Archive for March, 2015

2015 Positional Power Rankings: Shortstop

What do we have here? For an explanation of this series, please read this introductory post. As noted in that introduction, the data below is a hybrid projection of the ZIPS and Steamer systems, with playing time determined through depth charts created by our team of authors. The rankings are based on aggregate projected WAR for each team at a given position.

Yes, we know WAR is imperfect and there is more to player value than is wrapped up in that single projection, but for the purposes of talking about a team’s strengths and weaknesses, it is a useful tool. Also, the author writing this post did not move your team down ten spots in order to make you angry. We don’t hate your team. I promise.

It’s time now to continue the rankings of power being conducted by this site. Today, we turn our attention to shortstops. We begin by turning our attention, specifically, to this graph:

SS Graph

Some teams (Colorado) have very good shortstops; others (Miami) have less good shortstops. Every team has shortstops. In what follows, the author examines how much power the shortstops possess and then ranks them according to that power.

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Effectively Wild Episode 642: The Gambling, Brackets, and Bonds Edition

Ben and Sam answer listener emails about players out of position, pace-of-play rules, Bonds vs. Clemens, gambling, and more.


FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 3/24/15

6:02
Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! 9 pm ET, with me and possibly Jeff. Get your questions in the queue now. See you soon!

9:01
Paul Swydan: One second!

9:03
Jeff Zimmerman: Waiting on Paul

9:03
Paul Swydan: Sorry!

9:03
Comment From daneyko
Mat Latos: Over/Under 3.30 ERA. Why?

9:04
Jeff Zimmerman: Over, the loss of velo is troubling.

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Duke’s Michael Matuella Rediscovers Premium Stuff

The primary concern that scouts have about Michael Matuella is durability. So when the Duke righthander was scratched from making his second start of the season due to a forearm strain, it was a setback that led the Blue Devils training staff to keep him on strict pitch counts over his next few appearances. On Friday night against Pittsburgh, however, the reins were loosened and he showed evaluators the form that made him a candidate to be a top-five draft pick before the season began.

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Brian Dozier, Twins Agree to a Safe Contract

On the heels of contract extensions for Christian Yelich and Adam Eaton, Brian Dozier and the Minnesota Twins got in on the action, agreeing to a four-year deal worth $20 million. Brian Dozier is one year further along in his career and one year closer to arbitration than Yelich and Eaton. Looking strictly at the numbers and comparing them to the nearly $50 million guaranteed to Yelich and the $23.5 million guaranteed to Eaton, Dozier’s numbers initially look a little light given his service time. However, unlike the deals for Yelich and Eaton, Dozier is not giving away any free agent years. The deal is a safe one for both the Twins and Dozier, and it is a throwback to extensions that have not been common in recent years.

For players who have yet to reach arbitration, the typical extension buys out one or more free agent years. Last spring, three players who were on year away from arbitration, like Dozier, signed contract extensions.

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2015 Positional Power Rankings: Second Base

What do we have here? For an explanation of this series, please read this introductory post. As noted in that introduction, the data below is a hybrid projection of the ZIPS and Steamer systems, with playing time determined through depth charts created by our team of authors. The rankings are based on aggregate projected WAR for each team at a given position.

Yes, we know WAR is imperfect and there is more to player value than is wrapped up in that single projection, but for the purposes of talking about a team’s strengths and weaknesses, it is a useful tool. Also, the author writing this post did not move your team down ten spots in order to make you angry. We don’t hate your team. I promise.

Positional power rankings! Second base! Let’s do this. Here comes a graph of projected team WAR:

2bWAR

Well, would ya look at that. Robinson Cano is still good at baseball. For the third consecutive year, Robinson Cano’s team lands atop the second base rankings of power. There’s a pretty defined top three, a pretty defined top 10, and then the rest. You can see that. Let’s talk about it.

Wait — really quick before we begin, the disclaimer: decimal points of WAR really don’t matter. Team X with 3.0 WAR isn’t demonstrably better than Team Y at 2.7 WAR. It’s less about an exact order and more about visualizing, roughly, where each team falls within the landscape of the league. Okay, now with that in mind, let’s begin.
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The Case of the Curious Diamondbacks

In general, most baseball organizations are headed in the same general direction. The idea that you have to choose between stats or scouts is dead, and almost everyone is now just compiling as much good information as they can. While it was oddly notable for teams to have a “stat guy” 15 years ago, it’s now oddly notable when a team only has one. Teams might not weigh all the information the same way, and it certainly doesn’t all filter up from the nerds to the GM at the same rate, but mostly, everyone is generally doing things the same way now.

Except the Diamondbacks. They don’t just march to the beat of their own drum; they’re not even sure drums qualify as a musical instrument. This isn’t even about hiring a guy with a veterinary background to run their analytics department, or Dave Stewart’s months-old comments about the D’Backs being a “true baseball team”; their opinions just seem to run counter to the rest of the sport at just about every single turn.

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Kiley McDaniel Prospects Chat – 3/24/15

12:08
Kiley McDaniel: Kiley here, just wrapping up some editing on the debut piece from one of our new prospect writers, who saw Matuella back to normal last weekend

12:10
Comment From neal
i really hope this aiken thing doesn’t end up being horribly depressing

12:10
Kiley McDaniel: Yeah the indications are that it’s headed that way. Radio silence from his camp, as you’d guess. Teams and media and public will figure out what this is, hopefully just arm soreness, when the Aiken family wants to tell us.

12:12
Comment From Prospect Guy
Hey Kiley! You had Albies and Margot ranked 34 and 35, respectively. I’m curious what you see as Albies ceiling (AVG/HR/SB) vs. Margot. Also, earliest MLB debut for each is 2018?

12:13
Kiley McDaniel: SB is hard to call as that’s more a choice than a direct math problem from raw speed. That said, at these two links, I grade all the tools and then at these next two links I break down in more depth along with their projected path/time to the big leagues

http://www.fangraphs.com/st…
http://www.fangraphs.com/st…

http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…
http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

12:13
Comment From Adam
What would be a realistic expectation for what Rodon can do as a ML starter this year?

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2015 Positional Power Rankings: First Base

What do we have here? For an explanation of this series, please read this introductory post. As noted in that introduction, the data below is a hybrid projection of the ZIPS and Steamer systems, with playing time determined through depth charts created by our team of authors. The rankings are based on aggregate projected WAR for each team at a given position.

Yes, we know WAR is imperfect and there is more to player value than is wrapped up in that single projection, but for the purposes of talking about a team’s strengths and weaknesses, it is a useful tool. Also, the author writing this post did not move your team down ten spots in order to make you angry. We don’t hate your team. I promise.

Time to rate the sluggers! Your first base depth chart in bar form:

FirstBaseDepth

Oh Philadelphia. Our heart goes out to your slugging slugger and the slugs he used to slug. Maybe your team actually would be better without Ryan Howard, though. Let’s focus on the positive, at least at first. The two studs at the top have a lot going for them.

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Danny Santana’s Upcoming Offensive Collapse

It’s that time of year, when baseball media members offer their respective takes on players who will either break out or break down this season. Most of the time those impressions are based upon a combination of objective and subjective criteria, from the “eye test,” to the numbers, to gut feel — and yes, even to spring training performance. I’m going to go on record stating that I have never, even been so sure about a player’s performance declining from the previous season as I am about Minnesota Twins’ shortstop Danny Santana. Read the rest of this entry »