2015 ZiPS Projections – Philadelphia Phillies

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Philadelphia Phillies. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Oakland / Pittsburgh / San Diego / San Francisco / St. Louis / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Texas / Washington.

Batters
Were one to construct a Venn diagram depicting (in one set) those individuals who derive pleasure from baseball analytics and (in another set) those who employ the phrase “hot mess” with some frequency, one would likely find that the circles occupied by those sets don’t overlap. Largely, that, because the former demographic is composed mostly of 18- to 34-year-old males; the latter, Southern women who’ve been dead for half a century.

Were they to overlap, however, every one of those individuals who occupied both sets would feel compelled to describe the present iteration of the Phillies as a “hot mess” — for reasons that are illustrated by the ZiPS projections below. There are multiple examples of why, although the presence of Ryan Howard remains the most illustrative: with no fewer than two years and $60 million remaining on his contract, the 35-year-old Howard is projected to record a -0.1 WAR in 449 plate appearances.

Pitchers
Philadelphia does continue to employ one of the league’s better pitchers in left-hander Cole Hamels, whose 2014 season represented the eighth consecutive one in which he produced 3.5 wins or more. ZiPS calls for a ninth consecutive one of those in 2015. The historically even more proficient Cliff Lee receives an uncharacteristically muted projection (138.2 IP, 2.4 WAR) relative to his track record. Notably, however, Steamer forecasts a similarly pedestrian line (173.0 IP, 2.6 WAR). The author can’t speak to the precise causes for this. That said, Lee is a 36-year-old pitcher who, after six consecutive 200-innings seasons, recorded only 81.1 of those in 2014. That’s likely not a positive indicator.

With regard to the bullpen, there’s more room for optimism than elsewhere on the club. Jake Diekman and Ken Giles sit at 97 mph from the left and right side, respectively. They’re both projected to produce strikeout rates solidly above 25%. Also expected to do that is Rule 5 pick Andrew Oliver. The left-hander sat at 94 mph as a starter and his strikeout rates increased this past season working in relief for Pittsburgh’s Triple-A club.

Bench/Prospects
Three of the Phillies’ top seven batter projections belong to players who retain rookie eligibility entering the 2015 season. Shortstop J.P. Crawford (537 PA, 1.4 WAR), other Rule 5 selection Odubel Herrera (564 PA, 1.3 WAR), and corner infielder Maikel Franco (634 PA, 1.8 WAR) all profile as competent major-league bench pieces already. Right-hander Ben Lively (112.1 IP, 0.9 WAR), who was acquired from Cincinnati for Marlon Byrd, receives the third-best wins projections among Phillies pitchers overall.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Phils, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Phillies Depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Carlos Ruiz R 36 C 415 44 97 23 0 6 43 3 1
Chase Utley L 36 2B 507 64 117 24 5 12 64 8 1
Ben Revere L 27 CF 587 75 168 15 7 1 34 41 9
Maikel Franco R 22 3B 634 86 156 34 5 23 95 2 2
Cody Asche L 25 3B 556 64 131 28 3 14 67 5 3
J.P. Crawford L 20 SS 537 66 121 21 1 11 51 17 16
Odubel Herrera L 23 2B 564 56 143 18 5 2 40 15 9
Jordan Danks L 28 CF 462 54 95 17 2 10 45 8 3
Freddy Galvis B 25 SS 400 41 89 20 5 9 45 4 2
Cord Phelps B 28 2B 440 50 97 18 3 9 44 3 4
Cesar Hernandez B 25 3B 529 58 131 17 8 3 42 15 10
Domonic Brown L 27 LF 515 61 121 24 3 18 76 7 3
Aaron Altherr R 24 CF 524 55 106 26 4 10 54 13 6
Cameron Rupp R 26 C 344 33 67 14 0 8 36 0 0
Rene Garcia R 25 C 339 35 77 15 1 3 28 3 3
Tyler Henson R 27 2B 444 50 93 21 3 9 44 10 4
Darin Ruf R 28 LF 470 55 102 24 1 14 49 1 1
Tyson Gillies L 26 CF 274 29 58 9 3 4 20 6 3
Chris Nelson R 29 3B 445 45 102 18 3 8 50 3 3
Brian Bogusevic L 31 LF 391 45 82 15 3 8 37 10 5
Kelly Dugan L 24 RF 430 52 96 20 2 10 46 2 2
Andrew Knapp B 23 C 365 40 75 17 3 7 37 4 5
Chris McGuiness L 27 1B 469 49 96 25 1 11 48 0 2
Xavier Paul L 30 RF 318 36 73 13 2 9 38 4 2
Grady Sizemore L 32 LF 322 35 69 16 2 7 31 4 2
John Hester R 31 C 284 28 54 11 1 6 22 1 1
Zach Collier L 24 CF 397 42 77 11 5 7 34 8 6
Nate Spears L 30 2B 264 26 51 9 2 4 22 4 2
Russ Canzler R 29 1B 521 59 114 27 3 14 59 2 2
Tommy Joseph R 23 C 130 15 27 5 1 4 16 0 1
Ryan Howard L 35 1B 449 51 93 16 1 18 77 0 0
Andres Blanco B 31 SS 259 24 54 10 0 3 16 3 5
Koyie Hill B 36 C 213 19 39 9 1 3 15 0 1
Leandro Castro R 26 CF 478 52 114 22 3 7 48 10 6
Darin Mastroianni R 29 CF 368 40 78 12 2 4 28 16 4
Clete Thomas L 31 CF 354 37 69 16 1 7 31 8 3
Tony Gwynn Jr. L 32 CF 299 33 61 8 3 1 18 8 5
Chase d’Arnaud R 28 CF 404 46 81 15 7 4 34 22 8
Roman Quinn B 22 CF 396 47 80 10 3 8 36 24 15
Cameron Perkins R 24 LF 468 48 109 25 4 5 45 5 5
Adam Loewen L 31 CF 257 25 49 10 0 6 36 3 2
Matt Tolbert B 33 3B 207 20 44 5 1 0 11 4 3
Jim Murphy R 29 1B 510 51 102 23 2 13 55 1 1
Jeff Francoeur R 31 RF 479 51 107 21 3 12 48 7 3
Brandon Short R 26 LF 290 28 57 13 2 4 24 4 4

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Carlos Ruiz 415 7.5% 13.0% .111 .293 .264 .337 .375 .313
Chase Utley 507 7.9% 13.6% .156 .279 .259 .329 .415 .323
Ben Revere 587 3.6% 8.5% .058 .331 .303 .331 .361 .312
Maikel Franco 634 3.8% 15.9% .187 .275 .259 .289 .446 .320
Cody Asche 556 6.8% 23.0% .149 .315 .256 .310 .405 .312
J.P. Crawford 537 8.4% 19.2% .115 .293 .248 .312 .363 .297
Odubel Herrera 564 5.7% 18.4% .065 .337 .274 .317 .339 .289
Jordan Danks 462 9.5% 27.9% .124 .308 .232 .306 .356 .295
Freddy Galvis 400 4.5% 19.5% .152 .278 .239 .274 .391 .286
Cord Phelps 440 8.9% 18.6% .129 .287 .245 .314 .374 .304
Cesar Hernandez 529 6.0% 20.4% .086 .337 .268 .313 .354 .292
Domonic Brown 515 7.4% 18.4% .178 .284 .256 .311 .434 .323
Aaron Altherr 524 5.3% 32.1% .132 .309 .219 .265 .351 .271
Cameron Rupp 344 6.7% 32.8% .120 .299 .211 .270 .331 .271
Rene Garcia 339 3.2% 14.2% .081 .274 .241 .272 .322 .260
Tyler Henson 444 6.5% 32.7% .134 .332 .230 .285 .364 .285
Darin Ruf 470 8.3% 26.8% .163 .311 .245 .317 .408 .320
Tyson Gillies 274 4.4% 25.5% .107 .302 .230 .278 .337 .272
Chris Nelson 445 6.3% 22.0% .117 .305 .249 .297 .366 .290
Brian Bogusevic 391 9.0% 23.0% .129 .294 .236 .313 .365 .303
Kelly Dugan 430 6.0% 30.7% .138 .341 .244 .305 .382 .304
Andrew Knapp 365 5.8% 30.1% .129 .304 .221 .271 .350 .274
Chris McGuiness 469 9.8% 22.6% .143 .280 .230 .307 .373 .300
Xavier Paul 318 7.2% 24.5% .151 .312 .252 .309 .403 .311
Grady Sizemore 322 7.5% 21.7% .139 .283 .234 .295 .373 .298
John Hester 284 7.0% 28.5% .119 .274 .208 .265 .327 .264
Zach Collier 397 6.3% 31.5% .117 .304 .214 .277 .331 .270
Nate Spears 264 8.0% 24.6% .106 .276 .215 .282 .321 .268
Russ Canzler 521 7.7% 24.0% .158 .294 .240 .299 .398 .307
Tommy Joseph 130 4.6% 23.1% .157 .261 .223 .269 .380 .284
Ryan Howard 449 9.1% 29.2% .181 .295 .234 .310 .415 .310
Andres Blanco 259 5.4% 18.1% .080 .270 .227 .275 .307 .248
Koyie Hill 213 6.6% 27.2% .102 .265 .199 .251 .301 .241
Leandro Castro 478 3.1% 17.6% .108 .293 .252 .278 .360 .279
Darin Mastroianni 368 7.1% 19.6% .083 .285 .234 .293 .317 .279
Clete Thomas 354 7.1% 29.9% .120 .291 .212 .270 .332 .268
Tony Gwynn Jr. 299 8.0% 17.7% .063 .279 .228 .293 .291 .259
Chase d’Arnaud 404 5.7% 23.5% .110 .279 .217 .269 .327 .268
Roman Quinn 396 6.3% 26.3% .112 .290 .224 .286 .336 .275
Cameron Perkins 468 4.5% 19.2% .109 .302 .249 .290 .358 .284
Adam Loewen 257 7.8% 31.9% .118 .291 .208 .272 .326 .270
Matt Tolbert 207 5.8% 15.0% .037 .277 .233 .281 .270 .241
Jim Murphy 510 7.3% 28.6% .142 .288 .220 .282 .362 .286
Jeff Francoeur 479 4.2% 22.1% .140 .282 .237 .273 .377 .283
Brandon Short 290 5.2% 27.2% .109 .283 .213 .260 .322 .256

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Carlos Ruiz 415 4.7 96 2 2.5 Phil Masi
Chase Utley 507 5.1 104 2 2.5 Phil Garner
Ben Revere 587 5.1 91 -2 2.0 Alex Sanchez
Maikel Franco 634 4.7 99 -6 1.8 Ed Sprague
Cody Asche 556 4.6 96 -3 1.6 Roy Howell
J.P. Crawford 537 3.7 86 -1 1.4 Jeff Huson
Odubel Herrera 564 3.9 81 3 1.3 Manuel Lee
Jordan Danks 462 3.9 82 3 1.2 Kevin Koslofski
Freddy Galvis 400 3.8 81 1 1.1 Luis Quinones
Cord Phelps 440 4.1 89 -3 0.8 Ed Giovanola
Cesar Hernandez 529 4.0 84 -1 0.8 Manuel Lee
Domonic Brown 515 4.9 103 -5 0.8 Frank Bellino
Aaron Altherr 524 3.2 68 7 0.7 Francisco Batista
Cameron Rupp 344 3.1 65 1 0.7 Craig Faulkner
Rene Garcia 339 3.0 63 3 0.7 Cesar Devarez
Tyler Henson 444 3.7 78 0 0.6 David Howard
Darin Ruf 470 4.6 98 -4 0.5 Joe Vitiello
Tyson Gillies 274 3.3 69 4 0.5 Alexis Gomez
Chris Nelson 445 3.8 82 -2 0.4 Steve Springer
Brian Bogusevic 391 4.0 87 0 0.3 Lou Collier
Kelly Dugan 430 4.1 88 -1 0.3 Craig Cooper
Andrew Knapp 365 3.1 70 -5 0.1 Brandon Yarbrough
Chris McGuiness 469 3.9 87 2 0.1 Cody Ehlers
Xavier Paul 318 4.5 95 -4 0.1 Keith Williams
Grady Sizemore 322 3.9 83 0 0.1 Dann Howitt
John Hester 284 2.9 62 -2 0.1 Chad Moeller
Zach Collier 397 3.0 67 1 0.0 Jeff McNeely
Nate Spears 264 3.1 66 0 0.0 Paul Hoover
Russ Canzler 521 4.2 91 -1 0.0 Simon Pond
Tommy Joseph 130 3.4 77 -4 -0.1 Walt McKeel
Ryan Howard 449 4.5 98 -4 -0.1 Paul Sorrento
Andres Blanco 259 2.6 60 1 -0.1 Gary Green
Koyie Hill 213 2.5 52 0 -0.1 Tony Pena
Leandro Castro 478 3.6 75 -4 -0.1 Frank Diaz
Darin Mastroianni 368 3.5 69 -5 -0.2 Trenidad Hubbard
Clete Thomas 354 3.1 65 -2 -0.3 Colin Porter
Tony Gwynn Jr. 299 2.9 62 0 -0.3 Thurman Tucker
Chase d’Arnaud 404 3.2 64 -2 -0.3 Todd Donovan
Roman Quinn 396 3.2 71 -4 -0.3 Jeff McNeely
Cameron Perkins 468 3.6 78 0 -0.4 Ronald Crowe
Adam Loewen 257 3.0 65 -3 -0.4 Nate Murphy
Matt Tolbert 207 2.6 53 -2 -0.7 Jose Vizcaino
Jim Murphy 510 3.5 76 0 -0.8 Matt Padgett
Jeff Francoeur 479 3.7 77 -7 -1.2 Shawn Garrett
Brandon Short 290 2.7 60 -4 -1.3 Jason Aspito

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Cole Hamels L 31 30 30 202.0 194 52 21 183 80 75
Cliff Lee L 36 21 21 138.7 130 21 15 135 57 53
Ben Lively R 23 23 23 112.3 104 45 13 106 56 52
Ken Giles R 24 53 0 55.0 72 20 5 42 18 17
Jonathan Papelbon R 34 60 0 59.3 60 14 5 51 21 20
Aaron Harang R 37 25 25 148.0 106 54 16 157 79 74
Chad Billingsley R 30 8 8 42.3 34 15 4 43 20 19
Andrew Oliver L 27 53 0 63.0 82 40 6 48 27 25
Jake Diekman L 28 69 0 66.3 79 38 5 57 29 27
Justin De Fratus R 27 63 0 61.3 53 20 6 58 27 25
David Buchanan R 26 25 25 141.7 87 45 17 153 78 73
Jonathan Pettibone R 24 15 15 79.0 49 25 8 87 43 40
Miguel Gonzalez R 28 29 13 96.7 71 35 12 98 52 49
Mike Adams R 36 33 0 28.3 27 10 3 26 13 12
Kevin Slowey R 31 15 7 55.0 41 14 7 61 31 29
Luis Garcia R 28 54 0 63.3 59 30 6 59 31 29
Cesar Jimenez L 30 46 0 60.7 47 28 5 59 30 28
Seth Rosin R 26 38 9 79.3 61 26 11 83 44 41
Aaron Nola R 22 19 19 106.3 81 25 17 115 62 58
Jeanmar Gomez R 27 47 0 62.0 45 24 7 63 31 29
Zach Eflin R 21 24 24 121.3 75 40 16 134 71 66
Tom Windle L 23 25 25 120.0 83 52 15 129 71 66
Mario Hollands L 26 52 0 48.3 37 22 4 48 26 24
Jerome Williams R 33 32 15 124.7 85 39 17 134 72 67
Ethan Martin R 26 47 0 61.0 55 34 7 58 32 30
Shawn Camp R 39 25 0 28.3 20 8 5 32 17 16
Adam Morgan L 25 18 18 88.3 63 36 13 97 55 51
Severino Gonzalez R 22 26 22 132.0 97 36 22 144 79 74
Hector Neris R 26 48 3 80.3 72 33 12 80 45 42
Adam Loewen L 31 18 18 97.0 67 63 11 100 60 56
Stephen Shackleford R 26 43 0 55.0 44 32 6 55 31 29
Phillippe Aumont R 26 50 0 60.0 61 47 6 56 34 32
Matt Hoffman L 26 41 0 44.0 34 21 6 47 27 25
Jesse Biddle L 23 22 22 107.0 105 66 18 105 67 63
Jo-Jo Reyes L 30 18 14 81.3 43 34 12 94 54 50
Elvis Araujo L 23 45 0 48.7 40 32 7 50 31 29
Sean O’Sullivan R 27 27 22 137.0 81 51 19 154 86 80
Joely Rodriguez L 23 27 22 122.7 71 49 17 140 78 73
Paul Clemens R 27 33 12 93.7 61 39 15 104 61 57
Nefi Ogando R 26 43 0 60.7 43 36 8 65 39 36
Chris Bootcheck R 36 20 12 68.3 41 36 13 80 51 48

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Cole Hamels 202.0 841 23.1% 6.2% .285 3.34 3.50 89 93
Cliff Lee 138.7 572 22.7% 3.7% .297 3.44 3.29 92 88
Ben Lively 112.3 488 21.3% 9.2% .291 4.17 4.28 111 114
Ken Giles 55.0 227 31.7% 8.8% .289 2.78 2.97 74 79
Jonathan Papelbon 59.3 243 24.7% 5.8% .286 3.03 3.15 81 84
Aaron Harang 148.0 655 16.2% 8.2% .296 4.50 4.31 120 115
Chad Billingsley 42.3 185 18.4% 8.1% .298 4.04 4.02 108 107
Andrew Oliver 63.0 277 29.6% 14.4% .288 3.57 3.85 95 103
Jake Diekman 66.3 294 26.9% 12.9% .308 3.66 3.54 98 94
Justin De Fratus 61.3 262 20.2% 7.6% .291 3.67 3.84 98 102
David Buchanan 141.7 623 14.0% 7.2% .292 4.64 4.70 124 125
Jonathan Pettibone 79.0 349 14.0% 7.2% .299 4.56 4.33 122 115
Miguel Gonzalez 96.7 423 16.8% 8.3% .286 4.56 4.56 122 122
Mike Adams 28.3 121 22.3% 8.3% .288 3.81 3.80 102 101
Kevin Slowey 55.0 240 17.1% 5.8% .309 4.75 4.36 127 116
Luis Garcia 63.3 279 21.2% 10.8% .293 4.12 4.15 110 111
Cesar Jimenez 60.7 269 17.5% 10.4% .290 4.15 4.27 111 114
Seth Rosin 79.3 347 17.6% 7.5% .294 4.65 4.63 124 123
Aaron Nola 106.3 459 17.7% 5.4% .297 4.91 4.69 131 125
Jeanmar Gomez 62.0 273 16.5% 8.8% .287 4.21 4.25 112 113
Zach Eflin 121.3 538 13.9% 7.4% .295 4.90 4.88 131 130
Tom Windle 120.0 541 15.3% 9.6% .296 4.95 4.96 132 132
Mario Hollands 48.3 215 17.2% 10.2% .292 4.47 4.11 119 110
Jerome Williams 124.7 547 15.5% 7.1% .292 4.84 4.68 129 125
Ethan Martin 61.0 275 20.0% 12.4% .290 4.43 4.72 118 126
Shawn Camp 28.3 125 16.0% 6.4% .297 5.08 4.89 135 130
Adam Morgan 88.3 398 15.8% 9.0% .300 5.20 5.14 139 137
Severino Gonzalez 132.0 576 16.8% 6.3% .295 5.05 4.94 135 132
Hector Neris 80.3 354 20.3% 9.3% .293 4.71 4.80 126 128
Adam Loewen 97.0 454 14.8% 13.9% .290 5.20 5.49 139 146
Stephen Shackleford 55.0 252 17.5% 12.7% .293 4.75 4.83 127 129
Phillippe Aumont 60.0 283 21.6% 16.6% .303 4.80 5.03 128 134
Matt Hoffman 44.0 200 17.0% 10.5% .299 5.11 4.92 136 131
Jesse Biddle 107.0 492 21.3% 13.4% .293 5.30 5.51 141 147
Jo-Jo Reyes 81.3 372 11.6% 9.1% .295 5.53 5.53 147 147
Elvis Araujo 48.7 228 17.5% 14.0% .294 5.36 5.46 143 146
Sean O’Sullivan 137.0 616 13.1% 8.3% .295 5.26 5.13 140 137
Joely Rodriguez 122.7 557 12.7% 8.8% .298 5.36 5.25 143 140
Paul Clemens 93.7 424 14.4% 9.2% .293 5.48 5.39 146 144
Nefi Ogando 60.7 283 15.2% 12.7% .297 5.34 5.54 142 148
Chris Bootcheck 68.3 321 12.8% 11.2% .295 6.32 6.30 169 168

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Cole Hamels 202.0 8.64 2.32 0.94 112 3.7 Vida Blue
Cliff Lee 138.7 8.44 1.36 0.97 108 2.4 John Candelaria
Ben Lively 112.3 8.33 3.61 1.04 90 0.9 Jimmy Journell
Ken Giles 55.0 11.78 3.27 0.82 134 0.8 Jose Valverde
Jonathan Papelbon 59.3 9.11 2.12 0.76 123 0.7 Mike Maddux
Aaron Harang 148.0 6.45 3.28 0.97 83 0.5 Rick Sutcliffe
Chad Billingsley 42.3 7.23 3.19 0.85 92 0.4 Charlie Puleo
Andrew Oliver 63.0 11.71 5.71 0.86 104 0.3 Ricky Pickett
Jake Diekman 66.3 10.72 5.16 0.68 102 0.3 Ricky Pickett
Justin De Fratus 61.3 7.78 2.94 0.88 102 0.2 Mark Brown
David Buchanan 141.7 5.53 2.86 1.08 80 0.2 Jon Adkins
Jonathan Pettibone 79.0 5.58 2.85 0.91 82 0.2 Kirk McDonald
Miguel Gonzalez 96.7 6.61 3.26 1.12 82 0.1 Craig Weissmann
Mike Adams 28.3 8.59 3.18 0.95 98 0.1 Mike Fetters
Kevin Slowey 55.0 6.71 2.29 1.15 79 -0.1 Sam Arrington
Luis Garcia 63.3 8.39 4.27 0.85 90 -0.1 Derrick Turnbow
Cesar Jimenez 60.7 6.97 4.15 0.74 90 -0.2 Matt Whisenant
Seth Rosin 79.3 6.92 2.95 1.25 80 -0.2 Bryan Corey
Aaron Nola 106.3 6.86 2.12 1.44 76 -0.2 Mark DiFelice
Jeanmar Gomez 62.0 6.53 3.48 1.02 89 -0.2 Kenny Greer
Zach Eflin 121.3 5.56 2.97 1.19 76 -0.2 Jason Karnuth
Tom Windle 120.0 6.23 3.90 1.13 75 -0.3 John Habyan
Mario Hollands 48.3 6.89 4.10 0.75 83 -0.3 Mark Dempsey
Jerome Williams 124.7 6.13 2.81 1.23 77 -0.3 Pete Smith
Ethan Martin 61.0 8.11 5.02 1.03 84 -0.4 Jason Gilfillan
Shawn Camp 28.3 6.36 2.54 1.59 73 -0.4 Boom-Boom Beck
Adam Morgan 88.3 6.42 3.67 1.33 72 -0.5 Tommy Phelps
Severino Gonzalez 132.0 6.61 2.45 1.50 74 -0.5 Rusty Meacham
Hector Neris 80.3 8.07 3.70 1.34 79 -0.5 Rob Woodward
Adam Loewen 97.0 6.22 5.85 1.02 72 -0.5 Steve Avery
Stephen Shackleford 55.0 7.20 5.24 0.98 79 -0.6 Pete Sikaras
Phillippe Aumont 60.0 9.15 7.05 0.90 78 -0.7 Bill Bene
Matt Hoffman 44.0 6.95 4.30 1.23 73 -0.7 Bob Ayrault
Jesse Biddle 107.0 8.83 5.55 1.51 70 -0.7 Daniel Haigwood
Jo-Jo Reyes 81.3 4.76 3.76 1.33 67 -0.9 Jimmy Williams
Elvis Araujo 48.7 7.39 5.91 1.29 70 -0.9 Casey DeHart
Sean O’Sullivan 137.0 5.32 3.35 1.25 71 -0.9 Jim Magrane
Joely Rodriguez 122.7 5.21 3.59 1.25 70 -1.0 Dusty Bergman
Paul Clemens 93.7 5.86 3.75 1.44 68 -1.1 Scott Shoemaker
Nefi Ogando 60.7 6.38 5.34 1.19 70 -1.1 Matt Smith
Chris Bootcheck 68.3 5.40 4.74 1.71 59 -1.5 Bobby Witt

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.





Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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Peter
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Peter

I’ll take the “over” on Andrew Oliver’s BB/9 projection.