	30	28
Evan Scribner	R	29	52	0	62.3	58	16	7	57	27	25
Joe Blanton	R	34	15	12	81.7	63	18	13	88	45	42
Eric O’Flaherty	L	30	34	0	30.7	24	9	3	29	13	12
Raul Alcantara	R	22	20	20	100.7	49	26	14	112	57	53
Fernando Rodriguez	R	31	45	0	49.3	45	21	5	45	22	21
Rudy Owens	L	27	19	17	104.0	61	33	13	112	59	55
Arnold Leon	R	26	25	25	136.3	81	42	18	150	78	73
Brad Mills	L	30	21	18	102.0	71	39	14	108	59	55
Taylor Thompson	R	28	42	0	59.3	47	28	5	57	29	27
Pat Venditte	B	30	25	1	43.7	35	17	5	42	22	21
Jeff Urlaub	L	28	32	0	41.0	28	14	5	42	21	20
Zachary Neal	R	26	27	23	139.3	71	34	22	158	83	78
Ryan Verdugo	L	28	21	15	81.7	59	44	12	84	50	47
Chris Bassitt	R	26	24	16	95.0	64	59	12	99	59	55
Kevin Whelan	R	31	39	0	39.0	39	27	6	36	24	22
Philip Humber	R	32	35	9	83.0	59	33	12	88	50	47
Matt Buschmann	R	31	24	23	125.7	80	66	19	138	82	77
Tim Alderson	R	26	36	6	87.3	58	33	16	97	57	53

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Sonny Gray	198.0	843	20.0%	8.3%	.282	3.36	3.48	88	91
Scott Kazmir	134.3	568	20.4%	6.9%	.283	3.68	3.60	97	94
Jarrod Parker	142.0	613	16.6%	8.0%	.278	3.99	4.07	105	107
Sean Doolittle	64.7	256	31.6%	5.5%	.277	2.37	2.20	62	58
Drew Pomeranz	117.3	513	20.7%	10.5%	.276	4.07	4.39	107	115
A.J. Griffin	134.3	571	18.2%	6.5%	.272	4.22	4.43	111	116
Jesse Chavez	116.7	504	19.6%	7.7%	.292	4.09	4.00	107	105
Kendall Graveman	118.0	512	12.5%	6.6%	.283	4.27	4.31	112	113
Ryan Cook	61.0	257	24.9%	9.7%	.275	3.10	3.30	81	87
Sean Nolin	98.3	430	17.4%	8.8%	.286	4.30	4.30	113	113
Fernando Abad	54.0	225	20.9%	6.7%	.277	3.17	3.41	83	89
Dan Otero	74.0	311	12.9%	4.5%	.281	3.41	3.38	89	89
Evan Scribner	62.3	260	22.3%	6.2%	.284	3.61	3.57	95	94
Joe Blanton	81.7	351	17.9%	5.1%	.294	4.63	4.28	121	112
Eric O’Flaherty	30.7	130	18.4%	6.9%	.279	3.52	3.64	92	96
Raul Alcantara	100.7	440	11.1%	5.9%	.284	4.74	4.84	124	127
Fernando Rodriguez	49.3	214	21.0%	9.8%	.282	3.83	3.70	100	97
Rudy Owens	104.0	457	13.3%	7.2%	.288	4.76	4.60	125	121
Arnold Leon	136.3	601	13.5%	7.0%	.291	4.82	4.66	126	122
Brad Mills	102.0	453	15.7%	8.6%	.291	4.85	4.77	127	125
Taylor Thompson	59.3	263	17.9%	10.7%	.291	4.10	4.18	108	110
Pat Venditte	43.7	190	18.4%	8.9%	.282	4.33	4.18	114	110
Jeff Urlaub	41.0	179	15.6%	7.8%	.285	4.39	4.30	115	113
Zachary Neal	139.3	610	11.6%	5.6%	.287	5.04	4.99	132	131
Ryan Verdugo	81.7	373	15.8%	11.8%	.284	5.18	5.32	136	140
Chris Bassitt	95.0	443	14.4%	13.3%	.289	5.21	5.40	137	142
Kevin Whelan	39.0	180	21.7%	15.0%	.286	5.08	5.36	133	141
Philip Humber	83.0	370	15.9%	8.9%	.289	5.10	4.74	134	124
Matt Buschmann	125.7	581	13.8%	11.4%	.292	5.51	5.51	145	145
Tim Alderson	87.3	392	14.8%	8.4%	.289	5.46	5.31	143	139

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Sonny Gray	198.0	7.68	3.18	0.68	113	3.9	Jason Jennings
Scott Kazmir	134.3	7.77	2.61	0.94	103	2.1	Jon Matlack
Jarrod Parker	142.0	6.46	3.11	0.95	96	1.6	Mike Thurman
Sean Doolittle	64.7	11.27	1.95	0.70	161	1.4	Dan Plesac
Drew Pomeranz	117.3	8.13	4.14	1.15	94	1.2	David West
A.J. Griffin	134.3	6.97	2.48	1.41	90	1.1	Kevin McGehee
Jesse Chavez	116.7	7.63	3.01	1.08	93	1.0	Victor Santos
Kendall Graveman	118.0	4.88	2.59	0.92	89	0.9	Ismael Ramirez
Ryan Cook	61.0	9.44	3.69	0.74	123	0.8	Bryce Florie
Sean Nolin	98.3	6.87	3.48	1.01	89	0.7	John Barfield
Fernando Abad	54.0	7.83	2.50	0.83	120	0.6	Ed Olwine
Dan Otero	74.0	4.86	1.70	0.61	112	0.6	Ron Taylor
Evan Scribner	62.3	8.38	2.31	1.01	106	0.4	Pete Ladd
Joe Blanton	81.7	6.94	1.98	1.43	82	0.2	Kevin Jarvis
Eric O’Flaherty	30.7	7.04	2.64	0.88	108	0.2	Brian Shouse
Raul Alcantara	100.7	4.38	2.32	1.25	80	0.2	Ben Callahan
Fernando Rodriguez	49.3	8.22	3.83	0.91	100	0.1	Gregg Olson
Rudy Owens	104.0	5.28	2.86	1.13	80	0.1	Omar Daal
Arnold Leon	136.3	5.35	2.77	1.19	79	0.1	Cameron Reimers
Brad Mills	102.0	6.26	3.44	1.24	79	0.0	Rick Krivda
Taylor Thompson	59.3	7.13	4.25	0.76	93	0.0	William Vaughan
Pat Venditte	43.7	7.21	3.50	1.03	88	-0.1	Bill Pulsipher
Jeff Urlaub	41.0	6.15	3.07	1.10	87	-0.2	Allen McDill
Zachary Neal	139.3	4.59	2.20	1.42	76	-0.3	Daniel Griffin
Ryan Verdugo	81.7	6.50	4.85	1.32	74	-0.4	Mike Spiegel
Chris Bassitt	95.0	6.06	5.59	1.14	73	-0.5	Steve Sparks
Kevin Whelan	39.0	9.00	6.23	1.38	75	-0.5	Ryan Bukvich
Philip Humber	83.0	6.40	3.58	1.30	75	-0.5	Ken Ray
Matt Buschmann	125.7	5.73	4.73	1.36	69	-1.1	Ryan Jensen
Tim Alderson	87.3	5.98	3.40	1.65	70	-1.1	Ken Ryan

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.