2015 ZiPS Projections – Philadelphia Phillies

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Philadelphia Phillies. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Oakland / Pittsburgh / San Diego / San Francisco / St. Louis / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Texas / Washington.

Batters
Were one to construct a Venn diagram depicting (in one set) those individuals who derive pleasure from baseball analytics and (in another set) those who employ the phrase “hot mess” with some frequency, one would likely find that the circles occupied by those sets don’t overlap. Largely, that, because the former demographic is composed mostly of 18- to 34-year-old males; the latter, Southern women who’ve been dead for half a century.

Were they to overlap, however, every one of those individuals who occupied both sets would feel compelled to describe the present iteration of the Phillies as a “hot mess” — for reasons that are illustrated by the ZiPS projections below. There are multiple examples of why, although the presence of Ryan Howard remains the most illustrative: with no fewer than two years and $60 million remaining on his contract, the 35-year-old Howard is projected to record a -0.1 WAR in 449 plate appearances.

Pitchers
Philadelphia does continue to employ one of the league’s better pitchers in left-hander Cole Hamels, whose 2014 season represented the eighth consecutive one in which he produced 3.5 wins or more. ZiPS calls for a ninth consecutive one of those in 2015. The historically even more proficient Cliff Lee receives an uncharacteristically muted projection (138.2 IP, 2.4 WAR) relative to his track record. Notably, however, Steamer forecasts a similarly pedestrian line (173.0 IP, 2.6 WAR). The author can’t speak to the precise causes for this. That said, Lee is a 36-year-old pitcher who, after six consecutive 200-innings seasons, recorded only 81.1 of those in 2014. That’s likely not a positive indicator.

With regard to the bullpen, there’s more room for optimism than elsewhere on the club. Jake Diekman and Ken Giles sit at 97 mph from the left and right side, respectively. They’re both projected to produce strikeout rates solidly above 25%. Also expected to do that is Rule 5 pick Andrew Oliver. The left-hander sat at 94 mph as a starter and his strikeout rates increased this past season working in relief for Pittsburgh’s Triple-A club.

Bench/Prospects
Three of the Phillies’ top seven batter projections belong to players who retain rookie eligibility entering the 2015 season. Shortstop J.P. Crawford (537 PA, 1.4 WAR), other Rule 5 selection Odubel Herrera (564 PA, 1.3 WAR), and corner infielder Maikel Franco (634 PA, 1.8 WAR) all profile as competent major-league bench pieces already. Right-hander Ben Lively (112.1 IP, 0.9 WAR), who was acquired from Cincinnati for Marlon Byrd, receives the third-best wins projections among Phillies pitchers overall.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Phils, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

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Batters, Rates and Averages

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Batters, Assorted Other

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Pitchers, Counting Stats

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Pitchers, Rates and Averages

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Pitchers, Assorted Other

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.