Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 12/15/14

Dan Szymborski: Yup, it’s that time again.

Dan Szymborski: Dan Szymborski FanGraphs chat! Dan Szymborski FanGraphs chat! Where ya at? Where ya at? There ya go! There ya go!

Dan Szymborski: No presidents today, so we’ll get right back into baseball business.

Dan Szymborski: With the usual off-topic questions scattered becuase I like nonsense

Comment From Whats on Second?
Who has the better 2015–Kipnis or Wong?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’ll be fairly close in 2015.

Dan Szymborski: Well, here’s one thing – the Giants ZiPS will now be the first team to go *next* week as a twitter reader solved a puzzle.

Dan Szymborski: However, one more team can be named, by the person who explains the very specific distribution of images.

Dan Szymborski: (I’ll leave it open until Wednesday for someone to figure out)

:

Comment From John
Will the comments Pirates’ president Frank Coonelly made about the Stanton contract impact his teams’ dealings with other franchises? Or is it much ado about nothing?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it’ll have any effect. Words don’t really mean anything – teams dealing are based on the facts on the ground and the system in place, none of which are changing.

Comment From mtsw
Does ZiPS account for (the admittedly rare) pitchers who seem to consistently outperform their peripheral stats like Miguel Gonzalez or Mark Buehrle?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has a built-in assumption that the longer a player outperforms BABIP expectations, the more of an ability it is.

Dan Szymborski: It appears to be a player characteristic, not something that really peaks and declines.

Dan Szymborski: If ZiPS projected Tom Glavine in 2015, the projection would only moved 12% of the way from his historical advantage over team to his new team.

Comment From jocephus
if you do a vice president brawl, will cheney be able to use torture?

Dan Szymborski: If he can do it himself, it would be allowed into the brawllege ring.

Dan Szymborski: But no implements.

Comment From Grant
After all these years of projecting baseball, do you ever worry that baseball will project YOU?

Dan Szymborski: I think my life insurance, health insurance, and car insurance already do that.

Comment From exxrox
Thoughts on Chase Headley’s reported money and Arod’s role as a DH/bench buddy?

Dan Szymborski: It’s a good deal.

Comment From Bret
I’m reading a lot of “AL East is such a weak division now!” stuff and I don’t really see it. They still look like the top division on paper to me. What say you?

Dan Szymborski: Meh, I don’t think it’s the strongest division. I think the AL West is stronge still.

Comment From 804NatsFan
Why weren’t the Nats in on Chase Headley? Cost?

Dan Szymborski: Not sure really – I’m sure we’ll get some info in next few days

Comment From Joe
Cozart for Duda? Does it work, who loses?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it really has a point for either team.

Dan Szymborski: In fact, I think it’s counterproductive for both teams.

Comment From Phillies113
Will you be buying a copy of “When the Sparrow Sings”? It’s really good!

Dan Szymborski: I probably will but I’m so behind in my reading.l

Comment From Bret
Jays need a 2B, Diamondbacks need a catcher. Does Cliff Pennington for Dioner Navarro (one year of control left for both) work?

Dan Szymborski: Not crazy, though I’d like the Jays to be more ambitious.

Comment From THE average sports fan
Do you think it is morel likely the Reds resign Cueto or that they end up dealing him at 7/31 deadline?

Dan Szymborski: I think they deal him.

Comment From Tristam
HI Dan, realistically how do you think the Nats will handle Zimmermann,Fister, Clippard, Desmond this offseason. My head is spinning with all of these trade rumors, extension talks, etc.

Dan Szymborski: A lot depends on how their extension talks go.

Comment From Optimetstic
Are Noah Syndergaard, Dillon Gee, Brandon Nimmo, and Matt Reynolds enough to land Tulo for the Mets?

Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to tell – the Monforts are kinda arbitrary.

Comment From John
Headley 4 – 52. Good buy? How does that make the Sox Panda deal look now?

Dan Szymborski: Yes. Worse.

Comment From Seattle Slough
Should discount rates for long term contracts and trades be set on a curve rather than just a flat rate per year? The utility of players differ for teams and it doesn’t make sense to accept a flat $10M valuation on a compensation pick if a team is in a win now mode versus rebuilding.

Dan Szymborski: The thing is, players of value are essentially liquid assets.

Comment From mtsw
Which scenario is more likely: The Orioles sign no major free agent (no one over $5M AAV or not on a one year, Cruz-like deal) or Orioles sign Scherzer?

Dan Szymborski: Former

Comment From Little to No Track Record
Which guy’s ceiling is highest for 2015: Smyly, Carrasco, or Gausman?

Dan Szymborski: Gausman

Comment From Natt
With daily fantasy sports gaining in popularity, do you know of a reasonable source for daily stats predictions?

Dan Szymborski: I do not. It may be out there, but I don’t know it.

Comment From Cashmere Taco
In lieu of a brawl, I ask you then which President would truly win a footrace between all of them

Dan Szymborski: At peak? I think Ford

Comment From Oren
Does ZIPS look at players coming over from Asia? Curious what ZIPS thinks about Jung-Ho Kang and Takashi Toritani, two infielders who could be on their way to the MLB. (I’d be happy to have your personal thoughts on how their numbers would translate too!)

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS does, but I don’t do them until they sign typically.

Comment From brad
people seemed to react wildly to the dodgers getting heaney as a steal, only to freak out when he got immediately flipped to the angels for kendrick – isn’t it more rational to look at this as an indication that Heaney has less trade value than most people assume?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s fair to freak out on trade 1, which was terrible, but not so much trade 2

Dan Szymborski: A year of Kendrick at his salary and a possible draft pick are useful

Comment From Jordan
Who is the Braves ace next year? Teheran, Wood, or

Dan Szymborski: The Ayatollah

Comment From exxrox
Should the Jays pursue Korean infielder Kang? His power numbers are ridiculous for a SS, and there’s talk he should be moved to 2B, which is where they would put him anyway. Is it worth $35 million?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s a risk worth taking, giving the suckitude of 2nd.

Comment From Kritzkrieg
I always appreciated your brief nerdy digressions, and remember saying that you played Team Fortress 2 more than any other FPS. I’ve just discovered this game. What are your favorite classes?

Dan Szymborski: Pyro, sniper, demo.

Dan Szymborski: Sniper mostly in maps where the huntsman makes sense.

Dan Szymborski: My video-game hand-eye coordination isn’t where it was 20 years ago, so the sniper rifle isn’t as effective for me.

Comment From Concerned
Dan, I’m in a SIMS league and hold Pedro Alvarez on my roster. Will he get a rating for 1B and will he be serviceable there?

Dan Szymborski: Should, probably.

Comment From David
At this point the best plan is to sign Lowrie for the Nats 2nd base right?

Dan Szymborski: Either him or Cabrera are obth decent options

Comment From mtsw
Followup: approximately how long does a pitcher have to outperform his peripherals before ZiPS starts considering it a skill? Is it only based on how long they’ve overperformed or does it look at stuff like GB% too?

Dan Szymborski: It’s not like a light switch – it’s a model that implements it gradually.

Dan Szymborski: Hit ball stats are in there where they exist.

Comment From Pat
With Kemp gone, do you think Pederson gets 550 PA? Do you think 20/20 .240 is an unreasonable expectation if he achieves that kind of playing time?

Dan Szymborski: Working from memory, I think that’s almost exactly his ZiPS.

Comment From Eric
With the Yankees signing of Headley it looks like Refsnyder may head to AAA in 2015. Does ZiPs see him as a good option for the big club this season?

Dan Szymborski: Below-average but serviceable.

Comment From mtsw
Have people forgotten about the Orioles because of their quiet offseason? Basically bringing back the same team that won 96 games last year, only losing Cruz (admittedly a big loss) and Markakis (probably not that good) but also getting back Wieters and a full season of Machado. Or are people rightly assuming that the stuff that made the 2014 Orioles good is unlikely to be repeatable?

Dan Szymborski: I still think they’ll do stuff in the end.

Dan Szymborski: They were going to have to replace a lot of Cruz’s performance anyway, even if they kept him.

Comment From Cashmere Taco
Mets hang up on that Cozart for Duda deal, didn’t spend the past few years figuring out 1B to finally get something productive to trade for the worst hitter on the Reds

Dan Szymborski: And makes no sense in Cincy either. he can’t play outfield and Votto isn’t going anywhere.

Comment From Jordan
Does Zips account for ranges of outcomes? It seems certain players have a greater range of outcomes that they could meet.

Dan Szymborski: Yes – the quoted projection is only the middle ground.

Comment From Joe
The Reds need LF, Mets need SS? WAR is very close, contracts, & age are identical

Dan Szymborski: Duda’s not a leftfielder. Cozart’s not an upgrade on anyoen they have at SS.

Dan Szymborski: Duda’s Cuddyer/Kemp lousy in the outfield.

Dan Szymborski: Lucas Duda can be your first baseman. If Lucas Duda is your leftfielder or rightfielder, one of the needs your team needs to address is in leftfield or rightfield.

Comment From Richard
What are your thoughts on Joc Pederson for this year? Nothing really left to prove in AAA. Does he get a shot at every-day AB’s in that Dodgers OF?

Dan Szymborski: I believe so.

Comment From John
Jays and Giants need a 2b. What would a return for Murphy look like? Low level prospect? controllable bull-pen piece? bench bat?

Dan Szymborski: I think the need is enough to give up a second-tier contract.

Comment From The Oberamtmann
Could any president out-asshole Jackson? I mean, like, how any pitcher could outpitch Koufax on a good day. Or is Jackson just too much an asshole?

Dan Szymborski: No.

Comment From War2d2
Re: The Presidential Footrace: Peak Ford would probably win (being an elite college athlete helps), but in-office W almost broke his Secret Service detail by outrunning all of them when jogging. Don’t know how much jogging Ford was doing in-office.

Dan Szymborski: But he was in his 60s at the time!

Comment From Yehuda
Would RBI/PA be a useful stat by itself? I am not a Sabermetric savvy person?

Dan Szymborski: Not really. It’s essentially a very naive rate-stat for RBI, but RBI opportunity is best measured by runners available, not PA, and RBI just isn’t htat useful

Comment From 804NatsFan
Does ZiPS project a distribution of performance or “merely” a central measure (presumably mean)?

Dan Szymborski: Distro – I usually release a whole slate of ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) in the final spreadsheet

Comment From jocephus
power glove, loins, will smith, van, plane, dude, bomb, bell, 8,9,10 ham. i solved it bro, cardinals next.

Dan Szymborski: That’s not the solution.

Comment From mtsw
How angry should Dan Duquette be about Peter Angelos publicly declaring that they wouldn’t allow him to interview for the Blue Jays CEO job?

Dan Szymborski: I’d be annoyed. But the truth of the matter is that even if Angelos is a crappy owner — which he is — Duquette *is* under contract.

Comment From Marshawn Lynch
do you ever find that Saber has made you pessimistic about players? to me now it seems like im only ever waiting for regression and seeing fluke years. I dont know just sometimes i feel that way. anyways NO JUICE.

Dan Szymborski: No, my personality.

Comment From John
how do you know whether or not you performed well on a phone interview?

Dan Szymborski: Beats me, I’ve never technically been on a job interview in my life.

Comment From Chris
Is ZiPs like a computer program or speadsheet? Do you input a player’s stats and get an output projection?

Dan Szymborski: Very complex spreadsheet. I’ve got enough plugins and stuff into Excel that I don’t need to use statistica for the basics.

Comment From Guest
Is Headley’s deal still a bargain?

Dan Szymborski: Yes, his value hasn’t changed significantly. It’s only been an hours or so.

Comment From STiVo
If I am correct in asserting that ZiPS runs many thousands of simulations for each player and the WAR projection is the mean projection… Then what is a typical 100% ZiPS WAR for an average player? (And do you ever publish a curve showing what the 0-100% curve looks like for particular players?)

Dan Szymborski: Weighted median – it takes into account central tendency.

Dan Szymborski: Typical? I relaly haven’t tallied it for everyone.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t actually have *WAR* in the percentiles.

Dan Szymborski: But just to use an averageish player as an example.

Dan Szymborski: Reddick has a 245/308/433, 107 OPS+ projection. But a 5% projected chance of an OPS+ of 130. A 30% chance of slugging over .450. A 2.5×10^12 chance of catching Bonds in yearly home run record.

Comment From 804NatsFan
Quoted ZiPS projection as “middle ground” implies a median I assume. Any chance at getting -1SD and +1SD as well? (Assuming projection not symmetrical)

Dan Szymborski: Projection is not symmetrical. It’s a non-parametric model.

Comment From The Oberamtmann
Ford kept himself in shape running away from Nixon’s legacy.

Comment From Richard
Best Braves prospect worth watching (Not in the Top 2-3)?

Dan Szymborski: Winkler, taken in the rule 5 draft, could be an amazing bargain when/if he’s healthy.

Comment From John
Given the contract that Tomas actually signed (essentially 4 – 36 because he opts out unless he is awful) + a compensation pick, how awful are some of the cuddyer/butler contracts looking right now?

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t like Cuddyer contract anyway.

Comment From Seattle Slough
Is performance volatility built into the team projected wins modeling in any way?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Comment From mtsw
Which is more likely: players who are assholes are undervalued (because teams pay a premium over their performance to not have to put up with them) or overvalued (because we can’t quantify their negative impact on team morale)?

Dan Szymborski: Neither. People are very complex and I dont’ think stuff like that is predictive.

Comment From Paul
Is Dustbowl still the best map in Tf2?

Dan Szymborski: No. The best map is koth_wubwubwub

Dan Szymborski: https://www.youtube.com/wat…

Comment From Paul
How does an Upton-Maybin-Kemp defensive outfield sound to you? Yeah me too…

Dan Szymborski: I think you can imagine.

Comment From mtsw
Good gift for a family member who used to be a big baseball fan but stopped following the league in the last 10 years? (With the goal of steering them into following it again)

Dan Szymborski: Eh, if they’re not really interested and you are, a gift with the goal of getting them to follow baseball more doesn’t seem like the best idea

Dan Szymborski: Don’t use their gift for that! Try to convince them in other ways

Comment From Dan as well
The Tigers are done with big moves, right? AKA Max?

Dan Szymborski: If they are, they’re stupid.

Comment From Pistol
Headley dopey signing for Bankees. Prado’s best position is 3B. They should have gone committee at 2B or found young option there.

Dan Szymborski: Headley is far better than the diff between 3B/2B for Prado and any kind of Pirela/Refsnyder combo

Dan Szymborski: The Yankees are a team geared to winning now rather than later and have many resources – cobbling together options to save a few bucks is typically a bad idea until you have no other choice

Comment From Roman
Is one win above replacement always equal to exactly 10 runs above replacement, or is there some variance?

Dan Szymborski: It’s actually between 9 and 10 now as offense has declined.

Comment From GBS
All I know is that “William VanLandingham” factors into the solution somehow…

Dan Szymborski: That was solved already, but not the significance of the ordering of the images

Comment From Pistol
Trumbo remaining in AZ seems ridiculous now, no? Trumbo for Navarro+arm swap makes sense for both sides. If the Snakes clear a little more salary, you think they could be stealth player for Scherzer? Could make everything they’ve done this winter make sense…

Dan Szymborski: Trump would be much better in the AL.

Comment From dbet
Hi Dan! Have you seen the priest control deck? Seems like a ton of fun, right up your alley for hijinks. Also, how the hell did Headley go for so cheap when Pablo just got his paycheck?

Dan Szymborski: Voljin is terrific and is part of my priest control deck. So are shrinkmeisters – with a shrinkmeister, you can steal cairne or ysera.

Dan Szymborski: And the handlock matchup is improved, now that you have voljin/smite.

Comment From John
As a mets fan, seeing every other team “on the bubble” making moves to actually improve their roster is incredibly frustrating. We kept hearing 2014 then 2015. Now the Cubs and Marlins have both passed the Mets in competitive ability, and the Mets are still below par for the other national league teams. Then, we get scott rice and john mayberry jr to make us feel better. Seriously, did this rebuild go awful? Did the FO overestimate the necessity of pitching by building a system built solely on it? When teams can turn guys like Arrieta into studs, should the rebuild have been heavier on the bats? Should I quit watching baseball?

Dan Szymborski: I think the Mets have worse ownership when it comes to on-field play (Loria’s horrific otherwise of course)

Dan Szymborski: And truth be told, I dont’ think the Marlins really look all that much better than with what they had

Comment From Mike, of Mike and the Mechanics Fame
Was there a particular adjustment that pitchers made against Brett Lawrie after he set the world on fire in 2012 (or was that ’11?)… or is regression to the mean the much better explanation?

Dan Szymborski: It’s essentially impossible to say given all the injuries.

Comment From 804NatsFan
Thanks for the ZiPS statistical detail interlude. If you haven’t exceeded the quota for that type of question… Ever considered “releasing” a bit more of each player’s distribution like… “1/6th of the time OPS+ is predicted to be better than A, 1/6th of the time OPS+ is predicted to be worse than B”?

Dan Szymborski: As I said, I release the ODDIBE stuff.

Comment From nolan
yanks won 84 games last year while many of their “stars” underperformed. They’ve improved offensively and defensively (on paper) at 2b, 3b, SS. If they get healthy years from Tex and Beltran arent they a dramatically improved team?

Dan Szymborski: Well, if they get lucky, they’re obviously a better team. But the injuries and aging are kind of baked-into the roster.

Comment From Pistol
Meanwhile Upton to Pads is ridiculous. Pads have no chance at contending next yr. What the heck is Preller doing??

Dan Szymborski: I think blood tests would tell us for sure.

Comment From mtsw
Should game developers enforce a map rotation on multiplayer games? Seems like in absence of forced rotation, one map tends to end up dominating play (and it’s not always the best map). Dustbowl in TF2 or Facing Worlds in Unreal Tournament or de_dust2 in Counterstrike all dominated their respective games in a way that probably wasn’t fun for the majority of players.

Dan Szymborski: TF2 servers aren’t really centralized – these kinds of requirements would be counterproductive.

Dan Szymborski: On the server I play on (at fith.co), we don’t actually play dustbowl all that often.

Dan Szymborski: Badwater and BeerBowl are probably the two played most.

Comment From Reds Q
Last year, I wondered why, of Cueto/Latos/Leake/Bailey, the Reds chose Bailey to extend with big bucks. Now, it seems like my concerns were well-founded. Shouldn’t they have tried to extend someone better (Cueto or Leake)?

Dan Szymborski: I’d have extended Cueto before Bailey, but Baily before Leake.

Comment From STiVo
I once heard a rumor that PECOTA’s initial project for Wieters (which lead to the Matt Wieters Facts) included some kind of corrupted data? Do you know if this is true?

Dan Szymborski: Look up Wieters/Wyers for the whole story

Comment From dbet
My local team is now the High-A affiliate of the Mariners, any cool players to watch?

Dan Szymborski: Let’s see, I would expect Edwin Diaz to be there

Dan Szymborski: Austin Wilson,

Dan Szymborski: Probably not Alex Jackson or Gareth Morgan yet

Comment From mtsw
Would TF2 be a better game if the classes were more balanced? It seems like in “competitive” TF2 only scout, soldier, demoman and medic are viable classes. Or is it not really the kind of game where that stuff is worth worrying about?

Dan Szymborski: Highlander is the way to go.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t care for 5×5 – the whole purpose of the game is a team of 9, I feel.

Dan Szymborski: in competitive at least.

Comment From STiVo
Does ZiPS know that Dee Gordon might hit in front of Stanton (for purposes of Stanton’s projection)?

Dan Szymborski: Not specifically.

Dan Szymborski: Though place in the lineup is far more crucial than anything.

Comment From mtsw
When you say team of 9 is ideal for competitive TF2 do you mean a team composed of one of each class?

Dan Szymborski: Yes. I think Highlander most captures the spirit of TF2.

Comment From Chris
What does ZiPS think of a 40 year old A-Rod DH?

Dan Szymborski: Blecch.

Comment From jono
Just catching up and offering this as answere to an earlier question. Here’s a good website for day by day pitcher-batter data and weather to be expected that day in the park. Great site for daily fantasy: http://dailybaseballdata.co…

Comment From jocephus
my local team is the wichita wingnuts…who should i watch

Dan Szymborski: That’s an indy team, so you can’t really predict it the same.

Dan Szymborski: I assume that as is typical, it will feature a lot of AA/AAAish names people might sorta remember from 5 years ago

Dan Szymborski: I think they had Brent Clevlen last year.

Comment From John
if a player has a 28% k rate in the minors, but a 15% bb rate, can that player be useful? IE, is it harder to learn patience and pitch recognition or is it harder to learn to swing less?

Dan Szymborski: They *can* be useful, but it always depends.

Comment From Rizzoli
Fans should probably tack this up in their brainpieces (from Cameron): “You absolutely do not want to build a 2015 forecast by starting with a team’s 2014 record and adjusting up or down to account for offseason transactions. 2014 performances are not static, and they do not carry over from one year to the next, even if the names of the players remain the same. And even if the individual performances were identical, the effects of sequencing are so large as to cause significant swings in win-loss totals.”

Comment From mtsw
Do we have any data on whether certain pitchers pitch especially better in cold vs warm weather? Are there pitching equivalents of Peyton Manning (famously bad in cold/windy weather?)

Dan Szymborski: We could probably do it, but I haven’t really looked at it

Comment From jocephus
yeah, when “JRod” signed with the wingnuts, it was a big deal for about a week

Dan Szymborski: JRod? John Rodriguez?

Dan Szymborski: He must be a million years old now

Dan Szymborski: Yup, just checked. John Rodriguez.

Dan Szymborski: Shoot, I shouldn’t make jokes about his age – he’s almost exactly 6 months older than me.

Comment From Will
Where do you think the White Sox are and what they need to address? Who should they be targeting either via trade or FA?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure who they’re actually going – they’ve surprised me a lot this ofseason

Dan Szymborski: They *should* sign Scherzer. They can add him and still be under $130 million when all is said and done.

Dan Szymborski: Don’t push most of your chips.

Comment From mtsw
Why is there seemingly more interest in KBO position players when the consensus is that the NPB is the better international league?

Dan Szymborski: The belief is that the posting deals are better

Dan Szymborski: On that note, I have to shuffle off for this week as I have a busy schedule today!

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for joining me everyone. As the usual reminder, you can find my work at ESPN.com. Chats and projections here at FanGraphs and DSzymborski on Twitter (and Steam!)