2015 ZiPS Projections – Philadelphia Phillies

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Philadelphia Phillies. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Oakland / Pittsburgh / San Diego / San Francisco / St. Louis / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Texas / Washington.

Batters
Were one to construct a Venn diagram depicting (in one set) those individuals who derive pleasure from baseball analytics and (in another set) those who employ the phrase “hot mess” with some frequency, one would likely find that the circles occupied by those sets don’t overlap. Largely, that, because the former demographic is composed mostly of 18- to 34-year-old males; the latter, Southern women who’ve been dead for half a century.

Were they to overlap, however, every one of those individuals who occupied both sets would feel compelled to describe the present iteration of the Phillies as a “hot mess” — for reasons that are illustrated by the ZiPS projections below. There are multiple examples of why, although the presence of Ryan Howard remains the most illustrative: with no fewer than two years and $60 million remaining on his contract, the 35-year-old Howard is projected to record a -0.1 WAR in 449 plate appearances.

Pitchers
Philadelphia does continue to employ one of the league’s better pitchers in left-hander Cole Hamels, whose 2014 season represented the eighth consecutive one in which he produced 3.5 wins or more. ZiPS calls for a ninth consecutive one of those in 2015. The historically even more proficient Cliff Lee receives an uncharacteristically muted projection (138.2 IP, 2.4 WAR) relative to his track record. Notably, however, Steamer forecasts a similarly pedestrian line (173.0 IP, 2.6 WAR). The author can’t speak to the precise causes for this. That said, Lee is a 36-year-old pitcher who, after six consecutive 200-innings seasons, recorded only 81.1 of those in 2014. That’s likely not a positive indicator.

With regard to the bullpen, there’s more room for optimism than elsewhere on the club. Jake Diekman and Ken Giles sit at 97 mph from the left and right side, respectively. They’re both projected to produce strikeout rates solidly above 25%. Also expected to do that is Rule 5 pick Andrew Oliver. The left-hander sat at 94 mph as a starter and his strikeout rates increased this past season working in relief for Pittsburgh’s Triple-A club.

Bench/Prospects
Three of the Phillies’ top seven batter projections belong to players who retain rookie eligibility entering the 2015 season. Shortstop J.P. Crawford (537 PA, 1.4 WAR), other Rule 5 selection Odubel Herrera (564 PA, 1.3 WAR), and corner infielder Maikel Franco (634 PA, 1.8 WAR) all profile as competent major-league bench pieces already. Right-hander Ben Lively (112.1 IP, 0.9 WAR), who was acquired from Cincinnati for Marlon Byrd, receives the third-best wins projections among Phillies pitchers overall.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Phils, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Carlos Ruiz	R	36	C	415	44	97	23	0	6	43	3	1
Chase Utley	L	36	2B	507	64	117	24	5	12	64	8	1
Ben Revere	L	27	CF	587	75	168	15	7	1	34	41	9
Maikel Franco	R	22	3B	634	86	156	34	5	23	95	2	2
Cody Asche	L	25	3B	556	64	131	28	3	14	67	5	3
J.P. Crawford	L	20	SS	537	66	121	21	1	11	51	17	16
Odubel Herrera	L	23	2B	564	56	143	18	5	2	40	15	9
Jordan Danks	L	28	CF	462	54	95	17	2	10	45	8	3
Freddy Galvis	B	25	SS	400	41	89	20	5	9	45	4	2
Cord Phelps	B	28	2B	440	50	97	18	3	9	44	3	4
Cesar Hernandez	B	25	3B	529	58	131	17	8	3	42	15	10
Domonic Brown	L	27	LF	515	61	121	24	3	18	76	7	3
Aaron Altherr	R	24	CF	524	55	106	26	4	10	54	13	6
Cameron Rupp	R	26	C	344	33	67	14	0	8	36	0	0
Rene Garcia	R	25	C	339	35	77	15	1	3	28	3	3
Tyler Henson	R	27	2B	444	50	93	21	3	9	44	10	4
Darin Ruf	R	28	LF	470	55	102	24	1	14	49	1	1
Tyson Gillies	L	26	CF	274	29	58	9	3	4	20	6	3
Chris Nelson	R	29	3B	445	45	102	18	3	8	50	3	3
Brian Bogusevic	L	31	LF	391	45	82	15	3	8	37	10	5
Kelly Dugan	L	24	RF	430	52	96	20	2	10	46	2	2
Andrew Knapp	B	23	C	365	40	75	17	3	7	37	4	5
Chris McGuiness	L	27	1B	469	49	96	25	1	11	48	0	2
Xavier Paul	L	30	RF	318	36	73	13	2	9	38	4	2
Grady Sizemore	L	32	LF	322	35	69	16	2	7	31	4	2
John Hester	R	31	C	284	28	54	11	1	6	22	1	1
Zach Collier	L	24	CF	397	42	77	11	5	7	34	8	6
Nate Spears	L	30	2B	264	26	51	9	2	4	22	4	2
Russ Canzler	R	29	1B	521	59	114	27	3	14	59	2	2
Tommy Joseph	R	23	C	130	15	27	5	1	4	16	0	1
Ryan Howard	L	35	1B	449	51	93	16	1	18	77	0	0
Andres Blanco	B	31	SS	259	24	54	10	0	3	16	3	5
Koyie Hill	B	36	C	213	19	39	9	1	3	15	0	1
Leandro Castro	R	26	CF	478	52	114	22	3	7	48	10	6
Darin Mastroianni	R	29	CF	368	40	78	12	2	4	28	16	4
Clete Thomas	L	31	CF	354	37	69	16	1	7	31	8	3
Tony Gwynn Jr.	L	32	CF	299	33	61	8	3	1	18	8	5
Chase d’Arnaud	R	28	CF	404	46	81	15	7	4	34	22	8
Roman Quinn	B	22	CF	396	47	80	10	3	8	36	24	15
Cameron Perkins	R	24	LF	468	48	109	25	4	5	45	5	5
Adam Loewen	L	31	CF	257	25	49	10	0	6	36	3	2
Matt Tolbert	B	33	3B	207	20	44	5	1	0	11	4	3
Jim Murphy	R	29	1B	510	51	102	23	2	13	55	1	1
Jeff Francoeur	R	31	RF	479	51	107	21	3	12	48	7	3
Brandon Short	R	26	LF	290	28	57	13	2	4	24	4	4

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Carlos Ruiz	415	7.5%	13.0%	.111	.293	.264	.337	.375	.313
Chase Utley	507	7.9%	13.6%	.156	.279	.259	.329	.415	.323
Ben Revere	587	3.6%	8.5%	.058	.331	.303	.331	.361	.312
Maikel Franco	634	3.8%	15.9%	.187	.275	.259	.289	.446	.320
Cody Asche	556	6.8%	23.0%	.149	.315	.256	.310	.405	.312
J.P. Crawford	537	8.4%	19.2%	.115	.293	.248	.312	.363	.297
Odubel Herrera	564	5.7%	18.4%	.065	.337	.274	.317	.339	.289
Jordan Danks	462	9.5%	27.9%	.124	.308	.232	.306	.356	.295
Freddy Galvis	400	4.5%	19.5%	.152	.278	.239	.274	.391	.286
Cord Phelps	440	8.9%	18.6%	.129	.287	.245	.314	.374	.304
Cesar Hernandez	529	6.0%	20.4%	.086	.337	.268	.313	.354	.292
Domonic Brown	515	7.4%	18.4%	.178	.284	.256	.311	.434	.323
Aaron Altherr	524	5.3%	32.1%	.132	.309	.219	.265	.351	.271
Cameron Rupp	344	6.7%	32.8%	.120	.299	.211	.270	.331	.271
Rene Garcia	339	3.2%	14.2%	.081	.274	.241	.272	.322	.260
Tyler Henson	444	6.5%	32.7%	.134	.332	.230	.285	.364	.285
Darin Ruf	470	8.3%	26.8%	.163	.311	.245	.317	.408	.320
Tyson Gillies	274	4.4%	25.5%	.107	.302	.230	.278	.337	.272
Chris Nelson	445	6.3%	22.0%	.117	.305	.249	.297	.366	.290
Brian Bogusevic	391	9.0%	23.0%	.129	.294	.236	.313	.365	.303
Kelly Dugan	430	6.0%	30.7%	.138	.341	.244	.305	.382	.304
Andrew Knapp	365	5.8%	30.1%	.129	.304	.221	.271	.350	.274
Chris McGuiness	469	9.8%	22.6%	.143	.280	.230	.307	.373	.300
Xavier Paul	318	7.2%	24.5%	.151	.312	.252	.309	.403	.311
Grady Sizemore	322	7.5%	21.7%	.139	.283	.234	.295	.373	.298
John Hester	284	7.0%	28.5%	.119	.274	.208	.265	.327	.264
Zach Collier	397	6.3%	31.5%	.117	.304	.214	.277	.331	.270
Nate Spears	264	8.0%	24.6%	.106	.276	.215	.282	.321	.268
Russ Canzler	521	7.7%	24.0%	.158	.294	.240	.299	.398	.307
Tommy Joseph	130	4.6%	23.1%	.157	.261	.223	.269	.380	.284
Ryan Howard	449	9.1%	29.2%	.181	.295	.234	.310	.415	.310
Andres Blanco	259	5.4%	18.1%	.080	.270	.227	.275	.307	.248
Koyie Hill	213	6.6%	27.2%	.102	.265	.199	.251	.301	.241
Leandro Castro	478	3.1%	17.6%	.108	.293	.252	.278	.360	.279
Darin Mastroianni	368	7.1%	19.6%	.083	.285	.234	.293	.317	.279
Clete Thomas	354	7.1%	29.9%	.120	.291	.212	.270	.332	.268
Tony Gwynn Jr.	299	8.0%	17.7%	.063	.279	.228	.293	.291	.259
Chase d’Arnaud	404	5.7%	23.5%	.110	.279	.217	.269	.327	.268
Roman Quinn	396	6.3%	26.3%	.112	.290	.224	.286	.336	.275
Cameron Perkins	468	4.5%	19.2%	.109	.302	.249	.290	.358	.284
Adam Loewen	257	7.8%	31.9%	.118	.291	.208	.272	.326	.270
Matt Tolbert	207	5.8%	15.0%	.037	.277	.233	.281	.270	.241
Jim Murphy	510	7.3%	28.6%	.142	.288	.220	.282	.362	.286
Jeff Francoeur	479	4.2%	22.1%	.140	.282	.237	.273	.377	.283
Brandon Short	290	5.2%	27.2%	.109	.283	.213	.260	.322	.256

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Carlos Ruiz	415	4.7	96	2	2.5	Phil Masi
Chase Utley	507	5.1	104	2	2.5	Phil Garner
Ben Revere	587	5.1	91	-2	2.0	Alex Sanchez
Maikel Franco	634	4.7	99	-6	1.8	Ed Sprague
Cody Asche	556	4.6	96	-3	1.6	Roy Howell
J.P. Crawford	537	3.7	86	-1	1.4	Jeff Huson
Odubel Herrera	564	3.9	81	3	1.3	Manuel Lee
Jordan Danks	462	3.9	82	3	1.2	Kevin Koslofski
Freddy Galvis	400	3.8	81	1	1.1	Luis Quinones
Cord Phelps	440	4.1	89	-3	0.8	Ed Giovanola
Cesar Hernandez	529	4.0	84	-1	0.8	Manuel Lee
Domonic Brown	515	4.9	103	-5	0.8	Frank Bellino
Aaron Altherr	524	3.2	68	7	0.7	Francisco Batista
Cameron Rupp	344	3.1	65	1	0.7	Craig Faulkner
Rene Garcia	339	3.0	63	3	0.7	Cesar Devarez
Tyler Henson	444	3.7	78	0	0.6	David Howard
Darin Ruf	470	4.6	98	-4	0.5	Joe Vitiello
Tyson Gillies	274	3.3	69	4	0.5	Alexis Gomez
Chris Nelson	445	3.8	82	-2	0.4	Steve Springer
Brian Bogusevic	391	4.0	87	0	0.3	Lou Collier
Kelly Dugan	430	4.1	88	-1	0.3	Craig Cooper
Andrew Knapp	365	3.1	70	-5	0.1	Brandon Yarbrough
Chris McGuiness	469	3.9	87	2	0.1	Cody Ehlers
Xavier Paul	318	4.5	95	-4	0.1	Keith Williams
Grady Sizemore	322	3.9	83	0	0.1	Dann Howitt
John Hester	284	2.9	62	-2	0.1	Chad Moeller
Zach Collier	397	3.0	67	1	0.0	Jeff McNeely
Nate Spears	264	3.1	66	0	0.0	Paul Hoover
Russ Canzler	521	4.2	91	-1	0.0	Simon Pond
Tommy Joseph	130	3.4	77	-4	-0.1	Walt McKeel
Ryan Howard	449	4.5	98	-4	-0.1	Paul Sorrento
Andres Blanco	259	2.6	60	1	-0.1	Gary Green
Koyie Hill	213	2.5	52	0	-0.1	Tony Pena
Leandro Castro	478	3.6	75	-4	-0.1	Frank Diaz
Darin Mastroianni	368	3.5	69	-5	-0.2	Trenidad Hubbard
Clete Thomas	354	3.1	65	-2	-0.3	Colin Porter
Tony Gwynn Jr.	299	2.9	62	0	-0.3	Thurman Tucker
Chase d’Arnaud	404	3.2	64	-2	-0.3	Todd Donovan
Roman Quinn	396	3.2	71	-4	-0.3	Jeff McNeely
Cameron Perkins	468	3.6	78	0	-0.4	Ronald Crowe
Adam Loewen	257	3.0	65	-3	-0.4	Nate Murphy
Matt Tolbert	207	2.6	53	-2	-0.7	Jose Vizcaino
Jim Murphy	510	3.5	76	0	-0.8	Matt Padgett
Jeff Francoeur	479	3.7	77	-7	-1.2	Shawn Garrett
Brandon Short	290	2.7	60	-4	-1.3	Jason Aspito

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	K	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Cole Hamels	L	31	30	30	202.0	194	52	21	183	80	75
Cliff Lee	L	36	21	21	138.7	130	21	15	135	57	53
Ben Lively	R	23	23	23	112.3	104	45	13	106	56	52
Ken Giles	R	24	53	0	55.0	72	20	5	42	18	17
Jonathan Papelbon	R	34	60	0	59.3	60	14	5	51	21	20
Aaron Harang	R	37	25	25	148.0	106	54	16	157	79	74
Chad Billingsley	R	30	8	8	42.3	34	15	4	43	20	19
Andrew Oliver	L	27	53	0	63.0	82	40	6	48	27	25
Jake Diekman	L	28	69	0	66.3	79	38	5	57	29	27
Justin De Fratus	R	27	63	0	61.3	53	20	6	58	27	25
David Buchanan	R	26	25	25	141.7	87	45	17	153	78	73
Jonathan Pettibone	R	24	15	15	79.0	49	25	8	87	43	40
Miguel Gonzalez	R	28	29	13	96.7	71	35	12	98	52	49
Mike Adams	R	36	33	0	28.3	27	10	3	26	13	12
Kevin Slowey	R	31	15	7	55.0	41	14	7	61	31	29
Luis Garcia	R	28	54	0	63.3	59	30	6	59	31	29
Cesar Jimenez	L	30	46	0	60.7	47	28	5	59	30	28
Seth Rosin	R	26	38	9	79.3	61	26	11	83	44	41
Aaron Nola	R	22	19	19	106.3	81	25	17	115	62	58
Jeanmar Gomez	R	27	47	0	62.0	45	24	7	63	31	29
Zach Eflin	R	21	24	24	121.3	75	40	16	134	71	66
Tom Windle	L	23	25	25	120.0	83	52	15	129	71	66
Mario Hollands	L	26	52	0	48.3	37	22	4	48	26	24
Jerome Williams	R	33	32	15	124.7	85	39	17	134	72	67
Ethan Martin	R	26	47	0	61.0	55	34	7	58	32	30
Shawn Camp	R	39	25	0	28.3	20	8	5	32	17	16
Adam Morgan	L	25	18	18	88.3	63	36	13	97	55	51
Severino Gonzalez	R	22	26	22	132.0	97	36	22	144	79	74
Hector Neris	R	26	48	3	80.3	72	33	12	80	45	42
Adam Loewen	L	31	18	18	97.0	67	63	11	100	60	56
Stephen Shackleford	R	26	43	0	55.0	44	32	6	55	31	29
Phillippe Aumont	R	26	50	0	60.0	61	47	6	56	34	32
Matt Hoffman	L	26	41	0	44.0	34	21	6	47	27	25
Jesse Biddle	L	23	22	22	107.0	105	66	18	105	67	63
Jo-Jo Reyes	L	30	18	14	81.3	43	34	12	94	54	50
Elvis Araujo	L	23	45	0	48.7	40	32	7	50	31	29
Sean O’Sullivan	R	27	27	22	137.0	81	51	19	154	86	80
Joely Rodriguez	L	23	27	22	122.7	71	49	17	140	78	73
Paul Clemens	R	27	33	12	93.7	61	39	15	104	61	57
Nefi Ogando	R	26	43	0	60.7	43	36	8	65	39	36
Chris Bootcheck	R	36	20	12	68.3	41	36	13	80	51	48

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Cole Hamels	202.0	841	23.1%	6.2%	.285	3.34	3.50	89	93
Cliff Lee	138.7	572	22.7%	3.7%	.297	3.44	3.29	92	88
Ben Lively	112.3	488	21.3%	9.2%	.291	4.17	4.28	111	114
Ken Giles	55.0	227	31.7%	8.8%	.289	2.78	2.97	74	79
Jonathan Papelbon	59.3	243	24.7%	5.8%	.286	3.03	3.15	81	84
Aaron Harang	148.0	655	16.2%	8.2%	.296	4.50	4.31	120	115
Chad Billingsley	42.3	185	18.4%	8.1%	.298	4.04	4.02	108	107
Andrew Oliver	63.0	277	29.6%	14.4%	.288	3.57	3.85	95	103
Jake Diekman	66.3	294	26.9%	12.9%	.308	3.66	3.54	98	94
Justin De Fratus	61.3	262	20.2%	7.6%	.291	3.67	3.84	98	102
David Buchanan	141.7	623	14.0%	7.2%	.292	4.64	4.70	124	125
Jonathan Pettibone	79.0	349	14.0%	7.2%	.299	4.56	4.33	122	115
Miguel Gonzalez	96.7	423	16.8%	8.3%	.286	4.56	4.56	122	122
Mike Adams	28.3	121	22.3%	8.3%	.288	3.81	3.80	102	101
Kevin Slowey	55.0	240	17.1%	5.8%	.309	4.75	4.36	127	116
Luis Garcia	63.3	279	21.2%	10.8%	.293	4.12	4.15	110	111
Cesar Jimenez	60.7	269	17.5%	10.4%	.290	4.15	4.27	111	114
Seth Rosin	79.3	347	17.6%	7.5%	.294	4.65	4.63	124	123
Aaron Nola	106.3	459	17.7%	5.4%	.297	4.91	4.69	131	125
Jeanmar Gomez	62.0	273	16.5%	8.8%	.287	4.21	4.25	112	113
Zach Eflin	121.3	538	13.9%	7.4%	.295	4.90	4.88	131	130
Tom Windle	120.0	541	15.3%	9.6%	.296	4.95	4.96	132	132
Mario Hollands	48.3	215	17.2%	10.2%	.292	4.47	4.11	119	110
Jerome Williams	124.7	547	15.5%	7.1%	.292	4.84	4.68	129	125
Ethan Martin	61.0	275	20.0%	12.4%	.290	4.43	4.72	118	126
Shawn Camp	28.3	125	16.0%	6.4%	.297	5.08	4.89	135	130
Adam Morgan	88.3	398	15.8%	9.0%	.300	5.20	5.14	139	137
Severino Gonzalez	132.0	576	16.8%	6.3%	.295	5.05	4.94	135	132
Hector Neris	80.3	354	20.3%	9.3%	.293	4.71	4.80	126	128
Adam Loewen	97.0	454	14.8%	13.9%	.290	5.20	5.49	139	146
Stephen Shackleford	55.0	252	17.5%	12.7%	.293	4.75	4.83	127	129
Phillippe Aumont	60.0	283	21.6%	16.6%	.303	4.80	5.03	128	134
Matt Hoffman	44.0	200	17.0%	10.5%	.299	5.11	4.92	136	131
Jesse Biddle	107.0	492	21.3%	13.4%	.293	5.30	5.51	141	147
Jo-Jo Reyes	81.3	372	11.6%	9.1%	.295	5.53	5.53	147	147
Elvis Araujo	48.7	228	17.5%	14.0%	.294	5.36	5.46	143	146
Sean O’Sullivan	137.0	616	13.1%	8.3%	.295	5.26	5.13	140	137
Joely Rodriguez	122.7	557	12.7%	8.8%	.298	5.36	5.25	143	140
Paul Clemens	93.7	424	14.4%	9.2%	.293	5.48	5.39	146	144
Nefi Ogando	60.7	283	15.2%	12.7%	.297	5.34	5.54	142	148
Chris Bootcheck	68.3	321	12.8%	11.2%	.295	6.32	6.30	169	168

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Cole Hamels	202.0	8.64	2.32	0.94	112	3.7	Vida Blue
Cliff Lee	138.7	8.44	1.36	0.97	108	2.4	John Candelaria
Ben Lively	112.3	8.33	3.61	1.04	90	0.9	Jimmy Journell
Ken Giles	55.0	11.78	3.27	0.82	134	0.8	Jose Valverde
Jonathan Papelbon	59.3	9.11	2.12	0.76	123	0.7	Mike Maddux
Aaron Harang	148.0	6.45	3.28	0.97	83	0.5	Rick Sutcliffe
Chad Billingsley	42.3	7.23	3.19	0.85	92	0.4	Charlie Puleo
Andrew Oliver	63.0	11.71	5.71	0.86	104	0.3	Ricky Pickett
Jake Diekman	66.3	10.72	5.16	0.68	102	0.3	Ricky Pickett
Justin De Fratus	61.3	7.78	2.94	0.88	102	0.2	Mark Brown
David Buchanan	141.7	5.53	2.86	1.08	80	0.2	Jon Adkins
Jonathan Pettibone	79.0	5.58	2.85	0.91	82	0.2	Kirk McDonald
Miguel Gonzalez	96.7	6.61	3.26	1.12	82	0.1	Craig Weissmann
Mike Adams	28.3	8.59	3.18	0.95	98	0.1	Mike Fetters
Kevin Slowey	55.0	6.71	2.29	1.15	79	-0.1	Sam Arrington
Luis Garcia	63.3	8.39	4.27	0.85	90	-0.1	Derrick Turnbow
Cesar Jimenez	60.7	6.97	4.15	0.74	90	-0.2	Matt Whisenant
Seth Rosin	79.3	6.92	2.95	1.25	80	-0.2	Bryan Corey
Aaron Nola	106.3	6.86	2.12	1.44	76	-0.2	Mark DiFelice
Jeanmar Gomez	62.0	6.53	3.48	1.02	89	-0.2	Kenny Greer
Zach Eflin	121.3	5.56	2.97	1.19	76	-0.2	Jason Karnuth
Tom Windle	120.0	6.23	3.90	1.13	75	-0.3	John Habyan
Mario Hollands	48.3	6.89	4.10	0.75	83	-0.3	Mark Dempsey
Jerome Williams	124.7	6.13	2.81	1.23	77	-0.3	Pete Smith
Ethan Martin	61.0	8.11	5.02	1.03	84	-0.4	Jason Gilfillan
Shawn Camp	28.3	6.36	2.54	1.59	73	-0.4	Boom-Boom Beck
Adam Morgan	88.3	6.42	3.67	1.33	72	-0.5	Tommy Phelps
Severino Gonzalez	132.0	6.61	2.45	1.50	74	-0.5	Rusty Meacham
Hector Neris	80.3	8.07	3.70	1.34	79	-0.5	Rob Woodward
Adam Loewen	97.0	6.22	5.85	1.02	72	-0.5	Steve Avery
Stephen Shackleford	55.0	7.20	5.24	0.98	79	-0.6	Pete Sikaras
Phillippe Aumont	60.0	9.15	7.05	0.90	78	-0.7	Bill Bene
Matt Hoffman	44.0	6.95	4.30	1.23	73	-0.7	Bob Ayrault
Jesse Biddle	107.0	8.83	5.55	1.51	70	-0.7	Daniel Haigwood
Jo-Jo Reyes	81.3	4.76	3.76	1.33	67	-0.9	Jimmy Williams
Elvis Araujo	48.7	7.39	5.91	1.29	70	-0.9	Casey DeHart
Sean O’Sullivan	137.0	5.32	3.35	1.25	71	-0.9	Jim Magrane
Joely Rodriguez	122.7	5.21	3.59	1.25	70	-1.0	Dusty Bergman
Paul Clemens	93.7	5.86	3.75	1.44	68	-1.1	Scott Shoemaker
Nefi Ogando	60.7	6.38	5.34	1.19	70	-1.1	Matt Smith
Chris Bootcheck	68.3	5.40	4.74	1.71	59	-1.5	Bobby Witt

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.