2015 ZiPS Projections – Philadelphia Phillies by Carson Cistulli February 10, 2015 After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Philadelphia Phillies. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski. Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Oakland / Pittsburgh / San Diego / San Francisco / St. Louis / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Texas / Washington. Batters Were one to construct a Venn diagram depicting (in one set) those individuals who derive pleasure from baseball analytics and (in another set) those who employ the phrase “hot mess” with some frequency, one would likely find that the circles occupied by those sets don’t overlap. Largely, that, because the former demographic is composed mostly of 18- to 34-year-old males; the latter, Southern women who’ve been dead for half a century. Were they to overlap, however, every one of those individuals who occupied both sets would feel compelled to describe the present iteration of the Phillies as a “hot mess” — for reasons that are illustrated by the ZiPS projections below. There are multiple examples of why, although the presence of Ryan Howard remains the most illustrative: with no fewer than two years and $60 million remaining on his contract, the 35-year-old Howard is projected to record a -0.1 WAR in 449 plate appearances. Pitchers Philadelphia does continue to employ one of the league’s better pitchers in left-hander Cole Hamels, whose 2014 season represented the eighth consecutive one in which he produced 3.5 wins or more. ZiPS calls for a ninth consecutive one of those in 2015. The historically even more proficient Cliff Lee receives an uncharacteristically muted projection (138.2 IP, 2.4 WAR) relative to his track record. Notably, however, Steamer forecasts a similarly pedestrian line (173.0 IP, 2.6 WAR). The author can’t speak to the precise causes for this. That said, Lee is a 36-year-old pitcher who, after six consecutive 200-innings seasons, recorded only 81.1 of those in 2014. That’s likely not a positive indicator. With regard to the bullpen, there’s more room for optimism than elsewhere on the club. Jake Diekman and Ken Giles sit at 97 mph from the left and right side, respectively. They’re both projected to produce strikeout rates solidly above 25%. Also expected to do that is Rule 5 pick Andrew Oliver. The left-hander sat at 94 mph as a starter and his strikeout rates increased this past season working in relief for Pittsburgh’s Triple-A club. Bench/Prospects Three of the Phillies’ top seven batter projections belong to players who retain rookie eligibility entering the 2015 season. Shortstop J.P. Crawford (537 PA, 1.4 WAR), other Rule 5 selection Odubel Herrera (564 PA, 1.3 WAR), and corner infielder Maikel Franco (634 PA, 1.8 WAR) all profile as competent major-league bench pieces already. Right-hander Ben Lively (112.1 IP, 0.9 WAR), who was acquired from Cincinnati for Marlon Byrd, receives the third-best wins projections among Phillies pitchers overall. Depth Chart Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Phils, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image. Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning. Batters, Counting Stats Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS Carlos Ruiz R 36 C 415 44 97 23 0 6 43 3 1 Chase Utley L 36 2B 507 64 117 24 5 12 64 8 1 Ben Revere L 27 CF 587 75 168 15 7 1 34 41 9 Maikel Franco R 22 3B 634 86 156 34 5 23 95 2 2 Cody Asche L 25 3B 556 64 131 28 3 14 67 5 3 J.P. Crawford L 20 SS 537 66 121 21 1 11 51 17 16 Odubel Herrera L 23 2B 564 56 143 18 5 2 40 15 9 Jordan Danks L 28 CF 462 54 95 17 2 10 45 8 3 Freddy Galvis B 25 SS 400 41 89 20 5 9 45 4 2 Cord Phelps B 28 2B 440 50 97 18 3 9 44 3 4 Cesar Hernandez B 25 3B 529 58 131 17 8 3 42 15 10 Domonic Brown L 27 LF 515 61 121 24 3 18 76 7 3 Aaron Altherr R 24 CF 524 55 106 26 4 10 54 13 6 Cameron Rupp R 26 C 344 33 67 14 0 8 36 0 0 Rene Garcia R 25 C 339 35 77 15 1 3 28 3 3 Tyler Henson R 27 2B 444 50 93 21 3 9 44 10 4 Darin Ruf R 28 LF 470 55 102 24 1 14 49 1 1 Tyson Gillies L 26 CF 274 29 58 9 3 4 20 6 3 Chris Nelson R 29 3B 445 45 102 18 3 8 50 3 3 Brian Bogusevic L 31 LF 391 45 82 15 3 8 37 10 5 Kelly Dugan L 24 RF 430 52 96 20 2 10 46 2 2 Andrew Knapp B 23 C 365 40 75 17 3 7 37 4 5 Chris McGuiness L 27 1B 469 49 96 25 1 11 48 0 2 Xavier Paul L 30 RF 318 36 73 13 2 9 38 4 2 Grady Sizemore L 32 LF 322 35 69 16 2 7 31 4 2 John Hester R 31 C 284 28 54 11 1 6 22 1 1 Zach Collier L 24 CF 397 42 77 11 5 7 34 8 6 Nate Spears L 30 2B 264 26 51 9 2 4 22 4 2 Russ Canzler R 29 1B 521 59 114 27 3 14 59 2 2 Tommy Joseph R 23 C 130 15 27 5 1 4 16 0 1 Ryan Howard L 35 1B 449 51 93 16 1 18 77 0 0 Andres Blanco B 31 SS 259 24 54 10 0 3 16 3 5 Koyie Hill B 36 C 213 19 39 9 1 3 15 0 1 Leandro Castro R 26 CF 478 52 114 22 3 7 48 10 6 Darin Mastroianni R 29 CF 368 40 78 12 2 4 28 16 4 Clete Thomas L 31 CF 354 37 69 16 1 7 31 8 3 Tony Gwynn Jr. L 32 CF 299 33 61 8 3 1 18 8 5 Chase d’Arnaud R 28 CF 404 46 81 15 7 4 34 22 8 Roman Quinn B 22 CF 396 47 80 10 3 8 36 24 15 Cameron Perkins R 24 LF 468 48 109 25 4 5 45 5 5 Adam Loewen L 31 CF 257 25 49 10 0 6 36 3 2 Matt Tolbert B 33 3B 207 20 44 5 1 0 11 4 3 Jim Murphy R 29 1B 510 51 102 23 2 13 55 1 1 Jeff Francoeur R 31 RF 479 51 107 21 3 12 48 7 3 Brandon Short R 26 LF 290 28 57 13 2 4 24 4 4 *** Batters, Rates and Averages Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA Carlos Ruiz 415 7.5% 13.0% .111 .293 .264 .337 .375 .313 Chase Utley 507 7.9% 13.6% .156 .279 .259 .329 .415 .323 Ben Revere 587 3.6% 8.5% .058 .331 .303 .331 .361 .312 Maikel Franco 634 3.8% 15.9% .187 .275 .259 .289 .446 .320 Cody Asche 556 6.8% 23.0% .149 .315 .256 .310 .405 .312 J.P. Crawford 537 8.4% 19.2% .115 .293 .248 .312 .363 .297 Odubel Herrera 564 5.7% 18.4% .065 .337 .274 .317 .339 .289 Jordan Danks 462 9.5% 27.9% .124 .308 .232 .306 .356 .295 Freddy Galvis 400 4.5% 19.5% .152 .278 .239 .274 .391 .286 Cord Phelps 440 8.9% 18.6% .129 .287 .245 .314 .374 .304 Cesar Hernandez 529 6.0% 20.4% .086 .337 .268 .313 .354 .292 Domonic Brown 515 7.4% 18.4% .178 .284 .256 .311 .434 .323 Aaron Altherr 524 5.3% 32.1% .132 .309 .219 .265 .351 .271 Cameron Rupp 344 6.7% 32.8% .120 .299 .211 .270 .331 .271 Rene Garcia 339 3.2% 14.2% .081 .274 .241 .272 .322 .260 Tyler Henson 444 6.5% 32.7% .134 .332 .230 .285 .364 .285 Darin Ruf 470 8.3% 26.8% .163 .311 .245 .317 .408 .320 Tyson Gillies 274 4.4% 25.5% .107 .302 .230 .278 .337 .272 Chris Nelson 445 6.3% 22.0% .117 .305 .249 .297 .366 .290 Brian Bogusevic 391 9.0% 23.0% .129 .294 .236 .313 .365 .303 Kelly Dugan 430 6.0% 30.7% .138 .341 .244 .305 .382 .304 Andrew Knapp 365 5.8% 30.1% .129 .304 .221 .271 .350 .274 Chris McGuiness 469 9.8% 22.6% .143 .280 .230 .307 .373 .300 Xavier Paul 318 7.2% 24.5% .151 .312 .252 .309 .403 .311 Grady Sizemore 322 7.5% 21.7% .139 .283 .234 .295 .373 .298 John Hester 284 7.0% 28.5% .119 .274 .208 .265 .327 .264 Zach Collier 397 6.3% 31.5% .117 .304 .214 .277 .331 .270 Nate Spears 264 8.0% 24.6% .106 .276 .215 .282 .321 .268 Russ Canzler 521 7.7% 24.0% .158 .294 .240 .299 .398 .307 Tommy Joseph 130 4.6% 23.1% .157 .261 .223 .269 .380 .284 Ryan Howard 449 9.1% 29.2% .181 .295 .234 .310 .415 .310 Andres Blanco 259 5.4% 18.1% .080 .270 .227 .275 .307 .248 Koyie Hill 213 6.6% 27.2% .102 .265 .199 .251 .301 .241 Leandro Castro 478 3.1% 17.6% .108 .293 .252 .278 .360 .279 Darin Mastroianni 368 7.1% 19.6% .083 .285 .234 .293 .317 .279 Clete Thomas 354 7.1% 29.9% .120 .291 .212 .270 .332 .268 Tony Gwynn Jr. 299 8.0% 17.7% .063 .279 .228 .293 .291 .259 Chase d’Arnaud 404 5.7% 23.5% .110 .279 .217 .269 .327 .268 Roman Quinn 396 6.3% 26.3% .112 .290 .224 .286 .336 .275 Cameron Perkins 468 4.5% 19.2% .109 .302 .249 .290 .358 .284 Adam Loewen 257 7.8% 31.9% .118 .291 .208 .272 .326 .270 Matt Tolbert 207 5.8% 15.0% .037 .277 .233 .281 .270 .241 Jim Murphy 510 7.3% 28.6% .142 .288 .220 .282 .362 .286 Jeff Francoeur 479 4.2% 22.1% .140 .282 .237 .273 .377 .283 Brandon Short 290 5.2% 27.2% .109 .283 .213 .260 .322 .256 *** Batters, Assorted Other Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp Carlos Ruiz 415 4.7 96 2 2.5 Phil Masi Chase Utley 507 5.1 104 2 2.5 Phil Garner Ben Revere 587 5.1 91 -2 2.0 Alex Sanchez Maikel Franco 634 4.7 99 -6 1.8 Ed Sprague Cody Asche 556 4.6 96 -3 1.6 Roy Howell J.P. Crawford 537 3.7 86 -1 1.4 Jeff Huson Odubel Herrera 564 3.9 81 3 1.3 Manuel Lee Jordan Danks 462 3.9 82 3 1.2 Kevin Koslofski Freddy Galvis 400 3.8 81 1 1.1 Luis Quinones Cord Phelps 440 4.1 89 -3 0.8 Ed Giovanola Cesar Hernandez 529 4.0 84 -1 0.8 Manuel Lee Domonic Brown 515 4.9 103 -5 0.8 Frank Bellino Aaron Altherr 524 3.2 68 7 0.7 Francisco Batista Cameron Rupp 344 3.1 65 1 0.7 Craig Faulkner Rene Garcia 339 3.0 63 3 0.7 Cesar Devarez Tyler Henson 444 3.7 78 0 0.6 David Howard Darin Ruf 470 4.6 98 -4 0.5 Joe Vitiello Tyson Gillies 274 3.3 69 4 0.5 Alexis Gomez Chris Nelson 445 3.8 82 -2 0.4 Steve Springer Brian Bogusevic 391 4.0 87 0 0.3 Lou Collier Kelly Dugan 430 4.1 88 -1 0.3 Craig Cooper Andrew Knapp 365 3.1 70 -5 0.1 Brandon Yarbrough Chris McGuiness 469 3.9 87 2 0.1 Cody Ehlers Xavier Paul 318 4.5 95 -4 0.1 Keith Williams Grady Sizemore 322 3.9 83 0 0.1 Dann Howitt John Hester 284 2.9 62 -2 0.1 Chad Moeller Zach Collier 397 3.0 67 1 0.0 Jeff McNeely Nate Spears 264 3.1 66 0 0.0 Paul Hoover Russ Canzler 521 4.2 91 -1 0.0 Simon Pond Tommy Joseph 130 3.4 77 -4 -0.1 Walt McKeel Ryan Howard 449 4.5 98 -4 -0.1 Paul Sorrento Andres Blanco 259 2.6 60 1 -0.1 Gary Green Koyie Hill 213 2.5 52 0 -0.1 Tony Pena Leandro Castro 478 3.6 75 -4 -0.1 Frank Diaz Darin Mastroianni 368 3.5 69 -5 -0.2 Trenidad Hubbard Clete Thomas 354 3.1 65 -2 -0.3 Colin Porter Tony Gwynn Jr. 299 2.9 62 0 -0.3 Thurman Tucker Chase d’Arnaud 404 3.2 64 -2 -0.3 Todd Donovan Roman Quinn 396 3.2 71 -4 -0.3 Jeff McNeely Cameron Perkins 468 3.6 78 0 -0.4 Ronald Crowe Adam Loewen 257 3.0 65 -3 -0.4 Nate Murphy Matt Tolbert 207 2.6 53 -2 -0.7 Jose Vizcaino Jim Murphy 510 3.5 76 0 -0.8 Matt Padgett Jeff Francoeur 479 3.7 77 -7 -1.2 Shawn Garrett Brandon Short 290 2.7 60 -4 -1.3 Jason Aspito *** Pitchers, Counting Stats Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER Cole Hamels L 31 30 30 202.0 194 52 21 183 80 75 Cliff Lee L 36 21 21 138.7 130 21 15 135 57 53 Ben Lively R 23 23 23 112.3 104 45 13 106 56 52 Ken Giles R 24 53 0 55.0 72 20 5 42 18 17 Jonathan Papelbon R 34 60 0 59.3 60 14 5 51 21 20 Aaron Harang R 37 25 25 148.0 106 54 16 157 79 74 Chad Billingsley R 30 8 8 42.3 34 15 4 43 20 19 Andrew Oliver L 27 53 0 63.0 82 40 6 48 27 25 Jake Diekman L 28 69 0 66.3 79 38 5 57 29 27 Justin De Fratus R 27 63 0 61.3 53 20 6 58 27 25 David Buchanan R 26 25 25 141.7 87 45 17 153 78 73 Jonathan Pettibone R 24 15 15 79.0 49 25 8 87 43 40 Miguel Gonzalez R 28 29 13 96.7 71 35 12 98 52 49 Mike Adams R 36 33 0 28.3 27 10 3 26 13 12 Kevin Slowey R 31 15 7 55.0 41 14 7 61 31 29 Luis Garcia R 28 54 0 63.3 59 30 6 59 31 29 Cesar Jimenez L 30 46 0 60.7 47 28 5 59 30 28 Seth Rosin R 26 38 9 79.3 61 26 11 83 44 41 Aaron Nola R 22 19 19 106.3 81 25 17 115 62 58 Jeanmar Gomez R 27 47 0 62.0 45 24 7 63 31 29 Zach Eflin R 21 24 24 121.3 75 40 16 134 71 66 Tom Windle L 23 25 25 120.0 83 52 15 129 71 66 Mario Hollands L 26 52 0 48.3 37 22 4 48 26 24 Jerome Williams R 33 32 15 124.7 85 39 17 134 72 67 Ethan Martin R 26 47 0 61.0 55 34 7 58 32 30 Shawn Camp R 39 25 0 28.3 20 8 5 32 17 16 Adam Morgan L 25 18 18 88.3 63 36 13 97 55 51 Severino Gonzalez R 22 26 22 132.0 97 36 22 144 79 74 Hector Neris R 26 48 3 80.3 72 33 12 80 45 42 Adam Loewen L 31 18 18 97.0 67 63 11 100 60 56 Stephen Shackleford R 26 43 0 55.0 44 32 6 55 31 29 Phillippe Aumont R 26 50 0 60.0 61 47 6 56 34 32 Matt Hoffman L 26 41 0 44.0 34 21 6 47 27 25 Jesse Biddle L 23 22 22 107.0 105 66 18 105 67 63 Jo-Jo Reyes L 30 18 14 81.3 43 34 12 94 54 50 Elvis Araujo L 23 45 0 48.7 40 32 7 50 31 29 Sean O’Sullivan R 27 27 22 137.0 81 51 19 154 86 80 Joely Rodriguez L 23 27 22 122.7 71 49 17 140 78 73 Paul Clemens R 27 33 12 93.7 61 39 15 104 61 57 Nefi Ogando R 26 43 0 60.7 43 36 8 65 39 36 Chris Bootcheck R 36 20 12 68.3 41 36 13 80 51 48 *** Pitchers, Rates and Averages Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP- Cole Hamels 202.0 841 23.1% 6.2% .285 3.34 3.50 89 93 Cliff Lee 138.7 572 22.7% 3.7% .297 3.44 3.29 92 88 Ben Lively 112.3 488 21.3% 9.2% .291 4.17 4.28 111 114 Ken Giles 55.0 227 31.7% 8.8% .289 2.78 2.97 74 79 Jonathan Papelbon 59.3 243 24.7% 5.8% .286 3.03 3.15 81 84 Aaron Harang 148.0 655 16.2% 8.2% .296 4.50 4.31 120 115 Chad Billingsley 42.3 185 18.4% 8.1% .298 4.04 4.02 108 107 Andrew Oliver 63.0 277 29.6% 14.4% .288 3.57 3.85 95 103 Jake Diekman 66.3 294 26.9% 12.9% .308 3.66 3.54 98 94 Justin De Fratus 61.3 262 20.2% 7.6% .291 3.67 3.84 98 102 David Buchanan 141.7 623 14.0% 7.2% .292 4.64 4.70 124 125 Jonathan Pettibone 79.0 349 14.0% 7.2% .299 4.56 4.33 122 115 Miguel Gonzalez 96.7 423 16.8% 8.3% .286 4.56 4.56 122 122 Mike Adams 28.3 121 22.3% 8.3% .288 3.81 3.80 102 101 Kevin Slowey 55.0 240 17.1% 5.8% .309 4.75 4.36 127 116 Luis Garcia 63.3 279 21.2% 10.8% .293 4.12 4.15 110 111 Cesar Jimenez 60.7 269 17.5% 10.4% .290 4.15 4.27 111 114 Seth Rosin 79.3 347 17.6% 7.5% .294 4.65 4.63 124 123 Aaron Nola 106.3 459 17.7% 5.4% .297 4.91 4.69 131 125 Jeanmar Gomez 62.0 273 16.5% 8.8% .287 4.21 4.25 112 113 Zach Eflin 121.3 538 13.9% 7.4% .295 4.90 4.88 131 130 Tom Windle 120.0 541 15.3% 9.6% .296 4.95 4.96 132 132 Mario Hollands 48.3 215 17.2% 10.2% .292 4.47 4.11 119 110 Jerome Williams 124.7 547 15.5% 7.1% .292 4.84 4.68 129 125 Ethan Martin 61.0 275 20.0% 12.4% .290 4.43 4.72 118 126 Shawn Camp 28.3 125 16.0% 6.4% .297 5.08 4.89 135 130 Adam Morgan 88.3 398 15.8% 9.0% .300 5.20 5.14 139 137 Severino Gonzalez 132.0 576 16.8% 6.3% .295 5.05 4.94 135 132 Hector Neris 80.3 354 20.3% 9.3% .293 4.71 4.80 126 128 Adam Loewen 97.0 454 14.8% 13.9% .290 5.20 5.49 139 146 Stephen Shackleford 55.0 252 17.5% 12.7% .293 4.75 4.83 127 129 Phillippe Aumont 60.0 283 21.6% 16.6% .303 4.80 5.03 128 134 Matt Hoffman 44.0 200 17.0% 10.5% .299 5.11 4.92 136 131 Jesse Biddle 107.0 492 21.3% 13.4% .293 5.30 5.51 141 147 Jo-Jo Reyes 81.3 372 11.6% 9.1% .295 5.53 5.53 147 147 Elvis Araujo 48.7 228 17.5% 14.0% .294 5.36 5.46 143 146 Sean O’Sullivan 137.0 616 13.1% 8.3% .295 5.26 5.13 140 137 Joely Rodriguez 122.7 557 12.7% 8.8% .298 5.36 5.25 143 140 Paul Clemens 93.7 424 14.4% 9.2% .293 5.48 5.39 146 144 Nefi Ogando 60.7 283 15.2% 12.7% .297 5.34 5.54 142 148 Chris Bootcheck 68.3 321 12.8% 11.2% .295 6.32 6.30 169 168 *** Pitchers, Assorted Other Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp Cole Hamels 202.0 8.64 2.32 0.94 112 3.7 Vida Blue Cliff Lee 138.7 8.44 1.36 0.97 108 2.4 John Candelaria Ben Lively 112.3 8.33 3.61 1.04 90 0.9 Jimmy Journell Ken Giles 55.0 11.78 3.27 0.82 134 0.8 Jose Valverde Jonathan Papelbon 59.3 9.11 2.12 0.76 123 0.7 Mike Maddux Aaron Harang 148.0 6.45 3.28 0.97 83 0.5 Rick Sutcliffe Chad Billingsley 42.3 7.23 3.19 0.85 92 0.4 Charlie Puleo Andrew Oliver 63.0 11.71 5.71 0.86 104 0.3 Ricky Pickett Jake Diekman 66.3 10.72 5.16 0.68 102 0.3 Ricky Pickett Justin De Fratus 61.3 7.78 2.94 0.88 102 0.2 Mark Brown David Buchanan 141.7 5.53 2.86 1.08 80 0.2 Jon Adkins Jonathan Pettibone 79.0 5.58 2.85 0.91 82 0.2 Kirk McDonald Miguel Gonzalez 96.7 6.61 3.26 1.12 82 0.1 Craig Weissmann Mike Adams 28.3 8.59 3.18 0.95 98 0.1 Mike Fetters Kevin Slowey 55.0 6.71 2.29 1.15 79 -0.1 Sam Arrington Luis Garcia 63.3 8.39 4.27 0.85 90 -0.1 Derrick Turnbow Cesar Jimenez 60.7 6.97 4.15 0.74 90 -0.2 Matt Whisenant Seth Rosin 79.3 6.92 2.95 1.25 80 -0.2 Bryan Corey Aaron Nola 106.3 6.86 2.12 1.44 76 -0.2 Mark DiFelice Jeanmar Gomez 62.0 6.53 3.48 1.02 89 -0.2 Kenny Greer Zach Eflin 121.3 5.56 2.97 1.19 76 -0.2 Jason Karnuth Tom Windle 120.0 6.23 3.90 1.13 75 -0.3 John Habyan Mario Hollands 48.3 6.89 4.10 0.75 83 -0.3 Mark Dempsey Jerome Williams 124.7 6.13 2.81 1.23 77 -0.3 Pete Smith Ethan Martin 61.0 8.11 5.02 1.03 84 -0.4 Jason Gilfillan Shawn Camp 28.3 6.36 2.54 1.59 73 -0.4 Boom-Boom Beck Adam Morgan 88.3 6.42 3.67 1.33 72 -0.5 Tommy Phelps Severino Gonzalez 132.0 6.61 2.45 1.50 74 -0.5 Rusty Meacham Hector Neris 80.3 8.07 3.70 1.34 79 -0.5 Rob Woodward Adam Loewen 97.0 6.22 5.85 1.02 72 -0.5 Steve Avery Stephen Shackleford 55.0 7.20 5.24 0.98 79 -0.6 Pete Sikaras Phillippe Aumont 60.0 9.15 7.05 0.90 78 -0.7 Bill Bene Matt Hoffman 44.0 6.95 4.30 1.23 73 -0.7 Bob Ayrault Jesse Biddle 107.0 8.83 5.55 1.51 70 -0.7 Daniel Haigwood Jo-Jo Reyes 81.3 4.76 3.76 1.33 67 -0.9 Jimmy Williams Elvis Araujo 48.7 7.39 5.91 1.29 70 -0.9 Casey DeHart Sean O’Sullivan 137.0 5.32 3.35 1.25 71 -0.9 Jim Magrane Joely Rodriguez 122.7 5.21 3.59 1.25 70 -1.0 Dusty Bergman Paul Clemens 93.7 5.86 3.75 1.44 68 -1.1 Scott Shoemaker Nefi Ogando 60.7 6.38 5.34 1.19 70 -1.1 Matt Smith Chris Bootcheck 68.3 5.40 4.74 1.71 59 -1.5 Bobby Witt *** Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.” Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.