2015 ZiPS Projections – Seattle Mariners

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Seattle Mariners. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York NL / Oakland / San Diego / San Francisco / St. Louis / Tampa Bay / Washington

Batters
In the first year of his 10-year and $240 million contract with the M’s, Robinson Cano served as a one-man illustration of park effects, recording almost precisely the same batting-average and on-base figures as the previous season with the Yankees, but producing only half the home runs. (We’ll ignore for the moment that he actually hit more homers at Safeco than on the road, as that would disturb the narrative.) The result was a park-adjusted offensive line roughly approximating 2013’s. ZiPS calls for another five-win season in 2015 despite a home-run total somewhere below 20.

On the topic of park effects, offseason acquisition Nelson Cruz moves from a home field that inflates right-handed homers by roughly 8% to one that suppresses them by about 6%. That move plus age plus mere regression conspire to produce a forecast of 29 home runs for Cruz in 2015 after last season’s total of 40.

Pitchers
Seattle’s prospect triumvirate of Danny Hultzen, James Paxton, and Taijuan Walker have had some difficulty in all graduating to the majors together. Not entirely surprising, that, given the relative fragility of pitchers. The latter two of them, however, appear prepared to join Seattle’s opening-day rotation this year. Of some note, perhaps, is what might appear to be a conservative projection (113.0 IP, 1.2 WAR) for Paxton — especially in light of how he produced roughly the same WAR figure last year in 40 fewer innings. ZiPS considers not only that 2014 season, however, but also those 2012 and -13 ones in which he was barely recording 2:1 strikeout-to-walk ratios against Triple-A competition.

Within the bullpen, it appears as though Fernando Rodney will once again handle closer duties. According to ZiPS, however, the most effective reliever on a per-inning basis is likely to be Danny Farquhar. His projected 77 ERA- — that is, park- and league-adjusted ERA relative to league average — is the second-best figure on the club after Felix Hernandez’s 70 ERA- mark.

Bench/Prospects
While Brad Miller (555 PA, 2.3 WAR) appears likely to begin the season as the club’s starting shortstop, Chris Taylor (501 PA, 2.3 WAR) is almost a carbon copy in terms of win-production according to ZiPS. Recently signed career minor-leaguer Shawn O’Malley (421 PA, 0.9 WAR) apparently also has some value at short, should the previous two lose time to injury or ineffectiveness. Among pitchers, there’s less depth, with Roenis Elias (139.2 IP, 0.6 WAR) serving as the most immediate insurance for the rotation.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Mariners, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Robinson Cano	L	32	2B	663	80	178	37	2	17	85	7	2
Kyle Seager	L	27	3B	658	79	155	31	3	21	88	9	5
Nelson Cruz	R	34	RF	612	68	139	27	1	29	83	6	4
Brad Miller	L	25	SS	555	72	125	21	5	12	55	8	4
Chris Taylor	R	24	SS	501	61	116	21	4	3	38	18	6
Austin Jackson	R	28	CF	659	78	145	27	7	9	45	14	6
Mike Zunino	R	24	C	491	62	97	19	2	17	58	1	2
Dustin Ackley	L	27	LF	598	79	135	27	4	12	62	7	3
Seth Smith	L	32	LF	458	54	99	24	2	11	45	2	1
Shawn O’Malley	B	27	SS	421	44	84	11	5	3	27	14	4
Tyler Marlette	R	22	C	377	41	82	16	1	5	35	7	4
D.J. Peterson	R	23	3B	463	56	101	18	0	14	52	4	1
Justin Ruggiano	R	33	RF	359	40	77	15	1	11	40	8	5
Logan Morrison	L	27	1B	432	49	94	19	2	13	50	3	1
Jesus Sucre	R	27	C	252	22	56	8	1	1	18	1	1
John Hicks	R	25	C	369	40	74	13	2	4	32	8	4
Jack Marder	R	25	2B	304	34	63	10	2	4	25	5	3
Jabari Blash	R	25	RF	442	52	86	15	2	13	44	8	6
Ketel Marte	B	21	SS	575	61	134	22	4	3	42	19	10
Mike Dowd	R	25	C	269	25	56	7	1	2	19	1	1
Patrick Kivlehan	R	25	3B	529	57	113	19	3	9	50	8	3
Willie Bloomquist	R	37	SS	149	16	39	5	1	1	14	0	1
Jack Reinheimer	R	22	SS	512	54	112	15	2	2	34	21	11
Carlos Rivero	R	27	3B	484	44	104	19	1	7	39	2	3
Austin Wilson	R	23	RF	318	36	66	13	1	8	34	2	3
Nate Tenbrink	L	28	3B	253	30	47	9	1	5	22	4	2
Ji-Man Choi	L	24	1B	389	46	81	14	2	8	36	1	3
Steven Baron	R	24	C	296	24	55	11	1	1	20	5	2
Stefen Romero	R	26	RF	458	54	104	19	3	12	51	5	6
James Jones	L	26	CF	502	61	110	16	7	4	33	23	7
Jesus Montero	R	25	1B	441	45	100	18	1	12	50	0	1
Endy Chavez	L	37	RF	335	30	79	12	1	2	23	3	5
Julio Morban	L	23	RF	338	35	71	13	3	4	29	3	1
Xavier Nady	R	36	LF	259	24	52	9	0	5	22	1	0
Gabriel Guerrero	R	21	RF	581	60	131	19	2	10	48	12	6
Leury Bonilla	R	30	3B	300	27	58	9	1	1	19	4	5
Jordy Lara	R	24	1B	493	51	104	20	2	9	47	2	2
Burt Reynolds	R	26	1B	377	34	59	12	2	7	31	9	7

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Robinson Cano	663	8.4%	12.7%	.154	.323	.299	.363	.453	.346
Kyle Seager	658	8.1%	17.6%	.169	.291	.261	.327	.430	.333
Nelson Cruz	612	7.4%	23.4%	.208	.282	.250	.309	.458	.332
Brad Miller	555	7.7%	21.3%	.133	.300	.249	.308	.382	.304
Chris Taylor	501	8.0%	23.0%	.084	.336	.258	.323	.342	.300
Austin Jackson	659	8.3%	25.0%	.115	.321	.245	.309	.360	.299
Mike Zunino	491	5.7%	29.3%	.166	.276	.217	.279	.383	.290
Dustin Ackley	598	8.0%	17.9%	.130	.289	.249	.311	.379	.305
Seth Smith	458	10.3%	22.1%	.151	.298	.245	.328	.396	.317
Shawn O’Malley	421	6.7%	20.4%	.079	.278	.223	.283	.302	.263
Tyler Marlette	377	5.0%	24.4%	.093	.297	.231	.273	.324	.267
D.J. Peterson	463	5.4%	27.0%	.138	.293	.233	.276	.371	.289
Justin Ruggiano	359	7.8%	28.7%	.154	.310	.237	.302	.391	.307
Logan Morrison	432	8.6%	17.8%	.159	.269	.242	.313	.401	.314
Jesus Sucre	252	2.8%	16.3%	.055	.276	.233	.257	.288	.240
John Hicks	369	4.3%	23.3%	.084	.270	.213	.253	.297	.246
Jack Marder	304	4.9%	21.4%	.095	.285	.230	.290	.325	.274
Jabari Blash	442	8.6%	36.0%	.147	.326	.219	.299	.366	.296
Ketel Marte	575	3.3%	17.2%	.071	.292	.246	.270	.317	.257
Mike Dowd	269	3.0%	19.3%	.060	.267	.220	.254	.280	.236
Patrick Kivlehan	529	5.3%	28.7%	.106	.311	.230	.278	.336	.275
Willie Bloomquist	149	4.0%	16.1%	.071	.328	.279	.311	.350	.285
Jack Reinheimer	512	5.3%	19.1%	.053	.293	.236	.283	.289	.258
Carlos Rivero	484	5.2%	25.8%	.093	.301	.231	.275	.324	.267
Austin Wilson	318	5.7%	25.5%	.134	.286	.227	.287	.361	.285
Nate Tenbrink	253	8.3%	34.8%	.115	.311	.208	.282	.323	.273
Ji-Man Choi	389	9.0%	19.8%	.123	.280	.235	.315	.358	.298
Steven Baron	296	4.1%	28.7%	.058	.274	.196	.230	.254	.218
Stefen Romero	458	3.7%	21.4%	.143	.285	.242	.280	.385	.289
James Jones	502	5.6%	25.1%	.089	.314	.236	.281	.325	.272
Jesus Montero	441	6.1%	21.3%	.137	.288	.246	.293	.383	.294
Endy Chavez	335	5.1%	11.9%	.066	.288	.258	.297	.324	.265
Julio Morban	338	5.3%	34.9%	.099	.344	.225	.270	.324	.263
Xavier Nady	259	5.4%	23.9%	.100	.269	.217	.266	.317	.260
Gabriel Guerrero	581	3.8%	31.2%	.096	.331	.237	.266	.333	.264
Leury Bonilla	300	5.0%	24.7%	.051	.284	.211	.253	.262	.224
Jordy Lara	493	4.9%	24.3%	.111	.284	.226	.268	.337	.268
Burt Reynolds	377	4.5%	44.0%	.105	.292	.169	.223	.274	.223

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Robinson Cano	663	6.4	134	2	5.3	Charlie Gehringer
Kyle Seager	658	5.1	117	2	4.3	Todd Zeile
Nelson Cruz	612	5.1	118	-1	2.3	Jermaine Dye
Brad Miller	555	4.2	98	-2	2.3	Dick McAuliffe
Chris Taylor	501	4.2	92	2	2.3	Frankie Gustine
Austin Jackson	659	4.0	93	0	2.1	Dan Gladden
Mike Zunino	491	3.6	89	-2	1.8	John Buck
Dustin Ackley	598	4.3	98	5	1.8	Terrence Long
Seth Smith	458	4.6	108	-2	1.1	Bruce Campbell
Shawn O’Malley	421	3.1	69	2	0.9	Zach Sorensen
Tyler Marlette	377	3.1	72	-1	0.7	Tom Pagnozzi
D.J. Peterson	463	3.7	85	-3	0.7	Ty Wigginton
Justin Ruggiano	359	4.1	98	0	0.6	Preston Wilson
Logan Morrison	432	4.5	104	-2	0.5	J.T. Snow
Jesus Sucre	252	2.6	57	5	0.5	Moses Zucker
John Hicks	369	2.6	58	3	0.5	Jose Lobaton
Jack Marder	304	3.3	77	1	0.5	Pat Osborn
Jabari Blash	442	3.7	91	-2	0.2	Denny Gonzalez
Ketel Marte	575	3.1	69	-2	0.2	Alfredo Griffin
Mike Dowd	269	2.4	54	2	0.1	Jose Hernandez
Patrick Kivlehan	529	3.3	76	-4	0.1	Tony Perezchica
Willie Bloomquist	149	3.9	91	-4	0.1	Jose Vizcaino
Jack Reinheimer	512	2.9	66	-3	0.1	Omar Infante
Carlos Rivero	484	3.0	73	-1	0.0	John Hotchkiss
Austin Wilson	318	3.5	86	-1	0.0	Marcus Thames
Nate Tenbrink	253	3.1	74	-2	0.0	Jim Chamblee
Ji-Man Choi	389	3.8	94	-2	-0.1	Mark Sweeney
Steven Baron	296	2.0	40	4	-0.1	Jose Lobaton
Stefen Romero	458	3.7	90	-3	-0.1	Alex Ramirez
James Jones	502	3.4	75	-8	-0.2	Nathan Haynes
Jesus Montero	441	4.0	93	-3	-0.4	Reggie Montgomery
Endy Chavez	335	3.2	79	-2	-0.6	Jim Eisenreich
Julio Morban	338	3.1	71	-1	-0.6	Shawn Jeter
Xavier Nady	259	3.0	68	-1	-0.6	Brian Jordan
Gabriel Guerrero	581	3.1	72	3	-0.6	Mark Smith
Leury Bonilla	300	2.1	49	0	-0.9	Johnnie LeMaster
Jordy Lara	493	3.1	74	-2	-1.3	Julio Zuleta
Burt Reynolds	377	1.9	43	0	-2.3	Tom Skerritt

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	K	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Felix Hernandez	R	29	32	32	217.3	224	46	15	180	68	64
Hisashi Iwakuma	R	34	27	27	170.0	143	29	19	154	67	63
James Paxton	L	26	23	22	113.0	91	41	10	107	51	48
Taijuan Walker	R	22	24	22	128.7	111	47	14	121	62	58
Danny Farquhar	R	28	59	0	70.3	81	25	5	58	25	23
J.A. Happ	L	32	25	23	130.3	111	49	16	128	66	62
Roenis Elias	L	26	25	25	139.7	114	57	16	137	72	67
Charlie Furbush	L	29	65	0	51.7	61	17	5	42	19	18
Fernando Rodney	R	38	60	0	58.0	65	27	4	49	22	21
Carson Smith	R	25	51	0	56.3	52	21	4	50	22	21
Tom Wilhelmsen	R	31	61	0	70.3	67	33	6	58	29	27
Mike Kickham	L	26	29	25	140.7	117	64	14	141	74	69
Danny Hultzen	L	25	13	13	62.0	53	36	5	58	31	29
Tyler Olson	L	25	23	20	110.3	73	33	12	116	58	54
Dominic Leone	R	23	56	0	66.0	63	25	6	59	28	26
Chris Young	R	36	23	22	122.7	81	45	17	123	65	61
Sam Gaviglio	R	25	20	19	107.0	77	39	12	113	57	53
Yoervis Medina	R	26	69	0	65.3	67	33	5	56	28	26
Erasmo Ramirez	R	25	28	24	140.3	99	44	18	147	76	71
Mayckol Guaipe	R	24	42	0	57.3	48	11	7	56	26	24
Todd Coffey	R	34	30	0	29.3	23	12	3	29	14	13
Jordan Pries	R	25	22	21	115.7	76	42	14	122	65	61
David Rollins	L	25	26	17	94.0	72	42	12	97	54	50
Joe Beimel	L	38	40	0	34.0	22	14	4	35	18	17
Mike MacDougal	R	38	19	0	22.0	17	14	2	22	13	12
Mark Lowe	R	32	42	0	45.0	40	21	6	44	24	22
Lucas Luetge	L	28	57	0	62.7	54	30	7	60	33	31
Anthony Fernandez	L	25	16	16	84.3	51	37	12	94	55	51
Zach Miner	R	33	27	5	57.0	30	29	8	65	37	35
Stephen Landazuri	R	23	22	22	105.0	77	43	18	112	66	62
Forrest Snow	R	26	29	11	82.3	60	43	12	88	52	49
Edgar Olmos	L	25	48	0	64.0	45	36	8	67	39	36
Victor Sanchez	R	20	22	22	117.0	71	32	20	132	75	70
Justin Germano	R	32	24	22	137.3	75	32	24	162	89	83
Andrew Carraway	R	28	26	23	121.7	62	45	18	141	80	75
Chance Ruffin	R	26	34	9	80.0	49	36	13	91	56	52
Tyler Pike	L	21	25	25	99.3	67	80	15	107	74	69

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Felix Hernandez	217.3	878	25.5%	5.2%	.281	2.65	2.70	70	71
Hisashi Iwakuma	170.0	693	20.6%	4.2%	.270	3.34	3.43	88	90
James Paxton	113.0	487	18.7%	8.4%	.285	3.82	3.87	100	102
Taijuan Walker	128.7	554	20.0%	8.5%	.285	4.06	4.09	107	107
Danny Farquhar	70.3	294	27.6%	8.5%	.295	2.94	2.89	77	76
J.A. Happ	130.3	568	19.5%	8.6%	.287	4.28	4.23	112	111
Roenis Elias	139.7	613	18.6%	9.3%	.290	4.32	4.40	113	115
Charlie Furbush	51.7	214	28.5%	7.9%	.289	3.14	3.11	82	82
Fernando Rodney	58.0	250	26.0%	10.8%	.296	3.26	3.17	86	83
Carson Smith	56.3	240	21.7%	8.8%	.288	3.36	3.47	88	91
Tom Wilhelmsen	70.3	302	22.2%	10.9%	.268	3.45	3.65	91	96
Mike Kickham	140.7	627	18.7%	10.2%	.299	4.41	4.29	116	112
Danny Hultzen	62.0	280	18.9%	12.9%	.291	4.21	4.44	110	116
Tyler Olson	110.3	480	15.2%	6.9%	.292	4.40	4.32	115	113
Dominic Leone	66.0	282	22.3%	8.9%	.286	3.55	3.62	93	95
Chris Young	122.7	536	15.1%	8.4%	.272	4.48	4.75	118	125
Sam Gaviglio	107.0	473	16.3%	8.2%	.298	4.46	4.42	117	116
Yoervis Medina	65.3	285	23.5%	11.6%	.292	3.58	3.62	94	95
Erasmo Ramirez	140.3	612	16.2%	7.2%	.291	4.55	4.51	119	118
Mayckol Guaipe	57.3	239	20.1%	4.6%	.288	3.77	3.81	99	100
Todd Coffey	29.3	129	17.8%	9.3%	.292	3.99	4.26	105	112
Jordan Pries	115.7	511	14.9%	8.2%	.289	4.75	4.67	125	122
David Rollins	94.0	421	17.1%	10.0%	.293	4.79	4.79	126	126
Joe Beimel	34.0	151	14.6%	9.3%	.282	4.50	4.46	118	117
Mike MacDougal	22.0	102	16.7%	13.7%	.299	4.91	4.85	129	127
Mark Lowe	45.0	200	20.0%	10.5%	.288	4.40	4.39	115	115
Lucas Luetge	62.7	278	19.4%	10.8%	.288	4.45	4.33	117	114
Anthony Fernandez	84.3	384	13.3%	9.6%	.294	5.44	5.30	143	139
Zach Miner	57.0	265	11.3%	10.9%	.294	5.53	5.62	145	147
Stephen Landazuri	105.0	470	16.4%	9.1%	.288	5.31	5.33	139	140
Forrest Snow	82.3	378	15.9%	11.4%	.295	5.36	5.32	141	139
Edgar Olmos	64.0	295	15.3%	12.2%	.292	5.06	5.21	133	137
Victor Sanchez	117.0	515	13.8%	6.2%	.291	5.38	5.17	141	136
Justin Germano	137.3	606	12.4%	5.3%	.296	5.44	5.22	143	137
Andrew Carraway	121.7	551	11.3%	8.2%	.293	5.55	5.35	146	140
Chance Ruffin	80.0	367	13.4%	9.8%	.297	5.85	5.63	153	148
Tyler Pike	99.3	485	13.8%	16.5%	.291	6.25	6.41	164	168

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Felix Hernandez	217.3	9.28	1.91	0.62	137	5.6	Mike Mussina
Hisashi Iwakuma	170.0	7.57	1.54	1.01	109	2.8	Scott Sanderson
James Paxton	113.0	7.25	3.27	0.80	95	1.2	Brandon Claussen
Taijuan Walker	128.7	7.76	3.29	0.98	89	0.9	Freddy Garcia
Danny Farquhar	70.3	10.37	3.20	0.64	123	0.8	Bobby Castillo
J.A. Happ	130.3	7.67	3.38	1.11	85	0.6	Bob McClure
Roenis Elias	139.7	7.34	3.67	1.03	84	0.6	Ed Vosberg
Charlie Furbush	51.7	10.62	2.96	0.87	115	0.5	George Sherrill
Fernando Rodney	58.0	10.09	4.19	0.62	111	0.4	Rudy Seanez
Carson Smith	56.3	8.31	3.36	0.64	108	0.4	Wayne Nix
Tom Wilhelmsen	70.3	8.58	4.22	0.77	105	0.4	Marc Wilkins
Mike Kickham	140.7	7.48	4.09	0.90	82	0.3	Lance Caraccioli
Danny Hultzen	62.0	7.69	5.23	0.73	86	0.3	Matt Miller
Tyler Olson	110.3	5.96	2.69	0.98	82	0.3	Hilly Hathaway
Dominic Leone	66.0	8.59	3.41	0.82	102	0.3	Josh Kinney
Chris Young	122.7	5.94	3.30	1.25	81	0.2	Steve Trachsel
Sam Gaviglio	107.0	6.48	3.28	1.01	81	0.2	Brian Allard
Yoervis Medina	65.3	9.23	4.55	0.69	101	0.2	Mark Acre
Erasmo Ramirez	140.3	6.35	2.82	1.15	79	0.1	David Pauley
Mayckol Guaipe	57.3	7.54	1.73	1.10	96	0.1	Dan Giese
Todd Coffey	29.3	7.06	3.69	0.92	91	-0.1	Milo Candini
Jordan Pries	115.7	5.91	3.27	1.09	76	-0.2	Zach McClellan
David Rollins	94.0	6.89	4.02	1.15	76	-0.3	Mike Matthews
Joe Beimel	34.0	5.82	3.71	1.06	80	-0.3	Boom-Boom Beck
Mike MacDougal	22.0	6.95	5.73	0.82	74	-0.3	Pete Appleton
Mark Lowe	45.0	8.00	4.20	1.20	82	-0.3	Jason Bullard
Lucas Luetge	62.7	7.75	4.31	1.00	81	-0.5	Carl Schutz
Anthony Fernandez	84.3	5.44	3.95	1.28	66	-0.9	Tommy Phelps
Zach Miner	57.0	4.74	4.58	1.26	65	-0.9	Mike Sullivan
Stephen Landazuri	105.0	6.60	3.69	1.54	68	-0.9	Steve Rogers
Forrest Snow	82.3	6.56	4.70	1.31	68	-1.0	Paul Morse
Edgar Olmos	64.0	6.33	5.06	1.13	71	-1.0	Jason Hill
Victor Sanchez	117.0	5.46	2.46	1.54	67	-1.2	Robert Averette
Justin Germano	137.3	4.92	2.10	1.57	67	-1.5	Dave Johnson
Andrew Carraway	121.7	4.59	3.33	1.33	65	-1.5	Kip Bouknight
Chance Ruffin	80.0	5.51	4.05	1.46	62	-1.5	Kevin Vent
Tyler Pike	99.3	6.07	7.25	1.36	58	-2.1	Sebern Wright

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.