2015 ZiPS Projections – Oakland Athletics

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Oakland Athletics. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Colorado / Los Angeles AL / Miami / Milwaukee / Tampa Bay.

Batters
Oakland catchers combined for the fourth-highest offensive and absolute lowest defensive run totals in the majors last year. In part, the poor defensive record was a result of both John Jaso and Derek Norris making starts at DH (and thereby receiving the attendant negative positional adjustment). In part, it’s because Jaso and Norris aren’t particularly excellent defensive catchers. For ZiPS, at least, the strengths compensate for the weaknesses sufficiently to make catcher the club’s likely most productive position.

Elsewhere, one finds more optimism regarding Marcus Semien’s 2015 season. Not regarding his shortstop defense, of course. ZiPS projects him to concede seven runs there in roughly a full season (which is almost precisely Steamer’s estimate, as well). However, both systems have Semien producing a roughly league-average batting line with roughly league-average (position agnostic) defense. Those estimates conspire to produce a nearly league-average projected WAR.

Pitchers
Jeff Samardzija and Jon Lester produced the fourth- and fifth-highest WAR totals, respectively, among all Oakland pitchers in 2014. Not surprising, that, on account of how they’re talented pitchers. Perhaps more surprising, however, when one considers that neither played even half a season with the club. Their departures, along with Jason Hammel’s, create a lack of serviceable depth within the rotation. Not included on the depth-chart image below but likely to contribute in 2015 are A.J. Griffin and Jarrod Parker. Neither is elite per ZiPS’ computer math, but both would appear to constitute improvements over some of the pieces currently expected to start.

One of those top-five pitchers for the A’s in 2014 — in addition to Samardzija and Lester, that is — was left-hander Sean Doolittle, who actually produced the fifth-best WAR among all major-league relievers. ZiPS anticipates Doolittle more or less repeating that feat: he’s projected to record the fourth-highest WAR among all Oakland pitchers in 2015.

Bench/Prospects
Not included within the depth chart below, but likely relevant to the team’s success, is Stephen Vogt. He’s capable of playing catcher, first base, and either corner-outfield spot — and will probably find time in each capacity, even if he’s never considered a “starter,” per se. Outfielder Billy Burns does a lot of what Sam Fuld and Craig Gentry do. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him earn more than the six plate appearances he received in 2014. Otherwise, the top prospect by projected WAR for 2015 is shortstop Daniel Robertson. A well-rounded offensive player with an above-average defensive profile, too, Robertson nevertheless has made zero appearances above High-A, suggesting his move to the majors is something less than imminent.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the A’s, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

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Batters, Rates and Averages

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Batters, Assorted Other

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Pitchers, Counting Stats

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Pitchers, Rates and Averages

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Pitchers, Assorted Other

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.