2015 ZiPS Projections – Pittsburgh Pirates

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Oakland / San Diego / San Francisco / St. Louis / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Texas / Washington.

Batters
On multiple occasions over the course of Woody Allen’s 1999 film Sweet and Lowdown, jazz guitarist Emmet Ray (played by Sean Penn) announces that he’s the best in the world “except [for] this gypsy in France” (understood to be Django Reinhardt). It’s not particularly daring to suggest that, likewise, Andrew McCutchen is the best non-pitcher in baseball — except for this center fielder in Los Angeles. McCutchen and Mike Trout possess largely similar skill sets; it’s just, in most cases, Trout possesses them a little harder. Even still, McCutchen’s projection (659 PA, 6.3 WAR) is among the best published so far in this series.

Of some interest is ZiPS’ forecast for recent Korean signing Jung-ho Kang (502 PA, 1.5 WAR), which is slightly (although not substantively) less strong than incumbent Jordy Mercer’s projection (504 PA, 1.9 WAR) for 2015. A potential area of concern for Kang appears to be his ability to make contact. To wit: ZiPS projects Pedro Alvarez to post a 30.0% strikeout rate; Kang, a slightly higher 30.5% mark.

Pitchers
Pittsburgh’s success in 2014 was almost entirely a product of the club’s offensive production. Pirates pitchers recorded the second-lowest collective WAR among all major-league clubs and Pirates starters were the worst in the majors by that measure. Right-hander Gerrit Cole’s roughly two wins rendered him the ace of the staff. Mark Melancon, a reliever, produced the second-best mark among the club’s pitchers.

In a vacuum, ZiPS’ projections for Pittsburgh’s starters aren’t particularly encouraging. In the context of last season, however, there’s cause for (muted) optimism. Cole and Francisco Liriano are both forecast to approach the three-win mark. If both they and also A.J. Burnett all reach their projected WAR figures, that triumvirate would nearly match the entire output of the club’s 2014 pitching staff.

Bench/Prospects
Outfielder Keon Broxton was acquired last March by Pittsburgh in a low-profile move for a player to be named later (the identity of whom isn’t immediately obvious by way of a haphazard internet search). ZiPS projects him to produce the best line (483 PA, 0.9 WAR) of all Pittsburgh’s rookie-eligible players (besides Kang) — tied with more celebrated prospect, infielder Alen Hanson (560 PA, 0.9 WAR). Among pitching prospects, Jameson Taillon (111.1 IP, 0.9 WAR) receives the most encouraging projection — indistinct, really, from either Jeff Locke‘s or Vance Worley’s.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Pirates, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Andrew McCutchen	R	28	CF	659	96	166	34	6	24	88	20	8
Starling Marte	R	26	LF	607	85	151	30	10	14	59	30	13
Gregory Polanco	L	23	CF	612	86	145	27	5	14	73	26	9
Neil Walker	B	29	2B	573	72	136	27	3	18	74	4	3
Josh Harrison	R	27	3B	482	66	128	29	7	10	52	16	6
Pedro Alvarez	L	28	3B	523	57	109	19	2	25	76	4	1
Jordy Mercer	R	28	SS	504	54	117	27	3	10	50	4	3
Jung-ho Kang	R	28	SS	502	57	104	26	2	14	57	5	3
Francisco Cervelli	R	29	C	211	22	47	10	1	2	18	2	0
Keon Broxton	R	25	CF	483	48	94	17	5	9	42	14	6
Alen Hanson	B	22	SS	560	59	126	23	11	10	60	20	13
Tony Sanchez	R	27	C	403	40	81	20	0	10	44	1	1
Pedro Florimon	B	28	SS	464	45	96	20	3	5	39	14	5
Jake Elmore	R	28	2B	433	44	94	19	2	2	33	12	7
Sean Rodriguez	R	30	2B	295	34	63	16	3	6	39	3	2
Jose Tabata	R	26	RF	432	47	104	21	3	3	37	6	6
Gorkys Hernandez	R	27	CF	421	43	89	17	3	3	32	16	6
Andrew Lambo	L	26	RF	392	47	87	19	2	13	48	3	2
Josh Bell	B	22	RF	527	59	126	25	3	9	55	6	5
Chris Stewart	R	33	C	223	19	47	8	0	1	17	2	1
Deibinson Romero	R	28	3B	479	47	99	22	2	8	44	1	1
Steve Lombardozzi Jr.	B	26	2B	420	40	104	16	3	2	30	7	4
Sebastian Valle	R	24	C	346	33	75	14	1	7	36	0	1
Corey Hart	R	33	RF	415	47	94	20	2	11	46	3	1
Nevin Ashley	R	30	C	268	26	50	12	1	2	24	1	1
Gaby Sanchez	R	31	1B	364	38	76	20	0	8	41	2	0
Brent Morel	R	28	3B	413	41	88	19	2	4	37	7	2
Justin Sellers	R	29	SS	363	35	77	16	2	3	31	2	1
Elias Diaz	R	24	C	349	35	73	15	1	4	30	3	4
Willy Garcia	R	22	RF	506	51	105	22	5	15	56	8	6
Wilkin Castillo	B	31	C	200	18	43	8	3	2	18	2	1
Drew Maggi	R	26	3B	428	43	84	13	2	2	28	19	11
Jaff Decker	L	25	LF	422	48	79	20	2	7	39	5	5
Mel Rojas Jr.	B	25	CF	535	53	114	18	7	6	47	10	8
Robert Andino	R	31	2B	433	41	90	16	1	5	33	4	3
Gustavo Nunez	B	27	SS	263	25	56	7	2	1	18	6	5
Omir Santos	R	34	C	134	10	28	6	1	1	10	0	0
Blake Davis	L	31	2B	319	26	69	12	3	2	26	4	2
Michael Martinez	B	32	2B	326	30	68	8	4	2	26	4	3
Stetson Allie	R	24	1B	448	49	82	16	1	13	44	5	4
Gift Ngoepe	B	25	2B	442	40	75	12	6	5	31	9	7
Andy Vasquez	L	27	LF	325	31	69	12	3	5	29	10	8

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Andrew McCutchen	659	11.8%	18.4%	.208	.333	.293	.384	.501	.379
Starling Marte	607	4.9%	23.9%	.166	.345	.273	.329	.439	.337
Gregory Polanco	612	7.2%	17.6%	.142	.296	.259	.313	.401	.317
Neil Walker	573	8.2%	16.4%	.170	.293	.266	.336	.436	.337
Josh Harrison	482	3.7%	14.1%	.162	.315	.284	.319	.446	.334
Pedro Alvarez	523	9.2%	30.0%	.208	.289	.231	.304	.439	.321
Jordy Mercer	504	6.0%	17.1%	.136	.290	.254	.304	.390	.295
Jung-ho Kang	502	7.6%	30.5%	.159	.313	.230	.299	.389	.303
Francisco Cervelli	211	7.6%	19.0%	.097	.308	.251	.329	.348	.307
Keon Broxton	483	7.0%	34.4%	.121	.314	.212	.270	.333	.268
Alen Hanson	560	4.5%	21.6%	.143	.292	.240	.276	.383	.285
Tony Sanchez	403	7.4%	25.8%	.138	.282	.223	.291	.361	.291
Pedro Florimon	464	6.9%	25.6%	.097	.302	.227	.283	.324	.271
Jake Elmore	433	8.8%	14.1%	.075	.282	.244	.314	.319	.283
Sean Rodriguez	295	6.1%	20.3%	.153	.286	.240	.303	.393	.303
Jose Tabata	432	6.5%	14.1%	.091	.305	.265	.322	.356	.300
Gorkys Hernandez	421	6.7%	23.3%	.084	.305	.234	.293	.318	.275
Andrew Lambo	392	6.6%	25.0%	.173	.296	.242	.297	.415	.309
Josh Bell	527	5.5%	17.1%	.118	.296	.256	.299	.374	.295
Chris Stewart	223	5.8%	13.5%	.055	.269	.235	.292	.290	.258
Deibinson Romero	479	7.7%	20.3%	.116	.275	.229	.296	.345	.288
Steve Lombardozzi Jr.	420	3.8%	11.9%	.072	.297	.265	.296	.337	.277
Sebastian Valle	346	2.9%	26.6%	.112	.289	.227	.247	.339	.253
Corey Hart	415	6.7%	19.8%	.150	.289	.249	.309	.399	.312
Nevin Ashley	268	6.7%	21.6%	.083	.262	.207	.274	.290	.255
Gaby Sanchez	364	9.9%	18.1%	.137	.271	.237	.316	.374	.308
Brent Morel	413	6.1%	21.1%	.092	.287	.230	.280	.322	.270
Justin Sellers	363	5.8%	15.4%	.088	.269	.233	.284	.321	.269
Elias Diaz	349	6.0%	18.6%	.091	.271	.228	.277	.319	.263
Willy Garcia	506	3.6%	38.1%	.160	.327	.219	.249	.379	.271
Wilkin Castillo	200	3.5%	16.0%	.105	.263	.228	.258	.333	.255
Drew Maggi	428	7.7%	20.1%	.061	.278	.221	.293	.282	.260
Jaff Decker	422	10.4%	24.4%	.122	.275	.214	.301	.336	.281
Mel Rojas Jr.	535	6.0%	23.9%	.101	.298	.231	.281	.332	.269
Robert Andino	433	5.3%	20.8%	.082	.274	.224	.266	.306	.253
Gustavo Nunez	263	4.2%	20.9%	.056	.288	.227	.263	.283	.240
Omir Santos	134	2.2%	21.6%	.088	.276	.222	.242	.310	.240
Blake Davis	319	3.8%	18.8%	.080	.278	.228	.259	.308	.249
Michael Martinez	326	4.9%	15.6%	.073	.263	.227	.265	.300	.245
Stetson Allie	448	9.6%	35.5%	.142	.301	.206	.286	.348	.283
Gift Ngoepe	442	7.5%	35.5%	.098	.294	.188	.255	.286	.241
Andy Vasquez	325	3.1%	27.7%	.107	.298	.223	.249	.330	.248

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Andrew McCutchen	659	7.4	148	-2	6.3	Duke Snider
Starling Marte	607	5.4	115	10	3.6	Matt Kemp
Gregory Polanco	612	4.7	100	6	3.3	Milton Bradley
Neil Walker	573	5.4	117	-2	3.2	Ken McMullen
Josh Harrison	482	5.5	114	2	3.0	Joe Randa
Pedro Alvarez	523	4.7	107	-5	1.9	Mike Pagliarulo
Jordy Mercer	504	4.3	95	1	1.9	Brendan Harris
Jung-ho Kang	502	4.1	93	-5	1.5	Mike Blowers
Francisco Cervelli	211	4.2	92	-1	0.9	Mike Fitzgerald
Keon Broxton	483	3.1	70	7	0.9	Damon Mashore
Alen Hanson	560	3.6	84	-5	0.9	Cristian Guzman
Tony Sanchez	403	3.6	83	-6	0.8	Eric Helfand
Pedro Florimon	464	3.3	72	1	0.8	Julius McDougal
Jake Elmore	433	3.5	80	1	0.8	Matt Erickson
Sean Rodriguez	295	4.2	96	-3	0.7	Matt Macri
Jose Tabata	432	4.0	92	2	0.6	Alex Ochoa
Gorkys Hernandez	421	3.4	73	1	0.5	Rashad Eldridge
Andrew Lambo	392	4.4	99	-2	0.5	Dave Hudgens
Josh Bell	527	4.0	89	2	0.5	Ryan Sweeney
Chris Stewart	223	3.0	66	1	0.5	Chris Ashby
Deibinson Romero	479	3.6	81	-3	0.4	Brad Seitzer
Steve Lombardozzi Jr.	420	3.6	79	0	0.4	Francisco Matos
Sebastian Valle	346	2.9	64	2	0.4	Johnny Cuevas
Corey Hart	415	4.5	99	-5	0.4	Russ Morman
Nevin Ashley	268	2.7	60	1	0.3	Tom Nieto
Gaby Sanchez	364	4.2	95	0	0.3	Jim Vatcher
Brent Morel	413	3.2	70	1	0.3	Clay Bellinger
Justin Sellers	363	3.2	71	-2	0.2	Juan Castro
Elias Diaz	349	2.9	68	-3	0.2	Damian Miller
Willy Garcia	506	3.2	75	8	0.1	Rob Deer
Wilkin Castillo	200	3.0	66	-2	0.0	Luis Rodriguez
Drew Maggi	428	2.8	64	1	-0.1	Charles Gipson
Jaff Decker	422	3.3	80	0	-0.1	Bo Dodson
Mel Rojas Jr.	535	3.1	73	-3	-0.2	Jalal Leach
Robert Andino	433	2.8	62	2	-0.3	Chris Petersen
Gustavo Nunez	263	2.4	55	0	-0.3	Luke Sable
Omir Santos	134	2.6	55	-3	-0.4	Frank Charles
Blake Davis	319	2.8	60	0	-0.4	Tripp Cromer
Michael Martinez	326	2.7	60	-1	-0.6	Pablo Martinez
Stetson Allie	448	3.3	79	0	-0.6	Chris Haas
Gift Ngoepe	442	2.3	53	1	-0.7	Yuri Sanchez
Andy Vasquez	325	2.7	62	-4	-1.4	Basilio Cabrera

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	K	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Francisco Liriano	L	31	29	29	163.7	172	67	12	137	63	59
Gerrit Cole	R	24	28	28	170.7	160	48	13	157	67	63
A.J. Burnett	R	38	28	28	179.3	157	72	13	169	83	78
Mark Melancon	R	30	67	0	66.7	66	12	4	56	19	18
Charlie Morton	R	31	22	22	127.3	94	43	10	125	59	55
Vance Worley	R	27	22	21	132.3	90	31	11	141	62	58
Jameson Taillon	R	23	19	18	111.3	84	39	9	112	52	49
Jeff Locke	L	27	29	29	164.0	124	63	18	163	81	76
Tony Watson	L	30	70	0	66.0	64	16	5	56	22	21
Tyler Glasnow	R	21	24	24	110.0	121	67	12	93	54	50
Radhames Liz	R	32	25	22	117.7	83	49	10	117	58	54
Antonio Bastardo	L	29	60	0	54.0	64	25	4	42	19	18
Brandon Cumpton	R	26	27	23	138.7	81	44	11	149	71	66
Nick Kingham	R	23	25	25	136.0	95	47	14	139	70	65
Casey Sadler	R	24	27	23	134.3	78	33	14	143	68	64
Rafael Perez	L	33	24	7	61.0	43	13	6	62	28	26
Adam Wilk	L	27	26	24	141.0	84	36	16	152	74	69
Stolmy Pimentel	R	25	28	15	98.7	72	39	10	100	50	47
John Holdzkom	R	27	36	0	37.3	44	21	3	30	15	14
Jared Hughes	R	29	62	0	65.3	44	22	5	63	28	26
Adrian Sampson	R	23	26	26	149.3	84	34	18	164	80	75
Brad Lincoln	R	30	40	10	90.3	71	36	10	90	47	44
Arquimedes Caminero	R	28	47	0	62.3	58	28	6	58	29	27
Deolis Guerra	R	26	28	1	44.0	34	16	4	43	21	20
Bobby LaFromboise	L	29	59	0	64.3	47	23	5	64	30	28
Rob Scahill	R	28	57	0	78.3	63	30	7	76	36	34
Josh Kinney	R	36	41	0	49.7	41	20	5	48	24	22
Josh Lindblom	R	28	33	14	95.0	56	31	11	101	51	48
Josh Wall	R	28	49	0	54.0	41	23	4	54	27	25
Clayton Richard	L	31	13	13	74.0	34	16	11	85	43	40
Blake Wood	R	29	36	0	39.3	32	25	4	38	21	20
Jeremy Bleich	L	28	23	12	74.7	45	36	8	80	44	41
Collin Balester	R	29	20	2	31.3	21	15	5	34	20	19
Wilfredo Boscan	R	25	24	7	70.7	38	25	10	80	43	40
Jarrett Grube	R	33	25	24	129.7	79	45	19	142	78	73
Charlie Leesman	L	28	21	18	89.7	61	47	11	98	57	53
Angel Sanchez	R	25	28	23	125.7	75	59	19	143	85	79

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Francisco Liriano	163.7	695	24.7%	9.6%	.283	3.24	3.25	89	89
Gerrit Cole	170.7	717	22.3%	6.7%	.296	3.32	3.25	91	89
A.J. Burnett	179.3	779	20.2%	9.2%	.297	3.91	3.72	107	102
Mark Melancon	66.7	268	24.6%	4.5%	.284	2.43	2.59	67	71
Charlie Morton	127.3	550	17.1%	7.8%	.296	3.89	4.02	107	110
Vance Worley	132.3	569	15.8%	5.4%	.302	3.94	3.67	108	101
Jameson Taillon	111.3	485	17.3%	8.0%	.297	3.96	3.86	109	106
Jeff Locke	164.0	718	17.3%	8.8%	.286	4.17	4.30	115	118
Tony Watson	66.0	270	23.7%	5.9%	.283	2.86	3.11	79	85
Tyler Glasnow	110.0	490	24.7%	13.7%	.286	4.09	4.39	112	121
Radhames Liz	117.7	519	16.0%	9.4%	.288	4.13	4.23	114	116
Antonio Bastardo	54.0	229	27.9%	10.9%	.284	3.00	3.08	82	85
Brandon Cumpton	138.7	609	13.3%	7.2%	.297	4.28	4.12	118	113
Nick Kingham	136.0	594	16.0%	7.9%	.291	4.30	4.29	118	118
Casey Sadler	134.3	579	13.5%	5.7%	.289	4.29	4.22	118	116
Rafael Perez	61.0	258	16.7%	5.0%	.290	3.84	3.76	106	103
Adam Wilk	141.0	611	13.7%	5.9%	.291	4.40	4.29	121	118
Stolmy Pimentel	98.7	435	16.5%	9.0%	.291	4.29	4.32	118	119
John Holdzkom	37.3	163	27.0%	12.9%	.288	3.37	3.61	93	99
Jared Hughes	65.3	281	15.7%	7.8%	.283	3.58	3.86	98	106
Adrian Sampson	149.3	646	13.0%	5.3%	.291	4.52	4.42	124	122
Brad Lincoln	90.3	397	17.9%	9.1%	.291	4.38	4.35	120	120
Arquimedes Caminero	62.3	273	21.3%	10.3%	.292	3.90	3.94	107	108
Deolis Guerra	44.0	191	17.8%	8.4%	.291	4.09	4.09	112	112
Bobby LaFromboise	64.3	280	16.8%	8.2%	.292	3.92	3.78	108	104
Rob Scahill	78.3	341	18.5%	8.8%	.292	3.91	3.97	107	109
Josh Kinney	49.7	217	18.9%	9.2%	.290	3.99	4.02	110	111
Josh Lindblom	95.0	417	13.4%	7.4%	.287	4.55	4.59	125	126
Josh Wall	54.0	239	17.2%	9.6%	.298	4.17	3.93	115	108
Clayton Richard	74.0	323	10.5%	5.0%	.285	4.86	4.86	134	134
Blake Wood	39.3	181	17.7%	13.8%	.286	4.58	4.68	126	129
Jeremy Bleich	74.7	340	13.2%	10.6%	.291	4.94	4.91	136	135
Collin Balester	31.3	143	14.7%	10.5%	.293	5.46	5.42	150	149
Wilfredo Boscan	70.7	317	12.0%	7.9%	.292	5.09	5.11	140	140
Jarrett Grube	129.7	576	13.7%	7.8%	.289	5.07	5.04	139	139
Charlie Leesman	89.7	414	14.7%	11.3%	.300	5.32	5.13	146	141
Angel Sanchez	125.7	579	13.0%	10.2%	.297	5.66	5.53	156	152

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Francisco Liriano	163.7	9.46	3.68	0.66	111	2.8	Al Leiter
Gerrit Cole	170.7	8.44	2.53	0.69	108	2.8	Kevin Millwood
A.J. Burnett	179.3	7.88	3.61	0.65	92	1.6	Mike Torrez
Mark Melancon	66.7	8.91	1.62	0.54	148	1.2	J.J. Putz
Charlie Morton	127.3	6.65	3.04	0.71	92	1.1	Omar Olivares
Vance Worley	132.3	6.12	2.11	0.75	91	1.1	Jason Rakers
Jameson Taillon	111.3	6.79	3.15	0.73	91	0.9	Ed Wojna
Jeff Locke	164.0	6.80	3.46	0.99	86	0.9	Rafael Roque
Tony Watson	66.0	8.73	2.18	0.68	125	0.8	Gabe White
Tyler Glasnow	110.0	9.90	5.48	0.98	88	0.7	A.J. Burnett
Radhames Liz	117.7	6.35	3.75	0.76	87	0.7	Russ Ortiz
Antonio Bastardo	54.0	10.67	4.17	0.67	120	0.6	Armando Almanza
Brandon Cumpton	138.7	5.26	2.86	0.71	84	0.5	Jake Joseph
Nick Kingham	136.0	6.29	3.11	0.93	83	0.5	Shane Reynolds
Casey Sadler	134.3	5.23	2.21	0.94	84	0.5	Mike Lincoln
Rafael Perez	61.0	6.34	1.92	0.89	94	0.4	Mike Jeffcoat
Adam Wilk	141.0	5.36	2.30	1.02	81	0.3	Heath Phillips
Stolmy Pimentel	98.7	6.57	3.56	0.91	84	0.3	Anthony Moreno
John Holdzkom	37.3	10.62	5.07	0.72	106	0.2	Steve Andrade
Jared Hughes	65.3	6.06	3.03	0.69	100	0.2	Sean Green
Adrian Sampson	149.3	5.06	2.05	1.09	79	0.1	Sean Green
Brad Lincoln	90.3	7.08	3.59	1.00	82	-0.1	Tom Kramer
Arquimedes Caminero	62.3	8.38	4.04	0.87	92	-0.1	Brian Mallette
Deolis Guerra	44.0	6.95	3.27	0.82	88	-0.1	Frank DiPino
Bobby LaFromboise	64.3	6.58	3.22	0.70	92	-0.1	Carmen Cali
Rob Scahill	78.3	7.24	3.45	0.80	92	-0.1	Ryan Cameron
Josh Kinney	49.7	7.42	3.62	0.91	90	-0.1	Don Aase
Josh Lindblom	95.0	5.31	2.94	1.04	79	-0.1	Wes Wilkerson
Josh Wall	54.0	6.83	3.83	0.67	86	-0.3	Ryan Baker
Clayton Richard	74.0	4.14	1.95	1.34	74	-0.3	Lee Gronkiewicz
Blake Wood	39.3	7.33	5.73	0.92	78	-0.4	Bart Evans
Jeremy Bleich	74.7	5.42	4.34	0.96	73	-0.4	Jimmy Williams
Collin Balester	31.3	6.04	4.31	1.44	66	-0.5	Gary Neibauer
Wilfredo Boscan	70.7	4.84	3.18	1.27	70	-0.7	Julio Solano
Jarrett Grube	129.7	5.48	3.12	1.32	71	-0.8	R.A. Dickey
Charlie Leesman	89.7	6.12	4.72	1.10	67	-0.9	Steve Smyth
Angel Sanchez	125.7	5.37	4.22	1.36	63	-1.8	David Walters

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.