Archive for February, 2015

Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 2/5/15

10:46
Eno Sarris: be here soon. feeling like some hip hop today

10:46
{“author”:”uNiqueTaMere”}:

12:00
Comment From Guest
Missy Elliot owned that halftime show y/y

12:01
Eno Sarris: Well my boy was mesmerized by Katy Perry and the sharks and lions but yeah Missy did pretty well.

12:02
Comment From Cronut Burger
Does Hamilton’s injury equate to an uptick in CJ Cron’s fantasy value? Given the current power drought, is he worth gambling more than a few bucks at the auction?

12:02
Eno Sarris: I think he’ll basically full time DH to begin the season, and if you value him at like .260/15 I think you’ll own him and there’s a little upside left.

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Pre-Spring Divisional Outlook: NL East

Throughout the early stages of the calendar year, I’ve been taking a pre-spring training look at each of the six MLB divisions from a slightly different perspective. Utilizing batted ball data, we’re going back over the 2014 season, attempting to calculate each club’s true talent level. Making adjustments for teams’ offensive and defensive K and BB rates and team defense, each team’s true talent 2014 won-lost record is calculated. Then, we’ll take a look at the current Steamer projections for 2015, evaluate key player comings and goings, and determine whether clubs are constructed to be able to handle the inevitable pitfalls along the way that could render such projections irrelevant. The third installment of this series features the NL East. Read the rest of this entry »


The How and The Why of Michael Fiers

We can say some things about how Mike Fiers went astray in 2013, and how changes to his pitching mix, pitches, and spot on the rubber contributed to his return to relevance in 2014. Those things show up just by looking at the different stats and heat maps we have at our disposal. The harder thing to figure out (if it’s at all possible) is *why* these changes worked.

First, the how.

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Georgia Supreme Court Hears Legal Challenge to New Braves Stadium

When the Atlanta Braves announced 15 months ago that the team would be moving to a new stadium in nearby Cobb County in 2017, the news surprised a number of people. The announcement was unexpected in part because the Braves’ current stadium, Turner Field, is less than 20 years old.

The news was also surprising, though, because it largely seemed to come out of the blue. There had been relatively little speculation that the Braves would be building a new stadium – let alone moving out of the Atlanta city limits – ahead of the formal announcement in November 2013. This was due in no small part to the fact Cobb County and the Braves negotiated the $397 million in public funding for SunTrust Park largely behind closed doors, without public input.

The lack of a public referendum for the stadium project is the basis of three legal challenges the Georgia Supreme Court heard earlier this week. If successful, these appeals could not only delay construction of the Braves’ new stadium, but could potentially disrupt the project’s financing.

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Kris Bryant’s One Offensive Question Mark

Pretty often, we get accused of overvaluing young players and prospects. The line of thinking is that we don’t properly appreciate the chances of a player flaming out and failing to accomplish anything of consequence. Yet, I don’t think we’ve ever been accused of overvaluing Kris Bryant. Around Bryant, there’s developed a consensus. Kiley ranked him first among Cubs prospects, obviously. Keith Law ranked him first in baseball. ZiPS is in love with Bryant, projecting a .364 wOBA. And Steamer, too, projects a .364 wOBA, exceeding its projections for Adrian Beltre and Robinson Cano. The No. 1 ZiPS comp is Evan Longoria. Bryant has yet to play in the major leagues, but already he’s considered a huge reason why the 2015 Cubs ought to contend for a playoff spot. He probably won’t be on the team out of camp, but he should be locked in before Memorial Day.

What I don’t intend to do is try to convince you that Bryant is going to bust. I don’t think Bryant is going to bust. He is uncommonly good, and uncommonly powerful, with power to all fields that comes out of a shorter swing than you’d expect. Yet there is one thing about Bryant worth considering as hype continues to build. He’s not a perfect prospect; there’s no such thing as a perfect prospect. Every prospect has a flaw, and Bryant’s is enough to raise the eyebrows. Think of it this way: if Bryant were to disappoint, why might that be? It seems we could already have a sign.

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Opposition Quality Seems Hardly a Factor

Remember when you thought baseball statistics were easy? Now, analytically, a statistic is hardly worth anything if it’s left unadjusted. You know all the adjustments that go into numbers. Adjustments for ballpark environment. Adjustments for era. Sometimes adjustments for league. As far as WAR is concerned, there are adjustments for position. There’s one adjustment we still don’t make, though: that’s adjustment for quality of opposition. In theory, if there were a pitcher who only ever faced the best teams, and a pitcher who only ever faced the worst teams, that wouldn’t be accounted for. That’s something you’d have to figure out yourself.

Related to this, James Shields has obvious selling points: first and foremost, he’s been good. He’s been durable, and he’s experienced, and he’s pitched in the playoffs, and everything. Then there’s one other thing I don’t think has gotten much attention: Shields has, relative to the average, faced a fairly tough slate of opponents. In the past, I’ve manually calculated average opponent wRC+. Baseball Prospectus has its own version, oppRPA+, and the big advantage of oppRPA+ is it’s already been calculated for me. The average, as usual, is 100. Last year, Shields’ opponents came in at 105. The year before that, 105. The year before that, 105.

Seems like this should be a good thing for Shields’ market; seems like, if you adjust for this, Shields’ numbers would get a boost. But how much does this matter, really? Coming up soon, a first attempt at an answer.

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Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 2/4/15

11:47
Dave Cameron: It’s Wednesday, so let’s chat about… James Shields, I guess? Or maybe my get-rid-of-the-draft proposal, which you can read here: http://www.foxsports.com/ml…

12:00
Dave Cameron: Alright, let’s do this thing.

12:01
Comment From Vslyke
Do you think Mike Minor gets dealt at the deadline if he rebounds? He’s older than most of the Braves staff and will be a FA after the 2017 season.

12:01
Dave Cameron: I’d imagine pretty much any Brave not named Freeman or Simmons having a good year could be trade bait.

12:01
Comment From Kris
Why not lump everyone together and allow the draft picks to be traded among teams while keeping the slot’s in place?

12:02
Dave Cameron: If the function of the draft can be replicated without the process of assigning picks — and it can be — then the picks are useless, and come with negative side effects like we saw with Brady Aiken this summer.

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FG on Fox: Who Needs a Draft?

Yesterday, Major League Baseball officially declared Yoan Moncada — perhaps the most coveted player to defect from Cuba in the last few years — free to sign with any Major League club. The bidding is expected to be intense, with the Yankees, Red Sox, and Dodgers tabbed as the early favorites. Given the tax that will be levied on on the team that signs Moncada, the high-revenue clubs are at a significant advantage, and Moncada’s signing will likely be used as evidence of the need for an international draft.

In his conversation with Ken Rosenthal last week, Commissioner Manfred publicly supported such an idea, stating that his “long haul goal” would be “to get to an international draft.” With the big money clubs blowing up the league’s system for signing young international free agents, an overhaul of the process is inevitable. But while the draft has become the de facto method for sports leagues to distribute incoming young talent — under the guise of competitive balance, but with the primary goal of holding down acquisition costs — I’d like to suggest that Major League Baseball go the other direction instead.

The logistics of incorporating international players into a draft are problematic, which is why baseball settled on its current recommended bonus system instead. And there is merit to the structure that the league created; if you have various spending allocations in place, you don’t actually need to go through the process of draft positions. The best players want the most money, so by simply creating a system where some teams have more money to spend than others, you can funnel incoming talent to certain types of teams even without handing out specific draft positions.

The problem lies in the execution of MLB’s international system, as the bonus pools are akin to speed limits instead of actual barriers. Because teams have calculated that Moncada’s talent is worthy of paying the penalties associated with blowing their budgets out of the water, the limits are functionally useless. But if the limits were firm caps, and teams were unable to exceed their pool allocations, then we wouldn’t be facing a situation where the richest teams in baseball were flexing their financial muscles to add an elite talent while the have-nots sit on the sidelines wishing for a more level playing field.

So what if there was no draft? Instead, what if we just lumped all new players — foreign or domestic — into a single acquisition system where each player was free to sigh with the team of their choice, only with firm spending caps in place to ensure that young talent flows more freely to clubs who can’t compete on Major League payroll alone? In other words, a team’s talent acquisition budget would be inversely tied to their Major League payroll; the more you spend on big leaguers, the less you get to spend on prospects, and vice versa.

Read the rest on Just a Bit Outside.


2015 ZiPS Projections – Texas Rangers

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Texas Rangers. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Oakland / San Diego / San Francisco / St. Louis / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Washington.

Batters
One doesn’t wake up every morning to find articles in the morning dailies arguing on behalf of Adrian Beltre’s Hall of Fame candidacy, and yet all indications are that, even were he to retire this second, he’d be a deserving inductee. Both his career WAR and also JAWS figures currently reside above the threshold for the average Hall of Fame entrant. ZiPS projects him to add four more wins to his resume in 2015.

Mike Petriello has already written this week about the Arizona Diamondbacks and their curiously shallow catcher depth chart. A properly motivated individual would probably have some luck composing a similar piece regarding the Rangers’ left-field spot. Jake Smolinski (468 PA, 0.1 WAR) is the favorite to earn the starting role there, while Michael Choice (559 PA, -0.4 WAR) is another candidate.

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Ken Giles: Because the Phillies Deserve a Bright Spot

When we talk about the Philadelphia Phillies around here these days, it’s rarely in a positive light. It’s usually about wondering what they’re doing with Cole Hamels, or how Ryan Howard is completely unmovable, or just generally wondering how many years it might take to return the team to relevance. They’ve brought this on themselves with their direction — or lack of it — over the past few years. When you look at the fact that they have six different positions ranking in the bottom three in our 2015 projections, you really start to understand just how bad this team is going to be.

But it’s not all bad. It can’t be. Even the Phillies are going to have a bright spot. Since I’m in a charitable mood, and since there’s very little happening in baseball right now, and since we haven’t really talked about him yet, let’s focus today on Ken Giles, who very well might be the team’s closer this year should Jonathan Papelbon get moved.

Let’s start with some small sample sizes to output a ranking that is technically accurate, yet obviously flawed: Read the rest of this entry »